金十数据7月31日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，美元有望再度上涨，因 为即将公布的数据可能不利于美国近期降息。他表示，北京时间20:30公布的6月份核心PCE物价指数 （美联储常用的通胀指标）可能超出预期。其他值得关注的数据初请失业金人数，此前该数据意外连续 六周下降。这是自2022年8月至9月以来持续时间最长的一次下降，可能表明劳动力市场表现强劲。此 外，周五公布的非农就业数据也可能"足够好"，足以支持美联储继续暂停降息。 荷兰国际银行：即将公布的美国数据可能提振美元 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing analysis of gold prices in the context of improving U.S. economic data and the potential implications of the PCE data [1] Economic Context - U.S. economic data continues to show positive trends, which may influence market expectations and gold prices [1] - The focus is on whether the upcoming PCE data will disrupt this positive momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, which aligns with market expectations [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The voting result for the decision was 9 in favor and 2 against, with one member absent, marking the first time since late 1993 that two members opposed the rate decision [1] - The dissenting votes came from Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who argued for a 25 basis point rate cut [2] Group 2: Economic Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged is influenced by inflation pressures and economic uncertainties in the U.S. [2] - Powell emphasized that the Fed is in a favorable position to observe and will closely monitor U.S. inflation data as a key factor for future monetary policy [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the July meeting, the market's expectation for a September rate cut dropped significantly from 63.3% to 43.2% [3] - Analysts predict a total rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year, with a higher likelihood of a cut in November rather than September [5]

周四（7月31日）亚市盘中，黄金期货延续跌势，最新沪金主力报769.76元/克，跌幅0.43%，美联储召 开7月议息会议，美联储主席鲍威尔货币政策表态偏鹰派，同时昨夜公布的美国经济数据具备韧性，对 于金价形成较强利空因素。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 鲍威尔在议息会议中表态强硬，几乎拒绝透露任何关于九月议息会议货币政策路径的信息，他认为后续 的货币政策路径取决于经济数据，关键在于"把握时机"。 鲍威尔认为劳动力市场状况良好，并表示核心通胀有30%-40%来自于关税。鲍威尔表明目前美国经济需 要适度的限制。 经济数据方面，美国7月ADP就业人数为10.4万人，高于预期的7.5万人以及前值的-2.3万人。受到一季 度抢进口因素消退的影响，美国二季度实际GDP季度环比年化值为3%，大幅高于预期的2.4%与前值 的-0.5%。 【技术分析】 黄金价格短期将面临较强回调压力，沪金主力合约参考运行区间760-794元/克，今日沪金主力上方阻力 关注780-790，下方支撑关注750-760。 本次议息会议中，监管副主席鲍曼以及理事沃勒投下反对票，认为应当进行降息操作，后续两人将会就 反对意见作出解释。 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% and Powell's comments reduced the expectation of a rate cut in September from 65% to 45%, which weakened gold's appeal and increased downward pressure on gold prices [3] - The ADP employment report showed a higher-than-expected increase in private sector jobs for July, and the second quarter GDP growth rate was 3.0%, both of which diminished market expectations for Fed easing and led to gold sell-off [3] - The global macro environment has seen the Trump administration reach several trade agreements and impose high tariffs, which alleviated concerns about the U.S. withdrawing from global affairs, boosting confidence in the dollar but increasing global economic uncertainty [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant decline after a brief correction, indicating a continued weak trend. The 5-day moving average has crossed below multiple longer-term averages, suggesting a bearish outlook [6] - Key resistance is identified at 3310, and as long as gold prices remain below this level, a bearish stance is advised. The primary support level is at 3268, with further support at 3248/3245 if this level is breached [6][7] - On the four-hour chart, gold failed to hold above the previous low of 3302/3301 and instead broke lower, necessitating close monitoring of the downward trend. The key level to watch is 3334, which, if surpassed, could indicate a potential reversal [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has not yet decided on policy adjustments for September, leading to a cooling of market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2023 [1][3]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose 0.4% intraday but closed down 0.12% at 6362.90 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 171.71 points, or 0.38%, to 44461.28 points; the Nasdaq Composite slightly increased by 0.15% to 21129.67 points [1][2]. - The Chinese Golden Dragon Index dropped 1.82% to 7413.12 points, while the Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.89% to 23661.75 points [2]. Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate range, aligning with market expectations, but emphasized the need for further evaluation of tariffs' impact on inflation and the economy [3]. - Powell's comments were interpreted as hawkish, reducing the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September from 64% to 46% according to CME FedWatch [3][4]. - The meeting saw dissent from two Fed governors advocating for a rate cut, indicating internal disagreements on policy timing [8]. Economic Data - The U.S. second-quarter GDP grew by 3%, significantly above the expected 2.4%, with a total GDP of $236,853 billion [11]. - The core PCE price index for the second quarter rose by 2.5%, while the overall PCE index increased by 2.1%, below the expected 2.9% [11]. - July's ADP employment numbers showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 75,000 [12]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, consumer stocks, particularly those sensitive to interest rates, experienced declines, reflecting concerns over potential valuation adjustments if rate cuts do not materialize [9]. - The market's response to the Fed's decision was relatively mild, as many participants had already anticipated the direction of interest rates [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts express concerns about the potential overheating of the market, despite recent highs, suggesting that the rapid sell-off and rebound may not indicate overheating but rather a recovery [16].

Core Insights - The US economy shows strong performance, with the dollar on track for its longest consecutive rise since February [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased by 0.3%, reaching its highest level since June 23, marking five consecutive days of gains [1] - Recent US economic growth and inflation data exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [1] Economic Performance - In Q2, US economic activity rebounded slightly due to a modest increase in consumer spending [1] - The core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose by 2.5% year-on-year [1] - ADP private sector employment data indicates that the labor market remains robust [1] Market Implications - Market perceptions may suggest that the Fed's future rate cuts will be slower and delayed [1] - If Fed Chair Powell maintains a relatively neutral policy outlook, the dollar's interest rate attractiveness may further increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are fluctuating within a range of $3350 to $3300 ahead of key U.S. data and Federal Reserve policy announcements, with a downward trend being observed [2][4]. Market Analysis - The technical outlook for gold prices indicates a downward resistance path, with prices hovering below the critical resistance level of $3345 as traders remain cautious before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement [3][4]. - Following a rebound from a three-week low of $3302, gold prices are under pressure as traders hesitate to establish new positions, awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision on the U.S. Q1 GDP [4][5]. - The U.S. economy is expected to show an annualized growth of 2.4% in Q2, a recovery from a contraction of 0.5% in Q1, while core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are projected at 2.4%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter [4]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Disappointing U.S. economic data could reignite market expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, starting in September, which would likely weaken the dollar and boost gold prices [5]. - Conversely, stronger-than-expected U.S. data may counter these expectations, strengthening the dollar and negatively impacting gold prices [6]. - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% in July, as policymakers assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and growth [7]. Market Sentiment - According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 64% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September [8]. - Divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding rate cuts could strengthen dovish expectations, supporting non-yielding gold prices and potentially raising questions about the Fed's independence, which may negatively affect the dollar [9]. Technical Analysis - The short-term technical outlook for gold prices remains unchanged ahead of the Federal Reserve's decisions, with prices appearing weak below the critical resistance level of $3345 [12][13]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the midpoint, currently near 47, indicating bearish potential [14]. - If selling pressure re-emerges, gold prices may retest the three-week low of $3302, with further declines potentially testing the July 9 low of $3283 [15]. - The last line of defense for gold buyers is at the June 30 low of $3248, while reclaiming the $3345 level is crucial for initiating a meaningful rebound, targeting the next resistance at $3380 and aiming for $3400 [16][17].

Gold Market - Gold prices have continued to decline slightly, but the downward momentum has noticeably slowed, maintaining an overall oscillating pattern [2] - This week, significant data releases including U.S. employment figures, inflation data, and Q2 GDP growth, along with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, may impact market sentiment [2] - Market predictions are generally pessimistic, with the effects of tariff policies on the U.S. economy becoming more apparent [2] - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold this month; a rate cut could raise questions about its independence and potentially lead to a surge in inflation, undermining confidence in the U.S. dollar [2] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bearish candle, indicating a continued oscillating trend, with long-term moving averages acting as a mid-term dividing line [2] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a limited rebound, but fundamental pressures are increasing, potentially leading to a downward break in the long-term trend [4] - OPEC+ representatives have indicated a temporary plan to restore production, with expectations that Saudi Arabia and partners will approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September [4] - If the new production plan is approved, eight core OPEC+ members will fully reverse the 2.2 million barrels per day cut implemented in 2023 a year earlier than planned [4] - Seasonal demand provides some support for oil prices, but weakening consumption may create pressure from both supply and demand sides, with a long-term possibility of prices testing the $55 per barrel level [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a significant decline, indicating that the upward trend is likely complete, although short-term divergence appears excessive [6] - The price has entered a previous small range, forming a downward structure, with a focus on the resistance level at $5.63 per pound [6] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candle, signaling the completion of an upward structure and the beginning of a mid-term adjustment [7] - The 4-hour chart indicates significant overselling, suggesting a potential for adjustment, with attention on the resistance level at 41,260 [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the common concerns of investors regarding losses and market predictions, emphasizing the importance of profitability in investments [1] - It highlights the ongoing search for solutions to recover losses, indicating a persistent struggle among investors [1] Group 2 - A risk data warning is issued for the week, noting significant upcoming economic events including the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada meetings, as well as key economic indicators such as consumer confidence and employment data [3] - The article outlines a schedule of important economic releases, including the PCE price index and non-farm payroll report, which could impact market sentiment [3] Group 3 - The analysis of gold prices indicates a bearish trend, with a significant drop after reaching a key support level, suggesting continued weakness in the market [5] - The article identifies specific price levels for trading strategies, recommending short positions around 3350 with targets set at 3325 and 3310 [7]