·东方汇理：美联储降息预期升温叠加主席人选变动，美元承压走弱 ·ASB银行：新西兰联储降息态度谨慎，除非数据显著走弱否则难再宽松 ·富国银行：消费者信心骤降、失业率攀升，消费情绪显著承压 【机构分析】 ·安永首席经济学家表示，澳大利亚通胀压力加剧，澳储行面临严峻政策挑战，虽年内已三次降息，但 效果尚未完全显现；鉴于下次议息会议在2026年2月，不排除12月紧急加息可能，货币政策或迎重大转 向。 ·三菱日联摩根士丹利证券策略师指出，日本央行正有意在12月加息前充分引导市场预期，避免引发意 外。鉴于首相高市早苗和财务大臣片山皋月均未反对加息，12月行动可能性高于明年1月。 ·Man Group策略师表示，尽管有观点认为日本新政府或压制加息，但日本央行展现强烈货币政策正常化 意愿。美联储12月决议将直接影响日元走势及日本央行决策压力：若美联储按兵不动，日元或续贬，加 剧日本加息紧迫性。 ·10年期美债收益率一个月来首度跌破4%，摩根大通客户调查显示美债净多头头寸升至约15年高位。交 易员预计12月降息25个基点概率已飙升至80%，较数日前的30%大幅上升。鲍威尔及联储高层近期表态 偏鸽，叠加疲软就业数据，促使市场迅 ...

日本央行正向市场释放信号，最早可能在下月加息。 据路透社11月26日援引两位知情人士消息报道，日本央行在过去一周正在释放更加"鹰派"的信号，旨在提醒市场，12月加息仍是一个现实的选 项。而这一鹰派转向的背后，是上周日本央行行长植田和男与新任首相高市早苗举行的一次关键会议，该会议似乎消除了新政府对加息的直接政 治反对。 市场的反应立竿见影。受加息预期推动，日本10年期国债收益率飙升至1.821%。此前，因一位理事会成员的鹰派言论，5年期国债收益率已触及 17年高位。一项调查显示，略过半数的经济学家预计日本央行将在12月18日至19日的会议上加息。 尽管最终决定是在12月还是明年1月行动仍是"一线之差"，且很大程度上取决于美联储的利率决策，但日本央行官员近期的表态反映出一种日益增 长的共识：疲软的日元已成为一种趋势，其推高通胀的风险比以往任何时候都大。 行情显示，近日日元兑美元持续走弱，已经跌至"干预"预警水平——155附近。 日本财务大臣片山皋月上周表示，她对日本央行的加息路径"没有特别的反对意见"。植田和男在与首相会晤后也表示，首相似乎已经认可了央行 逐步加息以引导通胀平稳迈向2%目标的计划。 三菱日联摩根士 ...

Economic Overview - Japan's economy has entered a phase of negative growth, with a reported GDP decline of 1.8% year-on-year in Q3, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024. The primary cause is a sharp contraction in external demand, contributing -0.2 percentage points to economic growth [1] - The U.S. has increased tariffs on Japanese goods, particularly raising auto tariffs from 2.5% to 15%, severely impacting Japan's automotive industry and creating a vicious cycle of order shrinkage and economic recession [1] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand remains weak, exacerbated by high inflation and declining real wages, which have led to reduced consumer spending. Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, saw a slight increase of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, while private residential investment fell by 9.4%, contributing -0.2 percentage points to economic growth [1] Political and Economic Response - In response to the economic challenges, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government approved a fiscal stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD) aimed at addressing rising prices and boosting investment in sectors like semiconductors and AI. However, this plan relies heavily on fiscal expansion and monetary easing without addressing structural economic reforms [2] Structural Issues - Japan's government debt has reached approximately 263% of GDP, and further spending increases could raise long-term interest rates, intensifying debt repayment pressures and limiting investment in public welfare and innovation [3] - The government’s approach has been criticized for lacking prioritization, with resources spread across over ten industries, leading to a "follow-the-leader" strategy that fails to drive significant industrial breakthroughs [3] Long-term Economic Outlook - Japan's economy faces a dual pressure of weak external demand and sluggish domestic consumption, with limited effectiveness of policy tools due to high debt levels and structural deficiencies. Analysts suggest that Japan's economy may oscillate around the growth line for an extended period, with fiscal stimulus potentially providing only short-term relief [4] - For genuine economic recovery, Japan needs to focus on institutional reforms and technological innovation rather than relying on short-sighted policies or external confrontations, although the prospects for such a transformation appear bleak under the current circumstances [4]

Economic Overview - Japan's economy has entered a negative growth phase again, with a GDP decline of 1.8% year-on-year in Q3, primarily due to a sharp contraction in external demand [2] - The contribution of external demand to Japan's economic growth in Q3 was -0.2 percentage points, exacerbated by increased tariffs on Japanese goods, particularly automobiles [2] - Domestic demand remains weak, with personal consumption showing only a slight increase of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, while residential investment fell by 9.4% [2] Government Response - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has approved an economic stimulus plan worth 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD) to address rising prices and boost investment in sectors like semiconductors and AI [3] - The stimulus plan relies heavily on fiscal expansion and monetary easing, without addressing necessary structural reforms in the economy [3][4] Structural Challenges - Japan's government debt has reached approximately 263% of GDP, limiting the effectiveness of further spending and increasing long-term interest rates [4] - The aging population, with 29% aged 65 and above, is contributing to labor shortages and a shrinking consumer market [4] - Japan's automotive industry is struggling to adapt to the global shift towards electric vehicles, missing opportunities in the transition to new energy sources [4] Market Impact - Tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, exacerbated by controversial statements from the Japanese Prime Minister, have led to a significant decline in tourism revenue, estimated to be between 11.5 billion to 14 billion USD, impacting GDP growth by 0.29 to 0.36 percentage points [3] - The stock market has reacted negatively, particularly in the retail and transportation sectors, as civil exchanges between China and Japan are postponed or canceled [3] Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that Japan's economy may continue to fluctuate around the growth line without achieving effective growth, as the current fiscal stimulus may only provide short-term relief [5] - A genuine recovery will require institutional reforms and technological innovation rather than reliance on short-sighted policies or external confrontations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The potential intervention measures are unlikely to reverse the broad depreciation trend of the yen but may slow its decline [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Yen Depreciation - Fiscal policy shifts, delayed monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties are contributing to the yen's weakness [1] - Recent comments from Japan's Finance Minister indicate concern over the rapid and unilateral depreciation of the yen [1] Group 2: Intervention Risks and Requirements - Analysts suggest that if the yen sharply weakens again, approaching the 158-160 yen range, the risk of intervention is real [1] - To reverse the trend of USD/JPY, decision-makers need to demonstrate fiscal discipline to restore credibility [1] - The Bank of Japan also needs to normalize its policies for effective intervention [1] - A weaker dollar could also assist in stabilizing the yen [1]

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月21日电中国外汇投资研究院金融分析师张正阳表示，日本通胀水平已连续三年维持在 央行2%目标之上，且最新经济数据表现良好，这为日本央行再次加息提供了条件。目前日本政府的宽 松政策立场与日本央行的加息倾向形成对立，可能导致日元短期内继续承压。然而，随着日本央行可能 坚持货币政策正常化，以及美元可能因美联储降息预期而延续贬值，日元存在一定回升机会。 ...

新华财经北京11月21日电（崔凯）日本总务省21日公布的数据显示，10月剔除生鲜食品价格后的核心消 费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨3.0%，较9月的2.9%进一步加速，连续第35个月高于日本央行设定的2% 通胀目标。 食品价格持续走高是推动通胀上行的主要因素。作为高度依赖进口资源的经济体，日本在日元急剧贬值 背景下，进口成本显著上升，并进一步传导至国内物价，尤以食品和能源领域表现突出。总务省指出， 自2022年4月以来，该核心通胀指标始终处于或高于2%的目标水平。 这一数据进一步强化了市场对日本央行短期内推进货币政策正常化的预期。日本央行此前已多次强调， 为确保物价稳定，有必要逐步退出超宽松政策框架。 同日，在国会听证会上，日本央行行长植田和男明确表示，日元持续疲软可能进一步推高国内通胀。他 指出，由于日元贬值抬升进口成本，企业当前更倾向于同步上调工资与产品价格，从而强化了汇率波动 向物价的传导效应。植田强调，相较以往，汇率对通胀的影响正变得"更为显著"，央行必须对此保持高 度警惕。 （文章来源：新华财经） 值得注意的是，审议委员小枝淳子近日亦发表偏鹰派言论，凸显日本央行内部对通胀风险的担忧正在上 升。尽管副 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant depreciation against the US dollar, influenced by various factors including government fiscal expansion policies, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy normalization, and widening interest rate differentials between the US and Japan [1][2][3] Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached 157.48, the highest level since January 2025, reflecting a 5% appreciation since October 4, 2023 [1] - The nominal effective exchange rate of the yen fell to 71.4, nearing the low point observed during the intervention in July 2024 [1] - The depreciation of the yen is coupled with rising Japanese government bond yields, with the 10-year yield hitting 1.825%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - The Japanese government is pushing for a comprehensive economic strategy exceeding 20 trillion yen, which includes child subsidies and energy assistance, raising concerns about debt sustainability as the current debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 260% [2] - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, marking the end of six consecutive quarters of growth, indicating weak domestic and external demand [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The market's expectation for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December is only at 57%, as the central bank maintains a policy rate of 0.5% despite core CPI exceeding the 2% target for 36 consecutive months [2][3] - The Japanese government opposes interest rate hikes, arguing that inflation has not yet reached a sustainable level, which conflicts with the Bank of Japan's logic of a wage-price positive cycle [2][3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Financial institutions have lowered their forecasts for the yen, with JPMorgan adjusting its prediction for the USD/JPY exchange rate to 156 by the end of 2025 [4] - Key upcoming events include the announcement of the stimulus plan on November 21 and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in December, which could significantly influence the yen's trajectory [4] Group 5: Policy Indicators and Potential Outcomes - A potential increase in the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% could lead to a 1-2% appreciation of the yen [5] - Continuous inflation above 3% for six months may force the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy, leading to a medium-term strengthening of the yen [5] - The government's focus on monitoring exchange rate fluctuations may signal a prelude to verbal interventions, potentially stabilizing the yen in the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustments will depend on a detailed assessment of economic and price trends, despite inflation gradually approaching the 2% target [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Potential inflation is gradually moving towards the 2% target, but there is insufficient evidence to confirm its stability [1]. - Recent inflation rates in Japan have exceeded potential inflation rates, indicating a relatively strong performance in overall prices [3]. - The Bank of Japan will monitor temporary supply-side factors, such as rising food prices, which may affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of Japan emphasizes a gradual approach to normalizing monetary policy, opposing hasty actions [1][2]. - There is a necessity to normalize interest rates to avoid future distortions, with a clear indication that the central bank should continue to raise policy rates based on economic activity and price improvements [2]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by December 2025, with recent statements reinforcing this expectation [2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Stability - The impact of yen fluctuations on domestic prices is a significant concern, with a focus on how exchange rate stability reflects economic fundamentals [1]. - The Bank of Japan is prepared to intervene in the market through increased bond purchases and emergency operations to maintain market stability during rapid and irregular fluctuations in long-term yields [1].

智通财经APP获悉，在日元汇率跌至大约10个月以来最低位之后，日本央行货币政策委员会成员小枝淳子在谈到 有必要推动货币政策正常化时，释放出日本央行最早可能在下个月重启加息的重磅信号。这意味着在日元汇率 (兑美元)持续下跌之际，日本央行终于坐不住了——当前日元汇率位于1月以来最低且距离自去年7月以来的最弱 水平仅一步之遥，紧急派出代表放出鹰派言论稳住日元汇率。 据了解，小枝淳子周四在日本北部新潟向当地企业界领袖发表讲话时表示："鉴于当前实际利率处于显著偏低的 水平，我认为日本央行需要及时推进利率正常化进程。" 从日本央行货币政策委员会的鹰鸽成员阵营对照表来看，小枝淳子显然属于立场较强硬的鹰派阵营，不过小枝的 最新言论看似意在日元汇率持续走弱之际传递鹰派信息来维持日元稳定。然而日元兑美元却进一步走低，这表明 外汇市场交易员们或许在期待接下来日本央行官员们在日元走弱时期更为强硬的表态。 日本央行观察人士普遍预计，日本央行最迟不会晚于明年1月重启加息进程，隔夜掉期市场的最新定价显示，对 下个月采取货币政策行动的市场押注正在大幅降温。由于市场愈发相信美联储下个月不会降息，叠加市场惧怕崇 尚"安倍经济学"的高市早苗欲推出 ...