【要闻速递】 另外美国经济分析局（BEA）官网最新经济数据发布安排显示，该国2025年第三季度GDP初值及企业利 润初值将于12月23日上午8:30（北京时间21:30）发布。该报告将取代原定11月26日发布的第三季度 GDP修正值及企业利润初值。另外，原定12月19日发布的第三季度GDP终值、分行业GDP及企业利润修 正值将调整发布时间，具体日期该机构暂未更新。 由于此前美国政府停摆，大量重磅数据被推迟发布，本周将迎来密集补数据窗口。 周二将公布的美国经济数据包括9月零售销售、9月生产者价格指数、成屋待完成销售、里士满联储商业 调查、月度房价指数、消费者信心指数、制造业和贸易库存以及月度财政部预算报表。 周三将公布每周申领失业救济人数报告、耐用品订单、第三季度GDP第二预估、经济先行指标报告、芝 加哥供应管理学会商业调查、个人收入和支出（包括关键通胀指标）、新住宅销售、美国能源部每周流 动能源股报告以及美联储的褐皮书。 今日周二(11月25日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于51.42一线上方，今日开盘于51.37美元/盎司，截至 发稿，现货白银暂报51.55美元/盎司，上涨0.40%，最高触及51.58美元/ ...

新华财经北京11月25日电美国国债收益率周一（11月24日）延续跌势，10年期美债收益率跌2.69个基 点，报4.03%，创月内新低。2年期美债收益率跌0.64个基点，报3.50%，与10年期美债利差收窄2个基点 至53个基点。 沃勒拥有对货币政策的投票权，并且是下一任美联储主席的候选人之一。 （文章来源：新华财经） CME"美联储观察"显示的美联储12月降息25个基点的概率在周一升至超过八成，前一日为接近七成。 美联储理事沃勒当天的相关表态提振了市场降息预期。 市场等待本周即将集中发布的一系列重要经济数据，包括美国9月零售销售数据、生产者价格指数、消 费者信心指数、个人收入和支出数据，以及美联储褐皮书等。 沃勒表示，他主张在12月实施一次降息，不过之后的政策路径应采取逐次会议的形式。"自上次会议以 来，我们获得的大多数私营部门数据和零星信息都显示情况没有实质性变化。劳动力市场疲软，并在持 续走弱，通胀预计将继续回落。"沃勒说，虽然这使得12月降息显得合理，但1月可能会更棘手，因为届 时会发布大量数据。如果这些数据与现有趋势一致，那可以为1月再降息提供依据；但如果突然显示通 胀或就业反弹，或经济转向强劲增长， ...

Group 1 - Gold prices are weakening and are expected to record a weekly decline due to a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in December [1] - As of the report, spot gold has decreased by 0.3% to $4,059.86 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of approximately 1% for the week [1] - The mixed U.S. employment report has diminished hopes for a rate cut in December, leading gold to continue its downward trend [1] Group 2 - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that there is still a possibility of a rate cut "in the near term," which has significantly raised market expectations for a December rate cut [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released showed an increase of 119,000 jobs in September, far exceeding the expected 50,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.3% to 4.4%, but remains within the Federal Reserve's expected range [3] Group 3 - The latest analysis suggests that gold prices are attempting to regain momentum, with traders needing to push prices above the $4,100 mark for a potential rally [4] - If gold surpasses $4,100, the next target will be $4,150, followed by testing the previous cycle high of $4,245 set on November 13 [4] - Should gold fail to hold above $4,100, it may decline to $4,050 and subsequently test the support level at the 50-day simple moving average of $3,981 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in international gold prices have left new investors confused, with a significant drop in mid-October followed by a weak rebound in November, raising concerns about future price movements [1] Current Status of International Gold Prices - International gold prices are currently experiencing weak rebounds and face short-term downward pressure, primarily due to a decrease in market risk aversion [2] - A technical analysis indicates three bearish signals: a "death cross" in MACD indicators, the price falling below multiple short-term moving averages, and a larger correction in October compared to April, reflecting insufficient market confidence [2] Key Price Levels - Investors should focus on two critical price levels: - The short-term support level at $4000 per ounce, which is likely to be breached, potentially leading to a drop to the $3900 per ounce range [4] - A strong support level between $3885 and $3880 per ounce, represented by the 60-day moving average, which has historically provided significant support [4] Potential Price Movements - If the 60-day moving average holds, potential rebound targets are set at $4040-$4050 per ounce and $4100-$4140 per ounce, with the latter facing considerable resistance [6] Core Influencing Factors - The primary factors affecting international gold prices include: - Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, which are currently not leaning towards a rate cut, impacting gold prices negatively [8] - The strength of the US dollar, which typically inversely correlates with gold prices; recent dollar strength may face resistance, potentially allowing for gold price rebounds [8] - Upcoming US economic data, which will significantly influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies and, consequently, gold prices [8] Future Scenarios for Gold Prices - Two potential scenarios for gold prices based on upcoming US economic data: - A pessimistic scenario where strong employment data and rising inflation lead to expectations of no rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices below $4000 per ounce and targeting $3750 per ounce [10] - An optimistic scenario where weak employment data and falling inflation raise expectations for a rate cut, possibly allowing gold prices to break through the $4150-$4200 per ounce resistance and target $4500-$4600 per ounce [10]

Core Insights - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate significant disagreement regarding future interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping to around 30% [1][3] - The latest employment data from the U.S. Labor Department presents conflicting signals, which diminishes expectations for a December rate cut and increases the likelihood of the Fed adopting a wait-and-see approach [1][5] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - Several participants at the October meeting suggested that if economic performance aligns with expectations, a further reduction in the federal funds rate target range in December could be appropriate. However, many others indicated that maintaining the current target range for the remainder of the year would be more suitable [3] - The minutes reveal a weaker inclination towards a December rate cut, as the term "many" implies a larger number than "several," indicating a divided stance among committee members [3] - The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% in October and plans to stop reducing its balance sheet from December, reallocating MBS funds into short-term Treasury securities to optimize liquidity [3] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 52,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [5] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, slightly above prior expectations [5] - The conflicting employment data has weakened the December rate cut expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 50.1% to 32.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 67.2% [5]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月20日｜历经破纪录的停摆期后，美国政府已重新运转，标志着分析美国经济健康状况与发展 轨迹的关键指标即将陆续发布。"这段时间就像在迷雾中盲飞，"穆迪分析公司首席经济学家Mark Zandi 感叹道，"我们完全失去了导航工具。"Zandi称，私营机构的数据让人们对官方数据可能呈现的结果有 了心理准备；但若实际数据与预期不符，市场可能出现剧烈震荡。"如果官方数据与预期吻合，那就皆 大欢喜，"他说道，"但倘若公布的数据——无论是向好还是向坏——偏离我们的预期，都可能引发市场 对政府停摆期间美联储政策效果的质疑。" ...

短期上，由于美联储12月降息预期明显下降，大概率可能不降息，将会在年底打压金价多头，使其维持 震荡调整。 不过，虽然12月降息并非"板上钉钉"。但美联储并没有放言结束宽松周期，而是多数官员认为随着时间 的推移会进一步放松政策，这说明降息周期仍然存在，金价的看涨前景依然良好，只是需要时间等待。 技术上，周线级别，金价上周冲高回落倒垂收线，本周受此压力先行表现走低，但目前受到10周均线支 撑反弹回升，这暗示后市仍有再度走强前景预期，再加上上行趋势保持不变，故此，如跌破10周均线支 撑，进一步走低触及中轨线等支撑附近，也是再度入场看涨的机会。 日图；金价目前整体是处于一定的震荡三角趋势行情中，短期将维持在此趋势内的上下阻力与支撑进行 多空操作，中期方向上方关注4230美元阻力能否突破持稳，下方关注3930美元能否跌破，来顺势跟进看 涨新高，还是进一步走低触及支撑再看涨。 今日周四，黄金开盘先行走强，重回30日均线上方，延续隔夜尾盘回升之力，但目前无持续的利好因 素，需等待晚间公布9月的非农和就业数据，以及上周初请数据来指引方向。 目前市场预期整体数据将利空金价，并且之后公布的美国11月费城联储制造业指数和美国10月 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The U.S. employment data affects the interest - rate cut expectations, leading to a slight increase in copper prices. Copper production shows an increasing trend, and as the demand side is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, the fundamentals limit the rebound space. With the release of U.S. economic data and the approaching of the interest - rate meeting, the trend of copper prices will become clearer [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18 were 232,000, and the continued jobless claims were 1.957 million, an increase from the previous week. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons and an expected maintenance impact of 48,000 tons. However, some enterprises that underwent maintenance in October are resuming production, and with the increase in copper prices, production enthusiasm is rising, so output is expected to increase. The supply of scrap copper has increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. The rise in copper prices has restricted downstream consumption, and except for the power and power battery new - energy sectors, downstream demand is weak. In October 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 134,304 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.8%, and imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, showing strength during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 70 yuan/ton, and in South China was 35 yuan/ton. On November 18, 2025, the LME official price was $10,690/ton, and the spot premium was - $41/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of November 17, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.82/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 58,400 tons, a decrease of 2,522 tons from the previous period. As of November 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 111,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 140,500 tons, an increase of 325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 389,300 short tons, an increase of 3,221 short tons from the previous period [9].

本报记者 刘琪 近期，国际金价呈现先扬后抑的走势。Wind资讯数据显示，伦敦金现货价格在11月10日至11月12日连续上涨，11月13日盘 中冲高至4245.22美元/盎司后开始回落。11月18日，截至记者发稿时（下同），伦敦金现货价格盘中失守4000美元/盎司关口， 最低跌至3997.658美元/盎司。 受国际金价影响，国内金饰价格也大幅回调。"看到金饰价格跌至1300元/克以下，我就过来看看，怕再等下去价格又涨起 来。"11月18日在北京市丰台区一家周大福门店挑选首饰的梁女士对《证券日报》记者说，她最近在某社交平台上被"种草"了 该品牌的四芒星系列饰品，想趁金价回调时机入手。据悉，上周该品牌金饰克价最高升至1333元，而11月18日已经下调至1288 元。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示，两大因素共同导致了近期国际金价表现不佳：一方面，前期避险情 绪对金价的支撑有所减弱；另一方面，美国重要经济数据尚未恢复公布，投资者对劳动力市场和美国通胀走势预期并不一致， 对12月份美联储降息预期也有所摇摆。 市场避险情绪明显减弱 瞿瑞预计，短期来看，国际金价和银价都将会维持震荡格局，主要源于美联储12月 ...

当前趋势主要以短期震荡偏弱：金价在上周五大跌后，本周一处于调整状态。上方受到美联储鹰派言论导致的降息预期降温压制，下方则受到美元走软以及 地缘政治等因素带来的避险需求支撑。 关键阻力位 4110美元、4140美元 关键支撑位 4060美元、4030美元 震荡思路，高抛低吸为主。 对于短线交易，当前市场更偏向于在区间内进行高抛低吸的震荡操作。 如果金价反弹至4110美元至4140美元的阻力区域并出现上涨乏力迹象（比如出现特定的看跌K线形态），可以考虑轻仓试空。止损设置：参考放在4140美元 上方。目标位：可看向4060-4045-4030美元附近。 回调做多机会 如果金价回调至4030美元至4060美元的支撑区域并出现企稳信号（比如小级别图表的看涨K线组合），可以考虑轻仓试多。止损设置：参考放在4030美元下 方。目标位：可看向4100-4110-4030美元上方 今日黄金市场主要呈现震荡格局，短期走势偏弱但中长期上涨基础依然存在。 未来一周，以下事件和数据可能会引起金价较大波动，请密切关注： 反弹做空机会 关键经济数据发布： 9月非农就业报告：将于本周四（11月20日） 公布。这是本周的重中之重，数据结果将显 ...