地产现售能怎么推进？20250604 摘要 限售政策在核心城市预计不会"一刀切"全面实施，更可能采取逐步推 进的方式，这与当前房地产市场，特别是核心城市的实际情况相符。投 资者需密切关注政策动向，研判市场传言与实际政策之间的差异，制定 相应的投资策略。 若实行"一刀切"现房销售，将显著延长开发商的资金周转周期，从一 年一次变为两到三年一次，增加资金成本，削弱其土地出价能力，并可 能导致开发商调整拿地策略，对土地市场产生深远影响。 开发商可能通过对存量盘打折促销来缓解现金流压力，这可能导致新房 供给结构性变化，核心区域或中心区因供给减少可能面临价格上涨压力， 而外围区域则可能因库存积压而效果不明显。 全国土拍金额累计同比增长 14%，但面积累计同比下降 10%，表明土 地市场结构性分化明显。一二线城市拿地投资占比接近 8 成，高溢价地 块项目频出，这些城市的意见对政策走向具有重要影响。 限售消息发酵以来，开发商担忧客户等待现房，可能导致郊区房产打折 促销，进而影响周边二手房价格，多数城市二手房价格呈现阴跌状态， 市场信心亟需呵护。 Q&A 限售政策对市场和投资者有哪些影响？ 限售政策在核心城市不会全面"一刀切" ...

Core Insights - Zhejiang has launched the first batch of special bonds to support the acquisition of existing residential properties, totaling 1.653 billion yuan, aimed at constructing affordable housing in eight projects across Huzhou, Wenzhou, and Jiaxing [1][2] Group 1: Special Bonds Overview - A total of 16.53 billion yuan in special bonds has been issued in Zhejiang, with eight government bonds totaling 552.67 billion yuan, all being new bonds with various maturities ranging from 3 to 30 years [1] - Three specific bonds are designated for the acquisition of existing residential properties to be converted into affordable housing, with an average financing of approximately 200 million yuan per project [1] Group 2: Innovative Policy Measures - The initiative reflects an innovative approach to using special bonds for acquiring existing properties, expanding the policy tools available for addressing real estate inventory issues [2] - The focus on third and fourth-tier cities for property acquisition highlights the strategy to tackle significant inventory challenges in these areas, where the average sales-to-inventory ratio was 30.5 as of April 2025, significantly higher than in first and second-tier cities [2] Group 3: Synergistic Effects - The introduction of special bonds for both land acquisition and housing is expected to create a synergistic effect, optimizing land allocation and housing supply [3] - The initial scale of the bond issuance is controlled to accumulate experience while mitigating potential risks, with the possibility of expanding the bond allocation in the future as project operations mature [3]

当前，各地正积极用好地方政府专项债券（以下简称"专项债"），为房地产领域去库存、稳市场提供资 金支持。 记者注意到，各地发行地方政府专项债券用于收回收购存量闲置土地工作推进速度正在加快。5月23 日，四川省财政厅发布《关于发行2025年四川省政府专项债券（十七至二十四期）有关事项的通知》， 明确本批专项债将于5月30日发行。 "当前，四川、广东、湖南、福建等省份均已发行用于收回收购存量闲置土地的专项债。"中指研究院政 策研究总监陈文静表示，上述省份均为专项债"自审自发"试点地区。预计已公示拟收回收购地块的其他 地区将参考借鉴已发行专项债省份的做法，加快发债节奏，推动收回收购存量闲置土地工作落实。 在为收回收购存量闲置土地工作提供资金支持的同时，专项债的应用范围目前已拓展至收购存量商品房 工作。 在《2025年四川省政府专项债券（十七至二十四期）项目清单》（以下简称《项目清单》）中，包含了 成都市、自贡市、宜宾市、泸州市等地的40余个收回收购存量闲置土地项目，涉及金额超50亿元。 "利用专项债等财政手段收回收购存量闲置土地、收购存量商品房，都可以为存量房地产的去化提供更 大支撑，促进风险的防范化解，巩固房地产市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry has entered a critical phase of inventory reduction, with a pressing need to activate existing land resources as the market stabilizes in 2025. The central government has emphasized accelerating the collection of idle land through special bonds, granting local governments autonomy in pricing and usage [3][8]. Group 1: Inventory Status - The industry is in a deep inventory reduction phase, with the broad inventory scale in typical cities reaching 3.2 times that of the narrow inventory, and the broad digestion cycle generally exceeding 5 years [3][4]. - The narrow inventory has decreased by approximately 9% since its peak in September 2024, but the broad inventory remains high, with a slight increase of 0.7% due to the sale of quality land [9][10]. - The total area of proposed land for collection has reached 6,565 hectares, which could lead to a 54% increase in new home sales in the first four months of 2025 [4][35]. Group 2: City-Level Inventory Disparities - Significant disparities exist in potential inventory across cities, with Chongqing, Zhengzhou, and Shenyang facing urgent challenges in land collection, as their potential inventory exceeds 1,000 hectares [4][20]. - High inventory cities like Chongqing and Zhengzhou have over 70% of undeveloped land, necessitating accelerated collection efforts and exploration of converting ongoing projects into affordable housing [4][23]. - Cities with lower inventory pressures, such as Beijing and Hefei, have a potential digestion cycle of only 1 year, indicating a healthier supply-demand relationship [20][37]. Group 3: Collection Strategies and Challenges - The collection of idle land is primarily focused on third- and fourth-tier cities, with 84% of the proposed collection area concentrated in these regions [5][39]. - The collection plans are expected to significantly reduce the broad inventory digestion cycle in cities like Zhengzhou and Kunming by over 1 year [6][39]. - The implementation of special bonds for land collection needs to accelerate, with a focus on transparency and precise identification of inventory pressure in different city sectors to enhance targeted policies [6][37]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate industry is at a pivotal point for inventory management, with the rapid implementation of special bond collection policies and deepening supply-demand reforms contributing to market stabilization [36][44]. - The core challenge remains the high level of broad inventory, with the special bond collection serving as a key tool to address this issue [37][38]. - Continuous efforts are required to expand the scope of land collection in high-inventory cities, while also focusing on high-traffic areas to restore market health [39][40].

CRIC披露最新数据显示，截止2024年末TOP100房企土储总量收缩明显：总土储货值25.17万亿元，同比下降13%；总土储建面15.73亿平米，同比下降 12%。 具体到房企来看，百强房企中有96家房企总土储货值下降，降幅超过20%的房企数量占比达到15%。 不过，由于房企销售降幅大于土储总量收缩的速度，房企仍然面临较大的存货去化压力。百强房企截止2024年末的土储货值去化周期加权值以6.93年创历 史新高。货值规模在1000亿至3000亿房企的去化周期高达9.01年。 房企的投资逻辑被重构，货值规模高不再是优势，而小体量、健康的存货储备或是保障企业稳健运营的关键。 百强总土储货值同比降13% 龙头房企"瘦身"明显 百强房企总土储货值和建面双降。 截止2024年末，TOP100房企总土储货值和总土储建面分别为25.17万亿元和15.73亿平米，较去年分别下降13%和12%。 自房地产行业开启新一轮"去库存"以来，百强房企总土储货值自2020年达到峰值后逐年下降，到2024年百强房企总土储货值较2020年高峰期已下降了 45.2%。 2024年总土储货值排名前十的房企中，货值规模下降较大的分别为万科地产、碧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector has emerged as a new focus for market speculation, with significant gains in real estate ETFs, indicating a shift in investor interest towards this industry [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The real estate ETF fund (515060) and real estate ETF (512200) both saw half-day increases of 1.72% and 1.7% respectively, leading the market [1][3]. - The real estate ETF (512200) has a large scale of 4.739 billion units, with a half-day trading volume of 161 million yuan, tracking the CSI All Share Real Estate Index [3]. - The real estate ETF (159768) recorded a half-day increase of 0.76%, with a scale of 1.265 billion units and a trading volume of 17.1127 million yuan, tracking the CSI Mainland Real Estate Theme Index [6]. - The real estate ETF (159707) experienced a half-day increase of 0.68%, with a scale of 859 million units and a trading volume of 14.8376 million yuan, tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "de-inventory" strategy in the real estate sector is primarily driven by a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and declining sales data, leading to an oversupply of commercial housing and an extended inventory clearance cycle [3]. - Anticipation of more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, along with new policies aimed at improving housing quality, is expected to further stimulate and release demand for improved housing, supporting stable industry development [3]. Group 3: Major Constituents of Indices - The top five constituents of the CSI All Share Real Estate Index include leading companies such as Poly Developments (10.13% weight), Vanke A (9.17% weight), and China Merchants Shekou (6.43% weight) [4]. - The CSI Mainland Real Estate Theme Index also features major companies like Poly Developments (14.80% weight), Vanke A (14.20% weight), and China Merchants Shekou (14.16% weight) [7][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that local governments are accelerating the issuance of special bonds directed towards the real estate sector, with a notable increase in the proportion of these bonds allocated for land reserve projects [1][3][6] - In April, the total amount of special bonds issued by local governments reached 176.3 billion yuan, with 71.7 billion yuan (40%) allocated to real estate-related fields, marking an 8 percentage point increase from the previous month [3][6] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds in April amounted to 21 billion yuan, contributing to a cumulative total of 51.7 billion yuan for the year, indicating a significant focus on land acquisition and development [2][6] Group 2 - The provinces of Hunan, Shandong, and Xiamen have notably increased their issuance of real estate special bonds, collectively accounting for 74% of the new bonds in this sector in April [8][11] - Among the 336 billion yuan of special bonds primarily directed towards real estate in April, 62% was allocated for land reserves, highlighting the emphasis on land acquisition [11][14] - The recovery of idle land is seen as a crucial driver for stabilizing the real estate market, with the potential to significantly impact the overall market if a portion of the total land reserve area can be activated [14]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened high on May 7, driven by policy catalysts, with the real estate sector leading the gains [1] - The real estate ETF fund (515060) saw an increase of over 3% in early trading, with stocks like Debi Group (300947), Sanxiang Impression (000863), and Tianbao Infrastructure (000965) hitting the daily limit [1] - The National News Office reported that the balance of real estate loans increased by over 750 billion yuan in Q1, with new personal housing loans reaching the largest quarterly increase since 2022 [1] Group 2 - The government plans to introduce a series of financing systems to support the new model of real estate development, aiming to stabilize the market [1] - A reduction of 0.25 percentage points in personal housing provident fund loan interest rates is expected to save residents over 20 billion yuan annually [1] - Open-source securities suggest that the "de-inventory" strategy is primarily due to the reversal of supply-demand relationships and declining sales data, leading to an oversupply of commercial housing [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate "de-inventory" strategy is primarily driven by the reversal of supply-demand dynamics and declining sales data, leading to an oversupply of commercial housing and an extended inventory digestion cycle [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current real estate cycle has seen a significant change in supply-demand relationships, officially entering a de-inventory phase as of July 2023, with over 30 months of continuous decline in sales volume and price [2][4]. - The scale of housing and inventory in this cycle is larger compared to previous downturns, with substantial monetary and fiscal policy support already in place since 2024 [2][4]. Group 2: Policy and Quality Improvement - The focus of housing development has shifted from mere availability to quality, with government initiatives aimed at increasing the supply of "good houses" and enhancing construction standards [2][3]. - New national standards for residential projects, effective from March 31, 2025, will enforce stricter requirements on various aspects of housing construction, leading to improved quality in new residential buildings [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and a good grasp of improvement-oriented customer demand, such as Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [1][4]. - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like China Resources Land and New City Holdings, are also highlighted [1][4]. - The second-hand housing market is expected to grow, with companies like Beike-W and I Love My Home positioned to capitalize on this trend [1][4].

Group 1 - The supply-demand relationship has changed, leading to a prolonged decline in both volume and price in the current real estate cycle. The central government has officially entered a destocking cycle as of July 2023, with significant policy support and a longer duration of declining sales data compared to previous cycles [2][7][26] - The concept of "good houses" has emerged, shifting the focus from mere availability to quality. The government has emphasized increasing the supply of quality housing, with new standards set to enhance residential construction requirements [2][31][35] Group 2 - The real estate market is transitioning from "having" to "quality," with increasing demand for improved housing conditions. Data from the 2020 census shows an average of 3.18 rooms per household and 37.76 square meters per person, indicating progress in housing quality [3][45] - The aging of existing housing stock, primarily built between 1990 and 2014, is expected to drive ongoing replacement and upgrading demand as homeowners seek better living conditions [3][46] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with strong credit ratings that can cater to improving customer needs, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development. Additionally, firms benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery are highlighted [4][60][61]