Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% marks a significant shift in monetary policy, impacting global capital risk pricing and providing a favorable environment for Chinese assets [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Chinese Assets - The 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations and is seen as a preventive risk management measure, which lowers external constraints and creates a favorable window for the strengthening of Chinese assets [2]. - The restoration of the China-U.S. interest rate differential enhances the long-term appeal of Chinese bonds [2]. - The weakening of the strong dollar expectation contributes to stabilizing the RMB exchange rate [2]. - International funds are likely to reduce their concerns about A-shares and RMB assets, leading to increased strategic allocations in a lower risk premium environment [2]. Group 2: Macro Policy Space for China - The Fed's rate cut provides more room for China's macroeconomic policy, although it does not imply a straightforward follow-the-leader approach [3]. - China's macro policy focus remains on stabilizing growth and mitigating risks, with a flexible monetary policy that supports the real economy through structural tools and credit guidance [3]. - Effective investment expansion and optimizing expenditure structure are core strategies on the fiscal side [3]. - The external environment created by the Fed's cut is relatively loose, but domestic economic development and high-quality growth objectives will ultimately dictate policy direction [3]. Group 3: Future Fed Rate Cuts - The Fed's future rate cut trajectory is closely watched, with indications that the policy rate remains above neutral levels, suggesting a cautious approach to further easing [3]. - The Fed may retain policy tools to address potential employment downturn risks rather than fully releasing all easing measures prematurely [3]. - Conditions that could trigger another Fed rate cut include a sustained rise in U.S. unemployment above 4.5%, a significant reduction in consumer momentum, and confirmation that inflationary pressures are transitory [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted its interest rate cut cycle by lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25% after nearly three quarters of pausing rate cuts, indicating a shift towards risk management in monetary policy [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is based on a significant decline in labor supply and demand, a slight increase in unemployment, and reduced persistent inflation risks, suggesting a proactive approach to economic management [2] - The Fed's economic forecast indicates that GDP growth is expected to be 0.2% higher than previously anticipated, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged, reflecting an outlook for a soft landing of the U.S. economy [2] - The dot plot released by the Fed suggests a higher likelihood of consecutive rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, with an increase in the number of rate cuts expected over the next two years [2] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The participation of newly appointed Fed Governor Miran, who voted against the rate cut and favored a 50 basis point reduction, highlights potential divisions within the Fed regarding interest rate policy [3] - Miran's aggressive stance reflects a preference for rapidly lowering the policy rate to alleviate fiscal pressure, indicating that political influences may still affect the Fed's decision-making process [3] - The differing votes among Fed members suggest that the independence of the Federal Reserve may be challenged, leading to potential market volatility and uncertainty regarding the extent of future rate cuts [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected non-farm employment data and inflation returning below 3% [1] - There is a possibility of a global central bank rate cut wave following the Fed's decision, with expectations for the People's Bank of China to have room for monetary policy easing to support the economy and stabilize the real estate and stock markets [2] - The shift in monetary policy may lead to a significant transfer of household savings to capital markets, as lower deposit rates make equities and funds more attractive, with a recommendation for investors to allocate around 20% of their portfolio to gold assets [3] Group 2 - The impact of the Fed's rate cut on global assets includes initial gains in U.S. stock indices followed by a quick pullback, while the dollar index experienced a drop but rebounded by the end of the trading session [2] - Historical trends suggest that Fed rate cuts typically support risk asset prices and alleviate capital outflow pressures in emerging markets, although the current economic conditions in Europe and Japan may limit the extent of dollar depreciation [4] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain stability, with a reduced risk of rapid appreciation or significant depreciation, as the narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential alleviates depreciation pressure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new rate-cutting cycle by lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, which is expected to create new opportunities for Chinese assets in the medium to long term [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Implications - The rate cut has triggered a global market response, with a consensus among fund companies that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to perform well despite short-term volatility [1][6] - The market exhibited a "good news priced in" reaction following the rate cut announcement, with fluctuations in the dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and stock indices [3] - Historical data suggests that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks typically perform well in the months following a Federal Reserve rate cut [7] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Fund companies are optimistic about the long-term outlook for Chinese assets, citing improved liquidity conditions and potential for foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6][8] - Key investment directions identified include technology growth stocks, the Hong Kong market, consumer sectors, and gold assets, with a focus on sectors sensitive to interest rates and benefiting from global liquidity improvements [9]

Core Viewpoints - The current sentiment in the precious metals market remains bullish, with expectations of price increases, particularly for silver, amid a backdrop of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Wengang Futures suggests maintaining a bullish outlook on precious metals prices, particularly silver, due to the anticipated rise in interest rate cut expectations following the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman [1] - Guotou Futures notes that the recent drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. indicates a weaker precious metals market, with potential for a phase of consolidation as the Fed's dovish stance is less than expected [1][2] - Galaxy Futures highlights the persistent risk of stagflation in the U.S., which continues to provide a support base for precious metals prices despite recent market adjustments [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Capital.com analysts indicate that the market sentiment has cooled, with the Fed's lack of dovish guidance leading to increased yields and a stronger dollar, which may hinder gold prices from breaking above $3,700 per ounce [2] - Zaner Metals emphasizes that despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by geopolitical risks and central banks' continued accumulation of gold [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25bps[1] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts expected in 2025, but only one in 2026, suggesting a potential hawkish shift[1] - The Fed's decision is characterized as a "risk-management cut," emphasizing a cautious approach rather than a preemptive one[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed acknowledges a slowdown in the job market, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate edging up but remaining low[3] - Inflation expectations have increased, with the Fed noting that inflation has moved up and remains elevated[3] - The SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) shows an upward revision of GDP growth for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, market pricing indicates expectations for a 25bps cut in October and December[8] - The market has priced in a total of 75bps of cuts across three meetings in 2025, but Powell's comments have tempered expectations for further cuts[8] - The S&P and Nasdaq experienced volatility, while the Dow Jones rose, and the dollar strengthened post-announcement[8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and weak operation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the macro "boot" landing and the inventory still slightly accumulating [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Key factors to watch include macro policies and downstream demand [3] - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a production halt from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will stop production, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the halt [2] Real Estate - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum ingots was consolidating at a high level yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday, but analysts have different interpretations of the Fed's signals. The Fed's dot - plot points to a steady easing pace [2] - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, the import window is open, and the inventory is high. As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, the operating total capacity is 92.33 million tons/year, and the weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is high, and the spot procurement is inactive. The demand side shows signs of recovery, with the overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week. On September 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 13,000 tons from last Thursday. Whether the inventory decline inflection point can appear in late September needs further observation [3]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous previous increases, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation. Short - term indexes face adjustment pressure due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - position strategy on dips [3]. - In the bond market, the economic data in August continued to slow down, and the "anti - involution" policy led to a rise in the price level. However, the subsequent export - rush effect may weaken, and exports may face pressure. With the central bank maintaining a loose stance on funds, interest rates are expected to decline, but the short - term trend may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, with the bond market expected to oscillate and recover [6]. - For precious metals, the current weakening of the US economic data and the Fed's "risk - management" rate cut have alleviated the market's expectation of an overseas economic recession, which is positive for silver. The market's expectation of a rate cut will increase with the appointment of a new Fed chairman. A long - position strategy is recommended, focusing on the price increase opportunity of silver [8]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, the Fed's monetary policy is less loose than expected, which cools down the market sentiment. However, due to the traditional peak season for downstream industries and certain disturbances in overseas mines, the prices of some non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate [11]. - In the steel market, the overall commodity market atmosphere is weak, and the prices of steel products continue to oscillate and decline. The Fed's interest rate cut has a limited impact on steel demand in the short term, but may drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry in the long term. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [33]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of some products such as rubber and crude oil have declined. For rubber, the supply - side advantage has decreased, and the short - term trend is weak, while a long - position strategy is maintained in the medium - term. For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the fundamentals are still good, and a long - position strategy is recommended [50][55]. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of some products such as pigs and eggs are weak. For pigs, the supply in September is expected to be abundant, but there are potential supporting factors, and the spot price may fluctuate within a narrow range. For eggs, the supply is still large, but the pressure may decrease marginally, and short - term long - positions in the far - month contracts can be considered after a decline [76][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the TikTok issue; NVIDIA announced a $5 billion investment in Intel; the movie "731" was released globally, breaking the box - office record; Shiyun Circuit's new PCB products are expected to be put into production in mid - 2026 and may supply Tesla in the future. The basis ratios of stock index futures were also provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After continuous previous increases, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence, and short - term indexes face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, a long - position strategy on dips is recommended [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, and the central bank will issue central bank bills in Hong Kong on September 22. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 487 billion yuan on Thursday, with a net injection of 195 billion yuan [4][5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic data in August continued to slow down, and exports may face pressure. With the central bank maintaining a loose stance on funds, interest rates are expected to decline, but the short - term trend may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, with the bond market expected to oscillate and recover [6]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver declined. The US economic data was resilient, and the US dollar index was strong, putting short - term pressure on precious metal prices. The Fed's "risk - management" rate cut alleviated the market's expectation of an overseas economic recession, which is positive for silver [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market's expectation of a rate cut will increase with the appointment of a new Fed chairman. A long - position strategy is recommended, focusing on the price increase opportunity of silver. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are 818 - 850 yuan/gram and 9695 - 10500 yuan/kilogram respectively [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: LME copper prices declined, and SHFE copper was relatively resistant. LME copper inventories decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventories declined [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's monetary policy is less loose than expected, and the short - term copper price may oscillate [11]. Aluminum - **Market News**: LME aluminum prices increased, and SHFE aluminum prices decreased. The position of SHFE aluminum decreased, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's statement was less dovish than expected, but the downstream demand is in the traditional peak season, and the aluminum price is expected to be strongly supported, with attention paid to the support level of 20,700 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market News**: SHFE zinc prices declined, and LME zinc prices also declined. The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory continued to decline [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window of zinc ore is closed, and the short - term zinc price is expected to be weak [15]. Lead - **Market News**: SHFE lead prices increased, and LME lead prices also increased. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is improving. The short - term lead price is expected to be strong [16]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The cost of nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron is expected to increase [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high inventory of refined nickel drags down the nickel price, but in the long - term, the nickel price is expected to be supported. A long - position strategy on dips is recommended, with the reference operating ranges for SHFE nickel and LME nickel being 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton respectively [18][19]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices oscillated and declined. The supply of tin decreased significantly, and the demand increased marginally [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin price is expected to oscillate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The spot price of carbonate lithium was flat, and the futures price declined. The domestic production of carbonate lithium reached a record high, and the inventory decreased slightly [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's statement was lower than expected, but the supply and demand in the lithium - battery peak season are both strong, and the bottom support of carbonate lithium has increased. The lithium price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to industry information and market sentiment [23]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index declined, and the trading volume decreased. The domestic spot price of alumina decreased, and the import window opened [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price of alumina ore is supported, but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting industry is difficult to change in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, with the reference operating range for the main domestic contract being 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless - steel futures price declined, and the social inventory decreased. The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the raw material price was also stable [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures market is under pressure, and the stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The price of the AD2511 contract declined, and the trading volume increased. The domestic average price of ADC12 decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand for casting aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. With the support of cost and increased market activity, the short - term price is expected to remain high [30][31]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined. The social inventory of rebar decreased, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity market atmosphere is weak, and the steel price is expected to decline if demand cannot be effectively restored. The Fed's interest rate cut has a limited impact on steel demand in the short term, but may drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry in the long term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron - ore futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The overseas iron - ore shipment increased, and the domestic port inventory decreased slightly [34][35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term iron - ore price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction speed [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass futures price declined, and the soda - ash futures price also declined. The social inventory of glass decreased, and the social inventory of soda ash also decreased [37][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to oscillate, and the soda - ash market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined. The spot price of manganese silicon was stable, and the spot price of ferrosilicon was also stable [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The price of industrial silicon declined, and the price of polysilicon also declined. The production of industrial silicon increased, and the production of polysilicon was close to the same - period high [44][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to industry capacity - reduction progress. The price of polysilicon is affected by policy and sentiment, and attention should be paid to capacity integration and downstream price - passing progress [45][48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices declined, and the supply - side advantage decreased. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly [50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A long - position strategy is maintained in the medium - term, but a wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term due to the weak trend [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude - oil futures price declined, and the prices of related refined - oil products also declined [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The geopolitical premium has disappeared, but the fundamentals are still good, and a long - position strategy is recommended [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price declined, and the inventory increased. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high inventory puts pressure on the methanol price, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price declined, and the inventory increased. The supply - side operating rate increased, and the demand - side performance was average [57][58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea market is weak, and a wait - and - see strategy or a long - position strategy on dips is recommended [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and a long - position strategy on dips for the pure - benzene US - South Korea spread is recommended [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC futures price declined, and the spot price also declined. The cost - side price was stable, and the demand - side operating rate increased [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. A short - position strategy is recommended, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound due to the "anti - involution" sentiment [62][63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene - glycol futures price declined, and the spot price also declined. The supply - side operating rate was high, and the demand - side operating rate decreased slightly [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and a short - position strategy is recommended, but attention should be paid to the risk of the weak - expectation not being realized [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA futures price declined, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply - side operating rate was stable, and the demand - side operating rate decreased slightly [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA market is expected to oscillate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [67]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The p - xylene futures price declined, and the spot price also declined. The operating rate of p - xylene increased, and the operating rate of PTA was stable [68][69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene market is expected to accumulate inventory, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [70]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased slightly [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is expected to oscillate and increase in the long - term, with attention paid to the cost - side support and seasonal demand [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply - side operating rate increased, and the demand - side operating rate increased slightly [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [74]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: The domestic pig price declined, and the demand was average. Some farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply in September is expected to be abundant, but there are potential supporting factors. A strategy of looking for short - term long - positions after a decline and short - positions after a rebound is recommended, and a reverse - spread strategy is maintained for the far - month contracts [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The domestic egg price declined in some areas, and the supply was sufficient. The downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of eggs is still large, but the pressure may decrease marginally. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and short - term long - positions in the far - month contracts can be considered after a decline [78]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The US soybean price declined slightly, and the domestic soybean - meal price also declined. The domestic soybean - meal trading volume was good, and the inventory was at a high level [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of imported soybeans is expected to be weak, and the domestic soybean - meal market is expected to enter the de - inventory stage in September. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended, waiting for a driving factor to determine the direction [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 10 days of September and increased in the first 15 days. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 10 days of September. The prices of domestic oils and fats declined [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the medium - term, and a strategy of buying on dips after a decline is recommended [83]. Sugar - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined, and the domestic sugar import volume increased in August. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased in the second half of August [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, but a short - term rebound is possible. A cautious trading strategy is recommended [85]. Cotton - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price declined, and the domestic cotton import volume decreased in August. The spot price of cotton increased slightly [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate due to the combination of positive and negative factors [87].

【行情资讯】 贵金属日报 2025-09-19 贵金属 沪金跌 0.71 %，报 828.08 元/克，沪银跌 0.06 %，报 9902.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.08 %， 报 3675.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.09 %，报 42.08 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.11%，美元指数报 97.35 ； 昨夜公布的美国经济数据具备韧性，美元指数表现强势，金银价格短线承压。 美国至 9 月 13 日当周初请失业金人数为 23.1 万人，低于预期的 24 万人以及前值的 26.4 万人。美国 9 月费城联储制造业指数为 23.2，大幅高于预期的 2.5 和前值的-0.3。 本周进行的联储议息会议中，鲍威尔本人对于货币政策的表态总体偏中性，他表示"没有必要 快速调降利率"，并从 pce 的角度认为近期通胀偏高。 但鲍威尔承认了劳动力市场存在的风 险，这是美联储传声筒在会议前表示需要关注的重点。同时，他认为关税对于消费者迄今而言 的影响比较小。对于降息的性质方面，鲍威尔定调本次是"风险管理式"降息，这一定性缓解 了市场对于后续海外经济衰退的预期，对于板块内工业属性更明 ...