Workflow
期货套利
icon
Search documents
集运日报:SCFIS持续回落,或将全面停火,远月大幅回落,符合日报预期,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20251010
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 07:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining, and there may be a full - scale cease - fire. The far - month contracts have significantly declined, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is not recommended to continue adding positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5]. - Pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Shipping Indexes - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, a 6.6% decline from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 876.82 points, a 4.8% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 717.36 points, an 8.47% decline; for the European route, it was 614.14 points, an 8.83% decline; for the US - West route, it was 868.22 points, an 8.11% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1114.52 points, a decline of 83.69 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, a 7.70% decline; the SCFI US - West route was 1460 USD/FEU, a 10.76% decline [3]. - On September 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.41 points, a 2.9% decline; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, a 4.7% decline; for the US - West route, it was 824.92 points, a 2.4% increase [3]. b. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the September manufacturing PMI flash was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The services PMI flash rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The September composite PMI flash was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sentiment. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [4]. - In the US, the September S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (August final value: 53); the services PMI flash was 53.9 (August final value: 54.5); the composite PMI flash was 53.6 (August final value: 54.6) [4]. c. Market Situation and Strategies - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On October 9, the main contract 2512 closed at 1688.0, a 1.81% decline, with a trading volume of 41,500 lots and an open interest of 24,200 lots, an increase of 3451 lots from the previous day [5]. - During the holiday, the SCFIS index continued to decline, and the Israel - Palestine situation showed signs of easing, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market and wide - range fluctuations [5]. - **Short - term strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - **Long - term strategy**: All contracts are advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. d. Geopolitical News - On October 9, Palestinian President Abbas welcomed the efforts to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which includes cease - fire, Israeli withdrawal, and access to humanitarian aid. He hopes the agreement can pave the way for a permanent political solution and end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory [7]. - On the same day, the Israeli Defense Forces said they had evaluated the situation overnight, and the IDF Chief of Staff instructed the troops to prepare for various situations, welcomed the agreement on the return of the detained persons, and would continue to act to achieve the military operation goals in the Gaza Strip [7].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年10月10日)-20251010
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures on October 10, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, shows that the basis on October 9 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, the same as September 30 and 29, while on September 26 it was - 100.4 yuan/ton, and on September 25 it was - 95.4 yuan/ton. The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads were all 0.0 [2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on October 9 was 13.42 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on October 9 was - 765 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was - 35 yuan/ton [11] - Inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are shown. For example, on October 9, LLDPE - PVC was 2318 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are presented. For example, on October 9, rebar/iron ore was 3.92 [20] - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the basis of rebar on October 9 was 154.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market are provided. For example, the basis of copper on October 9 was - 750 yuan/ton [30] - **London Market**: On October 9, 2025, LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (24.90) [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on October 9 was - 15 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 29 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are shown. For example, on October 9, soybeans No.1/corn was 1.85 [41] Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 9 was 20.28 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 8.8 [52]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年10月9日):一、动力煤-20251009
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 02:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products of Baocheng Futures on October 9, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period spreads of power coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025. The basis on September 30 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, and all inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) were 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - It provides the basis, price ratios, and other data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy commodities from September 24 to September 30, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 30 was 13.33 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on September 30 was - 730 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rubber was - 15 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 30 was 2298 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rebar was 54.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on September 30 was 3.95 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of rebar on September 30 was 138.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on September 30 was 80 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (42.98) [33] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 30 was 33 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of various agricultural products are provided, including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 32 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on September 30 was 1.83 [38] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 30 was 22.69 [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 9.8 [50]
有色套利早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead as of September 30, 2025, which can help investors analyze potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 30, 2025, the domestic spot price was 82220, the LME price was 10235, and the ratio was 8.06; the three - month domestic price was 82360, the LME price was 10264, and the ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.10, with a loss of 898.28, and the profit for spot export was 299.94 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21620, the LME price was 2953, and the ratio was 7.32; the three - month domestic price was 21830, the LME price was 2909, and the ratio was 5.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.54, with a loss of 3590.26 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20690, the LME price was 2660, and the ratio was 7.77; the three - month domestic price was 20725, the LME price was 2666, and the ratio was 7.76. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.39, with a loss of 1632.20 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119800, the LME price was 15057, and the ratio was 7.96. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.18, with a loss of 1708.54 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16750, the LME price was 1948, and the ratio was 8.62; the three - month domestic price was 16885, the LME price was 1993, and the ratio was 10.89. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.83, with a loss of 400.78 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 30, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were - 100, - 110, - 150, and - 130 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 514, 927, 1348, and 1769 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 150, - 120, - 75, and - 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 450, and 569 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 25, - 30, - 20, and - 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 446, and 562 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 215, - 185, - 165, and - 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 0, 170, 340, and 620 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 1010, and the theoretical spread was 5645 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 295 and 195 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 346 and 787 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 330 and 180 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 159 and 285 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 320 and 105 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 179 and 291 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 30, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.77, 3.97, 4.88, 0.95, 1.23, and 0.77 respectively; in the London (three - continuous) market, they were 3.54, 3.89, 5.22, 0.91, 1.34, and 0.68 respectively [5]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年9月29日):一、动力煤-20250929
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides daily arbitrage data for various futures commodities on September 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of these commodities. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis for power coal on September 26, 2025, was - 100.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 95.4 yuan/ton on September 25, 24, and 23, and - 96.4 yuan/ton on September 22. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, the basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented, along with the price ratios. For example, on September 26, the basis of INE crude oil was 13.13 yuan/ton, and the price ratio was 0.1417 [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. For instance, on September 26, the basis of rubber was - 770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was - 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2261 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.94 [20]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of rebar was 126.0 yuan/ton [21]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from September 22 to 26, 2025, are presented. On September 26, the basis of copper was 40 yuan/ton [28]. London Market - For LME non - ferrous metals on September 26, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (38.91), and the import profit and loss was (452.74) [33]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are given. On September 26, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 125 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 33 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 22 to 26, 2025, are shown. On September 26, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.81 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 22 to 26, 2025, are provided. On September 26, the basis of CSI 300 was 25.05 [50]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next - month vs current - month, next - quarter vs current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 14.0 [50].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年9月26日):一、动力煤-20250926
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:35
Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures variety arbitrage data daily report for September 26, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From September 19 - 25, 2025, the base price of thermal coal remained at -95.4 yuan/ton (except -96.4 yuan/ton on September 22 and -97.4 yuan/ton on September 19), and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with specific values varying each day [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with values changing daily [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [11] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price**: Base price data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [21] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic Base Price**: Domestic base price data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [28] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 25, 2025 are provided [32] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: Base price data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [36] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: Base price data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next month - current month and next quarter - current quarter spreads, are presented [47]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年9月25日):一、动力煤-20250925
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 01:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on September 25, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, spreads, and price ratios. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data from September 18 to September 24, 2025, shows that the basis on September 18 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, gradually increasing to - 95.4 yuan/ton on September 24. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy products, basis data from September 18 to September 24, 2025, and price ratio data of crude oil to asphalt are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 24 was 135.72 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: The basis data of chemical products such as rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 24 was - 820 yuan/ton. Also, spread and price ratio data for cross - period and cross - variety are given, like the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 24 was 2232 yuan/ton [9][11] Black Metals - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 60.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Cross - variety**: The cross - variety price ratios and spreads of black metals from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore price ratio on September 24 was 3.93, and the rebar - hot rolled coil spread was - 193.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on September 24 was 126.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on September 24 was 90 yuan/ton [28] - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London price ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals on September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was (31.37) [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 24 was 153 yuan/ton [38] - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of agricultural products are shown, such as the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 50 [38] - **Cross - variety**: The cross - variety price ratios and spreads of agricultural products from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are given. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal price ratio on September 24 was 2.77 [38] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 18 to September 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 24 was 36.07 [49] - **Cross - period**: The cross - period spreads of stock index futures are shown, such as the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 18.4 [49]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年9月24日):一、动力煤-20250924
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 03:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties by Baocheng Futures on September 24, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide data references for investors [1][5][21][27][37][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis data of power coal from September 17 to September 23, 2025. The basis on September 23 was - 96.4 yuan/ton, showing a gradual increase compared with previous days [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: It includes the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 17 to September 23, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 23 was 7.56 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 23 was - 825 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber being - 45 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 23 was 2205 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown, like the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar being 57.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on September 23 was 3.94 [20]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are provided. For instance, the basis of rebar on September 23 was 95.0 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on September 23 was 60 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: The LME spread, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on September 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (73.11) [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 23 was 182 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of multiple agricultural products are shown, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 being 41 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on September 23 was 1.80 [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 23 was 35.98 [49]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 9.4 [49].
银河期货航运日报-20250923
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 10:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot freight rate in the container shipping market remains weak, with a divergence expected in the second half of October. Traders are advised to take a long - position approach for the EC2512 contract and a short - position approach for the EC2510 contract [4][6]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the large - vessel market is expected to enter a decline channel from mid - October, while the medium - vessel market is under pressure in the short term [17]. - The tanker shipping market is generally stable, with the crude oil market showing a preference for Suez - type vessels, and the product oil market having significant regional differences in freight rates [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The spot freight rate is on a rapid decline, but the decline rate is expected to slow in the second half of October. There is an expectation of rate hikes in the first half of October after the holiday. The EC2512 closed at 1623.4 points on September 23, down 1.84% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line reported $1052/TEU on September 19, down 8.84% month - on - month, and the latest SCFIS European Line reported 1254.92 points, down 12.87% month - on - month [4]. - Some shipping companies have started to adjust their October freight rates. The demand for peak - season cargo has declined from its peak, and the loading rate of mainstream shipping companies has dropped. The weekly average capacity in September, October, and November 2025 is 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively, with a slight decrease in October and an increase in September and November compared to the previous week. The blank - sailing rate in October is about 15.56% [5]. - Trading strategies include taking profit on short positions of EC2510 at low prices, taking a long - position approach for the EC2512 contract, conducting a reverse spread operation for the 10 - 12 spread at low prices, and entering a long - position for the 2 - 4 spread at low prices [6][7]. Industry News - The Fed's Bostic and Musalem believe there is limited room for further interest rate cuts, and if inflation risks increase, they will not support further cuts [7]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's consumer confidence index in September is - 14.9, better than expected [8]. - As of the end of August 2025, there are 534 container ship orders that can use alternative fuels, accounting for 53% of the total number of ordered ships and 77% of the total capacity (TEU) [8]. - Shenzhen Maritime Department has implemented a management measure of "only departure, no entry" for large container liners since 2:00 on September 22 [8]. - Shanghai Port Energy will provide biomass methanol fueling services for CMA CGM's methanol - powered ships during their berthing and cargo handling at Shanghai Port [8]. - The Israeli - Palestinian conflict situation continues, with Israel intensifying its actions in the Gaza Strip, and multiple countries recognizing the State of Palestine [9]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index dropped slightly on Monday, with almost all types of ship freight indices falling. The BDI decreased by 31 points or 1.41% to 2172 points. The Capesize ship freight index dropped by 72 points or 2.1% to 3365 points, and the Panamax ship freight index dropped by 23 points or 1.3% to 1822 points [13]. - On September 22, the freight rate for the Capesize ship's iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $24.85/ton, up 0.30% month - on - month, and from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.78/ton, down 1.51% month - on - month. As of September 19, the weekly freight rate for the Capesize ship's coal route from Hay Point, Australia to Qingdao was $13.00/ton, up 7.44% week - on - week [14]. - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.248 million tons, a decrease of 2.483 million tons month - on - month. Brazil's soybean, corn, and soybean meal exports in September are expected to increase [15]. - Guinea's Nimba Mining SA has a strengthening expectation of resuming production, which may bring incremental transportation demand to the large - vessel Atlantic market [16]. - The large - vessel market is expected to enter a decline channel from mid - October, and the medium - vessel market is under pressure in the short term due to weakening transportation demand [17]. Industry News - Argentina has temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, their derivatives, corn, and wheat from September 22 to October 31 or until exports reach $7 billion [18]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a work plan for the stable growth of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, with an average annual growth target of about 4% for the added value of the steel industry [20]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - On September 22, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1128, down 1.31% month - on - month and up 30.40% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 620, up 0.32% month - on - month and up 6.53% year - on - year. The tanker shipping market is generally stable, with the crude oil market preferring Suez - type vessels, and the product oil market having significant regional differences in freight rates [21]. Industry News - Kuwait will increase its oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day in October [22]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil production decreased by 551,000 barrels per day in July to 9.201 million barrels per day [22]. - Saudi Arabia's new defense agreement with Pakistan is unlikely to change its energy relationship with India [22]. Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of shipping indices such as SCFIS, SCFI, BDI, BPI, BCI, BSI, BDTI, BCTI, as well as the basis of EC10 and EC12 contracts, and the long - term average earnings and TCE of three major types of crude oil tankers [25][34][43]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年9月23日)-20250923
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 02:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on September 23, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Catalog Power Coal - The basis data from September 16 to 22, 2025, shows that the basis on September 22 was - 96.4 yuan/ton, gradually increasing from - 113.4 yuan/ton on September 16. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from September 16 to 22, 2025, and their price ratios and basis values are presented. For example, on September 22, the basis of INE crude oil was 84.22 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 16 to 22, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 22 was - 915 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol for 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was - 20 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 16 to 22, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 22, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2198 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 16 to 22, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on September 22 was 105.0 yuan/ton [21] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal for 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9(10) - month vs 1 - month, and 9(10) - month vs 5 - month are provided. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 16 to 22, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 22, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.92 [20] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 16 to 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of copper on September 22 was - 30 yuan/ton [28] - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 22, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (72.44) [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 16 to 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 22 was 148 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products for 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 16 to 22, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 22, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.81 [40] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 16 to 22, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 22 was 38.61 [51] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for next - month vs current - month and next - quarter vs current - quarter are provided. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 15.6 [51]