1月14日，黄金与白银周二双双创下历史新高，现货黄金最高触及每盎司4634美元的历史新高，但随后 迅速回落，最终收盘在4586美元，日线最终收阴。现货白银上涨2.1%至每盎司86.92美元，盘中亦刷新 历史高点至89.11美元，今天早盘更是触及到90美元新高位置。周三（北京时间1月14日）亚市早盘，现 货黄金又是高开高走，一路攀升，目前交投于4620美元附近。 基本消息面： 美国12月消费者物价指数（CPI）的公布，本应是黄金多头的福音，却在实际走势中引发了市场的复杂 反应。数据显示，CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比2.7%，影响较小；核心CPI环比0.2%、同比2.6%，均低于分 析师预期的0.3%和2.7%。然而，黄金价格在数据公布后并未持续走高，反而从高点回落，这反映出市 场对通胀数据的解读并非一边倒，虽然通胀低于预期支持降息，但它也暗示经济冷却迹象，圣路易斯联 储主席穆萨莱姆强调，在通胀仍高于2%目标的情况下，近期无进一步降息理由，这让短期降息预期冷 却。 地缘政治方面，当地时间13日，以色列外交部长萨尔宣布，以色列决定退出多个联合国机构及相关组 织。以方称，这些机构存在"反以色列偏见"等问题。丹麦和格陵 ...

隔夜，现货黄金一度触及4634.33美元的历史新高，但随后迅速回落，收盘仅稳定在4586美元附近。今日欧市盘中，黄金延续涨势，一度涨至4639.39美 元，再创历史新高，目前在4637美元附近徘徊。 白银，又爆了，1月14日，现货白银价格继续攀升，盘中站上90美元，续创历史新高。CompaniesMarketCap数据显示，目前白银市值已突破5万亿美元，超 过芯片巨头英伟达4.52万亿美元的市值。 特朗普炮轰鲍威尔！ 隔夜，美股三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，道指跌0.8%，报49191.99点；标普500指数跌0.19%，报6963.74点；纳指跌0.1%，报23709.87点。 消息面上，美国通胀数据影响显著上行，市场押注美联储提前降息。 当地时间1月13日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，2025年12月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与前月涨幅持平，但高于市场预期。剔除 波动较大的食品和能源价格后，2025年12月核心CPI环比增长0.2%，经季节性调整前同比增长2.6%。 经济学家认为，一个月前公布的11月通胀数据可能被"人为压低"。他们提醒说，本次公布的12月数据可能会对11月被低估的部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing mixed signals with rising prices in the short term due to macroeconomic factors, while demand remains weak, leading to a cautious outlook for future price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2603) opened high but weakened, closing at 23,380 yuan, down 50 yuan, with a decline of 0.21% [1]. - The trading volume decreased by 8,122 contracts to 19,803 contracts, while open interest fell by 89 contracts to 22,010 contracts [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - On January 14, the average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 26,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan [1]. - Other aluminum alloy prices also saw increases, with A380 at 25,500 yuan/ton (up 300 yuan), ADC12 at 23,900 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan), ZL102 at 25,800 yuan/ton (up 300 yuan), and ZLD104 at 25,700 yuan/ton (up 300 yuan) [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The raw material side shows strong support for casting aluminum costs due to tight supply of imported and domestic scrap aluminum, alongside tax adjustments raising costs in some regions [2]. - Demand is weak, with the operating rate of alloy plants dropping to 58% due to seasonal factors and insufficient orders, particularly in the automotive sector [2]. - The overall trading atmosphere is subdued, with downstream purchasing sentiment affected by high prices, leading to a cautious approach from buyers [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry faces challenges with cost transmission issues limiting price increases, resulting in compressed profits and suppressed consumption [2]. - The market for casting aluminum is characterized by weak supply and demand, suggesting that future prices will fluctuate with costs, maintaining a generally strong performance [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December remained stable at 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, grew by 2.6%, slightly below the forecast of 2.7% [1] - Housing costs, which are a key factor in inflation persistence, increased by 0.4% in December, contributing significantly to the monthly rise, with this category accounting for over one-third of the CPI and showing a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - The report indicates ongoing inflationary pressures, with food prices rising by 0.7% in December, although egg prices plummeted by 8.2%, marking a nearly 21% decline compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's global macro forum report suggests that the urgency for the Federal Reserve to stabilize the job market has decreased due to recent improvements in economic momentum and a decline in unemployment rates [1] - Future policy actions by the Federal Reserve will depend on two key signals: the comprehensive impact of tariff adjustments by the Trump administration on prices and whether inflation data shows a clear downward trend [1] - The report maintains the forecast for the Federal Reserve's final interest rate target range at 3.0%-3.25%, indicating that the interest rate market needs to reprice overly optimistic expectations for rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant surge, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising over 4% and surpassing the $95,000 mark for the first time in a week, while Ethereum (ETH) increased by over 7% to around $3,330 [1] - The rise in cryptocurrency prices is attributed to unexpectedly low U.S. inflation data, which has strengthened market expectations for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Political tensions, including a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice to the Federal Reserve, have contributed to a weaker dollar, enhancing the appeal of non-sovereign assets perceived as hedges against central bank policy risks [1] Group 2 - A massive liquidation in the futures market accompanied the recent price surge, with over $688 million in liquidations occurring in the past 24 hours, predominantly from short positions [2] - Approximately 122,000 traders were liquidated, with Binance's Ethereum to Tether (ETHUSDT) contracts accounting for $12.9 million of the total liquidation, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [2] - The imbalance in liquidation structure highlights that traders had heavily bet on a market downturn prior to the inflation data release, which rapidly reversed [2] Group 3 - Traditional stock markets also saw gains, reinforcing the risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market [3] - Asian stock markets reached historical highs, with silver prices breaking $90 per ounce for the first time, while gold remained just below historical peaks [4] - These market movements indicate that investors are increasingly favoring assets that can benefit from a loose financial environment and monetary system turmoil [5]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate showed slight upward movement, trading around 0.8010, following the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) which met market expectations, thereby strengthening the dollar against the Swiss franc [2] Economic Data Summary - The US CPI for December increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with the November increase and market expectations [3] - The core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 2.7% [3] - Month-on-month, the overall CPI and core CPI increased by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively [3] Market Expectations - The inflation data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates this month [3] - The futures market indicates that traders expect a low likelihood of interest rate adjustments at least until June, providing support for the USD/CHF exchange rate [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with external factors potentially driving funds towards safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc [3] - Recent reports suggest differing views among US government officials regarding the Fed's monetary policy stance, which may influence market expectations [3] Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern in the short term, with support near the psychological level of 0.8000 and resistance around 0.8050 [3] - Upcoming retail sales and producer price index data are crucial economic indicators that may provide new insights into monetary policy expectations [3] Long-term Considerations - The long-term trajectory of the USD and CHF will largely depend on the divergence in monetary policies between the two countries [4] - Continued robust performance in US economic data may delay the Federal Reserve's policy shift, providing further support for the dollar [4] - Ongoing monitoring of the Swiss National Bank's stance on the CHF exchange rate and domestic inflation developments is essential [4]

Core Insights - The core inflation level in the U.S. has slowed down compared to expectations, with the December CPI data showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with both expectations and previous values [1] - The core CPI year-on-year growth is reported at 2.6%, matching the previous value but slightly below the expected 2.7% [1] - The probability of a rate cut in January remains significant, supported by the current employment and inflation data [1] Economic Context - The U.S. President continues to advocate for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Amid the potential pause in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in January, geopolitical issues have become a short-term focus, with renewed concerns over U.S.-Iran tensions, Greenland, and other geopolitical conflicts [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to sustain interest in gold as a safe-haven asset in the short term [1]

【最新现货黄金行情解析】 黄金短期内面临回调压力，但长期来看，降息周期、核心通胀仍高于央行目标、地缘政治博弈等因素支 撑黄金避险资产地位，2026年整体前景乐观。 指标层面，均线系统保持多头排列形态，短期需首要关注5日均线支撑力度。若价格运行于该均线之 上，整体仍以震荡偏强格局对待;一旦向下跌破5日均线，短期内需警惕回调风险。目前5日均线位于 4550区域，该位置同时对应前期高点，价格突破后若出现回落，需重点关注顶底转换后的支撑有效性。 摘要今日周三(1月14日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4620美元/盎司附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新 报4619.69美元/盎司，涨幅0.75%，最高上探至4620.56美元/盎司，最低触及4585.49美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周三(1月14日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4620美元/盎司附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 4619.69美元/盎司，涨幅0.75%，最高上探至4620.56美元/盎司，最低触及4585.49美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美元指数强势反弹成为黄金冲高回落的主要推手。周二，美元指数上 ...

早盘速递 2026/1/14 热点资讯 1. 美国总统特朗普表示，将对与伊朗开展商业往来的国家商品征收25%的关税，进一步加大对伊朗政府的压力。 2. 据一位知情人士透露，在特朗普政府大幅升级对美联储的施压后，全球央行官员正在努力发表一份声明，以示对美联储主 席鲍威尔的声援。 3. 美国总统特朗普表示，美国（12月）通胀数据出炉，非常低！这意味着杰罗姆·"太晚了"·鲍威尔应该大幅降息！如果 不降息，他只会继续"太晚了"！此外，美国经济增长数据也非常好。感谢关税先生！ 4. 据路透报道，周二，交易员们加大了押注，认为美联储可能不会等到美联储主席鲍威尔任期于五月结束后再降息，因为此 前美国劳工统计局报告称，基本消费者价格上涨幅度略低于预期。尽管交易员们仍认为，六月降息是最可能的结果，但根据最 新数据预测，美联储4月降息的概率约为42%，高于数据发布前的38%。 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，资讯来自于金十期货、Wind资讯等，冠通研究整理 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the Fed's independence being undermined and the weakening of inflation data, the prices of gold and silver are strong. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 980 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 19050 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Shanghai gold rose 0.14% to 1031.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.14% to 21943.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4594.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 86.86 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.18 [2] - The US CPI data released last night was lower than expected. The year - on - year value of the US CPI in December was 2.7%, in line with expectations and the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The year - on - year value of the US core CPI in December was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7% and the same as the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [2] - The decline in the overall CPI mainly came from the energy - related commodity sub - item, with a year - on - year value of - 3.0% and a month - on - month value of - 0.4%. In the core CPI data, the year - on - year item of rent generally changed little from the previous value. Affected by the Christmas holiday, the decline in the prices of accommodation and air tickets slowed down. The price of medical insurance showed a marginal decline, with the month - on - month value of the health insurance sub - item recording - 1.1% [2] 3.2 Gold and Silver Data Summary - **Gold**: - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract was 4594.40 US dollars/ounce, down 0.31% from the previous day; the trading volume was 24.91 million lots, down 11.63%; the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) was 48.81 million lots, up 1.30%; the inventory was 1129 tons, down 0.04% [6] - LBMA gold: The closing price was 4623.05 US dollars/ounce, up 0.22% [6] - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract was 1027.18 yuan/gram, up 0.09%; the trading volume was 37.08 million lots, down 12.15%; the position was 33.65 million lots, up 0.93%; the inventory was 98.28 tons, up 0.65%; the precipitation funds were 55.305 billion yuan, an inflow of 1.02% [6] - AuT + D: The closing price was 1025.52 yuan/gram, up 0.33%; the trading volume was 58.00 tons, up 1.00%; the position was 187.16 tons, down 0.27% [6] - **Silver**: - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract was 86.86 US dollars/ounce, up 2.00%; the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) was 15.32 million lots, down 2.64%; the inventory was 13551 tons, down 0.41% [6] - LBMA silver: The closing price was 85.82 US dollars/ounce, up 2.08% [6] - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract was 21004.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.28%; the trading volume was 238.26 million lots, down 3.72%; the position was 71.83 million lots, up 0.50%; the inventory was 630.07 tons, down 3.01%; the precipitation funds were 40.737 billion yuan, an inflow of 0.78% [6] - AgT + D: The closing price was 21048.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.70%; the trading volume was 700.30 tons, up 70.30%; the position was 3081.116 tons, up 1.27% [6] 3.3 Gold and Silver Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, and other factors, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and actual interest rate, the relationship between Shanghai gold price and trading volume, etc. [8][11][12][15] 3.4 Gold and Silver Near - Far Month Structure and Spread Charts - There are charts showing the near - far month structure of COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and Shanghai silver, as well as the spread between London gold and COMEX gold, and the spread between London silver and COMEX silver [22][23][36][39] 3.5 Management Fund Net Long Positions and ETF Positions - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds and prices, as well as the total positions of gold and silver ETFs [41][42] 3.6 Gold and Silver Internal - External Spread Statistics - The internal - external spreads of gold and silver on January 13, 2026 are calculated, including the spreads between SHFE and COMEX, and between SGE and LBMA [53]