日本央行清空银行股持仓 ETF巨量持仓成下个焦点 金十数据7月14日讯，日本央行已完全抛售其在2000年代初国内银行业危机及后续雷曼危机期间从陷入 困境的银行购买的股票，结束近二十年的处置进程，令市场更密切关注其规模更大的ETF持仓命运。据 日本央行15日报告，其持有的银行股已于7月10日归零，进度远早于设定的明年3月最后期限。此次清仓 表明日本央行或能在不扰乱金融市场的前提下更广泛推进货币政策正常化。这些资产最初是作为危机应 对措施购入，比大规模货币宽松计划早数年实施。2002至2010年间，日本央行分两个阶段从私营银行购 入约2.4万亿日元股票以稳定金融体系。日本央行在2020年左右成为日本股市最大持有人，目前其ETF 持仓规模是危机期所购银行股的15倍。若采用与抛售银行股相同的节奏，其出清ETF持仓将耗时超过 200年。 ...

美联储独立性面临的制度性挑战不容忽视。1977年《联邦储备改革法案》虽限制总统因政策分歧解雇联储官员，但近期政治势力正通过国会监督程序寻找施 压路径。参议院银行委员会已启动对总部改造项目的专项调查，传唤美联储基建负责人提供工程审计文件。法律专家指出，若国会认定鲍威尔存在"重大失 职"，可能启动特别听证程序，这将创造前所未有的制度危机。 此次风波为全球央行治理敲响警钟。国际清算银行（BIS）最新报告强调，主要经济体中央银行的决策独立性指数已降至2008年以来最低水平。欧洲央行行 长拉加德在巴黎金融论坛发表演讲时重申，货币政策决策必须隔绝短期政治压力，否则将损害物价稳定目标的实现。历史经验表明，1970年代美联储丧失独 立性的教训，直接导致美国经历长达十年的滞胀危机。 面对政治压力和市场动荡的双重考验，鲍威尔及其团队展现出专业定力。美联储7月12日发布声明，强调总部改造项目完全符合《政府资产管理条例》要 求，所有工程变更均报备监管部门。市场分析机构测算显示，尽管传闻引发短期波动，但联邦基金利率期货定价仍保持稳定，表明多数投资者认为鲍威尔完 成任期的概率超过75%。 在货币政策正常化进程遭遇逆风的背景下，美联储领导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in normalizing monetary policy amid rising uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs and declining real wages in Japan, which complicate the economic outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline in nearly two years, primarily due to inflation outpacing wage growth [5]. - The consumer inflation rate in Japan rose by 4.0% year-on-year in May, which has consistently exceeded the BOJ's target of 2% for over three years [5]. - Japan's economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter due to a decline in exports, marking the first shrinkage in a year [6]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - President Trump announced a plan to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from Japan and 13 other countries starting August 1, which could further exacerbate uncertainties in Japan's economic outlook [1][4]. - If the tariffs are fully implemented, Japan's GDP could potentially decline by 0.8 percentage points, with the automotive sector's profits expected to decrease by $19 billion [6]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Dilemma - The BOJ faces a dilemma between raising interest rates to control inflation and maintaining low rates to support economic growth amid increasing tariff uncertainties [8]. - Market analysts are divided on the BOJ's next steps, with some suggesting that the current economic conditions may delay any rate hikes [8]. - Some experts argue that the BOJ should maintain its current stance to buy time against tariff uncertainties, while others emphasize the need for a commitment to future rate increases [9].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election is creating uncertainty in the bond market, with the ruling coalition potentially losing its majority, leading to a significant sell-off in long-term Japanese government bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Election Impact on Bond Market - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose by 12.5 basis points to 3.09%, while the 40-year bond yield is nearing historical highs due to investor concerns over the ruling coalition's performance in the upcoming election [1]. - Polls indicate that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito may lose their majority, which could trigger expectations of more aggressive fiscal stimulus, further pushing up long-term bond yields [3][4]. - The ruling coalition needs to secure at least 50 out of 125 seats to maintain its majority, with the election focusing on economic stimulus proposals [4]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - If the ruling coalition loses, the new government may favor larger fiscal stimulus measures, increasing Japan's already high public debt burden [4]. - The market is likely to price in a more fluid political situation if the ruling coalition loses the Senate, which could lead to increased volatility and downward pressure on Japanese stocks [3][4]. - The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma in normalizing its monetary policy due to market volatility and election uncertainties, potentially delaying the reduction of its bond-buying program [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma between raising interest rates to curb inflation and maintaining stable rates to support economic growth amid increasing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies [1][5]. Economic Data Summary - Japan's real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline in nearly two years and the fifth consecutive month of decline [3][4]. - The consumer inflation rate in Japan rose by 4.0% year-on-year in May, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2% for over three years [4][5]. - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter due to a decline in exports, marking the first shrinkage in a year [4][5]. Tariff Impact Analysis - U.S. President Trump's announcement of tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from Japan and other countries could further exacerbate uncertainty in Japan's economic outlook [1][4]. - If the tariffs are fully implemented, Japan's GDP could decline by 0.8 percentage points, and profits in the automotive sector could decrease by $19 billion [4][5]. Monetary Policy Perspectives - There is increasing divergence in market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with some analysts suggesting that the current economic conditions may delay interest rate hikes [5][6]. - Some analysts argue that the high inflation rate relative to wage growth should prompt the Bank of Japan to commit to raising policy rates, which could strengthen the yen and improve purchasing power for consumers [5][6]. - Others suggest that the Bank of Japan should adopt a wait-and-see approach to navigate the uncertainties posed by tariffs, while also signaling a continued inclination towards tightening in the future [6].

Group 1 - Japan's real wages fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline in 20 months and the fifth consecutive month of decline, as inflation continues to outpace wage growth [1] - The average wage increase for the fiscal year 2025 is reported at 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, following increases of 5.10% and 3.58% in the previous two years [1] - Nominal cash earnings grew by only 1.0% in May, the lowest increase since March 2024, significantly lagging behind the 4.0% rise in consumer inflation [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring wage trends as they are crucial for maintaining consumer momentum and determining the timing of future interest rate hikes [2] - There is a possibility that the Bank of Japan may raise its inflation forecasts in the upcoming quarterly economic report due to inflation rates exceeding expectations [2] - The rising inflation and rental prices in Tokyo signal a deepening inflation trend in the economy, providing a basis for potential interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan [3] Group 3 - Tokyo apartment rents are rising at the fastest pace in 30 years, with a 1.3% year-on-year increase in April-May, indicating that inflation is permeating the rental market [3] - The increase in rents is seen as a sign of a shift towards normalization in monetary policy, as it reflects rising base prices [3] - The Bank of Japan has identified the real estate market as a key area to monitor closely in its semi-annual financial system report [3]

Group 1 - Japan's largest labor union, Rengo, reported that companies agreed to a wage increase of 5.25% this year, the highest in 34 years, driven by inflation and labor shortages [1] - The wage growth trend has been consistent, with last year's average increase at 5.10% and the year before at 3.58%, indicating a stable wage growth mechanism in a country that has experienced wage stagnation for decades [1] - The business community is forming a new consensus that wage increases must exceed inflation levels, marking a shift in corporate attitudes towards compensation [1] Group 2 - Mizuho Research Institute predicts that if oil prices decline, it could partially offset the impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits, leading to a wage increase of 4.7% next year [2] - The chief economist at Mizuho Research anticipates that the Bank of Japan will likely initiate interest rate hikes in the first quarter of next year, supported by confirmed wage growth momentum [2] - Over half of economists surveyed expect the next 25 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Japan to occur in early 2026, with strong wage data providing support for monetary policy normalization [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the liquidity situation from May to July 2025, predicting that the excess reserve ratio in June will reach 1.5%, and in July it will be around 1.3%. It also points out that the central bank may have adjusted its monetary policy operation target to focus on DR001, and the funding rate in July is expected to continue to decline, maintaining an optimistic outlook on the July liquidity environment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 May: Central Bank's Continuous Additional Withdrawal and Slow Disbursement of Replacement Bonds Lead to Lower - than - Expected Increase in Excess Reserve Ratio - In May, the excess reserve ratio rose by about 0.1pct to 1.0%, lower than the expected 1.2%, remaining at the lowest level in the same period since 2019. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations decreased by an additional about 140 billion yuan, and the cumulative decline since March exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan [6] - Fiscal deposits in May increased by 28.1 billion yuan, slightly higher than expected. The government deposit decreased by an additional 53 billion yuan compared to the sum of the general fiscal surplus and net government bond payments, lower than the expected 65 billion yuan. The progress of special refinancing bonds in May might still be lower than expected [8] - The cash return in May was slow, and the reserve requirement and foreign exchange funds were close to expectations. The central bank's claims on the government decreased by 8.42 billion yuan, and the increase compared to before the central bank started bond - buying in July last year was less than 1 trillion yuan [8] 3.2 June: Excess Reserves Return to Neutral, and the Central Bank Promotes Funding Normalization Step by Step with DR001 as the Anchor - In June, the government deposit is expected to decrease by about 74 billion yuan, which is an important source of liquidity supplement. The reserve requirement may consume about 32 billion yuan of excess reserves, currency issuance may increase by about 3 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds may withdraw about 5 billion yuan. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to increase by about 1.23 trillion yuan month - on - month, and the excess reserve ratio is expected to be about 1.5%, up about 0.5pct from May [11] - The central bank disclosed the liquidity injection situation of various central bank tools in May and announced the tender information of repurchase - style reverse repurchase one day before the operation, which is interpreted as an attempt to increase policy transparency, but it is still difficult to fully convey the central bank's policy intention [24][27] - In June, the central bank's net lending center of banks continued to rise, accompanied by a decline in funding rates. DR007 did not fall to the expected 1.4% - 1.5% range, while the average value of DR001 fell below 1.4%, which may reflect a change in the central bank's funding regulation model. The central bank may have adjusted its monetary policy operation target to focus on DR001 [29][35] 3.3 In a Steady - State Environment, the Lower Limit of Funding Easing Has Not Been Reached, and Funding Rates in July Are Expected to Continue to Decline - In July, the government deposit is expected to increase by about 46 billion yuan month - on - month, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years, and the consumption of excess reserves will be marginally weakened. The reserve requirement may decrease by about 10 billion yuan, currency issuance may increase by about 3 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds may continue to withdraw about 5 billion yuan. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to decrease by about 24 billion yuan month - on - month, and the excess reserve ratio is expected to be about 1.3%, down 0.2pct from June [42] - As of June, the average value of DR001 has fallen close to the policy rate. Whether it can continue to decline in July is the core issue of market concern. Although the central bank maintains the goal of restricting the rapid decline of interest rates, it also needs to balance cost reduction and maintaining bank spreads. If the current fundamental environment does not change significantly, the current monetary easing tone may continue [3][54] - Historically, interest rate cuts have often occurred in Q3, and if there is an interest rate cut this year, it is likely to be after the Politburo meeting in July. Even if there is no interest rate cut, there may still be room for further easing in the funding market, and it is likely that DR001 will fall below 1.3%. The overall outlook for the July liquidity environment is still optimistic [3]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed concerns about the euro's exchange rate, stating that a rise above 1.20 against the dollar could complicate monetary policy, while the current range of 1.17 to 1.20 is manageable [1] - The euro has appreciated by 13.8% against the dollar this year, reaching a high of 1.1755 on June 30, primarily due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies and a crisis of confidence in dollar assets [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde previously described the euro's strong performance as "counterintuitive but reasonable," indicating that the exchange rate is just one of many factors in policy considerations [1] Group 2 - Within the Eurozone, there are differing views on the exchange rate; Latvian central bank Governor Martins Kazaks warned that rapid euro appreciation could create dual deflationary pressures by lowering import costs and weakening export competitiveness [4] - Lithuanian central bank Governor Gediminas Šimkus also cautioned against the speed of unilateral appreciation, which could disrupt inflation control targets, despite the current exchange rate not breaching historical ranges [4] - In contrast, German central bank Governor Joachim Nagel expressed confidence in the current euro exchange rate, viewing it as close to long-term averages and emphasizing that the management board is more focused on overall inflation dynamics rather than a single exchange rate indicator [4] Group 3 - The ECB has broken its silence on exchange rate discussions, which is rare, especially after initiating a monetary easing cycle in June 2024 and lowering benchmark rates eight times since then [4] - The central challenge for the ECB is balancing inflation reduction with economic growth amid expectations of further rate cuts in September [4] - De Guindos highlighted the need to be vigilant about trade protectionism and geopolitical risks that could impact price stability, particularly the potential lagging effects of U.S. tariff policies on the European economy [4][5] Group 4 - As the July 9 deadline for tariff exemptions approaches, uncertainty remains in U.S.-EU trade negotiations, with the ECB predicting inflation could stabilize at the 2% target by 2027, but short-term risks are skewed to the downside [5] - The volatility of the euro exchange rate is not only a focal point for financial markets but also serves as an important indicator for the ECB's policy direction [5] - De Guindos emphasized that exchange rate issues should be viewed within a broader economic fundamentals framework, highlighting the importance of monitoring all factors affecting inflation [5]

Core Insights - Tokyo's apartment rents are rising at the fastest pace in 30 years, signaling a new wave of inflationary pressure in Japan's economy [1][4] - The latest data from Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs shows that rents in Tokyo increased by 1.3% year-on-year from April to May, marking the largest increase since 1994 [1][4] - This increase, while modest compared to Tokyo's core inflation rate of 3.6%, indicates a significant shift in the rental market since the asset bubble burst in the early 1990s [1][4] Rental Market Dynamics - The rise in rents is attributed to multiple factors, including increased mortgage costs as the Bank of Japan ends its negative interest rate policy, with floating rates now at 1.875%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis [5] - Approximately 80% of home loans in Japan are on floating rates, leading landlords to pass on the increased costs to tenants [5] - Maintenance costs are also rising, with significant increases in expenses for repairs and replacements, further driving up rental prices [5] Investment Trends - A notable influx of foreign investors is expected, with 20% to 40% of new apartments in Tokyo projected to be purchased by overseas buyers in the second half of the 2024 fiscal year [5] - This trend may accelerate changes in the market pricing mechanism, as these investors may not be familiar with Japan's two-year fixed rent practices [5] - The combination of a booming stock market and a depreciating yen is attracting foreign capital, making Tokyo's real estate a target for global asset allocation [5] Policy Responses - The Bank of Japan has identified the real estate market as a key area for monitoring in its latest financial system report, contrasting with its previous observations of stagnant rents over the past two decades [5] - In response to rising inflation, the government has announced a subsidy of 20,000 yen per person and plans to restore utility subsidies to balance inflationary pressures with public welfare [5] Consumer Impact - The rising rents are significantly impacting the disposable income of residents, with rent now consuming 28.3% of the monthly disposable income for single residents in Tokyo [4] - This financial strain is forcing individuals to cut back on discretionary spending, highlighting the microeconomic effects of inflation through the housing channel [6]