Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating robust economic expansion but high uncertainty in the economic outlook [1] Economic Outlook - The labor market will be the primary driver of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions this year, with expectations of two rate cuts in the second half of the year, each by 25 basis points, due to a slightly elevated unemployment rate projected to be around 4.5% by year-end [1][2] - Inflation is expected to remain sticky, with a current rate around 3%, but could potentially drop to near 2% by the end of the year without tariff impacts [3][4] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise slightly in the first quarter, reaching a peak around mid-year before showing signs of improvement, with the labor market remaining somewhat weak but stable enough to support rate cuts [3][2] Inflation Dynamics - Tariff effects are delaying the overall decline in inflation, which is expected to stay high in the first half of the year, with a potential return to lower levels by 2027 [4][3] Federal Reserve Leadership Uncertainty - The upcoming change in Federal Reserve leadership introduces significant uncertainty, as different candidates may adopt varying policy approaches and communication styles, impacting market expectations [5] GDP Growth Projections - The consensus for U.S. GDP growth is around 2% for the year, with attention on the impacts of the "Big and Beautiful" tax plan, which could influence economic forecasts as more data becomes available in the coming months [6][10] Stock Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to perform well this year, driven by a more robust overall economy and improved performance across various sectors, although there are concerns about over-reliance on AI-related investments [7][8] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach a target of 7500 points by year-end, reflecting optimism despite potential risks associated with AI stock performance [9] Sector Opportunities - The consumer discretionary sector is anticipated to regain market attention, alongside a recovery in the housing market and increased consumer spending from middle-income groups [10] Currency Trends - The dollar may continue to show weakness in the short term, but there is potential for a long-term strengthening if the stock market performs well and productivity gains from AI investments materialize [11] Investment Risks and Opportunities - Investors should closely monitor the effects of tax refund seasons and tax measures on household balance sheets, as these will significantly influence economic performance in the near term [12]

据据美国财经媒体Semafor报道，美国总统特朗普和他一直想换掉的美联储主席鲍威尔罕见地在一件事 上达成了一致：美国经济比美国人想象的要好。特朗普在周三感叹："我想大家都没有意识到——经济 正在繁荣发展。"几个小时后，鲍威尔也告诉记者："经济再次以其强劲让我们感到惊讶。"但他也指 出，"消费者调查看起来非常负面，然后是支出情况。经济与消费、支出已经脱节一段时间了。人们仍 在消费，但他们感受到的是负担能力。我们的工作之一是价格稳定，而我们能为感受到压力的人做的最 好的事情就是控制通胀。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the meeting on January 28, 2026, signaling a cautious approach amid stabilizing inflation and labor market conditions [1][3]. Economic: Dual Risk Improvement - The U.S. economy showed strong performance in Q4 2025, supported by resilient consumer spending. Indicators such as the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims suggest stabilization in the labor market [3]. - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points since September 2025, leading to a peak in the unemployment rate, reducing the necessity for further rate cuts [3]. - Despite improvements, risks of "no job expansion" remain due to past over-hiring, slowed net immigration, and general economic uncertainty, although productivity gains support economic stability [3]. Policy: Data Dependency, Holding Steady - The decision to pause rate cuts received broad support, with only two dissenting votes from the minority faction. The current rate is viewed as at the upper end of the neutral range, indicating low necessity for further cuts [5]. - Powell avoided discussing political pressures during the press conference and emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence [5]. Outlook: Caution on Rate Cut Expectations - The Trump administration's push for monetary easing could reignite rate cut expectations, with a significant chance of the policy rate falling below 3% within the year [6]. - The administration is also advocating for lower credit card rates and increased purchases of mortgage-backed securities to reduce mortgage rates, potentially applying more pressure on the Federal Reserve [6]. Strategy: Market Expectations Slightly Dovish - The market reacted mildly to the Fed's decision to maintain rates, initially responding to a hawkish statement but later balancing out due to Powell's more neutral tone [7]. - The U.S. Treasury yields flattened, with the 2-year at 3.57%, 5-year at 3.83%, 10-year at 4.24%, and 30-year at 4.86%. The dollar index rose slightly by 0.13% to 96.344 [7]. - The market sentiment remains stable and cautious, with expectations for short-term Treasury GC repos to maintain a range-bound oscillation [7].

Group 1 - The National Bank of Ukraine lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 15%, marking the first rate cut since March of the previous year [2] - The decision to cut rates comes as inflation has decreased from 15.9% in May to 8% in December, supported by better harvests and stable exchange rates [2] - The European Union has committed to providing €90 billion in loan support to Ukraine, which has alleviated some risks associated with funding uncertainty [2] Group 2 - Ukraine has reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a four-year aid program exceeding $8 billion, pending approval from the IMF board [3] - The approval of the IMF program is contingent upon the Ukrainian government submitting a bill to increase tax burdens on individual entrepreneurs and expand taxation on overseas packages [3] - The central bank predicts that these measures will boost foreign exchange reserves to a record high of $65 billion by 2026 [3] Group 3 - The GDP growth forecast for Ukraine has been revised down from 2% to 1.8% due to extensive damage to the country's energy infrastructure [4]

此外，报告亦建议投资者可考虑与生产和实体经济相关的资产，包括AI人工智能和能源相关基础设 施、科技和医疗保健等具有战略意义的领域。随着各国政府寻求提升本土生产能力并确保供应链安全， 大宗商品、原材料、能源和其他自然资源领域可能会涌现出投资机会，"许多此类资产在通胀时期往往 表现相对较好，可作为对通胀敏感的其他资产(例如实际收益债券)的潜在补充"。 将固定收益配置转向较短期限，亦为另一应对方法。报告指，日益政治化的美联储可能压低短期收益 率，而政策风险与不确定性则推升长期期限溢价，进而推升收益率。若关税措施与美元走弱推升进口成 本，进而引发更广泛的通胀效应，可能为美国收益率上行增添额外动能。 IMCO在报告中提到，自美国总统特朗普去年4月宣布全面加征关税以来，美国国债孳息率虽然上升， 但美元却同步走弱，这种与传统孳息上升等于美元走强逻辑背离的现象，或已显示投资者不再无条件将 美元视作市场动荡时的首选避风港。对部分全球资本而言，美国可能不再被视为一个稳定、可预期的合 作伙伴。不过，IMCO发言人亦补充，相关分析反映的是策略观点，并不必然意味该基金已在货币敞口 上实际作出调整。 加拿大最大的机构投资者之一，安大略省 ...

美国劳工部1月9日发布数据显示，2025年12月，美国新增5万个非农就业岗位，失业率为4.4%，较上月 下降0.2个百分点。白雪认为，最新公布的12月非农新增就业人数虽然继续小幅降温，但并未"失速"， 这在一定程度上缓解了美联储对就业进一步走弱的担忧。 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 2026年1月29日凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5% —3.75%不变。此举意味着，美联储在经历自2025年9月以来的连续三次降息后，本次选择按兵不动。 值得注意的是，在此次参与利率决策投票的12名票委中，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）和 克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）投出反对票，二人主张降息25个基点。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对《中国经营报》记者表示："本次会议声明与鲍威尔讲话均显 示，美联储对当前经济形势更加乐观。这与近期经济、就业数据走势相印证，是本次会议暂停降息的主 要原因。" 记者注意到，本次声明删除了"就业风险增加"等表述，并指出经济形势有所改善，尤其在失业率上升方 面出现企稳迹象。这一变化在一定程度上暗示，美联储决 ...

美联储在会议 声明 中 将经济活动描述 ， 从 "温和扩张"上调至"稳健扩张"，指出失业率出现企稳迹象，但就业增长仍 较 低迷，通胀偏高。 美联储主席鲍威尔在议息会议后的讲话中表示， 加息并非下一步行动的基本假设 。 这 排除 了 加息 的 可能 ， 缓解 了 市场 的相关 担忧。 鲍威尔还指出， 若关税导致的商品通胀（占当前通胀主因）触顶回落，将考虑放松政策。 这说明美联储的 降息条件锚定通胀 。 他没有 明确降息时点 ， 称 未来政策将 "逐次会议决策"，取决于就业、通胀数据演变。 鲍威尔还 强调美联储需远离政治干预，维护决策公信力。 文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 美联储在1月2 9日的议息会议上决定维持基准利率不变，美联储主席鲍威 尔表示，加息并非下一步行动的基本假设， 若关税导致的商品通胀（占 当前通胀主因）触顶回落，将考虑放松政策。 相对鸽派的言论，叠加地 缘风险与宽松预期，推动金价银价再创新高。 北京时间 1月29日凌晨，美联储在结束了为期两天的议息会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率维持在3.50%～3.75%不变，这符合市场的普遍预期，也是美联储自 2025年9月起连续三次降息后首次暂停行动。 美联储决议 ...

新华社纽约1月29日电 综述｜美联储进入观望模式 新华社记者刘亚南 由于美国宏观经济和就业指标有所改善，美国联邦储备委员会在28日结束的货币政策会议上决定维持利 率不变，再次进入观望模式。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会当天发布的公告显示，现有指标显示美国经济前景的不确定性仍在 高位。就业增长持续低迷，失业率有一些企稳迹象，通胀仍处较高水平。从通胀和就业形势看，暂时没 有继续降息的迫切性。当天的决定也与鲍威尔在2025年12月货币政策会议后释放将暂停降息的信号一 致。 鲍威尔在28日举行的记者会上表示，虽然新增就业岗位数量依然处于低位，但失业率已经显现出一些企 稳迹象，通胀则依然在一定程度上处于高位。 高盛集团资产管理部门固定收益和流动性解决方案业务全球共同负责人凯·黑格表示，美联储很可能会 暂停降息，但受通胀回落等因素影响，预计美联储将在今年晚些时候重启降息。 安永会计师事务所全球战略咨询部门首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示，由于劳动力市场基本面逐渐走 软，个人消费支出价格指数涨幅预计在上半年仅略低于3%并在年底降至2.5%，美联储今年首次降息很 可能不会早于6月。 达科预计美联储今年会降息50个基点。他认 ...

| 1月29日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1249.12 | 7.88% | 521258 | 211820 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，1月29日上海黄金现货价格报价1243.01元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1249.12元/克）贴水 6.11元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 美国总统特朗普警告称，一支庞大舰队正迅速驶向伊朗，规模甚至超过此前派往委内瑞拉的舰队。特朗 普表示，伊朗绝不能拥有核武器，并威胁对伊朗的下一次袭击将严重得多。伊朗方面表示，若遭美国逼 迫，将作出"前所未有的"回应。 美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为13.5%，维持利率不变的概率为86.5%。美联储到4月累计降息25个 基点的概率为24.1%，维持利率不变的概率为74%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.0%。 【机构观点】 银河期货：无视鲍威尔"中性偏鹰" 金银强势延续 今晨的美联储会议维持利率不变，和市场预期相符。新闻发布会上，鲍威尔提及经济前景改善，劳动力 和通胀风险 ...

Group 1 - The overall trend in commodities is upward, with the strongest sectors being precious metals and non-ferrous metals [1][13] - The top-performing commodities include gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, leading to a bullish strategy focused on these metals [1][13] - Current global conditions indicate ongoing inflation narratives, speculative capital inflows, and uncertainty regarding the dollar's valuation, contributing to rising prices for gold and silver [1][13] Group 2 - Core trading strategies executed include a bullish stance on fuel, silver, and copper, with specific entry and exit points outlined for each commodity [14][15][17] - The trading results show significant profits across all three commodities, with copper and silver achieving over 30% gains, while fuel saw an 8% increase [21] - The effectiveness of the strategies is attributed to a favorable global macro environment and a proactive approach to managing volatility through dynamic stop-loss adjustments and profit-taking [22] Group 3 - Ongoing positions in fuel, silver, and copper will continue to be managed with dynamic stop-loss strategies, while monitoring for potential price corrections [23] - Precious metals remain in a strong position, warranting continued observation for new entry opportunities [23] - External factors such as the pandemic in India and financial instability in Indonesia are noted as potential influences on commodity prices, particularly cotton and palm oil [23]