Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the 10-year main contract showing a minor increase of 0.03% while overall yields on major interbank bonds are rising by approximately 1 basis point [1] - The central bank has increased its net reverse repurchase operations, leading to a positive sentiment in the short-term funding market, despite upcoming tax payments. Future MLF operations are expected to stabilize funding expectations [1] - Major banks have lowered deposit rates and the May LPR, which initially caused the 10-year bond yield to drop to 1.65% before rebounding. This suggests that the bond market may have anticipated these changes, leading to profit-taking by some institutions [1] Group 2 - The recent trading activity of the government bond ETF (511520) has been robust, with transaction amounts exceeding 100 billion for three consecutive days, and over 14 billion on the last day. This ETF is the largest in the market and the only long-duration government bond ETF available [1] - The ETF has a duration of approximately 7.5 years and offers good liquidity, making it suitable for clients looking to extend duration easily. It serves as an effective tool for both trading and allocation in the bond market [1]

中证网讯①5月20日，港股创新药板块强势上涨，多只相关主题ETF跳空高开，港股创新药 50ETF(513780)、港股创新药ETF(513120)、港股通创新药ETF工银(159217)、港股创新药ETF基金 (520700)涨超5%；军工、国防、航空航天、地产等相关主题ETF小幅收跌。 ③ 继摩根中证A500增强策略ETF之后，第二只跟踪中证A500指数的增强策略ETF——国泰中证A500增 强策略ETF于5月21日宣告成立。该基金首发募集规模为5.70亿元，募集有效认购总户数为2440户。 ④ 消息面上，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，5月20日贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为：1 年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均较上期下行10个基点。中国建设银行、招商银行等银行下 调人民币存款利率，一年期定期存款利率为0.95%。(王鹤静) ② 部分港股医药主题ETF昨日遭遇资金获利止盈，昨日涨超5%的港股创新药ETF(513120)净流出超5亿 元，昨日涨超3%的恒生医疗ETF(513060)净流出超4亿元，均位居ETF前列。此外，以短融ETF(511360) 为代表的债券型ETF持续"吸 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 观点参考 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均高开低走，全天震荡整理。消息面，LPR 报价调降 10BP，符合市场预期， 因为 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the 1-year LPR to 3% and the 5-year LPR to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points, marking the first decline this year, signaling a clear intention to stabilize the market and expectations [1] - The adjustment of LPR is expected to lower loan interest rates, which will directly impact borrowing costs for consumers and businesses [1] - Prior to this adjustment, the mortgage rates for first-time homebuyers in Beijing were 3.15%, while second-home buyers faced rates of 3.55% within the Fifth Ring Road and 3.35% outside it [1] Group 2 - A rough estimate indicates that a 10 basis point decrease in the 5-year LPR could reduce monthly interest payments by over 50 yuan for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years, saving borrowers over 20,000 yuan in total interest [2] - The decline in deposit rates is beneficial for maintaining the stability of commercial banks' net interest margins, enhancing the sustainability of financial support for the real economy [2] - The simultaneous decline of LPR and deposit rates is expected to further lower financing costs for enterprises and residents, stimulating demand for financing, promoting consumption, and expanding investment, thereby contributing to economic recovery [2]

王青：预计下半年央行还会继续实施降息 金十数据5月21日讯，展望后期，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，当前外部环境仍面临很大不确定 性，国内稳增长政策还不能松劲。预计下半年央行还会继续实施降息，这意味着年内两个期限品种的 LPR还有下行空间。在王青看来，下调政策利率并引导LPR下行，将带动企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度 下调，降低实体经济融资成本，这是现阶段扩投资、促消费的一个重要发力点，也有助于缓解计入物价 因素后，当前企业和居民实际贷款利率偏高现象，激发企业和居民内生融资需求。 （证券日报） ...

周二中国央行发布的公告显示，1年期LPR报3.0%，5年期以上报3.5%，均降低10个基点，此次LPR下调 符合市场预期。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，当前外部环境仍面临很大不确定性，国内稳增长政 策还不能松劲。预计下半年央行还会继续实施降息，年内两个期限品种的LPR还有下行空间。（证券日 报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The current external environment remains highly uncertain, and domestic growth stabilization policies should not be relaxed yet [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - It is expected that the central bank will continue to implement interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with room for two types of LPR to decline within the year [1] - The recent reduction in deposit rates by state-owned banks is anticipated to lead other commercial banks to follow suit, resulting in an overall deposit rate decrease of approximately 0.11 to 0.13 percentage points [1] - This adjustment in deposit rates is expected to offset the impact of the LPR reduction on various loan rates, thereby stabilizing the banks' net interest margin [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the recent reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates will lower financing costs for businesses and residents, thereby boosting market confidence and supporting stable growth in the real economy [1][2][5] - The LPR has decreased for the first time in seven months, signaling a positive move towards reducing corporate financing costs and easing the burden on residents [3][5] - The simultaneous decline in LPR and deposit rates reflects the effective functioning of the market-based adjustment mechanism, enhancing banks' ability to price loans competitively [4][5] Group 2 - The reduction in LPR is expected to stimulate effective financing demand from both enterprises and residents, which is crucial for expanding investment and consumption [2][3] - Lower deposit rates will help banks maintain a reasonable net interest margin, which is essential for sustaining their ability to support the real economy [4][5] - Investors are encouraged to optimize their asset allocation in response to declining deposit rates, with a focus on diversifying investments across various asset classes [6][7]

点击上图 ▲立即加入 5年期和1年期LPR利率均下调10基点 5月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年5月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为 3.5%。5年期和1年期利率均下调10基点。为LPR年内首降。此前，作为政策利率的7天逆回购利率已经由1.5%下调为1.4%，本月LPR降息符合 市场预期。 中国四大行工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行均发布消息，下调人民币存款利率，最大降幅25个基点。其中，活期利率下调5个基点至 0.05%；定期整存整取三个月期、半年期、一年期、二年期均下调15个基点，分别为0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%；三年期和五年期均下调 25个基点，分别至1.25%和1.3%。（华尔街见闻） ｜点评｜ LPR利率正式下调后，大行存款利率马上跟随大幅调降，中小银行的存款利率调降预计也将很快到来。今年国内宏观数据整体表现较 有韧性，但外贸环境生变，内需修复缓慢，确实需要降息来继续强化经济回暖态势。不过，今年银行业整体的净息差在去年创历史新低的基础 上再次下滑，盈利空间再次被压缩。 本次LPR下调后，不少城市的房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts on deposits and loans by major banks signal a proactive approach by the government to lower financing costs for businesses and reduce the burden on residents, reflecting a commitment to stabilize economic growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have initiated the first round of deposit rate cuts this year, with the largest reductions of 25 basis points for three-year and five-year deposits, and one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1% [1][3]. - The one-year LPR and five-year LPR have been reduced by 10 basis points, now standing at 3% and 3.5% respectively, marking the first rate cut since 2025 [1][4]. - The reduction in deposit rates is greater than the LPR cut, which helps lower banks' funding costs and creates room for further LPR adjustments [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the dual reduction in LPR and deposit rates is a positive signal from policymakers aimed at stimulating effective financing demand and stabilizing credit levels amid external uncertainties [2][3]. - The recent monetary policy easing is expected to boost market risk appetite, as evidenced by the rise in A-share indices and the Hang Seng Index [1]. Group 3: Housing Loan Impact - The LPR cut directly affects mortgage rates, with the average mortgage rate expected to decrease to 3% following the 10 basis point reduction [6]. - For a 1 million loan over 30 years, the total repayment amount could decrease by approximately 20,000, with monthly payments reduced by about 55 [6]. - In Guangzhou, the actual mortgage rate remains unchanged at 3% due to adjustments in the banks' pricing strategies, despite the LPR cut [6][7].