来源：金融界AI电报 景顺亚太区环球市场策略师赵耀庭表示，日元自高市当选以来走弱，反映出市场预期她在货币紧缩上采 取谨慎立场，以及对大规模刺激方案引发财政恶化的忧虑。政府对日元走弱感到担心，若美元兑日元接 近160，可能进行外汇干预。不过，一旦刺激方案的规模与细节明朗化，日元跌势预计将趋于稳定。赵 耀庭认为，日元走弱加上大规模经济刺激预期，为日本央行加息提供了助力。由于工资增长强劲及家庭 信心改善，国内需求保持韧性。在刺激措施及通胀回落的带动下，第四季经济增长预计将重返正区间。 日本央行在12月18至19日会议上加息的可能性增加。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，尽管面临美国关税带来的利润压力，但日本2026年度薪资谈判的早期迹象显示，薪 资将再次实现稳健增长，这为日本央行进一步加息提供了依据。 日本央行行长植田和男此前表示，需要"更多数据"来评估明年薪资谈判的初步势头——尤其是受美国关 税影响的企业是否会持续加薪，这一表态让薪资前景再度成为市场焦点。 日本工会已明确表示，将再次要求大幅加薪。持续的薪资增长将支撑私人消费，赋予日本央行在不破坏 经济复苏的前提下加息的信心。尽管近年来薪资实现大幅上涨，但由于核心消费通胀持续高于央行2% 的目标，实际薪资增长仍处于负值区间。 拥有700万会员的日本最大工会联合组织Rengo计划在2026年劳资谈判中争取5%及以上的薪资涨幅。这 与该组织在2025年的要求相同，并最终在今年达成了34年来最大的加薪幅度。 作为受美国关税冲击最严重的行业之一，日本汽车行业最大工会负责人本月表示，尽管企业利润受到挤 压，但在明年的劳资谈判中并无下调加薪诉求的计划。 日本的年度薪资谈判通常于年末由工会起草要求，次年年初展开正式谈判，并于3月公布最终结果。 诚然，企业未必会完全响应2026年的工会加薪要求。未来几个月，美国对日本商 ...

日本首相高市早苗经济成长战略顾问小组成员片冈刚士表示，日本央行在明年3月之前不太可能加息， 因为当局需要确认大规模额外财政支出正在有效提振国内需求。片冈刚士曾担任日本央行委员会成员， 当时坚定支持财政与货币宽松政策。 他表示，若本周晚些时候即将公布的经济刺激方案能有效实施，国内需求最早可能在明年第一季度开始 扩张，"视情况而定，3月就可能具备加息条件。" （文章来源：新华财经） 尽管多数经济学家预计日本央行将在1月加息，尤其考虑到日元近期走弱，但片冈的观点暗示，加息时 间可能进一步推迟。与此同时，他的表态也表明，各方普遍认同日本央行应坚持逐步迈向加息路径的总 体方向。 ...

Core Points - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is set to meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, with expectations that the meeting may provide insights on when the central bank will resume its interest rate hike cycle [1] - The Tokyo stock market experienced a decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 3.3% amid concerns over a significant drop in tech stocks and deteriorating Japan-China relations [1] - The Japanese yen fell to its lowest level since January, trading at 155.38 yen per dollar, as market speculation suggests that the Bank of Japan may delay interest rate hikes due to the government's unexpectedly large spending plans [1] - Japan's 20-year government bond yield reached its highest level since 1999, with the 30-year bond yield rising by 5.5 basis points, nearing historical highs [1] - Japan's overall inflation rate has exceeded the 2% target for over three years, leading many market participants to anticipate a potential interest rate hike by the central bank in December or January [1] - Despite indications from Ueda that a rate hike could occur as early as December, Kishida expressed dissatisfaction and urged the Bank of Japan to align with government policies aimed at stimulating the economy [1] Group 1 - The meeting between the Prime Minister and the central bank governor is highly anticipated for potential signals regarding interest rate hikes [1] - The Tokyo stock market's decline is attributed to tech stock drops and geopolitical tensions [1] - The depreciation of the yen is linked to expectations of delayed interest rate hikes and increased import costs [2] Group 2 - Rising government bond yields indicate market reactions to inflation and interest rate expectations [1] - The sustained inflation above the target suggests a potential shift in monetary policy [1] - The Prime Minister's push for alignment with economic stimulus measures highlights the tension between fiscal and monetary policy [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management's 2026 investment outlook report indicates a divergence in central bank policies across major markets, influenced by varying economic conditions [1] Group 1: U.S. Market - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, leading Goldman Sachs to predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice in 2026 [1] Group 2: European Market - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates at their current levels for the foreseeable future [1] - The Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December, contingent on improvements in inflation, a relatively weak labor market, and potential tax increases [1] Group 3: Japanese Market - High inflation and strong growth in Japan may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [1] - Recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy further reinforce the likelihood of this direction [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management released its 2026 investment outlook report, indicating a potential divergence in central bank policies across major markets [1] Group 1: U.S. Market - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice in 2026 due to a weak labor market [1] Group 2: European Market - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates at current levels for the foreseeable future [1] - The Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December, influenced by improving inflation, a relatively weak labor market, and potential tax increases [1] Group 3: Japanese Market - High inflation and strong growth in Japan may lead to an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] - Recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy further reinforce this direction [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Japan's economy is experiencing a temporary setback, with a 1.8% year-on-year decline in GDP for Q3, marking the first contraction in six quarters, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [1] - Japan's Q3 GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, which was better than the market expectation of a 0.6% contraction, while the revised growth for Q2 was 2.3% [1] - Exports were the main drag on the economy, with net external demand reducing growth by 0.2 percentage points, significantly affected by a 15% tariff on Japanese goods imposed by the U.S. starting in September [1] - Private consumption increased by only 0.1%, down from 0.4% in the previous quarter, as high prices suppressed spending willingness; however, capital expenditure rose by 1.0%, exceeding the expected 0.3% [1] - The Japanese government is planning a stimulus package of approximately 17 trillion yen to improve household income and support consumption next year [1] Group 2 - From a technical analysis perspective, the USD/JPY exchange rate maintains a bullish structure in the short term, with clear resistance levels above [2] - The USD/JPY rebounded strongly from 153.60 and broke through the resistance zone of 154.45–154.50, indicating potential for further upward movement [2] - If the USD/JPY effectively breaks the psychological level of 155.00, it could open up further upward space towards 155.60 or even 156.00 [2] - The support level at 154.00 remains crucial for maintaining the bullish structure; a drop below 153.60 could lead to a further decline towards 153.00 [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - On November 17, the Japanese stock market opened with a significant decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1% [2] - Tourism-related stocks in Japan experienced substantial losses, with Shiseido's stock price falling by 11% and Japan Airlines dropping by 5% [2] - Other consumer goods and retail stocks also declined, with companies like Sanrio, Asics, and Fast Retailing all seeing drops exceeding 6% [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - Notable stock declines included: - Mitsukoshi Isetan: -9.75% [3] - Shiseido: -9.51% [3] - CyberAgent: -9.23% [3] - Ryohin Keikaku (Muji): -7.45% [3] - Japan Airlines: -4.61% [3] - The overall market sentiment reflects a bearish trend, particularly in the retail and tourism sectors [2][3] Group 3: Economic Context - Japan's GDP reported a year-on-year decline of 1.8% for Q3, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [5] - The GDP decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, influenced by external demand and a 9.4% drop in housing investment [5] - Analysts suggest that this economic contraction complicates the timeline for potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, with expectations leaning towards a delay in policy changes until next year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant depreciation, raising concerns about the new government's ability to intervene effectively to support the currency, especially in light of Prime Minister Kishida's signals of a potential slowdown in interest rate hikes [1][2][3] Currency Trends - The yen has depreciated approximately 4.5% against the US dollar this quarter, marking the largest decline among G10 currencies, with the exchange rate reaching around 154.73 [1][2] - The yen's rapid fluctuations have prompted warnings from Japanese officials, indicating a heightened urgency to monitor excessive volatility [1][2] Government and Central Bank Actions - Japan's Finance Ministry previously intervened in the market when the yen fell to around 160.17, with multiple interventions at various levels [2] - Current discussions suggest that if the yen surpasses 155 against the dollar, the likelihood of intervention will significantly increase [2][3] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates in the last meeting, with a decision on the next policy expected on December 19, and a majority of economists anticipate a rate hike by January [2][4] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that if the yen breaks the 155 mark, verbal intervention may intensify, and the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan could also rise [3] - The market currently estimates a 40% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year, with full expectations for a rate increase not anticipated until April next year [4] Economic Implications - A weaker yen could benefit Japan's export sector by increasing the value of repatriated earnings, but it also raises import costs and inflationary pressures [2] - The potential for intervention may complicate Japan's $550 billion investment plan in the US, which is a key component of the US-Japan trade agreement [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to end by 2025, leading to clearer economic conditions as key macroeconomic data will resume publication once the government is operational again [1] - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill to keep the government running until at least the end of January, awaiting House approval and presidential signature [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment suggests that the resumption of labor market and inflation data may not indicate a positive economic outlook, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider further rate cuts next month [3] - Traders are optimistic about the end of the government shutdown and the possibility of the Fed lowering rates again after key economic data is released [3] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar has reacted to the expectations of a December rate cut, with the dollar index (DXY) falling below the psychological level of 100 [3] - The decline of the dollar is not uniform, as the Japanese yen remains weak due to expectations of increased fiscal spending by the new Japanese government [4] Group 4 - Gold and silver prices have risen due to the weakening dollar, with gold trading above $4,100 and potential to reach $4,235 if it breaks resistance levels [4] - Silver prices have also gained attention, returning to the $50 mark amid expectations of a supply shortage in 2026 [4] Group 5 - Oil prices have been boosted by the news of a potential end to the government shutdown, with U.S. crude prices rising above $60 per barrel [6] - However, the upcoming increase in supply from OPEC+ may limit further price increases [6]