Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a 5.50% increase in Q2 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by rising prices of industrial and precious metals, which boosted company performance [2] - The precious metals segment reported revenues of 126.58 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.15%, with net profit reaching 6.86 billion yuan, up 41.93% [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion following the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and ongoing global central bank gold purchases, with expectations for continued price strength [3] - The market anticipates sustained gold price increases due to strong expectations for interest rate cuts following signals from Powell in August [3] Group 3: Copper Sector - The copper sector saw revenues of 427.52 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.41%, with net profit at 22.97 billion yuan, up 18.19% [2] - The rebound in copper prices is driven by supply shortages and increased demand from the electrical sector, particularly in China's new energy field [2] Group 4: Aluminum Sector - The aluminum sector reported revenues of 113.71 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.29%, with net profit at 9.60 billion yuan, up 11.40% [2] - The resilience of aluminum prices is supported by strong fundamentals and a decrease in coal prices, leading to increased profit margins [2] Group 5: Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials - The rare earth sector experienced a revenue increase of 3.94% in Q2 2025, with net profit rising by 14.57% [3] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 432,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.56% increase, driven by price hikes and supply chain improvements [3] Group 6: Small Metals - The small metals sector saw a revenue increase of 20.46% in Q2 2025, with net profit rising by 13.99% [4] - Prices for molybdenum, tungsten, antimony, and tin increased by 2.32%, 10.46%, 32.07%, and 1.12% respectively, indicating a positive price trend [4] Group 7: Lithium and Nickel-Cobalt Sectors - The lithium sector faced pressure with revenues of 25 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down 6.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 21% [4] - The nickel-cobalt sector reported revenues of 31.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with net profit at 2.65 billion yuan, up 16% [4] Group 8: New Materials - The new materials sector showed revenue growth of 12.53% in Q2 2025, with net profit increasing by 25.86% [5] - The growth is primarily driven by technological innovation and domestic substitution trends [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout, driven by three catalysts: strengthened interest rate cut expectations, rising risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, and continuous central bank gold purchases [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 1, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) surged by 6.92%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (300139) up 13.74% and China National Gold International (02099) up 11.43% [4] - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) rose by 9.00%, marking its third consecutive increase, with a latest price of 1.47 yuan [4] - Over the past week, the Gold Stock ETF has accumulated a 7.69% increase as of August 29, 2025 [4] Group 2: Fund Performance - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a net value increase of 44.43% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 16.59% since inception [5] - The fund has a historical one-year profit probability of 100.00%, with an average monthly return of 8.13% during up months [5] - As of August 29, 2025, the fund's Sharpe ratio stands at 1.51, ranking it in the top 33% of comparable funds [5] Group 3: Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) account for 66.52% of the index, including major players like Zijin Mining (601899) and Shandong Gold (600547) [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that international gold prices have shown a significant upward trend due to market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of potential interest rate cuts [1][3]. - International gold prices increased by approximately 2.86% over the past week and 5.02% in August, marking the best monthly performance since April [1][3]. - Two main factors driving the rise in gold prices include the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's indication of a potential openness to rate cuts despite inflation risks, and the recent controversy surrounding the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, which has raised doubts about the Fed's independence [3][5]. Group 2 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates once or even twice this year, providing overall support for commodity prices, including gold and silver [5]. - Swiss Bank has raised its gold price target for the first half of 2026 to $3,700 per ounce, while Bank of America predicts it could reach $4,000 per ounce in the same timeframe [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the trend of "de-dollarization" are prompting global investors to seek alternatives to dollar-denominated assets, with gold being viewed as a hedge against dollar depreciation and declining real interest rates [5].

早盘沪金快速上涨，早盘再次突破800元/克，涨幅2%，沪银涨幅超过3.5%，再次破历史新高，接近9800元/千 克。 | 沪银主力 | | | | | | 下载APP添加自选 重要行情优先看 APP | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9719.00 334.00 3.56% | | | | | | 1 交易中 2025-09-01 11:11:10 | | | 今开:9394.00 | | 昨结:9385.00 | | | 最高: 9771.00 | 最低: 9385.00 | | | 均价:9569.30 | | 今结: -- | | | 涨停:10511.00 | 跌停: 8258.00 | | | 昨收:9386.00 | | 日增仓:34488.00 | | | 成交量: 745887.00 | 持仓: 297358.00 | | | 5日 分时 | 日K | 圈K 月K | રસ્ત્રે | 15分 | 30分 60分 | LT === | 打开曲合APP | | 2025/09/01/-11:11 价 9733.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, gold and silver prices rose strongly. The main influencing factors include political pressure weakening the Fed's independence, economic data and consumer confidence index consolidating the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, a weakening dollar index, geopolitical tensions, and market risk - aversion sentiment. Silver outperformed gold due to key mineral tariffs. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, but the rate - cut may not exceed 25bp. [4] - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold long positions or buy on dips. [4] - In the long - term, gold is bullish, while the upside potential of silver should be treated with caution. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情及基本面指标跟踪 (Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking) - **Gold and Silver Price and Gold - Silver Ratio**: - London spot gold rose from $3371.235/oz to $3446.805/oz, a weekly increase of 2.24%. Shanghai gold futures rose from 773.40 yuan/g to 785.12 yuan/g, a 1.52% increase. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased from 84.14 to 83.65, a 0.58% decline. [3] - London spot silver rose from $38.8880/oz to $39.6910/oz, a 2.06% increase. Shanghai silver futures rose from 9192 yuan/kg to 9386 yuan/kg, a 2.11% increase. [3] - **ETF and CFTC Position**: - The gold SPDR - ETF持仓量 increased from 956.77 tons to 977.68 tons, a 2.19% increase. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 1721 contracts to 214311 contracts, a 0.81% increase. [3] - The silver SLV - ETF持仓量 increased from 15289 tons to 15310 tons, a 0.14% increase. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 83 contracts to 46466 contracts, a 0.18% decrease. [3] - **Inventory Data**: - SHFE gold inventory increased from 37.455 tons to 39.624 tons, a 5.79% increase. COMEX gold inventory increased from 1199.47 tons to 1210.73 tons, a 0.94% increase. [3] - SHFE silver inventory increased from 1109 tons to 1196 tons, a 7.83% increase. COMEX silver inventory increased from 15816 tons to 16119 tons, a 1.92% increase. SGE silver inventory decreased from 1287 tons to 1282 tons, a 0.39% decrease. [3] 3.2主要宏观指标跟踪 (Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking) - **Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Spreads**: - The US dollar index rose slightly from 97.7244 to 97.8477, a 0.13% increase. The US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased from 7.1712 to 7.1221, a 0.68% decrease. [3] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased from 3.7069% to 3.6188%, a 2.38% decrease. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased from 4.2615% to 4.2245%, a 0.87% decrease. The US 10 - year real interest rate decreased from 1.85% to 1.82%, a 1.62% decrease. [3] - **Economic Data**: - The US manufacturing and service PMI both declined. The US retail sales data showed mixed performance. The second - quarter GDP growth rate was strong, but the consumer confidence index declined again. Employment cooled significantly, with a rise in the unemployment rate and a decrease in job vacancies. [56][57][58][62] - Inflation showed signs of rising pressure, with increases in core PCE and consumer inflation expectations. [68][70][71][72] - **Eurozone Data**: - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI recovered slightly, while the service PMI declined. The eurozone GDP rebounded from the bottom. The inflation data of the eurozone and the UK showed certain trends. [76][77][78] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: - The Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves for the 9th consecutive month. In July 2025, China's gold reserves reached 73960000 ounces (about 2300.41 tons), a month - on - month increase of 60000 ounces (about 1.86 tons). [85] - In Q1 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 21.4%. Global central banks are expected to maintain net gold purchases. [85]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices continued to rise. Concerns about the Fed's independence boosted risk - aversion sentiment, and the release of the US July PCE data further strengthened the market's interest - rate cut expectation. COMEX gold futures approached the historical high, and international silver prices reached a 14 - year high [3][6][7]. - The US economy remains resilient, but under Trump's pressure, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed support for interest - rate cuts, and the market expects a more than 86% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in September [3][7]. - Market doubts about the Fed's independence, the weakening of the US dollar index, and the interest - rate cut expectation support the rise of precious metal prices. Technically, gold prices face pressure at the previous high, while silver prices are expected to be stronger in the short term [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 785.12 | 11.72 | 1.52 | 136691 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 781.70 | 4.87 | 0.63 | 27326 | 201542 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3516.10 | 98.90 | 2.89 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9386 | 194 | 2.11 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9365 | 54 | 0.58 | 409046 | 3444504 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 40.75 | 1.87 | 4.81 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices rose last week. The US July PCE data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, pushing up gold and silver prices. COMEX gold futures neared the historical high, and silver prices hit a 14 - year high [3][6][7]. - The US economy shows resilience, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is increasing due to Trump's pressure. Many Fed officials support interest - rate cuts, and the market expects an over 86% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in September [3][7]. - Doubts about the Fed's independence, the weakening of the US dollar index, and the interest - rate cut expectation support the rise of precious metal prices. Technically, gold prices face pressure at the previous high, and short - term silver prices are expected to be stronger [3][7]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The annualized revised quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US Q2 real GDP was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the Q2 core PCE price index was 2.5%, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [10]. - The US July PCE price index was 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value; the month - on - month growth was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous 0.3%. The US July core PCE price index rose 2.9% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, in line with expectations [10]. - US personal spending in July 2025 increased 0.5% month - on - month to $20.802 trillion, accelerating from the revised 0.4% in June and in line with market expectations [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000, and the number of continued claims dropped to 1.954 million, both lower than expected [10]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 29, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 977.68 tons, an increase of 20.91 tons from last week; the silver holdings of ishare were 15310.00 tons, an increase of 21.18 tons from last week [11]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: For gold futures on August 26, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 275767, non - commercial short positions were 61456, and non - commercial net long positions were 214311, an increase of 1721 from last week. For silver futures on the same day, non - commercial long positions were 68227, non - commercial short positions were 21761, and non - commercial net long positions were 46466, a decrease of 83 from last week [14].

Group 1 - The price of gold surged, with London gold breaking through the $3430 per ounce mark and reaching $3440 per ounce, reflecting an intraday increase of over 0.7% [1] - COMEX gold also rose above $3500 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 0.9% [3] - The price of physical gold jewelry in China has surpassed 1000 yuan per gram for most brands [5] Group 2 - The recent short-term rise in spot gold prices indicates a temporary increase in risk aversion among investors [10] - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have boosted market optimism, while declining interest rates provide better holding conditions for gold as a non-yielding asset [10]

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a broad decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.20% to 45,544.88 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.15% to 21,455.55 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.64% to 6,460.26 points [1][2]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector in the US saw a significant drop, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeting over 3%. Major companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC ADR, AMD, and Oracle all experienced declines exceeding 3%, while Micron Technology, Applied Materials, ASML ADR, and Intel fell over 2% [3][4]. - Nvidia's market value decreased by $145.6 billion (approximately 1038.2 billion RMB) in one night, with its stock price dropping by 3.3% [4]. AI Chip Companies - Marvell Technology, a US AI custom chip giant, faced severe selling pressure, with its stock price plunging nearly 19% during intraday trading and closing down 18.6% at $62.87, marking a three-month low. The company's market capitalization shrank to $54.2 billion (approximately 38.64 billion RMB) [4]. Chinese Tech Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.5%, with Alibaba surging 12.9%, marking its largest increase since March 2023. The company has reportedly invested over 100 billion RMB in AI infrastructure and product development over the past four quarters [7][8]. - Other Chinese tech stocks like Baidu and JD.com also saw gains, while Netease and Pinduoduo experienced declines [8]. Gold and Commodities - Gold prices increased due to heightened risk aversion, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.2% to $3,516.1 per ounce, accumulating a weekly increase of 2.86% and a monthly rise of 5.2% [10][11]. - Silver futures also saw a rise of 2.64%, closing at $40.75 per ounce, with similar weekly and monthly gains [11]. Economic Indicators - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the core PCE price index accelerating to a 2.9% growth. Consumer confidence has declined, and the trade deficit has widened, leading to a projected slowdown in Q3 GDP growth to 2.2% [13]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen, with probabilities exceeding 80% [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with London gold reaching $3440 per ounce and COMEX gold surpassing $3500 per ounce, reflects heightened market interest and potential investment opportunities in the gold sector due to inflation concerns and anticipated changes in U.S. monetary policy [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - London gold experienced a sharp increase, breaking through the $3430 per ounce mark to reach $3440 per ounce, with an intraday gain exceeding 0.7% [1]. - COMEX gold also rose, reaching $3503.5 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.9% [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, indicating stable consumer spending but rising inflationary pressures [5]. - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rise from 2.8% in June to 2.9%, slightly above market expectations [5]. - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 61.7 in July to 58.2 in August, reflecting consumer anxiety about future economic conditions [5]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions and Market Trends - Analysts from Fidelity International suggest that the gold bull market could persist for many years, driven by factors such as declining interest rates and high inflation [6]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by ownership changes rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics [6]. - JPMorgan forecasts that central bank gold purchases could reach approximately 850 tons by 2025, contributing to a faster-than-expected rise in gold prices [6]. - Bank of America analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, potentially reaching $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, as inflation and potential interest rate cuts create favorable conditions for gold [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its strong rebound this week due to dovish stances from Fed officials, stable rate - cut expectations, and increased market risk - aversion. Despite economic data showing resilience, the dollar was not supported, and the "asymmetry" in economic indicators affected the long - end yield of US Treasuries, boosting the monetary attribute of gold. The market is awaiting the July core PCE data and the next non - farm payroll report. If inflation continues to slow and employment data weakens, the expectation of Fed rate cuts will rise, potentially driving gold prices higher. The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation is a variable, but currently, the willingness of Russia to reach a cease - fire is low. It is recommended to make light - position layouts on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: After the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed officials showed dovish stances, and Trump's actions increased risk - aversion. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.3%, the labor market was resilient, and inflation data showed a slowdown. However, the dollar was not supported, and the precious metals market remained resilient [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The July core PCE data on Friday night will be a key guide. If it shows inflation slowdown, the expectation of Fed rate cuts may rise, and gold prices may break new highs. The non - farm payroll report next Friday is also crucial. A slowdown in employment data will boost rate - cut expectations. The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation may affect gold's safe - haven property, but its impact is currently limited [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to make light - position layouts on dips. The expected price ranges for Shanghai gold 2510 contract are 750 - 800 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver 2510 contract are 9350 - 9450 yuan/kilogram. For London gold, it is 3350 - 3450 dollars/ounce, and for London silver, it is 38.5 - 39.5 dollars/ounce [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: Gold and silver prices rose this week. As of August 29, 2025, COMEX silver was at 39.55 dollars/ounce, up 0.34% month - on - month; Shanghai silver 2510 contract was at 9386 yuan/kilogram, up 2.11% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at 3470 dollars/ounce, up 1.54% month - on - month; Shanghai gold 2510 contract was at 785.12 yuan/gram, up 1.52% month - on - month [9][11]. - **ETF Holdings**: The net holdings of gold and silver ETFs on the foreign market increased this week. As of August 28, 2025, the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15333 tons, up 0.40% month - on - month, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 967.94 tons, up 1.20% month - on - month [13][17]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 19, 2025, COMEX gold speculative net positions decreased, while silver speculative net positions increased. The total and net positions of COMEX gold decreased, while those of COMEX silver increased [19][23]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 19, 2025, CFTC gold long positions decreased week - on - week, and short positions increased [25][29]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold and silver in the Shanghai market weakened this week. As of August 28, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.22 yuan/gram, down 51.9% month - on - month, and the silver basis was - 28 yuan/kilogram, down 247.40% month - on - month [31][33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week, while that of silver decreased, showing a differentiated trend from COMEX inventory. As of August 28, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38764636.49 ounces, up 0.49% month - on - month; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 37455 kilograms, up 3.05% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory was 508778300 ounces, up 0.10% month - on - month; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 1109123 kilograms, down 2.80% month - on - month [35][39]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - **Imports**: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly, while silver ore imports rebounded significantly. The monthly value of silver imports was 252977.88 kilograms, down 7.46% month - on - month, and the monthly value of silver ore imports was 154158134.00 kilograms, up 22.32% month - on - month [41][45]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of July 2025, due to the growth of silver demand in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4690000.00 pieces, and the year - on - year growth rate was 15% [47][51]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The silver supply and demand were in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. The supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, total supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [53][57][61]. 3.3.2 Gold Industry - **Prices**: This week, the gold recycling price and gold jewelry prices rose with the gold price. As of August 28, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 776.40 yuan/gram, up 0.83% week - on - week. The prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Zhou Dafu gold also increased [63][65]. - **Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The pace of central bank gold purchases slowed, and the high gold price led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [67]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: Recently, the expectation of rate cuts has risen significantly, and the dollar has continued to weaken. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year breakeven inflation rate in the US increased slightly this week. In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [73][78][83][88].