Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In June, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month, reaching $720.1 billion, reversing a 0.9% decline in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.1% [2][3] - Year-over-year, retail sales grew by 3.9%, up from 3.3% in May, indicating a sustained recovery in consumer spending [2] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and parts, rose by 0.5%, surpassing the expected 0.3% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The retail sector showed a mixed performance, with health and personal care stores seeing a 7.1% year-over-year increase, while gas stations and electronics stores experienced declines of 4.0% and 1.5%, respectively [2][3] - Non-store retailers (online merchants) reported a 4.5% year-over-year sales increase, and food services and drinking places grew by 6.6%, highlighting the ongoing vitality of online and service consumption [2] Group 3: Trade Price Trends - The import price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month in June, ending a 0.4% decline in May, with non-fuel import prices increasing by 0.1% [6][7] - Export prices showed stronger performance, increasing by 0.5% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, marking the highest level since January 2025 [6][7] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The synchronized recovery in retail and trade price data underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy amid tariff uncertainties, with strong consumer demand supporting import needs [7] - The long-term low energy prices may suppress investment willingness in related sectors, while ongoing tariff concerns could shift from short-term consumption stimulation to long-term confidence suppression [7]

Economic Growth - China's GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The performance of China's economy indicates a strong resilience against the impacts of the US-China trade war, supported by increased domestic investment in large projects and robust export growth [2][3] - The data suggests that China is on track to achieve the government's annual growth target of around 5% [2] Trade Performance - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade (imports and exports) reached 21.79 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, setting a historical high for the same period [3] - Despite ongoing trade tensions with the US, China's export resilience is highlighted, with exports accounting for 16% of the global total [3] - China's high-tech manufacturing sector has shown significant growth, with an increase of 9.7%, indicating a successful transition to higher value-added production [3] Export Dynamics - Following the trade truce agreement in May, China's exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year in June, demonstrating strong export resilience [2] - Chinese automotive sales in the EU continue to rise, despite the upcoming additional taxes on electric vehicles from China, reflecting the growing demand for Chinese cars in the European market [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper continued its weak oscillating trend, hitting a low of 77,690. It has reversed all the gains since late June due to the early implementation of US tariffs, which pressured both the Shanghai and London markets. The premium between the spot and futures of Shanghai copper has significantly narrowed, and the spread between contracts 08 - 09 has dropped to 100. The LME 0 - 3 contango structure has widened to 62. Meanwhile, the macro - tariff disturbances have increased, and the US dollar index has slightly risen. The factors that previously drove up the copper price have all reversed. [11] - With the opening of the domestic import window, the tightness in the spot market will continue to ease as imported supplies increase. The ratio of cancelled warrants in the LME market has dropped to 11.4%, and the spread between tomorrow - next also shows a contango structure. It is expected that there will be signs of spot supply relief in both the Shanghai and London markets, weakening the support of the spot end for the copper price. However, the medium - term supply - demand remains strong. China's economic resilience shown in the second - quarter data indicates decent macro - demand performance. Therefore, the previous oscillating range is still expected to strongly support the copper price. [11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper's price has reversed gains since late June, with the spot - futures premium narrowing and spreads changing. The LME market also shows a more obvious contango structure. The macro - environment has become less favorable for copper prices, but the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are still strong, and the previous price range is a strong support. [11] 2. Industry News - The National Energy Administration has officially included the Ganjiang - Gannan 1000 - kV UHV AC power transmission and transformation project in the national power development plan. The project plans to build a 1000 - kV substation in Gannan with 2 transformers of 3 million kVA each and 2 1000 - kV AC transmission lines about 600 kilometers long, which is a key step in expanding the UHV backbone grid in Central China during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. [12] - Zhongtiaoshan maintained stable production in the first half of the year, achieving full - load processing of concentrates. Cathode copper production reached 100.51% of the plan, anode slime production reached 116.99% of the plan, gold content in anode slime reached 100.07% of the plan, and silver content in anode slime reached 126.64% of the plan. Its operating income increased by 8.45% year - on - year, achieving stable profitability. [12] - Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton/year anode copper renovation project is in the pre - project stage, and Liangshan Copper's 125,000 - ton/year cathode copper refining project is accelerating, aiming for trial production by the end of the year. [13] - In June 2025, China imported 2.35 million physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of copper ore concentrates reached 14.754 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.4%. [13]

Group 1 - The strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and China is deepening, focusing on enhancing bilateral economic relations amidst complex global geopolitical and trade dynamics [2][5] - The chairman of the Saudi-Chinese Business Council emphasizes the importance of cooperation in mining, manufacturing, and advanced technology sectors, aligning with Saudi Arabia's industrialization goals [3][8] - The need for multilateral cooperation is highlighted as a response to rising protectionism and globalization challenges, with both countries committed to a win-win development approach [5][8] Group 2 - Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 aims to diversify its economy away from oil dependency, promoting sustainable development and encouraging private sector investment in renewable energy [9] - The potential for collaboration in clean energy is significant, leveraging Saudi Arabia's renewable resources and China's advanced technology in the sector [9] - Financial technology development is seen as a key area for enhancing bilateral trade and investment, with both countries recognizing the importance of digital solutions and payment systems [9]

Group 1: Stock and Bond - Stock index long positions are recommended as data reflects China's economic resilience and market risk aversion eases [2] - Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly as market interest rates consolidate and Treasury bonds rebound narrowly [2] Group 2: Black Sector - Shanxi's mainstream steel mills limit crude steel production by about 6 million tons, and the supply of finished products may shrink under the "anti-involution" trend. The black sector has risen significantly driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Gold - Market risk aversion rebounds due to Trump's tax increase letters, boosting the gold price. Gold is expected to maintain high-level volatility [4] Group 4: Log - Log spot market prices are weak, with a 10-yuan decline in the Jiangsu market. Supply pressure eases, and the impact of log futures delivery on prices should be noted [5] Group 5: Rubber - Weather in Southeast Asian rubber-producing areas eases, but the natural rubber price remains under pressure as supply-demand contradictions are not significantly alleviated [6] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The estimated reduction in US soybean planting area is limited, and the soybean production outlook is positive. With high imports and rising inventory, bean meal is expected to be weak [7] Group 7: Oil and Chemicals - Oil prices face a callback risk, and PX, PTA, and MEC are affected by supply-demand changes and cost fluctuations [8] Group 8: Pig - The pig price may continue to rise in the short term, and southern China may lead a new round of price increases after July [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market showed strong performance in June, with job additions exceeding market expectations, boosting confidence in economic resilience and driving up the dollar and major U.S. stock indices [1][2] Employment Report Highlights - Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, and revised May data to 144,000 [2] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, the lowest level since February 2025 [2] - Wage growth showed signs of slowing, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, both below May's growth and market expectations [2] - Labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, the lowest since 2022, raising concerns about the breadth of economic recovery [2] - Private sector job growth was weak, adding only 74,000 jobs, the lowest since October 2024 [2] - Manufacturing employment continued to decline, indicating pressure in certain economic sectors [2] Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the dollar strengthened, with the USD index rising approximately 0.6% [5] - Major U.S. stock indices reached new highs during intraday trading but showed caution near the close as investors digested signals of slowing wage growth and declining labor participation [5] - Macro uncertainties remain, particularly with the upcoming expiration of U.S. tariff suspensions on July 9, raising concerns about potential trade risks [5] Interest Rate Outlook - Despite the mixed signals in the employment data, the overall strong performance has led to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline [2] - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 66.7%, slightly down from earlier in the week, while the probability of maintaining rates in July has risen to 94.8% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic suggests that maintaining a wait-and-see approach to interest rates is appropriate, particularly in light of the economy's resilience [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - The economy is showing resilience, which influences the decision to keep interest rates steady [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic believes that maintaining a wait-and-see approach to interest rates is appropriate, especially considering the resilience of the economy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - The current economic conditions are characterized by resilience, which supports the decision to keep interest rates steady [1] Monetary Policy - A cautious stance on interest rates is deemed suitable, reflecting the Fed's strategy to monitor economic developments before making further adjustments [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：呼吁在充满不确定性和经济保持韧性之际要有耐心。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase. US economic data and policy decisions influence its short - term rise and fall [14][15]. - Stock Index Futures: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine whether market risk appetite can be further enhanced [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Steel: Steel prices are oscillating. While spot fundamentals are not under significant pressure, there are still medium - and long - term risks in external demand, so caution is advised regarding the height of the steel price rebound [4]. - Copper: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly due to repeated tariff expectations and increased LME squeeze - out expectations [5]. - Crude Oil: Prices are oscillating strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ weekend meeting [6]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Trump will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline; the US June ISM manufacturing PMI is 49; Powell cannot determine if a July rate cut is too early [12][13][14]. - Review: Gold prices rebound due to the weakening of the US dollar index, but short - term upward momentum is insufficient. The decision on a July rate cut depends on the June non - farm payroll report and inflation data [14]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Powell expects tariffs to affect inflation this summer; the US Senate passes Trump's tax reform bill; Trump denies extending the tariff deadline [16][17][19]. - Review: Market risk appetite cools, and the US dollar index remains low in the short term [19]. - Investment Advice: The US dollar remains weak in the short term [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: US June manufacturing activity is slightly better than expected; the number of job vacancies unexpectedly rises; Powell says tariffs will affect prices this summer [21][22][23]. - Review: The US economy shows resilience, and the market continues to wait for non - farm data. There are signs of overheating in market sentiment [23]. - Investment Advice: Be aware of the risk of a market correction [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: The added value of above - scale electronic information manufacturing from January to May increases by 11.1% year - on - year; the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizes regulating low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [24][25]. - Review: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine market risk appetite [26]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The Caixin PMI in June is 50.4; the central bank conducts 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [28][29]. - Review: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Investment Advice: Long positions can be held, and it is advisable to pay attention to the strategy of buying on dips [30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The US processed 203.7 million bushels of soybeans in May [31]. - Review: The market is calm. Brazilian exports are expected to decline in June, and domestic downstream transactions are dull [32]. - Investment Advice: Short - term futures prices continue to oscillate. Pay attention to weather in US soybean - growing areas and Sino - US relations [33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month; Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 53% year - on - year [34][35]. - Review: The oil market continues to oscillate. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline slightly in June, and Indonesian exports are expected to remain high in June [35]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to production growth in producing areas and restocking in consuming areas. Also, watch the results of the US July 8 hearing [35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: Only 3 sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have not cleared their inventories; the expected delivery volume of ICE July raw sugar is the lowest since 2014; sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of June decreased by 22% year - on - year [36][37][38]. - Review: Sugar production in central - southern Brazil decreased due to rain, and there are uncertainties in future sugar production [38]. - Investment Advice: The external market is weak, which will drag down the domestic market, but domestic spot prices are firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: Starch sugar prices are stable, with different trends in different varieties [40]. - Review: Starch enterprises are still in the red, and starch production is expected to gradually reduce to reduce inventory. Downstream demand may increase the operating rate of starch sugar [40]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors on the CS - C spread [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The total land acquisition amount of key real - estate enterprises in the first half of the year increased by 33.3% year - on - year; China's heavy - truck sales in June increased by 30% year - on - year [42][43]. - Review: Steel prices are oscillating, with no significant pressure on the spot market, but medium - and long - term external demand risks remain [44]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to use a rebound - hedging strategy for the spot market [45]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The auction of imported corn starts, with a high成交 rate and premium [45]. - Review: The auction reflects a shortage of spot inventory. If the balance sheet is as expected, the auction volume may not reverse the supply - demand situation [45]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts. When the new - crop production situation is clearer, consider shorting the November and January contracts [45]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: The price of steam coal in northern ports is temporarily stable, and terminal inventory is relatively abundant [46]. - Review: High - temperature power consumption eases coal prices in the short term, and prices are expected to remain stable [46]. - Investment Advice: Coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to high - temperature power consumption [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: The mining plan of the Sino Iron project is unconditionally approved [47][48]. - Review: Iron ore prices continue to oscillate weakly, with seasonal pressure on the fundamentals but no prominent contradictions [48]. - Investment Advice: Iron ore prices are expected to continue weak oscillations in July [48]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The government emphasizes governing low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [49]. - Review: The polysilicon fundamentals are not optimistic, but there have been significant policy changes recently [50]. - Investment Advice: Before leading enterprises jointly cut production, the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to continue holding the PS2508 - 2509 long - spread position [50]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: The production schedule of silicone continues to strengthen [51]. - Review: There are production changes in different regions, and the upper space of the disk is limited [51][52]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Semi - solid batteries are mass - applied in electric light trucks, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and development of related varieties [53][54]. - Review: The demand in July is better than expected, driving the price to rise [54]. - Investment Advice: Short - term lithium prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to avoid short positions or move them to LC2511 and pay attention to buying on dips. Also, consider the LC2509 - LC2511 long - spread position [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: Russia's exports of basic metals to China have increased significantly; a new copper company is established; Chile's copper production in May increased month - on - month [55][57][58]. - Review: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly [58]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to take a bullish approach unilaterally and wait and see for arbitrage [59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: Shanghai launches a subsidy program for electric bicycle trade - ins; battery prices are raised [60][61]. - Review: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long term, and the price may rise [62][63]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and potential Sell Put opportunities. Wait and see for the C - structure and consider external - internal reverse arbitrage [63]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME zinc spread is at a discount; a zinc smelter strike ends; Peru's zinc concentrate production increased in April [63][64]. - Review: Zinc prices oscillate downward. Although the short - term macro sentiment is strong, the medium - term fundamentals are expected to be in surplus [64]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see unilaterally, consider positive arbitrage for spreads, and maintain the external - internal positive arbitrage idea in the medium term [64]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Indonesia proposes an investment plan for nickel mines to the US [65]. - Review: LME and SHFE inventories decrease. The shortage of nickel ore eases, and raw material cost support weakens [66]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds as the medium - term fundamentals are bearish [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: API US crude oil inventories increase [68]. - Review: Oil prices oscillate strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ meeting [68]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price oscillations are expected within a range [69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - News: Sinopec lowers the listing price of pure benzene [70]. - Review: The short - term supply - demand structure of pure benzene is average, and the supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken in the future [70][71]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the release rhythm of new pure benzene capacity, and price fluctuations depend on the oil end and supply disruptions [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreases, and the supply and demand situation is not optimistic [72][73]. - Review: The caustic soda market is oversupplied, and prices may continue to decline [73][74]. - Investment Advice: The rebound of the futures price is limited as the spot price decline has not ended [74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - News: Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, and some are slightly lowered [75]. - Review: Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, and if implemented, inventory pressure will be relieved [77][78]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the bottle chip processing margin by buying on dips [78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - News: The price of imported wood pulp continues to decline [78]. - Review: The fundamentals of pulp are weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [78][79]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals remain weak despite the adjustment of deliverable pulp varieties [79]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - News: The price of PVC powder in the domestic market decreases [80]. - Review: PVC futures oscillate after falling, and the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on July 1 decreases, and the carbon market enables one - way auction trading [81][82]. - Review: One - way auction trading improves market efficiency and liquidity [82]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [82].