证券研究报告 可选消费 六十五载萌力深耕，三丽鸥 IP 沉浮启示录 华泰研究 2025 年 8 月 13 日│中国内地 深度研究 三丽鸥：六十五载萌力深耕，奠定形象 IP 造星密码 三丽鸥是日本原创 IP 龙头之一，以 Hello Kitty 赢得全球知名度及影响力， 成为日本"卡哇伊"潮流代表及文化名片。公司率先探索出有别于迪士尼模 式的形象类 IP 之路，奠定了轻投入+高频率+多维度的 IP 运营成功模式。近 年来，中国潮玩企业纷纷开启出海征程，其中泡泡玛特旗下 Labubu 成为首 个中国诞生的全球知名潮玩 IP，而市场对 IP 价值天花板及周期波动性仍有 较多分歧。我们借助对三丽鸥 65 年发展历程的深度复盘，回溯其打造长青 IP、克服周期波动的成功经验，为国内潮玩企业的出海之路提供参照及借鉴。 发展复盘：国内外市场几经浮沉，困境求变实现涅槃新生 1）1960-1988 年：公司起步于小型礼品配饰，效法迪士尼等美企开发自有 IP，提升商品溢价，率先把握日本情绪消费爆发机遇，打造 Hello Kitty 爆款 IP。2）1989-2013 年：立足于丰富 IP 设计及产品矩阵，乘亚洲经济崛起及 欧美明星 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the IP derivatives industry, indicating a new round of investment opportunities due to rising IP popularity and market trends [6][8]. Core Insights - Sanrio's Q1 FY 2026 results show total revenue, operating profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 49%, 88%, and 38% respectively, driven by the growing popularity of Sanrio characters globally and increased foot traffic in domestic stores and theme parks [3][8]. - The company has raised its FY 2026 earnings forecast, with total sales, operating profit, and net profit for the first half of the fiscal year adjusted to 836 billion yen, 350 billion yen, and 247 billion yen, reflecting increases of 33%, 48%, and 29% respectively [8]. - Sanrio's strategic initiatives include leveraging "evergreen" IPs, expanding its IP matrix, and pursuing globalization to mitigate cyclical risks and ensure stable growth [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the period of April to June 2025, Sanrio's revenue growth was attributed to the increasing global appeal of its characters and the influx of both foreign tourists and domestic customers to its stores and theme parks [3][8]. - Revenue growth by region includes Japan (38%), Europe (200%), North America (23%), Latin America (89%), and Asia (85%), with operating profit growth in the same regions being 58%, 529%, 133%, 106%, and 133% respectively [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Sanrio is focusing on enhancing its IP derivatives through events like the 50th anniversary of Melody and the 20th anniversary of Kuromi, alongside the launch of new content on platforms like Netflix [8]. - The company aims to strengthen its licensing model globally and improve profitability through data-driven product selection and brand collaborations [8]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the IP derivatives sector, highlighting recent successful events and the potential for continued product launches and content development [8]. - The report notes that the recent market corrections have likely absorbed pessimistic expectations, and companies with strong IP management and product innovation capabilities are expected to maintain long-term growth [8].

Group 1 - The exhibition "Light, Transparency, Reflection" by renowned artist Hajime Sorayama is taking place in Chengdu from August 12 to September 16, showcasing his significant works since the late 1970s [1] - The exhibition is organized by Shenzhen Yingyun Cultural Technology Co., Ltd. and Nanzhige Art Center, marking a key breakthrough for Yingyun in the high-end art IP operation sector [1] - Yingyun aims to enhance its influence and reputation in the industry through innovative immersive art experiences and collaborations with top-tier artists [1] Group 2 - Yingyun plans to implement a dual-track IP development strategy, collaborating with high-profile IPs to create scarce content while also working with mid-tier artists to develop proprietary IP products [2] - The company has engaged with over 150 representatives from various institutions during a research event, indicating strong interest in its strategic direction [2] - The management believes that the IP operation market has significant potential, and aims to provide personalized emotional value through differentiated consumption scenarios [2] Group 3 - Yingyun positions itself as a post-link IP operator, focusing on precise user engagement and differentiated monetization strategies after the initial IP development [3] - The company has around 50 IPs available for collaboration and plans to sign and incubate over 10 new IPs in the coming year [3] - Yingyun's collaboration with top artists is expected to rapidly establish its expertise in high-end fashion art IP operations, creating a unique market competitive advantage [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and IP (Intellectual Property) Retail Key Points and Arguments Industry Positioning and Strategy - Pop Mart has transformed its market positioning from a leading blind box and trendy toy company to a full-chain IP operation company, establishing a strong IP operation platform that addresses market skepticism regarding weak content IP longevity and user stickiness [2][3] - The company has enhanced its position in upstream IP resource signing and downstream channel negotiations, confirming the scarcity of trendy toys and quality IP derivative retail formats [2][3] Growth Drivers - Short-term growth drivers include diversified IP monetization and expansion into overseas markets. The projected revenue for 2024 is 13 billion yuan, a 107% year-on-year increase, with profits expected to reach 3.4 billion yuan, a 186% increase [2][4] - Overseas revenue is projected to account for 39% of total revenue in 2024, reflecting a 375% year-on-year growth [2][5] Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Pop Mart employs a direct sales and free IP business model, with core competencies in IP selection, incubation, and operation systems. Exclusive artist IPs like Molly and Demo are expected to contribute 85% of revenue in 2024 [2][6] - The company has a robust membership system, with over 46 million members contributing more than 90% of sales and an average repurchase rate of 49.4% [2][7] Product Line Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its product categories beyond blind boxes to include plush toys, building blocks, and Mega accessories, significantly enriching its product line and monetization channels [2][8] - Plush toy revenue is projected to reach 2.8 billion yuan in 2024, indicating substantial growth potential [9] Market Trends - From 2023 to 2024, the market share of figurines decreased from 76% to 53%, while plush toys and other derivatives saw significant increases, with plush toys rising from 3% to 22% [9] - The Mega series is expected to grow by 146% in 2024, nearing 1.7 billion yuan in revenue, driven by new market scenarios and enhanced value [10] Comparison with Global Competitors - Compared to global players like Sanrio, Bandai, and Disney, Pop Mart is still in the early stages of diversified monetization, indicating significant growth potential in this area [11] International Expansion Strategy - The company has adopted a gradual global expansion strategy, with 120 overseas stores expected by the end of 2024, primarily through direct sales [12][15] - The Southeast Asian market is in a growth phase, while the North American market is still in its early stages, with expectations for rapid growth in the next 1 to 3 years [16] Online Business Development - Pop Mart is innovating in its online business to accelerate user acquisition and repurchase rates, showing a trend of rapid growth in online operations [17] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs have a limited impact on the company's business, as the majority of trendy toy products have low value, making them less sensitive to tariff increases [18] Future Revenue and Profit Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 22.1 billion yuan, 29.9 billion yuan, and 38.7 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 69%, 35%, and 30% respectively [19] Industry Position and Future Outlook - Pop Mart is recognized as a leading player in China's trendy toy industry, with strong barriers in IP incubation, supply chain management, and product innovation. The growth path for the next three to five years is clear, with a target price of 185.6 HKD based on a 40x PE valuation [20]

Investment Highlights - The company launched a collaboration series with "Butter Bear," which gained significant attention, including being featured on the cover of the Chinese version of "Figaro" magazine, leading to a sell-out of limited edition products and a record-breaking online presence during the launch [1] - The company is effectively targeting the young consumer market by creating a differentiated IP matrix and enhancing product value through emotional resonance, which drives consumer engagement and social sharing [1] Sales and Expansion - The company has experienced significant growth in average store sales, with a product repurchase rate reaching 60% in the first half of 2025, and stable performance in overseas stores [2] - The company plans to open over 150 new stores this year, including 10 in overseas markets, indicating strong expansion potential and a robust partnership with franchisees [2] Profit Forecast - The company is positioned as a brand targeting young, fashionable consumers, leveraging strong product design capabilities and cultural integration to create potential blockbuster products [3] - Future earnings are projected to be substantial, with estimated EPS of 0.56, 0.70, and 0.86 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 29, 23, and 19 times at the current stock price [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant growth in terminal sales and is steadily expanding its store network, with a projected net increase of over 150 stores for the year, including 10 new stores in overseas markets [6]. - The launch of the "Butter Bear" collaboration series has successfully captured consumer attention, achieving record sales and engagement, particularly among younger demographics [5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a strong product design capability and a differentiated brand targeting young, fashion-conscious consumers, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.56, 0.70, and 0.86 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 16.44 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 146 billion yuan and a 52-week price range of 4.07 to 17.39 yuan [2]. Sales and Expansion - The average sales per store continue to show high growth, with a product repurchase rate of 60% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong customer loyalty [6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a revenue growth rate of 21.7% in 2025, with expected revenues of 7,933 million yuan, and a significant rebound in net profit projected at 500 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 158.3% [9][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual increase in return on equity (ROE) from 5.3% in 2024 to 20.9% by 2027, indicating improving profitability [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of the IP industry reflects structural changes in demand and the maturity of the supply chain, with a focus on emotional expression and iterative consumption among young consumers [3][12][39] Group 1: Industry Trends - The domestic derivative market is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2024, driven by the increasing demand for emotional projection and instant gratification among consumers [3][12] - The number of pan-2D users in China is expected to grow from 210 million in 2018 to 500 million by 2024, providing a solid consumer base for IP derivatives [16] - The supply chain for the IP industry is maturing, with manufacturing advantages increasingly penetrating the IP sector, particularly in Guangdong province, which produces 85% of China's trendy toy products [18][23] Group 2: Evolution of IP Companies - IP companies are evolving from single head content creators to IP matrix platforms and deep operators, enhancing their ability to create and commercialize IP [4][10] - The focus on head content is crucial in a complex information environment, as demonstrated by the success of "Nezha" films, which have generated over 15 billion yuan in box office revenue [7][26] - Companies are increasingly adopting self-operated or equity cooperation models to expand into downstream IP derivative segments, improving their cash reserves and reducing debt levels [9][27] Group 3: Consumer Demand and Behavior - Young consumers prioritize multi-dimensional needs, with preferences for cartoon, film, and video game IP products, reflecting a shift from single-function to multi-value consumption [12][14] - The "Guzi economy" has emerged, highlighting the demand for emotional connection and satisfaction among consumers [3][12] Group 4: Financial Performance and Investment - The financial health of IP companies has improved, with cash reserves increasing and debt levels remaining low, enabling further strategic investments [26][27] - The volatility in revenue and profit growth among media IP companies underscores the need for diversified income streams to mitigate risks associated with content lifecycle uncertainties [25][39] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of IP companies lies in industrialized content production, diversified revenue structures, and the establishment of a robust IP matrix to enhance value [39][42][45] - The integration of technology and innovative operational strategies will be key to maximizing the value of IP and ensuring sustainable growth [42][43]

Core Insights - The 2025 PTS Beijing International Trend Toy Exhibition, hosted by Pop Mart, is themed "Return to Playfulness, Seek the Wilderness of the Heart," showcasing global popular IPs and featuring numerous artists and designers [1] - A strategic cooperation framework agreement was signed between Pop Mart and the Beijing Cultural and Tourism Bureau to explore the modern integration of intangible cultural heritage and trendy toys, aiming to enhance cultural innovation and economic benefits in Beijing [1] - Since its inception in 2017, PTS has evolved into a globally recognized platform for creators to showcase their creativity and the unique charm of trendy toy IPs [1] Exhibition Experience - The exhibition has upgraded its interactive experiences, moving beyond a simple buying and selling logic to provide a more immersive experience for attendees [2] - The "Bubble Street" concept has been enhanced with interactive installations, allowing fans to deepen their understanding of IPs while shopping [2] - Various engaging activities, such as DIY workshops and creative competitions, have been introduced to enrich the visitor experience [2][3] Global IP Collaboration - This year's exhibition features numerous international IP giants like Disney and Universal, alongside emerging artists and designers, promoting a diverse range of IPs [3] - The event aims to facilitate global IP interactions and exchanges, allowing fans to immerse themselves in the unique worlds of various IPs [3] Artist Engagement - Pop Mart's well-known IPs and emerging artists participated in signing events, enhancing fan engagement and awareness of new IPs [4] - New artists shared their creative inspirations and processes, stimulating audience curiosity about the artistic core of trendy toys [5] Industry Impact - PTS has established itself as a top-tier global IP event, promoting deep exchanges and innovations within the trendy toy culture [6] - Since its rebranding in 2021, PTS has attracted over 300,000 visitors and featured over 500 top artists from various countries [6] - Pop Mart aims to continuously discover and nurture talented artists, creating products that resonate emotionally with consumers [6] Future Outlook - With the ongoing internationalization strategy, PTS is expected to attract more global artists and designers, further deepening the emotional connection between fans and IP artists [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Pop Mart (09992), with the current stock price corresponding to 33/26 times adjusted P/E for 2025/2026, and a target price of 330 HKD, indicating a 35% upside potential [1] Group 1: Company Evolution - Over the past fifteen years, Pop Mart has evolved from its inception to a diversified entity and now aims for global presence, establishing an IP matrix with the largest IP, THE MONSTERS, projected to generate over 3 billion CNY in revenue by 2024, alongside four IPs generating over 1 billion CNY and thirteen IPs generating over 100 million CNY [2] - The revenue contribution from different product categories has shifted, with figurines now accounting for 53%, plush toys at 22%, and MEGA and derivative products contributing 13% and 12% respectively [2] - Overseas revenue has surpassed 5 billion CNY, with Southeast Asia contributing 47%, East Asia 27%, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan 14%, and North America and Europe 11% [2] Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive operational system, focusing on IP discovery through systematic mechanisms like exhibitions and internal incubation, enhancing the success rate [3] - Product-driven IP operation helps extend categories and styles, with recent new product launches showing increased speed and higher success rates, validating the platform advantage [3] - A direct sales system strengthens control over inventory and pricing, allowing the company to respond to terminal demand and inform product development [3] Group 3: Future Prospects - The overseas market presents significant growth opportunities, with North America entering a rapid growth phase, Europe preparing for expansion, and Southeast Asia expected to maintain strong performance [4] - Compared to world-class IPs like Hello Kitty, LABUBU has substantial room for growth and aims to become a global super IP, supported by a platform-based IP operation system [4] - Diverse business lines, including figurines and plush toys, are still in the growth phase, with potential for expansion into building blocks, accessories, theme parks, and content ecosystems [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant stock price surge of Giant Legend, driven by strategic partnerships and celebrity influence, particularly involving Jay Chou [1][2][5] - Giant Legend's stock price increased over 36% in a single trading session, with a total increase of nearly 200% since July [1][3] - The company announced a strategic partnership with Hangzhou Yushu Technology to develop consumer-grade robots, enhancing its IP and marketing capabilities [2][4] Group 2 - Giant Legend's revenue for 2024 reached 584 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.75%, with a net profit of 56.05 million yuan, up 62.4% [4] - The company focuses on IP creation and operation, with its IP business contributing over 50% of total revenue [4] - The collaboration with Yushu Technology and the existing partnership with Pop Mart highlight the company's strategy of leveraging celebrity IP for market growth [5][6]