Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The fundamentals show that the TC spot index of copper concentrate has slightly rebounded but still operates in the negative range, and port inventories have slightly increased. Recently, the decline in copper prices has dragged down the quotation of copper ore slightly. On the supply side, due to the relatively abundant raw materials recently and the good price of by - product sulfuric acid from smelters, smelters' production willingness remains relatively positive, and the domestic supply volume may increase steadily and slightly. On the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, the start - up and orders of downstream copper processing enterprises have declined. Coupled with the price - holding behavior of holders, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market is relatively light. In terms of inventory, domestic social inventories have slightly accumulated but still operate at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, but due to the increasing macro - policy benefits, the industry expectations are gradually being repaired. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.53, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1204, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,849 dollars/ton, down 11 dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract is - 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is 1,583 lots, up 2,935 lots. LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons, down 100 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 12,575 tons, down 1,500 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 25,507 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,695 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 15 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 66.96 dollars/ton, down 13.2 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 43.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.34 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,030 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,730 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,690 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,100 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.57%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.02%, down 0.10%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 12.4%, up 0.0291; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.53, down 0.1204 [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the national economy generally operated steadily and improved. The more proactive fiscal policy has achieved remarkable results. In the second half of the year, to promote consumption and investment, the fiscal policy will continue to act proactively. The LPR in China remained unchanged in July for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Market institutions generally expect that there is room for further decline in LPR in the second half of the year. International rating agency Fitch said that policy risks cast a shadow over the US credit outlook. Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates [2].

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive review of the financial markets on July 22, 2025, including stock indices, central bank operations, economic data, and corporate news [1][2][4] Market Indices Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hang Seng Index opened 165 points higher and reached a high of 25,010 points, a three - year high since February 2022, closing at 24,994 points, up 168 points or 0.7% with a turnover of HK$263.012 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 53 points or 0.6% to close at 9,040 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 46 points or 0.8% to close at 5,585 points [1] A - share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 25 points or 0.7% to close at 3,559 points, a nine - month high since October last year, with a turnover of RMB730.9 billion [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 93 points or 0.9% to close at 11,007 points, with a turnover of RMB969.1 billion [2] - The ChiNext Index rose 19 points or 0.9% to close at 2,296 points, with a turnover of RMB444 billion [2] US Stock Market - The S&P 500 Index rose 0.1% to close at 6,305 points, closing above 6,300 points for the first time, and the Nasdaq rose 78 points or 0.4% to close at 20,974 points [2] Central Bank Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted 170.7 billion yuan of seven - day reverse repurchase operations on July 21, with an operating rate of 1.4%. There were 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2] - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.1522, down 24 points [2] Economic Data - The overall consumer price index in June 2025 increased by 1.4% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.7% and the 1.9% increase in May 2025. The basic inflation rate was 1%, the same as in May [4] Corporate News - JD.com's self - operated takeaway store "Seven Fresh Kitchen" opened on July 20 [4] - Transsion Holdings is considering a secondary IPO in Hong Kong, planning to raise about US$1 billion (equivalent to about HK$7.8 billion), but the discussion is in the early stage [4] - Harbin Electric issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit of about 1.02 billion yuan for the six months ended June, compared with 523 million yuan in the same period last year [5] - Meitu expects an adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company's equity holders to increase by about 65% - 72% year - on - year for the six months ended June 30, 2025. Considering non - cash and non - operating items, the net profit is expected to increase by no less than 30% [5] International News - The Kremlin said it does not rule out a meeting between the Russian and US presidents if they both visit Beijing in September. Russian President Putin will visit China for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II [3] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US government focuses on the quality of trade agreements and will not rush to reach an agreement. Countries in trade negotiations with the US may face high tariffs if no agreement is reached by August 1 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The structural market in index futures continues and supports the market [1] - On July 21, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF increased by 0.68%, IH by 0.25%, IC by 0.99%, and IM by 0.89% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF decreased by 24,940 lots, IH by 19,875 lots, IC by 9,461 lots, and IM by 1,381 lots [2] - In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 2,025 lots, IH by 634 lots, while IC increased by 5,196 lots and IM by 15,851 lots [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1期指期现数据跟踪 - **Index Futures Data**: Presented the closing prices, price changes, basis, trading volumes (in billions), trading volumes, and position changes of various index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM on July 21, 2025 [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The total trading volume of the four major index futures decreased, and the position changes of different index futures varied [2] - **20 - Member Position Changes**: Showed the long - and short - position changes of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [5] 3.2重要驱动 - **LPR Quote**: The LPR quote in July remained stable. The 1 - year LPR was reported at 3%, and the 5 - year - plus variety was reported at 3.5% [6] - **Sino - US Leaders' Meeting**: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there was no information available regarding the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders in the next few months [6] - **US - EU Trade Tension**: The US Secretary of Commerce set August 1 as the "hard" deadline. If the EU fails to reach a new trade agreement by then, it will face at least a 30% tariff, and the EU is preparing a full - scale counterattack [6] - **Stock Market Performance**: The broader market opened higher and continued the upward trend in a volatile manner. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index followed the upward trend in the afternoon. A - share trading volume increased to 1.73 trillion yuan [6][7]

如何理解7月份LPR"按兵不动" 金十数据7月22日讯，业内专家普遍认为，LPR继续"按兵不动"符合预期。从央行公开市场操作看，作 为LPR参考基础的7天期逆回购操作利率为1.40%，并未发生变化。另外，央行在5月份加大逆周期调节 力度出台实施的一揽子金融支持举措，其传导和成效也需要时间观察。因此，7月份LPR维持不变。在 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟看来，7月份LPR"按兵不动"，可以更好地配合下半年将陆 续推出的各项逆周期调节措施，有助于商业银行更好地处理支持实体经济与保持自身健康性的关系。 （金融时报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year and above, aligning with market expectations, indicating a stable economic environment and potential for future rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Current LPR Status - The LPR remains unchanged due to stable policy interest rates and a strong economic performance in Q2, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [1] - The current corporate loan rate averages around 3.3%, down approximately 45 basis points year-on-year, while personal housing loan rates average 3.1%, down about 60 basis points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Experts anticipate that there is still room for LPR to decline in the second half of the year, driven by the need to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [2] - The likelihood of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is expected to increase in Q3 or Q4, which may lead to a corresponding decrease in LPR [2]

期货日报网讯(记者曲德辉肖佳煊)中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心今日公布，2025年7月21 日贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均与上期持平。以上LPR在下 一次发布LPR之前有效。 展望下半年LPR调整方向，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，下半年外部环境仍面临很大不确定性， 在大力提振内需、"更大力度推进房地产市场止跌回稳"过程中，政策利率及LPR报价还有下调空间。王 青预计，外部环境波动对出口的影响将主要在下半年显现，在物价水平偏低的背景下，预计下半年央行 还会继续降息，并带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟进下调。这将引导企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度下 行，激发内生性融资需求，这也是下半年促消费扩投资、对冲外需放缓的一个重要发力点。 LPR是贷款市场报价利率(Loan Prime Rate)的简称，是具有代表性的报价行对其最优质客户的贷款利 率，以公开市场操作利率加点形成的方式报价，由人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心计算并公布的 基础性的贷款参考利率。LPR每月产生一次，是贷款利率定价的主要参考基准。 格林大华期货首席专家王骏认为，此前一年期和五年期LPR ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations. Analysts anticipate further interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may lead to a more significant decrease in mortgage rates for residents [1][4][8]. Group 1: LPR Stability and Market Expectations - The LPR has remained stable for two consecutive months, reflecting the unchanged policy interest rates from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) [4][5]. - The decision to keep the LPR unchanged is attributed to stable economic performance in Q2 and a lack of significant changes in factors influencing LPR adjustments [4][5]. - Analysts expect the LPR to remain stable in the short term as the market observes the effects of previous monetary policy adjustments [5][8]. Group 2: Future Projections and Policy Implications - There is a possibility of a separate decline in the 5-year LPR, which could significantly lower residential mortgage rates, addressing high mortgage costs and stimulating housing demand [6][9]. - The PBOC is expected to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on boosting domestic demand and stabilizing market expectations [8]. - Analysts predict that the next LPR reduction may occur in early Q4, potentially exceeding the previous cut of 10 basis points, reaching up to 20 basis points [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.87%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly, and over 4,000 stocks rose. Industry sectors generally increased, with building materials, building decoration, and steel sectors strengthening significantly while bank stocks fell against the market [2]. - In the domestic economic fundamentals, the Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year, meeting market expectations. However, the growth rates of social retail sales and fixed - asset investment declined significantly, and the real estate market continued to decline. Exports improved due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations. In financial data, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 in June accelerated compared to May, with the M1 growth rate rising significantly and the M2 - M1 gap narrowing, indicating improved investment and consumption willingness of residents and enterprises [2]. - The LPR quotes in July remained unchanged. The Q2 GDP meeting expectations alleviated the urgency of LPR cuts. The profit performance of listed companies that have announced semi - annual performance forecasts is differentiated. Overall, the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of the trade - in policy for social retail sales has weakened. However, the effectiveness of loose monetary policies has emerged, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. As the Politburo meeting approaches at the end of July, market bulls may pre - arrange, and stock indexes still have long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) was at 4064.8 (+29.6), IH (2509) at 2771.2 (+8.0), IC (2509) at 6055.6 (+62.4), and IM (2509) at 6463.2 (+59.4). The prices of secondary contracts also increased [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts had various changes, such as the IF - IH spread up 17.8, the IC - IF spread up 32.0, etc. [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between quarterly and monthly contracts of different varieties had different trends, with some rising and some falling [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF decreased by 130.0 to - 28,974.00, while those in IH increased by 1811.0 to - 15,786.00. The net positions of the top 20 in IC and IM also increased [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, and the basis of corresponding futures contracts changed, mostly decreasing [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 17,271.35 billion yuan, up 1338.16 billion yuan. Margin trading balance decreased by 20.66 billion yuan to 19,023.36 billion yuan. Northbound trading volume increased by 99.31 billion yuan to 1946.21 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 73.92%, up 25.91 percentage points. Shibor was 1.366%, down 0.096 percentage points. The closing prices and implied volatilities of call and put options changed, and the 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index increased [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares, technical, and capital indicators in the Wind analysis showed upward trends, with increases of 1.50, 2.60, and 0.50 respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of July 18, 1540 A - share listed companies announced 2025 semi - annual performance forecasts, with 674 pre - optimistic, a pre - optimistic ratio of about 43.77% [2]. - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Key economic data and events to watch include the July SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary values of France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK on July 24, the European Central Bank interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims, and the US July SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value, as well as China's June industrial enterprise profits on July 27 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for the 1-year rate and 3.5% for the 5-year rate, aligning with market expectations and reflecting a stable monetary policy environment [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Context - The LPR remains unchanged amid a stable backdrop of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, indicating a cautious approach by the PBOC in response to the economic environment [2][4]. - The PBOC has emphasized the need for a balanced approach between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, as highlighted in their first-quarter monetary policy report [5]. Economic Indicators - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans in the first half of the year were approximately 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively, showing a decrease of about 45 and 60 basis points compared to the same period last year [7]. - Recent data on fixed asset investment and the real estate market have fallen short of market expectations, indicating that the economic foundation requires strengthening [7]. Future Outlook - There is a consensus among market institutions that there is potential for further downward adjustments in the LPR in the second half of the year, particularly if external economic pressures increase [2][6]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC may consider lowering the LPR to reduce financing costs for the real economy, especially in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - The focus may shift from merely lowering loan rates to reducing overall financing costs, including non-interest expenses, to better support economic activity [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined in the previous trading session, with the T2509 contract down 0.09% and little change in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, presenting no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed movements, and key - term Treasury bond yields also varied. Overseas, US 10Y Treasury bond yields declined, German 10Y yields rose, and Japanese 10Y yields fell. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures, but the "anti - involution" policy drives some commodity prices to strengthen, increasing the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices in the short term [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On the previous trading day, for TS2509, the closing price was 102.434, down 0.006 (-0.01%); for TS2512, it was 102.498, down 0.004 (0.00%); for TF2509, 105.990, down 0.055 (-0.05%); for TF2512, 106.050, down 0.065 (-0.06%); for T2509, 108.790, down 0.095 (-0.09%); for T2512, 108.860, down 0.080 (-0.07%); for TL2509, 120.46, down 0.270 (-0.22%); for TL2512, 120.3, down 0.260 (-0.22%) [2] - **Open Interest and Volume**: Open interest for TS2509 was 113080 (down 174), TS2512 was 8999 (down 110), TF2509 was 157810 (up 943), TF2512 was 37446 (up 721), T2509 was 192316 (down 630), T2512 was 37438 (up 270), TL2509 was 115390 (down 1221), TL2512 was 32595 (up 128). Trading volumes were 22678 for TS2509, 1786 for TS2512, 44183 for TF2509, 2983 for TF2512, 51738 for T2509, 5384 for T2512, 72268 for TL2509, and 5564 for TL2512 [2] - **Spread**: The inter - delivery spread for TS was -0.064 (previous value -0.062), TF was -0.060 (previous value -0.070), T was -0.070 (previous value -0.055), and TL was 0.160 (previous value 0.170) [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of active CTD bonds for each contract was between 1.3735% - 1.8005%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds showed mixed movements. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.75bp to 1.67%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 26.02bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Yields**: US 10Y Treasury bond yields fell 3bp, German 10Y yields rose 1bp, and Japanese 10Y yields fell 1.4bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 18, the central bank conducted 1875 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a rate of 1.4%, with a net injection of 1028 billion yuan. This week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 2000 billion yuan of MLF and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits [3] - **LPR**: The latest LPR will be announced on July 21, and it is widely expected to remain unchanged [3] - **Trade and Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to US and Canadian trade - related measures, emphasizing cooperation and safeguarding Chinese enterprises' rights [3] - **Hydropower Project**: The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [3] - **Fed**: Fed Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July, and Trump urged the Fed to cut rates. The US July Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation hit a five - month low [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: On July 18, most money market interest rates showed mixed movements, with some rising and some falling [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields declined across the board, mainly due to Waller's dovish remarks and the decline in inflation expectations [3] Comment and Strategy - The central bank's supportive monetary policy supports Treasury bond futures prices, but the "anti - involution" policy boosts commodity prices, increasing the short - term volatility of Treasury bond futures prices [3]