每经AI快讯，周一(11月10日)纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.01%，报99.591点。彭博美元指数跌0.06%， 报1218.67点。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to cause the precious metals market to decline. The sharp rise in gold and silver prices today may be due to the short - term liquidity buffer provided by the temporary appropriation bill and the continuous weakening of the U.S. dollar index after breaking through the 100 mark, which boosts the monetary attribute of precious metals. The continuous weakening of the U.S. dollar is expected to boost the precious metals trend, but the optimistic expectation of the government shutdown may weaken the market's safe - haven demand and resist the upward movement of gold prices. Technically, there is a short - term callback risk, and specific price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts are given [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 935.98 yuan/gram, up 14.72; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11719 yuan/kilogram, up 235 [3]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 136657 hands, down 3; those of Shanghai silver are 243217 hands, down 2300. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 110522 hands, up 5914; those of Shanghai silver are 101886 hands, down 3302 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 89616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 609978 kilograms, down 13074 [3]. 3.2现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 928.1 yuan/gram, up 12.15; the spot price of silver is 11607 yuan/kilogram, up 161 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.88 yuan/gram, down 2.57; that of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 112 yuan/kilogram, down 74 [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings are 1042.06 tons, up 1.71; silver ETF holdings are 15088.63 tons, down 25.4 [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions are 266749 contracts, up 339; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions are 52276 contracts, up 738 [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [3]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 31.98%, down 0.42; the 40 - day historical volatility is 26.76%, down 0.03 [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 20.46%, down 1.3; that of at - the - money put options is 20.47%, down 1.27 [3]. 3.5 Industry News - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown until January 30, 2026. The government shutdown has a greater - than - expected impact on the U.S. economy, and the labor department cannot release the non - farm payroll report, which makes the Fed's December interest - rate cut decision difficult [3]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - The hourly RSI of London gold has continued to strengthen and broken through the 90 overbought range. The key resistance level for London gold is $4100, and the strong support level is $4000. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract should focus on the range of 890 - 950 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2512 contract should focus on the range of 11000 - 11900 yuan/kilogram [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall performance of non-ferrous metals was strong. The recent decline of the US dollar index was beneficial for non-ferrous metals [6][7][8]. - For Shanghai copper, the price strengthened in the morning and then fluctuated around 86,500 yuan. The downstream purchasing willingness recovered as the copper price dropped, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased on Monday. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 87,000 yuan mark [7]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the price increased with rising positions, approaching the high of last week. The domestic pricing power for aluminum was relatively strong, so the increase was less than that of copper. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly on Monday. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at last week's high [8]. - For Shanghai nickel, the price fluctuated strongly with a slight increase in positions. Although the non-ferrous metal sector rose as a whole, nickel showed weakness, reflecting the weakness of its fundamentals. The weekly decline of nickel ore port inventory slowed down, and the weekly inventory of nickel futures continued to rise. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 120,000 yuan mark [9]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 10, the social inventory of Mysteel electrolytic copper was 198,300 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from last Thursday [11]. - **Aluminum**: On November 10, the social inventory of Mysteel electrolytic aluminum was 616,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [12]. - **Nickel**: On November 10, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,200 - 123,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,600 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brands of electrowon nickel was in the range of -100 - 400 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased significantly on Monday [13]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report presented charts on domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper注销仓单比例, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warehouse receipt inventory, and other aspects [14][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The report included charts on aluminum basis, aluminum price difference, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [38][28][29]. - **Nickel**: The report showed charts on nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and nickel price difference [40][42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold prices are in a short - term consolidation phase and are expected to continue rising in the medium and long term. Short - term international gold prices are supported at around $4000 per ounce, and prices may reach new highs in the medium and long term [2][8] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Market Performance - Last week, gold prices were mainly in a sideways trend, with international gold prices remaining around $4000 per ounce [3] Macroeconomic Data - As of the end of October 2025, China's foreign exchange reserve scale was $3343.343 billion, up about $470 million from the end of September, an increase of 0.14%. The central bank's gold reserve at the end of October was 74.09 million ounces (about 2304.457 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) [3] Geopolitical Factors - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with Russia strengthening its attacks. The intensification of the conflict in the short term supports gold prices [4] US Economic Situation - The US government shutdown has lasted for 38 days, the longest on record, which has had a significant impact on the economy. In November, the consumer confidence index dropped to 50.3, about 3 percentage points lower than last month and about 30% lower than the same period last year. The US labor market is cooling, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5% [5][6] Dollar Index - The dollar index rebounded above 100 but then weakened again, falling back to around 99.50 last Friday. A weaker dollar is beneficial for the stabilization of gold prices [8]

期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 11 月 10 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价震荡运行 核心观点 | 1 行情回顾 | | --- | | 1.1 周皮走势 . | | 1.2 指标涨跌幅 | | 2 金价震荡运行 . ·· | | 3 其他指标追踪 . | | 4 结论 . | 近期黄金价格呈现震荡整理格局，纽约金围绕 4000 美元关口震 荡，对应沪金围绕 915 元一线震荡。 近期影响金价的因素：1.美联储政策分歧主导市场情绪，美联储 内部对政策前景出现明显分歧。多位官员发表鹰派言论，导 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to the Fed's hawkish stance and a relatively strong US dollar index. For copper, the long - term outlook is positive, supported by macro - economic easing and expected supply contractions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Gold prices are in a high - level consolidation phase, with New York gold mainly fluctuating around the $4,000 key psychological level [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's policy divergence dominates market sentiment, with some officials advocating a restrictive policy to control inflation and others open to rate cuts. The US government shutdown risk provides some safe - haven support for gold, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses gold prices. The short - term pullback of the US dollar index around 100 corresponds to a rebound in gold prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $4,000 level of New York gold [3]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term (within a week), the view is "swing"; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is "swing"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" [1][3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and falling, and the main contract price stabilized around 85,000 yuan, with a slowdown in the decline of open interest [4]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's hawkish stance has cooled the market sentiment, and LME copper is at a five - year high, causing short - term long - position closure. However, in the long - run, macro - economic easing and supply contractions are expected to support copper prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 85,000 yuan level [4]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the view is "bullish"; in the medium - term, it is "strong"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" [1][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101. Its ability to firmly return above 100 depends on the US government's reopening negotiation deadline and the quality of economic data after reopening [1][19]. - This week, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to range from 7.10 to 7.15. Near the end of the year, it may show a "shifting down of the oscillation bottom" trend, with a low probability of significant one - sided depreciation [1][19]. - There's no need to over - worry about the decline in China's import and export data in October. The trade data has short - term "noise", and the export data in October is a replenishment for the high growth in September. The export growth rate may decline in the fourth quarter, but the annual foreign trade is expected to end smoothly [1][19][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - **US Market**: The adjustment of US stocks was triggered by warnings from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley at a summit. The US government shutdown affected data release. ADP employment in October exceeded expectations, but the labor market is under pressure. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut fluctuated, and the US dollar index lost the 100 mark and then rebounded and fell [2][5]. - **European and UK Markets**: The Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.0%, with a 5 - 4 vote split. High inflation in the UK restricted interest - rate cuts. Sweden and Norway also maintained their policies [6]. - **Japanese Market**: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting indicated that the pre - conditions for restarting interest - rate hikes were gradually being met, strengthening the market's expectation of a policy shift and causing fluctuations in the Japanese bond market [6]. - As of November 7, 16:30, the US dollar index depreciated, the on - shore and off - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, while the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound appreciated against the US dollar [7]. 3.1.2 Weekly Review of USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate showed an inverted V - shape, fluctuating within the 7.10 - 7.14 range as predicted [15]. 3.1.3 Market Outlook - The short - term trend of the US dollar index and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is as mentioned in the core viewpoints. There's no need to over - worry about the decline in China's import and export data in October [19][21]. 3.2 RMB Market Observation 3.2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.0836, depreciating 44 basis points. The counter - cyclical factor shows that the central bank aims to stabilize the exchange rate [23]. 3.2.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In September 2025, China's foreign exchange market was stable. Cross - border capital flows were active and balanced, and foreign exchange supply and demand were relatively balanced. There was a small net outflow in September due to the holiday, which turned into an inflow in October [26][27]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the depreciation sentiment of overseas investors towards the RMB slightly declined [31]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: The 1 - year NDF closing price of the USD/CNH rose. In the short - to - medium term, the market's sentiment towards RMB appreciation and depreciation changed little, while the long - term appreciation sentiment increased [33]. 3.2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Relevant figures show the trading situation of the Hong Kong Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract [36]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Figures present the trading situation of the Singapore Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract and the basis difference with the Hong Kong Exchange [43]. 3.3 Key Data and Events to Focus On 3.3.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 200 billion yuan. Service trade imports and exports increased in the first three quarters. China announced measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations. Some export control measures were suspended, and some US entities' trade qualifications were restored. In October, foreign trade maintained growth, and foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves increased [47][48]. - **US**: The number of corporate layoffs reached a high level since 2020. The ISM manufacturing PMI in October was in contraction, ADP employment exceeded expectations, the ISM services PMI reached a new high, and consumer confidence was at a low level [49][50]. - **UK**: No significant events [51]. - **Eurozone**: The manufacturing PMI in October was 50, and the services PMI drove the composite PMI to a new high. Germany's service industry recovered strongly, while France's was in contraction [51]. - **Japan**: Nominal wages increased in September, supporting the Bank of Japan's tightening policy [52]. - **Others**: South Korea's CPI accelerated in October, which may lead to the central bank continuing to suspend interest - rate cuts [53]. 3.3.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Key Statements Summary - **China's Central Bank**: No relevant statements [54]. - **Federal Reserve**: Different Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the December decision [54][55]. - **Bank of Japan**: The prime minister hoped for appropriate policies, and the meeting minutes showed a cautious attitude towards interest - rate hikes [56]. - **European Central Bank**: Officials believed there was no reason to adjust borrowing costs but remained vigilant about inflation [57]. - **Bank of England**: The bank kept the interest rate at 4%, with internal differences intensifying and increasing the expectation of a December interest - rate cut [58]. - **Others**: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the key interest rate unchanged and warned of inflation pressure [59]. 3.3.3 Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Focus on This Week - A series of important economic data from different regions such as the UK unemployment rate, China's M2 money supply, and the US CPI are to be released this week [60]. 3.4 International Market Conditions 3.4.1 Major Countries' Exchange Rate Conditions - Figures show the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against major currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound [62][64][68]. 3.4.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Figures display the trends of assets such as London gold, VIX, WTI crude oil, and the S&P 500 index [83][84][87]. 3.4.3 Capital Situation - Figures present the central bank's open - market operations, Shibor, and SOFR quotes [92][94]. 3.4.4 China - US Interest Rate Spread - Figures show the trends of the China - US interest rate spread and the yields of 10 - year Chinese and US Treasury bonds [96][97]. 3.4.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - Figures show the trends of the CFETS, BIS, and SDR RMB exchange rate indices [100]. 3.4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Figures show the monthly value of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in relevant measures [102][104].

Group 1: Dollar Index Insights - The recent rise in the dollar index is primarily driven by U.S. internal policy expectations and economic data support, with the Fed's rate cut expectations dropping from 82% to 67% for December[1] - October ADP private sector employment increased by 42,000, exceeding the market expectation of 30,000, indicating a stable job market[1] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI index also surpassed expectations, suggesting continued economic strength in the U.S.[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Risk Factors - U.S. government shutdown has led to a significant liquidity squeeze, with the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance rising from $800 billion to $1 trillion, while bank reserves fell to a record low of $2.8 trillion[1] - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged to 4.22%, exceeding the policy rate range of 3.75%-4.0%[1] - Geopolitical uncertainties in non-U.S. economies, such as the weakening of the British pound and euro, have further strengthened the dollar's relative position[1] Group 3: Market Performance Overview - For the week of November 1 to November 8, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.83%, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.63%[2] - The dollar index decreased by 0.19%, and the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.04% during the same period[2] - Commodity prices saw declines, with WTI crude oil down by 2.02% and SHFE rebar down by 2.27%[2] Group 4: Inventory and Positioning - Recent oil inventory levels reached 44.355 million tons, increasing by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a rise in dollar long positions to 14,032 contracts, up by 1,541 contracts, while short positions decreased to 24,376 contracts[3] - Gold ETF holdings increased to 3,350 million ounces, reflecting a rise of 90,000 ounces[3]

Group 1 - The gold market is in a "pre-war state" with international spot gold reaching $3998 per ounce, just shy of the $4000 mark, and domestic gold contracts rising to 918 yuan per gram, up 1.3% from the previous day [1] - The upcoming U.S. GDP data is expected to be a significant catalyst for gold prices, with mixed market sentiment as some anticipate a breakout above $4050 while others expect a dip [3] - Central bank gold purchases are providing strong support for gold prices, with the Chinese central bank increasing its gold holdings for 12 consecutive months and global central banks buying 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [4] Group 2 - Retail investors are often making poor trading decisions, such as chasing prices without considering transaction costs, which can lead to losses even when gold prices rise [5] - Practical advice for gold purchases includes waiting for potential price dips after the GDP announcement and being cautious with investment strategies, such as not exceeding 15% of total assets in gold [6] - Maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial, as short-term fluctuations may not indicate a sustained bull market, and investors should focus on meeting their price expectations rather than trying to time the market perfectly [6] Group 3 - The market is at a critical juncture, and maintaining composure is more valuable than gold itself, as emotional trading can lead to poor decisions [7]

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，11月7日纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.16%报99.55，非美货币多数上涨。欧元兑美元涨0.15%报 1.1565，英镑兑美元涨0.19%报1.3164，澳元兑美元涨0.22%报0.6494，美元兑日元涨0.24%报153.4275， 美元兑加元跌0.51%报1.4046，美元兑瑞郎跌0.14%报0.8051。 ...