公 司 研 究 扬农化工（600486.SH）：一季度业 绩增长，项目建设有序推进 2025 年 4 月 30 日 强烈推荐/维持 扬农化工 公司报告 扬农化工发布 2025 年 1 季报：公司 1 季度实现营业收入 32.41 亿元， YoY+2.04%，归母净利润 4.35 亿元，YoY+1.35%。 农药产品销量增长，但价格小幅下滑，带动公司整体实现增长。分板块看，① 原药：1 季度公司原药产品价格同比下滑 8.77%，销量同比增长 14.82%，带 动营收同比增长 4.75%至 18.06 亿元；②制剂：1 季度公司制剂产品价格同比 下滑 1.63%，销量同比增长 2.77%，带动产品营收同比增长 1.10%至 8.71 亿 元。从利润端看，公司综合毛利率同比小幅增长 0.3 个百分点至 24.64%，带 动净利润增长。 行业尚处周期底部，但是绿色化、国际化与集中度提升也孕育着新机遇。首先， 国家高度重视粮食安全，持续推出农业利好政策以及有利于农药行业创新、绿 色、高质量发展的法律法规。其次，虽然 2024 年全球粮食价格处于周期底部， 但粮食需求中长期需求明确，广大发展中地区居民饮食结构仍有较大改善 ...

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 2.121 billion and a net profit of CNY 165 million, supported by strong sales from the Nanjing Binjiang Yayuan and Rongjin Ruifu projects [3][4] - The company's asset-liability ratio at the end of the reporting period was 32.64%, with a net asset-liability ratio of 29.17%, marking a historical low for the company [4] Business Strategy - The company adheres to a "low debt, high return" operational strategy, focusing on stable real estate development and a regulated medical beauty business as growth engines [3][4] - The medical beauty segment has established a "Six Cities, Six Hospitals" strategic layout, with plans to expand in economically strong regions like the Yangtze River Delta [4] Industry Outlook - The real estate industry is stabilizing after a period of adjustment, with a focus on product quality and customer satisfaction as key competitive advantages [5][6] - The market is expected to undergo further consolidation, leading to a higher concentration of industry players and a shift towards high-quality development [5][6] Shareholder Returns - The profit distribution plan for 2024 proposes a cash dividend of CNY 0.40 per 10 shares, totaling CNY 121 million, which represents 73.49% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6] - Over the past three years, the company has distributed a total of CNY 753 million in cash dividends, emphasizing its commitment to shareholder returns [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.57 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 248 million yuan, down 24.07% year-on-year [2] - The company is facing operational pressure due to weak overall industry demand and intensified competition, but performance is expected to gradually improve with national subsidies and increased industry concentration favoring leading companies [2][5] - The company has maintained a leading position in product innovation with over 1,600 patents, and the recent increase in consumer subsidies is anticipated to boost downstream demand [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's overall revenue declined, with smart home products accounting for 85.24% of total revenue despite a 7.39% year-on-year decrease [3] - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 3.37 percentage points to 47.98%, primarily due to intensified competition and accounting adjustments [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its online sales channels and optimizing offline channels to cope with market pressures, with a focus on new product iterations [3] - The company has launched several new products, including the GW-129 and GW-118 series, to strengthen its position in the smart drying sector [3] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 16.35 billion yuan, 18.22 billion yuan, and 20.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.68 yuan, 0.76 yuan, and 0.90 yuan [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid development of the smart home sector and its status as a leading player [7]

投资逻辑： 供给侧："政策+资质"构成核心壁垒，公司炸药产能优势凸显。 ①政策与资质端对民爆供给侧严格约束：除对重组整合、拆线撤点减证等给予支持政策外，原则上不新 增过剩品种的民爆物品许可产能。截至2024 年，公司工业炸药许可产能为76.55 万吨，处于行业第一梯 队。此外，我国对民爆物品的生产、销售、购买、运输和爆破作业实行许可证制度，构成行业资质壁 垒。 暂不考虑后续资产注入的情况下，预计25-27 年公司实现营业收入105.49、116.91、128.64 亿元，同比 +11.26%、+10.83%、+10.04%；实现归母净利润10.31、11.94、13.80 亿元，同比+15.71%、+15.86%、 +15.50%，对应EPS 为0.39、0.45、0.52 元/股，给予公司25 年18 倍PE，目标价7.01 元/股，首次覆盖， 给予"买入"评级。 风险提示： 下游需求不及预期；原材料价格波动；安全生产风险；地缘政治风险。 内需： 2023 年用于煤炭、金属和非金属矿山开采的炸药量占炸药总销量的74.8%；其中用于煤炭开采 占比30.4%、金属矿山占24.7%，非金属矿山占19.7%。根据中 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 89.18 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.85 billion, up 5.44% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.26 billion, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 6.17% to 5.87 billion [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 36.94 billion, growing 6.05% year-on-year, with net profit at 14.86 billion, up 5.80% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.7 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 22.3 billion, with a payout ratio of 70% [1] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for the liquor segment in 2024 was 83.13 billion, an 8.74% increase, with Wuliangye liquor revenue at 67.88 billion, up 8.07% [3] - The average price per ton of liquor was 1.64 million, a 0.94% increase year-on-year [3] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 37.2%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points, primarily due to increased sales expenses [4] Cash Flow and Financing - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 33.94 billion, down 18.7% year-on-year, attributed to reduced cash receipts from sales and increased tax payments [5] - In Q1 2025, operating cash flow surged to 15.85 billion, a dramatic increase of 2970.3% year-on-year, driven by a higher cash collection ratio [5] - The company’s accounts receivable financing at the end of 2024 was 19.57 billion, an increase from the previous year [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to consolidate and enhance its stable growth, focusing on brand value and market share improvement, aligning revenue growth with macroeconomic indicators [1][2] - The company continues to be the leading brand in the thousand-yuan price segment, with strong brand power and ongoing reforms expected to drive stable growth [2]

Group 1 - The company reported record high sales of phosphate fertilizers in the first quarter, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [1] - The company expresses confidence in the development of phosphate fertilizers, particularly in compound fertilizers, driven by stricter environmental regulations and the trend of reducing fertilizer usage while increasing efficiency [1] - The exit of small and medium-sized enterprises from the market is expected to lead to a continuous increase in industry concentration [1] Group 2 - In terms of monoammonium phosphate, the ongoing promotion of integrated water and fertilizer policies and the rapid development of the new energy vehicle sector are expected to support demand growth in multiple areas [1] - The industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate sector is highlighted as having a broad market outlook [1]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 24年归母净利润增速高于收入，主要为24年并表上海嘉乐带来一次性大额投资收益而23年为投资损失所 致。分季度看，24Q1~24Q4公司单季度收入分别同比增长22.9%/12.8%/64.4%/47.9%，24年下半年以来收 入增幅提升主要为上海嘉乐自24年7月开始并表所贡献；单季度归母净利润分别同比增长 103.0%/341.1%/57.5%/扭亏。 分品类来看： 2024年旅行箱、包袋、服装、其他收入占比分别为19%/52%/27%/1%，收入分别同比增长 21.6%/16.7%/146.2%/-22.8%，其中服装收入大增主要为嘉乐并表贡献。 分地区来看： 2024年国内、国外销售收入占比分别为24%/76%，收入分别同比增长20. ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - The company discussed is Xin Yang Feng, a player in the fertilizer industry, particularly focusing on compound fertilizers and new types of fertilizers. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - In 2024, Xin Yang Feng achieved revenue of 15.563 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.07% [2] - The company reported a net profit of 1.315 billion yuan, up 9% year-on-year [2] - Sales volumes for various fertilizers were as follows: - Conventional compound fertilizers: 1.129 million tons, up 6.6% - New type compound fertilizers: 2.977 million tons, up 3.2% - Other compound fertilizers: 1.38 million tons, up 22.9% [1][2] Market Dynamics - The demand from downstream customers remains rigid, unaffected by international export pressures [3] - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with Xin Yang Feng's market share at approximately 9%, with potential to reach 18% [3][10] - The company’s compound fertilizer business operates on a cash transaction basis, resulting in low accounts receivable [3] Product Insights - New type fertilizers have shown a significant annual growth rate of 16.6% since 2018, with expectations for continued growth due to increasing penetration and consumer upgrades [1][4] - The profitability of new type fertilizers is expected to recover faster than conventional fertilizers due to their appeal to price-insensitive economic crop farmers [1][4] Regional Development - The Northwest region (including Xinjiang and Gansu) is expected to significantly contribute to future revenue, with the company establishing three subsidiaries to enhance local supply capabilities and reduce transportation costs [5][6] - The revenue contribution from the Northwest region is anticipated to exceed the current 8% [6] Phosphate Mining Projects - Progress on phosphate mining projects is influenced by external factors, with specific production timelines yet to be determined [7][8] - The company is optimistic about the eventual success of phosphate mining efforts, although the timeline remains uncertain [8] Financial Strategy - The company does not plan to adjust the conversion price of its convertible bonds [3][13] - Future capital expenditures will focus on projects including the Yining project and associated phosphate mining [3][13] - A commitment to increase the dividend payout ratio to at least 40% post-maturity is noted [14] Long-term Outlook - The company positions itself as a long-term competitor, focusing on sustainable growth rather than short-term gains [16] - There is significant room for recovery in gross margins compared to 2018 levels, with expectations for sales growth as the industry stabilizes [16] Additional Important Insights - The increase in inventory by 800 million yuan is attributed to rising raw material prices and proactive stocking by downstream distributors [11] - The collaboration with local governments for phosphate resources is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in securing mining rights [12][15]

从行业背景与竞争格局来看，安德利的增长与浓缩果汁行业的结构性变化密切相关。近年来，中国浓缩 果汁行业经历了从 "四分天下" 到 "双子星" 竞争的格局演变 ——海升果汁、陕西恒通等企业退出后， 安德利与国投中鲁成为行业主导者，市场集中度进一步提高。这一变化带来两方面影响： 安德利 63% 的收入依赖外销，主要客户包括可口可乐、百事可乐等国际巨头。这种高度集中的客户结 构也可能带来风险。 安德利 2025 年 Q1 的业绩预增显示其在浓缩果汁行业的龙头地位与增长韧性，但隐忧同样不容忽视。 销量驱动的增长模式、客户集中度风险、产品结构单一等问题可能制约长期发展。投资者需关注公司后 续年报中关于成本变化、客户结构、新产品进展的具体披露，以及行业周期性波动对业绩的影响。在行 业集中度提升与消费升级的双重趋势下，安德利能否通过战略调整实现可持续增长，将成为验证其竞争 力的关键。 从财务数据看，公司净利润增速显著高于扣非净利润，显示非经常性损益对业绩贡献较大（如政府补 贴、资产处置收益等）。 供给收缩与价格弹性：中小企业退出导致市场供给减少，头部企业议价能力增强。2024 年安德利浓缩 苹果汁产量达13.18万吨，增长3 ...

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