Core Viewpoint - Traders are significantly betting on a substantial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, exceeding 25 basis points, as demand for positions related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has surged since the beginning of the month [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - There has been a notable increase in open contracts betting on a 50 basis point rate cut, indicating strong market sentiment towards a more aggressive easing [1] - Following the release of inflation data that exceeded expectations, some traders adjusted their rate cut predictions, although the overall belief in a rate cut next month remains strong [1] Group 2: Treasury Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury bonds ended a three-day sell-off, with yields across various maturities declining [1] - Ian Lingen, head of U.S. rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, highlighted that the biggest risk for U.S. Treasuries is if Fed Chair Powell dampens expectations for a September rate cut in his upcoming speech [1]

Group 1 - The bond market has reduced expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September following concerning Producer Price Index (PPI) data, but traders remain overly optimistic about the speed and scale of the Federal Reserve's easing plans [1] - Tim Duy, Chief Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, predicts a "chaotic insurance cut" in September, but Powell is unlikely to commit to further cuts, linking policy to subsequent data which introduces uncertainty for fixed income markets [1][2] - Current market pricing indicates three rate cuts this year, totaling 100 basis points over the next 12 months [1] Group 2 - Duy emphasizes that the September rate cut is not guaranteed and is contingent on upcoming data, which may frustrate market participants [2] - He notes that consumer resilience and strong retail sales data contrast with persistent inflation, which could hinder rate cuts; the median forecast for inflation in Q4 2025 is 3% [2][4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to be 3.1% year-on-year in Q4, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 3 - The median forecast for the unemployment rate in Q4 is 4.4%, lower than previous estimates, indicating a potential shift in labor market dynamics [4] - Duy suggests that the dual mandate of the Fed complicates the likelihood of rate cuts, leading to hesitance among some board members, predicting only two cuts this year [4] - Since June of last year, the outlook for the Fed's dual mandate has deteriorated [6] Group 4 - Powell is expected to defend the Fed's independence in an upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, maintaining cautious language regarding monetary policy [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week's unexpected inflation data pressured gold and silver. The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, far higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, and 3.3% year - on - year, hitting a five - month high, cooling the expectation of significant interest rate cuts. However, the employment market's weakening may support gold and silver prices. The overall trade environment is still deteriorating, and the "Big and Beautiful Act" is pushing up the US fiscal deficit expectation. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, and gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts warms up [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 775.08 and 777.18 respectively, with price drops of - 0.72 and - 0.62, and declines of - 0.09% and - 0.08%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9217.00 and 9236.00 respectively, with price increases of 13.00 and 10.00, and rises of 0.14% and 0.11% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 160609 and 30505, and the open interests are 197655 and 131073. The trading volumes of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 420183 and 93581, and the open interests are 346128 and 224024 [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premiums and discounts of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 1.99 and - 4.09, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 29.00 and - 48.00 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D are 773.09, 770.26, and 9188.00 respectively. The price changes are - 2.01, 0.47, and - 86.00, and the changes are - 0.26%, 0.06%, and - 0.93%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver is 37.99, with a price increase of 0.01 and a rise of 0.03% [2] - **Price Ratios and Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 2.10, 19, 84.14, 7.21, and 7.52 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 2.00, 22, 83.58, 7.23, and 7.60 [2] Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The current inventories of SHFE gold, SHFE silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver are 36,345 kg, 1,141,555 kg, 38,636,332, and 507,551,254 respectively. The changes are - (no change), - 9,227.00 kg, - 6,088.67, and 536643 [2] Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US Dollar Index, Standard & Poor's Index, US Treasury Yield, Brent Crude Oil, and USD/CNY are 97.8467, 6449.8, 4.33, 66.13, and 7.1891 respectively. The changes are - 0.36%, - 0.29%, 0.93%, 0.01%, and 0.09% [2] Derivatives - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 [2] Macro News - **Geopolitical News**: US President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky on August 18, and there may be a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Russia has made "some concessions" on five Ukrainian regions, and Putin has agreed to include a "NATO - like Article 5" security guarantee clause in the future peace agreement. The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [3] - **Economic Data**: The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year, far higher than expectations. The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, slightly higher than expected. The July non - farm payroll data was lower than expected, and the previous value was significantly revised down [3]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is reported at $3346, with trading volume in the Asian market shrinking by 23% compared to the average [1] - Recent inflation data exceeded market expectations, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a reduction in related bets [1] - A meeting between Trump and Putin, although not resulting in substantial agreements, created a generally positive atmosphere [1] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky is set to meet with President Trump in Washington, accompanied by leaders from Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and the European Commission President, showcasing Western unity [2] - The geopolitical tension and easing are causing pulse-like fluctuations in gold prices, with traders advised to closely monitor developments [2] - Concerns have been raised regarding potential "dangerous terms" in the peace proposal from the U.S., which could lead to significant political upheaval in Ukraine [2] Group 3 - The medium-term outlook for gold remains unchanged, with monthly charts indicating a potential change in trend, suggesting that recent price increases may be for distribution before a larger decline [3] - Weekly price movements show continued high-level fluctuations, with a key support level at $3300 to watch for next week [3] - Short-term trends indicate a weakening of bullish momentum, with a recommendation for primarily short positions and selective long positions [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The industrial production growth is differentiated, with the electronics, electrical machinery, and automotive sectors leading, contributing significantly to overall growth [1][2] - High-end equipment manufacturing, such as shipbuilding and mobile communication base stations, has seen a surge in output, while high-tech manufacturing is accelerating, particularly in integrated circuits [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Growth**: Out of 41 industrial categories, 35 reported growth with an overall growth rate of 8%, slightly lower than June's figures. Equipment manufacturing grew at 8.4%, consistently outperforming overall industrial growth for 24 months [2] - **Fixed Asset Investment**: The overall growth rate of fixed asset investment has slowed to 1.6%, with real estate being a major drag. Excluding real estate, the growth rate is 5.3%. Manufacturing investment remains relatively stable at 6.2% [3][4] - **Real Estate Challenges**: The real estate market is facing a negative cycle of weak sales, reduced construction starts, and investment contraction. From January to July, real estate investment fell by 12%, with a monthly decline of 17% in July [5] - **Consumer Retail Trends**: The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, showing a significant slowdown. However, policies promoting the replacement of old appliances have positively impacted retail sales in categories like home appliances [6] - **Service Consumption**: Service consumption grew by 5.2% from January to July, with a notable increase in travel and leisure services during the summer [7] Additional Important Insights - **Economic Forecast**: The economic growth rate for the third quarter is expected to be significantly lower than the second quarter, with real estate continuing to be a major drag on the economy. However, the target of 5% annual growth remains achievable [8] - **US Economic Data**: Recent US economic data, including CPI and PPI, showed mixed results. The PPI exceeded expectations, leading to market volatility, while the core CPI remains resilient [9][10] - **Inflation Dynamics**: Current inflation in the US appears manageable, with service prices rebounding, particularly in air travel and medical services. However, the prices of tariff-sensitive goods have shown mixed trends [10][11][12] - **Retail Performance in the US**: US retail data for July showed a solid performance with a 0.5% month-on-month increase, driven by promotional activities in department stores, although service-related sectors remain weak [14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and challenges of various industries, particularly in the context of economic data and trends.

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has officially closed the "Novel Activities Supervision Program," which was designed to regulate banks' activities in the cryptocurrency and fintech sectors, and will now integrate this oversight into standard banking regulations [1][2] - The closure of the program follows a deeper understanding of the risks associated with cryptocurrency activities, particularly after the collapse of three banks closely tied to the crypto industry [2][3] - The recent actions by the Federal Reserve signal a trend of increasing acceptance of the cryptocurrency industry by U.S. regulators, moving away from previous stringent requirements [4] Regulatory Changes - The "Novel Activities Supervision Program" was established to enhance oversight of banks' involvement in digital assets and blockchain technology, focusing on areas such as crypto asset custody and stablecoin issuance [3] - The latest regulatory changes simplify compliance processes for banks engaging in cryptocurrency activities, while core regulatory principles like anti-money laundering and consumer protection remain unchanged [3] Market Sentiment - Financial markets are highly anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point reduction in September [6][7] - Recent inflation data has created uncertainty among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts, with some officials suggesting a cautious approach [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are currently at $37.86, having retreated from recent highs and are consolidating after breaking the upward channel [1][4]. Price Levels and Market Sentiment - The immediate focus is on reclaiming the 50-period simple moving average at $38.03, which has turned from a support level to a resistance level [2][4]. - The momentum indicators show a bearish bias, with selling pressure easing, but bulls have not yet gained control as silver prices face resistance at $38.03 [3][5]. - Unless silver prices can break above $38.03, the outlook remains neutral to bearish, with a potential retest of lower support levels [4][10]. Technical Indicators - The relative strength index (RSI) is at 46.66, recovering from oversold conditions but still below 50, indicating a mild bearish bias [6]. - The MACD shows that negative momentum is easing, with the histogram contracting and no bullish crossover present [7]. - Price structure indicates lower highs since August 5, with bulls facing resistance [8]. Potential Price Movements - If silver prices close above $38.03, they may rise to $38.50 or even $39.04; conversely, failure to break this level could lead to a retest of $37.31 or even $36.80 [9][12]. - Key resistance levels are at $38.03, $38.50, and $39.04, while support levels are at $37.31, $36.80, and $36.24 [12]. Market Condition - Silver is at a crossroads, with $38.03 acting as a pivot point; a breakout could rejuvenate upward momentum, while rejection may prolong consolidation or push prices back to recent lows [12].

Fundamental Analysis - International gold prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, testing the key support level of $3330 per ounce, with current trading at the lower end of this week's price range [1] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. July retail sales data, hoping it will provide direction for the stagnant gold market [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year rate of 3.3%, significantly higher than the expected 2.5% and previous 2.4% [1] - The month-on-month PPI surged to 0.9%, well above the anticipated 0.2%, impacting Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations [1] - Following the PPI release, the probability of a 100 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 100% to 85%, with aggressive expectations for a 50 basis point cut nearly extinguished [1] - Federal Reserve officials have made statements indicating a lack of necessity for significant rate cuts, aiming to maintain policy flexibility [1] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) showed a significant downward trend, dropping over $40, indicating strong bearish momentum [5] - The price has broken below key moving averages, with the MA60 expected to continue exerting downward pressure on gold prices [5] - The current trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions, anticipating further declines after a brief rebound [5] Trading Strategy - For gold, a short position is recommended around $3355, with a stop loss at $3365 and a target range of $3343 to $3333 [6] - Silver (XAGUSD) also experienced a notable decline, with limited rebound potential, suggesting a bearish outlook [8] - The trading strategy for silver recommends short positions around $38.20, with a stop loss at $38.40 and target levels of $37.95 and $37.60 [8] News Events - Key economic data to be released includes Canadian wholesale sales for June, U.S. retail sales for July, New York Fed manufacturing index for August, and U.S. import price index for July, all scheduled for 20:30 [9]

Group 1 - The market is increasingly anticipating a rate cut in September, with a focus on the Federal Reserve officials' upcoming statements [1][12] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed hesitance towards rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing tariff uncertainties [2][4] - Goolsbee previously suggested a "golden path" for gradual rate cuts, contingent on stable labor markets and moderate inflation [3][5] Group 2 - Goolsbee indicated that more convincing inflation data is needed before confirming the economic outlook [5] - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the idea of two rate cuts this year, citing a weakening labor market and slowing economic growth [7][8] - Daly emphasized the importance of waiting for data before making decisions on the number of rate cuts [8] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for September 16-17 to decide on potential rate cuts [10] - Upcoming economic data releases include the August non-farm payrolls on September 5 and the August CPI on September 11 [10] - Market sentiment is optimistic regarding rate cuts, with futures traders pricing in a high likelihood of a September cut and potentially a third cut by year-end [13]

北京时间8月15日，国际黄金价格在高位附近出现回调，现货黄金交投在每盎司3333.50美元左右，较前 一交易日有所下跌。周四的下行压力主要来自美国通胀数据的意外走高，以及劳动力市场的持续韧性。 DLSM外汇平台认为这两个因素推升了美元与美债收益率，从而削弱了市场对美联储下月大幅降息的预 期。 目前的黄金市场更像是一次耐心与信念的考验。多头需要等待数据的转折点，而空头则寄望于美元与美 债收益率的持续攀升。在这种不确定性中，分批布局、保持仓位灵活，或许比盲目追涨杀跌更为稳妥。 毕竟，金价的下一个方向，仍取决于宏观数据给出的答案。 市场的反应并非仅限于黄金。白银价格同样承压，现货银跌幅达到1.3%，收于每盎司37.97美元。而铂 金和钯金则表现相对坚挺，分别上涨1.1%和2%。这种分化反映出不同贵金属在工业用途与投资避险功 能上的权重差异：铂金和钯金更多与汽车制造和工业需求挂钩，对美元波动的敏感度低于黄金和白银。 短期来看，黄金市场的多空博弈正在进入一个微妙阶段。一方面，宏观经济仍面临放缓压力，地缘局势 也未完全平息，这为黄金提供了中长期支撑。另一方面，美国的经济数据却一次次展示出韧性，尤其是 在通胀与就业指标上， ...