Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The median rate forecast for the end of the year is 3.5%-3.75%, indicating an additional 50 basis points of potential cuts within the year[2] - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management cut," reflecting a balanced policy stance between hawkish and dovish views[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its real GDP growth forecast for next year to 1.8% while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast and raising core inflation expectations[2] - There is significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 9 members advocating for 2 more cuts, while 6 believe no further cuts are necessary[2] - Despite a weakening job market, consumer and retail sales indicators remain robust, suggesting a favorable environment for risk assets[3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The likelihood of two additional 25 basis point cuts in upcoming meetings is high, making the current environment favorable for equities[3] - Investors are advised to maintain equity asset allocations until there is a clear deterioration in economic indicators[3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Unexpectedly strong recovery in the job market and persistent inflation above expectations could delay the Fed's rate cut schedule[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks after the meeting supported the dollar, putting short - term pressure on the RMB and negatively impacting the equity market sentiment. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue according to August economic data, and the bond market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern [8][15]. - In the commodity market, gold is under short - term pressure but has long - term upward potential, and crude oil's trend is volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The commodity index is expected to show wide - range oscillations [9]. - In the foreign exchange market, the dollar has short - term rebound space but is under pressure in the medium term, while the euro is supported as the eurozone's inflation eases and the interest - rate cut cycle nears its end [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stock Market - A - share major indices generally rose this week, except for the Shanghai Composite Index. The four stock index futures showed different trends, with small and medium - cap stocks performing well, ranked as IM>IC>IF>IH. The release of poor August economic data on Monday pressured the stock market, and Powell's hawkish remarks after the Fed's interest - rate cut on Thursday - Friday negatively affected the equity market sentiment. The market trading activity increased slightly this week. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [8][15]. Bond Market - This week, Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends. TS and TL main contracts fell by 0.02% and 0.41% respectively, while TF and T main contracts rose by 0.08% and 0.13% respectively. Emotional factors significantly affect the bond market. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the expectation of restarting Treasury bond trading supports the bond market. The bond market is unlikely to weaken trend - wise, and yields are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [8]. Commodity Market - The Wind Commodity Index fell 0.19%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.12%. Gold is under short - term pressure but has long - term upward potential, and crude oil's trend is volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The commodity index is expected to show wide - range oscillations. The allocation suggestion is to mainly watch [9]. Foreign Exchange Market - The euro against the dollar rose 0.26%, and the euro against the dollar 2509 contract rose 0.22%. The Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's remarks gave the dollar short - term rebound space but put it under medium - term pressure. The eurozone's inflation eases, and the interest - rate cut cycle nears its end, supporting the euro. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9]. Important News and Events - **Global Central Bank Policies**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the ECB kept rates unchanged for the second time, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, and the BoJ kept rates unchanged [13][19]. - **Domestic Policies**: China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, and introduce a series of policies to boost service consumption [15][17]. - **Corporate News**: Since the "14th Five - Year Plan", central SOEs' total assets have increased from less than 7 trillion yuan to over 9 trillion yuan, and their total profit has increased from 1.9 trillion yuan to 2.6 trillion yuan [17]. This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - **China**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries was 5.2% (expected 5.7%, previous value 5.7%), fixed - asset investment was 0.5% (expected 1.4%, previous value 1.6%), infrastructure investment was 3.2%, manufacturing investment was 6.2%, real - estate development investment decreased by 12%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.4% (expected 3.9%, previous value 3.7%) [14]. - **US**: In August, the retail sales monthly rate was 0.6% (expected 0.2%, previous value 0.6%), the industrial output monthly rate was 0.1% (expected - 0.1%, previous value - 0.4%), and the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 were 231,000 (expected 240,000, previous value 264,000) [20]. - **EU**: In July, the seasonally - adjusted trade balance was 53 billion euros (previous value 37 billion euros), the industrial output monthly rate was 0.3% (expected 0.4%, previous value - 0.6%), and the CPI annual rate in August was 2% (expected 2.1%, previous value 2.1%) [20]. - **UK**: The unemployment rate in August was 4.39% (previous value 4.4%) [20]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - From September 22 - 26, there are important economic data releases in China, the eurozone, the US, France, Germany, and the UK, such as China's one - year loan prime rate, the eurozone's consumer confidence index, and the US's core PCE price index [81].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% marks a significant shift in monetary policy, impacting global capital risk pricing and providing a favorable environment for Chinese assets [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Chinese Assets - The 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations and is seen as a preventive risk management measure, which lowers external constraints and creates a favorable window for the strengthening of Chinese assets [2]. - The restoration of the China-U.S. interest rate differential enhances the long-term appeal of Chinese bonds [2]. - The weakening of the strong dollar expectation contributes to stabilizing the RMB exchange rate [2]. - International funds are likely to reduce their concerns about A-shares and RMB assets, leading to increased strategic allocations in a lower risk premium environment [2]. Group 2: Macro Policy Space for China - The Fed's rate cut provides more room for China's macroeconomic policy, although it does not imply a straightforward follow-the-leader approach [3]. - China's macro policy focus remains on stabilizing growth and mitigating risks, with a flexible monetary policy that supports the real economy through structural tools and credit guidance [3]. - Effective investment expansion and optimizing expenditure structure are core strategies on the fiscal side [3]. - The external environment created by the Fed's cut is relatively loose, but domestic economic development and high-quality growth objectives will ultimately dictate policy direction [3]. Group 3: Future Fed Rate Cuts - The Fed's future rate cut trajectory is closely watched, with indications that the policy rate remains above neutral levels, suggesting a cautious approach to further easing [3]. - The Fed may retain policy tools to address potential employment downturn risks rather than fully releasing all easing measures prematurely [3]. - Conditions that could trigger another Fed rate cut include a sustained rise in U.S. unemployment above 4.5%, a significant reduction in consumer momentum, and confirmation that inflationary pressures are transitory [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted its interest rate cut cycle by lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25% after nearly three quarters of pausing rate cuts, indicating a shift towards risk management in monetary policy [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is based on a significant decline in labor supply and demand, a slight increase in unemployment, and reduced persistent inflation risks, suggesting a proactive approach to economic management [2] - The Fed's economic forecast indicates that GDP growth is expected to be 0.2% higher than previously anticipated, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged, reflecting an outlook for a soft landing of the U.S. economy [2] - The dot plot released by the Fed suggests a higher likelihood of consecutive rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, with an increase in the number of rate cuts expected over the next two years [2] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The participation of newly appointed Fed Governor Miran, who voted against the rate cut and favored a 50 basis point reduction, highlights potential divisions within the Fed regarding interest rate policy [3] - Miran's aggressive stance reflects a preference for rapidly lowering the policy rate to alleviate fiscal pressure, indicating that political influences may still affect the Fed's decision-making process [3] - The differing votes among Fed members suggest that the independence of the Federal Reserve may be challenged, leading to potential market volatility and uncertainty regarding the extent of future rate cuts [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected non-farm employment data and inflation returning below 3% [1] - There is a possibility of a global central bank rate cut wave following the Fed's decision, with expectations for the People's Bank of China to have room for monetary policy easing to support the economy and stabilize the real estate and stock markets [2] - The shift in monetary policy may lead to a significant transfer of household savings to capital markets, as lower deposit rates make equities and funds more attractive, with a recommendation for investors to allocate around 20% of their portfolio to gold assets [3] Group 2 - The impact of the Fed's rate cut on global assets includes initial gains in U.S. stock indices followed by a quick pullback, while the dollar index experienced a drop but rebounded by the end of the trading session [2] - Historical trends suggest that Fed rate cuts typically support risk asset prices and alleviate capital outflow pressures in emerging markets, although the current economic conditions in Europe and Japan may limit the extent of dollar depreciation [4] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain stability, with a reduced risk of rapid appreciation or significant depreciation, as the narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential alleviates depreciation pressure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new rate-cutting cycle by lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, which is expected to create new opportunities for Chinese assets in the medium to long term [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Implications - The rate cut has triggered a global market response, with a consensus among fund companies that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to perform well despite short-term volatility [1][6] - The market exhibited a "good news priced in" reaction following the rate cut announcement, with fluctuations in the dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and stock indices [3] - Historical data suggests that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks typically perform well in the months following a Federal Reserve rate cut [7] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Fund companies are optimistic about the long-term outlook for Chinese assets, citing improved liquidity conditions and potential for foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6][8] - Key investment directions identified include technology growth stocks, the Hong Kong market, consumer sectors, and gold assets, with a focus on sectors sensitive to interest rates and benefiting from global liquidity improvements [9]

Core Viewpoints - The current sentiment in the precious metals market remains bullish, with expectations of price increases, particularly for silver, amid a backdrop of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Wengang Futures suggests maintaining a bullish outlook on precious metals prices, particularly silver, due to the anticipated rise in interest rate cut expectations following the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman [1] - Guotou Futures notes that the recent drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. indicates a weaker precious metals market, with potential for a phase of consolidation as the Fed's dovish stance is less than expected [1][2] - Galaxy Futures highlights the persistent risk of stagflation in the U.S., which continues to provide a support base for precious metals prices despite recent market adjustments [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Capital.com analysts indicate that the market sentiment has cooled, with the Fed's lack of dovish guidance leading to increased yields and a stronger dollar, which may hinder gold prices from breaking above $3,700 per ounce [2] - Zaner Metals emphasizes that despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by geopolitical risks and central banks' continued accumulation of gold [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25bps[1] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts expected in 2025, but only one in 2026, suggesting a potential hawkish shift[1] - The Fed's decision is characterized as a "risk-management cut," emphasizing a cautious approach rather than a preemptive one[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed acknowledges a slowdown in the job market, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate edging up but remaining low[3] - Inflation expectations have increased, with the Fed noting that inflation has moved up and remains elevated[3] - The SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) shows an upward revision of GDP growth for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, market pricing indicates expectations for a 25bps cut in October and December[8] - The market has priced in a total of 75bps of cuts across three meetings in 2025, but Powell's comments have tempered expectations for further cuts[8] - The S&P and Nasdaq experienced volatility, while the Dow Jones rose, and the dollar strengthened post-announcement[8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and weak operation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the macro "boot" landing and the inventory still slightly accumulating [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Key factors to watch include macro policies and downstream demand [3] - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a production halt from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will stop production, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the halt [2] Real Estate - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum ingots was consolidating at a high level yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday, but analysts have different interpretations of the Fed's signals. The Fed's dot - plot points to a steady easing pace [2] - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, the import window is open, and the inventory is high. As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, the operating total capacity is 92.33 million tons/year, and the weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is high, and the spot procurement is inactive. The demand side shows signs of recovery, with the overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week. On September 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 13,000 tons from last Thursday. Whether the inventory decline inflection point can appear in late September needs further observation [3]

换资前言： 我们的一对一指导从早上7点-凌晨2点提供全方位的分析，盯单，守盘服务。我们的合作客户可以轻松 的进行交投。这是我们服务的宗旨。我们知道要想和客户的关系像朋友一样融洽，在合作的过程中就力 求做到互惠互利，只有客户在我们这边技术上得到提高，仓位上得到改善，我们负责，耐心的做到授之 以渔，这样才能达到合作共赢的局面。这是我们立足金融行业的追求。群内目前限时开放体验名额每天 实时行情分析，综合胜率90%以上，免费一对一针对性解套，欢迎前来！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五（9月19日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3650.90美元/盎司附近。周四金价延续回 调走势，盘中最低触及3627.88美元/盎司，收报3644.27美元/盎司，美联储主席鲍威尔鸽派不及预期， 美国初请失业金数据好于预期，美元指数和美债收益率大幅反弹，促使黄金多头获利了结，拖累金价表 现。市场参与者正密切权衡美联储的"风险管理式降息"是否会打开宽松大门，还是通胀顽固将拖累黄金 的短期势头。黄金价格以美元计价，其命运往往与美元指数休戚相关。美元的回升，使得以美元计价的 黄金对其他货币持有者来说更 ...