Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Update - Bitcoin has surpassed $125,110, reaching a historical high with a 2.25% increase [1][2] - Ethereum has increased by 1.4%, while Dogecoin and SOL have risen over 2%, and HYPE has surged nearly 4% [3][2] - In the last 24 hours, approximately 120,000 traders faced liquidation, totaling $347 million [3][4] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown due to a lack of funding, marking the first shutdown in seven years [5] - The shutdown is affecting the release of key economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report and CPI data [5][6] - Analysts warn that a prolonged shutdown could add uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [6][7] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials are divided on the need for aggressive rate cuts, with some advocating for a more accommodative monetary environment [7][8] - The Fed recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% to 4.25% [7] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of further rate cuts by the end of the year, with a 96.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [9]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Overview - Bitcoin has surpassed $125,000, reaching a historical high with a 2.25% increase [1][2] - Ethereum has increased by 1.4%, while Dogecoin and SOL have risen over 2% [2] - The total market capitalization for Bitcoin is approximately $94.19 billion, reflecting a 4.6% increase [2] Group 2: Liquidation Events - In the last 24 hours, nearly 120,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $347 million [3][4] - The total liquidation amount over 24 hours includes $120 million from long positions and $220 million from short positions [4] Group 3: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown due to a lack of funding, marking the first shutdown in seven years [5] - The shutdown is affecting the release of key economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report [5][8] - Analysts warn that a prolonged shutdown could lead to significant uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [5][7] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials are divided on the need for aggressive rate cuts, with some advocating for a more accommodative monetary policy [7][9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is at 96.2%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 3.8% [9]

Group 1 - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown has significantly increased following the Senate's rejection of the Democratic funding bill, with a Republican proposal for a seven-week funding extension set for a vote [1][2] - If Congress fails to pass a temporary funding bill by the deadline, parts of the federal government will shut down, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees who may be forced to take unpaid leave [1][2] - The Trump administration has outlined detailed plans for dealing with the shutdown, including the suspension of economic data releases by the Labor Department during the shutdown period [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts warn that the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy due to the potential government shutdown is driving investors towards precious metals, resulting in record-high gold prices [3] - The dollar index has been declining, with a reported value of 97.7704, indicating a potential four-day losing streak [4] - At least eight U.S. cabinet departments have prepared detailed shutdown plans, affecting over 400,000 non-essential employees [4][6] Group 3 - The Department of Health and Human Services has stated that new patients will not be accepted for clinical research during the shutdown, and public health information will be limited [6] - The Labor Department will suspend the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, which is scheduled for October 3 [6] - The Social Security Administration will place approximately 6,000 of its 51,000 employees on unpaid leave during the shutdown [7] Group 4 - The Department of Veterans Affairs will continue benefits and medical care during the shutdown, but maintenance of cemeteries will cease [8] - The IRS will continue operations during the shutdown due to funding secured through the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides funding until 2031 [8] - Deutsche Bank estimates that a full government shutdown could reduce quarterly annualized GDP growth by approximately 0.2 percentage points per week if 800,000 federal employees are furloughed [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Holiday - eve saw a divergence in the Shanghai precious metals market, with the Shanghai gold futures main - contract price hitting a new record high and the upward momentum of silver slowing [2]. - Geopolitical factors: If the peace agreement between the US and Israel makes substantial progress, the safe - haven premium of precious metals may decline, and a short - term correction is possible. The potential US government shutdown due to the lack of short - term funding has heightened market risk aversion [2]. - Fed officials emphasized the risk of inflation rebound, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts and a data - dependent path. The recent strong US economic data has slightly reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may hinder the upward movement of gold prices [2]. - The US 8 - month core PCE data met market expectations. Although the interest rate cut expectation declined marginally due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the PCE data's mildness secured a 25bps interest rate cut in the next FOMC meeting [2]. - The gold and silver ETFs in the external market had significant net inflows, and market bullish sentiment remained high. The market focus is on US economic data and Fed policies. Weak non - farm payrolls this week would increase the probability of further interest rate cuts and boost precious metals, while high inflation and economic resilience could lead to a rebound in the US dollar and bond yields and put downward pressure on precious metals [2]. - In the long - term, the US fiscal deficit, debt issues, tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. Silver generally follows gold, and the structural demand in the photovoltaic and new - energy sectors may bring additional elasticity when the global manufacturing industry stabilizes. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and beware of short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold futures main contract was 874.4 yuan/gram, up 7.88 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver futures main contract was 10918 yuan/kg, down 21 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 256,876 lots, down 6,344 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 476,244 lots, down 32,723 lots. The net positions of the top 20 traders in the Shanghai gold main contract were 166,413 lots, down 1,306 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 105,881 lots, up 6,986 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The gold warehouse receipts were 70,728 kg, up 2,100 kg; the silver warehouse receipts were 1,192,282 kg, up 2,634 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 872.95 yuan/gram, up 15.92 yuan; the silver spot price was 10,913 yuan/kg, up 143 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold futures main contract was - 1.45 yuan/gram, up 8.04 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver futures main contract was - 5 yuan/kg, up 164 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 1,011.73 tons, up 6.01 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,521.35 tons, up 159.51 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver were 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 13.38%, down 0.71 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.45%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 21.12%, up 1.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.11%, up 1.53 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump and Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting, and a peace plan was proposed. If implemented, the war would end immediately, and Israeli troops would withdraw to the agreed - upon border [2]. - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on overseas - made movies and large tariffs on countries where furniture is not made in the US [2]. - The value of the US Treasury's 261.5 million ounces of gold reserves exceeded $1 trillion. A market - value revaluation would release about $990 billion in funds for the US Treasury [2]. - Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts. Hamack opposed rate cuts due to inflation concerns, Musalem was open to future rate cuts but cautious, and Williams said monetary policy remained tight [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of US economic data cannot change the general trend of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the bullish pattern of precious metals will continue [2][7][8] 3. Summary Based on Related Content Precious Metals Price Performance - Last week, the prices of gold and silver continued to strengthen. The international gold price closed at $3,789 per ounce, and the international silver price closed at $46 per ounce [3] Fed's Policy and Related Speeches - Fed Chairman Powell stated last week that the increasing downside risk in the job market was the key reason for the Fed's interest rate cut. He said this was a step towards a "neutral" policy stance and emphasized that there was no preset direction for future policies. His speech caused a slight rebound in the US dollar, but it won't change the Fed's trend of further interest rate cuts [4] Key Events During the National Day Holiday - During the upcoming National Day holiday in China, the US will release September non - farm payroll data. Since the August non - farm employment was very poor and the unemployment rate reached 4.3%, if the September data is still not ideal, it will increase the expectation of another interest rate cut in October. Also, the minutes of the September Fed's interest rate meeting will be released, which can show the basis for the Fed's September interest rate cut decision and possible future policies [5] Other Influential Factors - The US debt ceiling issue is a point of contention between the two parties. If no consensus is reached by the end of September, the US government may shut down on October 1st, which could affect the financial market [6] - Trump's sudden change of stance on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, starting to take a tougher line on Russia, means that ending the conflict remains difficult and will continue to support the gold price [6] - Last Friday's US economic data showed good short - term economic indicators, with a decline in the number of initial jobless claims, an upward revision of GDP, and a slight rebound in prices. The US dollar and Treasury yields rebounded initially, but the US dollar index closed significantly lower, and precious metal prices rose, indicating that the market believes the short - term economic rebound is not enough to make the Fed change its interest rate - cut plan [8]

Economic Overview - Strong U.S. economic data has cooled interest rate cut expectations, with the Fed's hawkish comments and Powell's assessment of high stock valuations leading to a volatile week for U.S. markets[1] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q2 2025 was significantly revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, driven by increased consumer and investment contributions[1] - The PCE inflation index for August matched expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with the previous value[1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.3% and 0.7% respectively, while gold prices rose by 2% to $3,760 per ounce during the week[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 4.8 basis points to 4.176%, and the 2-year yield rose by 7 basis points to 3.64%[1] - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.5% to 98.15, reflecting a rebound in the dollar[1] Analyst Expectations - Analysts have raised U.S. growth expectations for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting a growth rate of 3.4% for Q3 2025[1] - The consensus among analysts indicates a 34% probability of a U.S. recession within the next year, a slight increase from the previous 32%[1] - Expectations for Fed rate cuts have been adjusted, with analysts predicting two cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, aligning with the Fed's dot plot guidance[1] Upcoming Data - Key U.S. employment data, including non-farm payrolls and PMI, will be released during the National Day holiday, which are critical for the October FOMC meeting[2] - Analysts expect September non-farm payrolls to show a modest increase of 50,000 jobs, indicating a balanced labor market despite ongoing concerns[2] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes from Trump, excessive Fed rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week is critical for economic indicators, including U.S. non-farm payrolls, ADP employment data, and PMI figures from both China and the U.S. The potential government shutdown in the U.S. could delay the release of these key economic data points, adding uncertainty to market expectations and Federal Reserve policy decisions [6][12]. Economic Indicators - On September 30, China will release its official manufacturing PMI for September, with the previous month's figure at 49.4. Market attention will focus on whether the index can return to expansion territory, particularly regarding new orders and pricing trends under the "anti-involution" policy [9]. - The U.S. will announce its September ADP employment data on October 1, following a disappointing increase of 5.4 million jobs in August, which was below market expectations [8]. - The ISM manufacturing index for September will also be released on October 1, with the previous month's index at 48.7, indicating contraction for six consecutive months. The market will look for signs of improvement in new orders [7]. Government Events - The U.S. federal government is at risk of a shutdown on October 1 if Congress does not pass a temporary spending bill by September 30. The current political deadlock over healthcare spending has raised the likelihood of a shutdown to over 75% [11][12]. - If the government shuts down, it could lead to delays in the release of critical economic data, which may impact GDP growth and Federal Reserve policy decisions [12]. Company News - Yushutech, a leading company in the robotics sector, plans to submit its IPO application between October and December 2025 [15]. - South Korea has implemented a temporary visa waiver policy for Chinese group tourists starting September 29, which will last until June next year, potentially boosting tourism-related sectors [16]. Market Impact - The upcoming long holiday in China, from October 1 to 8, is expected to drive a surge in domestic travel bookings, indicating a vibrant tourism market during this period [14].

Group 1 - The current trading price of spot silver is above $45.00, with a slight decline of 0.18% reported at $45.08 per ounce, after opening at $45.17 [1] - The highest price reached today was $45.19, while the lowest was $44.51, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] Group 2 - The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the U.S. in Q2 is 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.3% [3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for the same period is reported at 2.6%, slightly above the expected 2.5% [3] - Personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.68 percentage points to the GDP growth, accounting for nearly half of the overall increase, significantly higher than the previously reported 1.07 percentage points [3] - The annualized quarterly rate of personal consumption expenditures increased from 1.6% to 2.5% [3] Group 3 - The silver price is facing strong resistance in the $44.50 to $45.00 range, with signs of a short-term pullback [4] - The overall moving average system remains in a bullish arrangement, but the RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone, suggesting a potential slowdown in upward momentum [4] - A drop below the support level of $44.20 could lead to further corrections targeting $43.50, while a breakout above $45.00 could push prices towards the $46.20 high [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. stock indices fell due to better-than-expected economic data, which dampened expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.38%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.50%, and the Nasdaq Composite also dropped by 0.50% as of the market close on the 25th [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, significantly lower than the expected 235,000, indicating a stronger labor market [1] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, the best performance in nearly two years, driven by stronger personal consumption expenditures [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October decreased to approximately 87%, down from 92% the previous day [2] - Recent economic data has raised doubts about the necessity and extent of potential future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher, maintaining above the 5-day moving average, indicating a bullish outlook despite weakening bullish signals from indicators [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $3735.78 per ounce, reached a daily high of $3761.31, and a low of $3722.16, ultimately closing at $3749.12, with a daily range of $39.15 and a gain of $13.34, or 0.36% [3]. Influencing Factors - The decline in initial jobless claims and a significant upward revision of the U.S. Q2 GDP contributed to a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which pressured gold prices initially. However, buying support from bargain hunters and safe-haven demand led to a recovery in gold prices [3]. Market Outlook - On September 26, gold prices showed weakness in early trading, with expectations of continued volatility. The bullish outlook is temporarily hindered by resistance levels and the recent strength of the dollar index, suggesting that gold may remain in a range until it breaks above $3780 or tests the support of the 10-day and 30-day moving averages [3]. Upcoming Data - Key data to watch includes the U.S. August core PCE price index and the final value of the September University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Market expectations remain unchanged, but recent positive data trends suggest a likelihood of better-than-previous values, which could negatively impact gold prices [3].