Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is relatively strong due to favorable demand and warehouse receipt de - stocking [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 3: Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Information**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 72,680, with a volume of 270,327 and an open interest of 192,931. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 72,760, the volume was 118,981, and the open interest was 203,570. The warehouse receipt volume was 35,180 [1] - **Basis Information**: The basis of spot - 2511 was 320, spot - 2601 was 240, 2511 - 2601 was - 80, electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,250, and spot - CIF was 6,374 [1] - **Raw Material Information**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 828, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,725 [1] - **Lithium Salt Information**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized) was 78,200, etc. [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,007 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2] - Jinyuan Co., Ltd.'s Baqiancuo salt lake lithium extraction project is in the trial - production stage, and the Argentine Carlo project is still in exploration [2] - Zangge Mining's subsidiary resumed lithium resource development and utilization activities on October 11, 2025, with a temporary shutdown of 87 days, and the impact on the 2025 operating performance is expected to be small [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the fluctuation in lithium carbonate prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reported at 72,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton [1][2] - The industrial-grade lithium carbonate is also reported at 71,700 yuan/ton, reflecting a similar increase of 400 yuan/ton [1][2] - The average price of long-term contracts for battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 71,750 yuan/ton [1][2] Group 2 - The lithium hydroxide index is reported at 73,500 yuan/ton, showing a significant increase of 3,000 yuan/ton [1][2] - The metal lithium index remains stable at 587,500 yuan/ton [1][2] - The discount coefficient for lithium brine (sulfuric acid lithium) is reported at 74%, a decrease of 1 [1][2] Group 3 - The futures market opened higher, while the spot market showed stability with minor fluctuations in basis prices [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The significant reduction in lithium carbonate warehouse receipts provides an upward driving force [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a certain degree of upward momentum [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 72,280 yuan, down 460 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 282,178 lots, down 12,605 lots; the open interest was 207,463 lots, down 14,456 lots [2] - **2601 Contract**: The closing price was 72,500 yuan, down 400 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 107,357 lots, down 1,046 lots; the open interest was 201,855 lots, up 10,146 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 36,718 lots, down 5,951 lots compared to T - 1 [2] - **Base Difference**: The spot - 2511 was 820 yuan, up 10 yuan compared to T - 1; the spot - 2601 was 600 yuan, down 50 yuan; the 2511 - 2601 was - 220 yuan, down 60 yuan [2] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 829 US dollars, down 10 US dollars compared to T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,765 yuan, down 45 yuan [2] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,100 yuan, down 450 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan, down 450 yuan [2] - **Related Products**: The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 121,625 yuan, up 800 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 124,975 yuan, up 900 yuan [2] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,039 yuan/ton, down 414 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,100 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton [3] - In September, the preliminary statistics of China's passenger car market retail sales increased by 6% year - on - year and 11% month - on - month, reaching 2.239 million vehicles [3] - In September, new energy vehicle sales increased by 16% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month, reaching 1.307 million vehicles [5]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing weakness, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 72,300 yuan per ton, indicating a downward trend in prices following the futures market [1] Price Indices - The current spot market for battery-grade lithium carbonate has a base index of -255 yuan per ton [1] - The average price for long-term contracts is reported at 71,950 yuan per ton [1] - The hydroxide lithium index stands at 70,500 yuan per ton [1] - The metal lithium index is at 587,500 yuan per ton, with a discount coefficient of 75% [1] Market Conditions - The spot market lacks new guiding information, and the fundamentals remain stable, leading to a continued decline in price levels following the futures market [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests paying attention to changes in mining certificates and recommends light - position operations before the holiday for lithium carbonate [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: The 2511 contract's closing price was 73,920, with a change of 1,040 compared to T - 1; volume was 465,591, down 15,429 from T - 1; and open interest was 251,749, up 3,109 from T - 1. The 2601 contract's closing price was 73,900, up 1,080 from T - 1; volume was 130,921, up 20,909 from T - 1; and open interest was 174,714, up 720 from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Basis**: The warehouse receipt volume was 41,119, up 790 from T - 1. The basis of spot - 2511 was - 370, and spot - 2601 was - 350 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 858, up 1 from T - 1; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,875, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550, down 50 from T - 1; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300, down 50 from T - 1 [1]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,456 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary in Zimbabwe is investing $400 million to build a lithium sulfate processing plant, which is in the final construction phase and will be completed before the Zimbabwean government's lithium concentrate export ban in January 2027 [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is favorable with continuous inventory reduction, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. However, if the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens, the market may decline [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 25, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 72,980 yuan/ton and closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, with a 0.93% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 342,719 lots, and the open interest was 261,141 lots (compared to 260,654 lots the previous day). The current basis was 350 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 40,309 lots, a change of 560 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 73,100 - 74,400 yuan/ton, a - 100 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,900 - 72,100 yuan/ton, also a - 100 yuan/ton change. The 6% lithium concentrate price was 830 US dollars/ton, a 3 US dollars/ton change from the previous day. The lithium carbonate futures price continued to fluctuate, with the main contract oscillating between 72,700 - 74,500 yuan/ton. As the pre - National Day stocking by downstream material factories nears the end, market wait - and - see sentiment is growing [1]. - The weekly production increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons, and the production from spodumene slightly increased. The weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, while the inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased as downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices [2]. - Tibet Mining's project of comprehensive green development and utilization of the Zabuye Salt Lake with an annual output of 10,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate was officially put into production after a successful 120 - hour functional assessment from September 20 to 24, 2025 [2]. Strategy - The futures market fluctuated widely on the day. Supported by the consumption peak season and continuous inventory reduction, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. But if the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens, the market may decline. - For single - side trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and selling hedging can be done at high prices. There are no suggestions for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with the demand growth rate relatively faster, and the continuous inventory reduction supports the price. The supply-side resumption expectation and the demand-side "Golden September and Silver October" stocking rhythm form the main line of the long-short game. In the next 1-2 weeks, if the downstream pre-holiday replenishment demand is accelerated, the price support at the current position is still obvious, but it is necessary to be vigilant that the high supply elasticity limits the rebound height [3]. - In the short term, both supply and demand are increasing, but the demand growth is faster, and the inventory reduction supports the price. However, the uncertainty of the resumption of production makes the market sentiment cautious. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the next week, with a small upward space, but it may encounter resistance at high levels, so it will be volatile and strong, but the increase is limited [31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On September 17, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 73,640 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous trading day; the basis narrowed to -540 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased to 294,624 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 31.26% to 343,863 lots [1]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The supply-side capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 66.41%, but the market focus shifted to the resumption expectation. If Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine resumes production as scheduled in November, it may increase the supply pressure. The demand side showed that the prices of downstream ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, and the cell prices also generally strengthened, but the short-term contradiction was the weak terminal demand. The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased continuously, and the destocking in the spot market continued [2]. - **Market Summary**: The current lithium carbonate market has a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with the demand growth rate relatively faster. The continuous inventory reduction supports the price. The supply-side resumption expectation and the demand-side "Golden September and Silver October" stocking rhythm form the main line of the long-short game [3]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 17, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased from 73,180 yuan/ton to 73,640 yuan/ton, with a 0.63% increase. The basis strengthened from -1,080 to -540. The battery-grade lithium carbonate market price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 73,100 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase [5]. - **Other Product Prices**: The prices of related products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also showed slight increases, while the open interest of the main contract decreased by 1.93%, and the trading volume decreased significantly by 31.26% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotes**: On September 17, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,116 yuan/ton, up 281 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot transaction price continued to fluctuate upward, and the futures price continued to fluctuate. The downstream material enterprises still held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the overall market trading activity was not high [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to the Passenger Car Association data, from September 1 to 7, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 3% year-on-year, but the wholesale increased by 5%. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 59.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year increased by 25% year-on-year [7]. - **Industry News**: On September 9, Ningde Times held a "Jianxiawo lithium mine resumption work meeting" to discuss the resumption work, aiming to complete the resumption in November, but the resumption is still uncertain [8]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those of lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., with data sources from SMM, Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, iFinD, and the R & D department of Tonghui Futures [9][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and relatively weak demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [8][9][13]. - The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate has increased, resulting in losses in production. The cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged, also with losses. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The cash production cost at the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the output was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,311 yuan/ton, a 0.33% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 3,227 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 77,345 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 7,245 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [9]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of most lithium - related products increased slightly. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.41% to 73,150 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.42% to 70,900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 66.41%. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The import volume decreased by 21.77% to 13,845.31 tons [19]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% to 264,720 tons, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% to 316,400 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% to 62,500 GWh [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a certain upward trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines also had corresponding changes. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased significantly by 34.73% to 576,138 tons [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the domestic lithium ore market, with shortages in most months [29]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend, and the production capacity also increased. The monthly output in August 2025 was 85,240 tons [32]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume decreased, and the export volume was relatively small. The monthly import volume in August was 17,000 tons [32][39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market, with shortages in some months [39]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity**: The production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The monthly output in August 2025 was 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease from the previous month [19]. - **Export and Import**: The export volume decreased significantly, and the import volume was relatively small [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium hydroxide market, with shortages in some months [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica was relatively high, resulting in losses in production. The cost - profit situation of different recycling materials also varied [48][50]. - **Processing Cost and Profit**: The processing costs of lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased, and the profit of lithium carbonate purification and other processing links also changed [48][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with a 1.12% week - on - week decrease to 138,512 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other parties increased [10]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide also showed certain changes, with the monthly inventory of downstream and smelters having corresponding fluctuations [55]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Cost**: The prices of some lithium batteries increased slightly, and the cost of battery cells also changed [59]. - **Production and Sales**: The monthly output and sales volume of lithium batteries increased, and the export volume also showed an upward trend [59]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium battery cells showed different trends for different types of batteries [61]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary precursors showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary precursor decreased [64]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly output of ternary precursors increased, and the capacity utilization rate also showed corresponding changes [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the ternary precursor market, with shortages in some months [67]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary material decreased [70]. - **Production and Export - Import**: The production of ternary materials increased, and the export and import volumes also had corresponding changes [70][72]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations [72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of iron phosphate lithium increased [74]. - **Production and Export**: The monthly output of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium increased, and the export volume of iron phosphate lithium also increased significantly [74][77]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations [79]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles increased. The sales volume in August 2025 was 1.262 million vehicles, a 11.91% increase from the previous month [19][82]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to increase [83].

Report Overview - The report is about the lithium carbonate market, dated September 15, 2025, titled "Lithium Carbonate: Supply and Demand Both Increase, Operating Under Pressure" [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the price is under pressure. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 71,160, with a decrease compared to previous periods (e.g., -3,100 compared to T - 5). The trading volume was 410,989, also showing a decline. The open interest was 309,402, which decreased as well. Similar trends were observed for the 2601 contract [1] - **Basis and Other Data**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract was 1,290, with fluctuations over different time intervals. The difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250, remaining stable on the latest day [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 842, showing a downward trend. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,450, down 400 from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 72,398 yuan/ton, down 406 yuan/ton from the previous workday. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 7.09 - 7.4 million yuan/ton, with an average of 7.245 million yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 6.96 - 7.08 million yuan/ton, with an average of 7.02 million yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton [2] - On September 12, 2025 (Argentine local time), Zijin Mining's Lithium Industry Kesi 3Q lithium salt lake project with an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate was put into operation. The second - phase project with a planned capacity of 40,000 tons/year is in the pre - work stage. After full operation of both phases, the annual capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is -1, within the range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4] Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamental supply - demand pattern is good. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The sharp decline in the market on the day was mainly affected by the expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines. The mid - term supply - demand shows an over - supply cycle, and the market may be weak and volatile after the mine resumes production and consumption support weakens [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 69,040 yuan/ton and closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, with a - 4.87% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 751,480 lots, and the open interest was 340,814 lots (351,340 lots the previous day). The current basis was 3,330 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,101 lots with no change from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,500 - 75,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,600 - 71,800 yuan/ton, both down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 805 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The downstream material factories' price - fixing enthusiasm increased significantly. In September, the market showed simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and the overall supply of lithium carbonate was still tight. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, while that from lithium mica decreased to 15% [1] Strategy - The short - term supply - demand pattern is good. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increases, and that from mica decreases in the short term. The consumption end is in the peak season with good downstream production schedules. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The mid - term over - supply cycle remains unchanged, and the market may be weak and volatile later [2]