来源：雪球 昨天和一位朋友聊投资 ， 截屏给我看了他的投资帐户收益情况 ， 10年时间赚了89.63% ， 我看到右上角的数字 " 战胜91.16%的股友 "。 我算了一下 ， 年化收益率约为6.6% 。 这个结果让我惊讶 ， 投资10年时间不被市场淘汰 ， 可以坚守下来的人不多 ， 我身边早期投资股票的同 学 、 朋友和同事相当一部分都退出了股市 ， 留下来的都是股市中的幸存者 ， 6.6%的年化收益率就能在幸存者中站上金字塔的上层 。 不知道大家看到这个数据有何感想 ？ 还追求1年翻倍吗 ？ 10年能翻1倍就能战胜绝大多数人了 。 常看到网络上有人晒高收益 ， 给人一种错觉 ， 以为股票投资很容易暴富 ， 其实这类人都是极少数 ， 他们的方法难以模仿 ， 或只是阶段性的好运气 ， 不可复制 。 广东有句俗语 " 人心不足蛇吞象 " ， 只有知足 ， 知股票投资的艰难 ， 才对市场有敬畏之心 ， 才能脚踏实地 ， 不激进不冒险 ， 不抱暴富之心 ， 潜心打好股票投资的基本功 ， 保持长期投资的理性和持股的耐性 ， 收益才有保障 。 我的股龄有19年了 ， 年化收益率大约14% （ 没有公开验证 ， 仅仅是自 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the psychological factors behind the irresistible allure of speculation in the stock market, highlighting how investors often become trapped in cycles of hope and loss [2][5] - It references historical examples, such as a speculator during the 1929 crash who lost significant wealth despite initial success, illustrating the dangers of not recognizing when to exit [2][4] - The narrative includes a comparison to the book "The Money Game," which captures the timeless nature of speculative behavior and the human tendency to chase quick profits [3][6] Group 2 - The text emphasizes the importance of understanding the risks associated with speculation, contrasting it with value investing, which focuses on long-term growth and stability [6][7] - It notes that while short-term speculation can yield high returns, it often leads to significant losses, reinforcing the idea that true wealth accumulation comes from disciplined investing [7] - The article concludes that value investors, who view securities as ownership stakes in companies, are less likely to be swayed by speculative trends and are more focused on sustainable growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the psychological aspects of speculation in the stock market, highlighting the risks and temptations that lead investors to engage in high-risk trading despite potential losses [1][2][3]. Group 1: Speculation and Investor Psychology - Many investors are drawn to the excitement of speculative trading, often leading to significant financial losses when market conditions change [2][3]. - Historical examples illustrate how even successful investors can fall victim to the allure of speculation, as seen in the story of a trader who lost a substantial fortune despite initially being successful [3][4]. - The article emphasizes that understanding one's own psychological tendencies is crucial in avoiding the pitfalls of speculation [3][5]. Group 2: Investment vs. Speculation - The distinction between investment and speculation is highlighted, with investment being a more stable approach focused on long-term gains, while speculation is characterized by high risk and potential for quick profits [6][7]. - Value investors are portrayed as those who remain disciplined and avoid the temptations of speculative trading, understanding that true wealth accumulation comes from consistent, long-term strategies [7][8]. - The article notes that while short-term gains from speculation may be enticing, they often lead to greater losses, reinforcing the idea that sustainable wealth is built through value investing [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the comparative performance of gold as an investment asset versus value investing, highlighting that while gold has appreciated significantly over the years, it does not match the returns generated by value investments like Berkshire Hathaway [5][10][12]. Group 1: Gold's Unique Characteristics - Gold is a non-reproducible asset, unlike diamonds, which can be artificially produced [2][3]. - The inability to artificially produce gold contributes to its status as a high-value commodity [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Price Performance - The price of gold was fixed at $35 per ounce during the Bretton Woods system until its dissolution in 1971, with market prices beginning to fluctuate from 1968 [5]. - As of October 24, 2025, the market price of gold reached $4,126 per ounce, representing a 117-fold increase over 57 years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% [5][7]. Group 3: Comparison with Value Investing - In 1965, Warren Buffett acquired Berkshire Hathaway at a book value of $19.24 per share, with his average purchase price around $14 to $15 per share [8][10]. - The returns from Berkshire Hathaway's investments significantly outperformed gold's price appreciation over the same period [10][12]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Investment Limitations - The article notes that the period from 1980 to 2008 saw stagnant gold prices, while a notable bull market for gold occurred from 2019 to 2025 [11]. - Berkshire Hathaway's large scale limits its ability to find high-return investment opportunities, contrasting with smaller investors who can capitalize on more diverse opportunities [11][12].

Core Insights - The article discusses a recent AI trading competition where top AI models from China and the US were tested in real-time cryptocurrency trading, with each model starting with $10,000 in capital [3][5] - The competition aims to evaluate AI's ability to navigate the unpredictable financial markets, contrasting with traditional static benchmarks used to assess AI capabilities [3][5] Group 1: AI Trading Competition Overview - The competition involved six AI models trading major cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and DOGE without human intervention, focusing on maximizing account value [3] - DeepSeek Chat v3.1 initially showed a return of nearly 40%, but later stabilized around 10% after market fluctuations [5] - GPT-5, despite its popularity, reported a significant loss of 68.9%, indicating potential limitations in its trading strategy [5][11] Group 2: Performance Analysis of AI Models - Grok-4 adopted an aggressive trading strategy, achieving over 40% profit initially but later faced sharp declines due to market changes [6] - Qwen3 Max outperformed DeepSeek Chat v3.1 by employing a highly leveraged strategy, achieving a total return of 13.41% [8] - The article questions the superior performance of DeepSeek, suggesting that its training background may not fully explain its leading position in the competition [8][10] Group 3: Limitations of General AI Models - GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 Pro struggled due to their design as general-purpose models, which may have led to noise in trading decisions [11][18] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the specific capabilities and limitations of different AI models when using them for trading [11][24] Group 4: Future of AI in Trading - The article highlights the growing reliance on AI for stock selection among retail investors, with a significant portion already using AI tools for investment decisions [15] - Despite the potential of AI, the article warns that successful trading still requires a solid understanding of financial principles and market dynamics [15][24] - The emergence of AI-driven investment services from brokerages indicates a trend towards integrating AI into traditional investment practices [18][21]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes a value investing approach, focusing on an owner's mindset and a long-term investment horizon [1] Group 1 - The analyst does not engage in writing sell articles, as they are viewed as short theses, and does not recommend shorting stocks [1] - The analyst has no current stock, option, or derivative positions in any mentioned companies and does not plan to initiate any within the next 72 hours [2] - The article reflects the analyst's personal opinions and is not influenced by any business relationships with the companies mentioned [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significance of reading and the process of refining intuition through knowledge, emphasizing the importance of critical thinking in understanding complex ideas [1] - It highlights a curated book list for the autumn of 2025, focusing on titles that encourage readers to challenge their intuitions and deepen their understanding in various fields such as economics, finance, and humanities [1] Group 2 - The article presents a framework by Liu Dian that analyzes the ongoing technological competition between China and the U.S., focusing on AI as a central theme [2] - It mentions the shift from traditional trading floors to algorithm-driven electronic trading systems, indicating a significant transformation in financial markets [2] - The article references notable books that explore the psychological aspects of money and the impact of high-frequency trading on market dynamics [2][9] Group 3 - The book by Zhou Qiren discusses the challenges faced by businesses and individuals in a rapidly changing global landscape, providing insights into potential growth opportunities [3] - Edward Glaeser’s work on urban economics presents a comprehensive view of urban development, addressing key concepts such as spatial equilibrium and agglomeration economies [5] Group 4 - Liu Dian's book on AI explores the competitive dynamics between the U.S. and China, focusing on the implications of data, computing power, and algorithms [7] - The book "The Art of Money" by Morgan Housel delves into the relationship between money, human behavior, and decision-making, offering insights into financial literacy [15] Group 5 - The book "Breaking the Urban-Rural Dual Structure" by Cai Fang addresses the challenges of rural development in China and proposes policy recommendations for urban-rural integration [17] - The work "The Joy of Possession in 11th Century China" examines historical perspectives on happiness and ownership, reflecting on cultural and literary themes [19]

Core Insights - The article compares Rentokil Initial PLC (RTO) and Thomson Reuters (TRI) to determine which stock is more attractive to value investors [1] - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive earnings estimate revisions and improving earnings outlooks [3] Valuation Metrics - RTO has a forward P/E ratio of 23.19, while TRI has a significantly higher forward P/E of 42.46 [5] - RTO's PEG ratio is 5.16, which is comparable to TRI's PEG ratio of 5.31, indicating similar expected earnings growth rates [5] - RTO's P/B ratio stands at 2.77, whereas TRI's P/B ratio is much higher at 5.84, suggesting RTO is more undervalued relative to its book value [6] Value Grades - Based on the valuation metrics, RTO holds a Value grade of B, while TRI has a Value grade of D, indicating RTO is the superior value option at this time [6]

在一个由科技股、高频交易和市场波动主导的时代，越来越多的人开始质疑：价值投资是否还具有现实意义？ 近期，价值投资领域的知名实践者、海蓝宝石基金（Aquamarine Fund）掌门人盖伊·斯皮尔（Guy Spier）直言不讳地表示："价值投资的黄金时代已经 彻底结束。" 曾经，那些通过"扫街调研"、打电话访谈甚至亲临股东大会才能获得的辛苦洞见，如今只需几秒钟就能被ChatGPT这样的人工智能工具总结、提炼和传 播。 随着信息变得更透明、分析更精准，那些隐藏在企业细节里的"微妙之处"将更容易被发现，也更难形成信息壁垒。更好的分析不再自动等于更高的超额收 益，因为这种洞见，人人都能拥有。 什么是价值投资？ 价值投资是金融界最具持久影响力的投资方法之一，其核心是买入与内在价值相比被低估的股票或资产。 价值投资起源1934年，由哥伦比亚大学教授本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham和）和大卫·多德（David Dodd）提出，并在《聪明的投资者》一书中广为 传播，后来被沃伦·巴菲特等传奇投资人实践发扬。 价值投资的逻辑很简单："如果你知道某样东西的真实价值，就不必为它支付全价。"就像精明的消费者等待商品双十 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unprecedented influx of medium- and long-term funds into the A-share market, driven by significant investment returns from listed insurance companies and the continuous growth of ETF scales [1][2] - The positive trend in the market is supported by policy measures that have enhanced the willingness of medium- and long-term funds to enter the market, including the establishment of long-cycle assessment mechanisms and innovative monetary tools [2][3] - The improvement in market liquidity and pricing capabilities for quality assets is crucial for the development of the technology industry and new productive forces, as emphasized by experts [2] Group 2 - The capital market is focusing on creating a healthier investment environment by improving the quality of listed companies, encouraging dividends and buybacks, and enhancing the attractiveness of equity investments [3] - The market is diversifying investment products suitable for medium- and long-term investors, with an emphasis on developing various ETF products and optimizing the trading environment [3] - Strict enforcement against financial fraud and market manipulation is essential to maintain market integrity and build a trustworthy investment foundation [3] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the promotion of medium- and long-term funds entering the market and enhancing their equity allocation capabilities will remain a key focus for the capital market [4] - There is a call for continued deepening of investment and financing reforms, optimizing fiscal, investment, and regulatory systems to create favorable conditions for long-term capital [4] - Suggestions include developing more refined hedging tools and providing liquidity support during market volatility to facilitate the entry of long-term funds [4]