欧洲央行管委内格尔：通胀形势平静。 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（7月1日） 美元： 1. 高盛将美联储降息预测提前至9月。 2. 媒体：美国官员寻求缩小贸易协议范围，力争7月9日前达成协议。 3. 美国财长贝森特：未来几周、几个月内将着手寻找美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者。 4. 特朗普："太迟先生"鲍威尔和整个美联储委员会都应该为没有降息感到羞耻。 5. 美国芝加哥6月商业活动指数降至1月以来最低水平；达拉斯联储商业活动指数连续第五个月收缩。 2. 拉加德：欧元区面临通胀波动加剧的问题。 3. 韩国央行表示，第一季度净抛售29.6亿美元，以抑制韩元贬值，上一季度净抛售了37.6亿美元。 4. 韩国官员：与美国的贸易谈判将不得不在7月8日之后继续进行，首尔将寻求延长时间。有关外汇和国 防开支的问题将分别讨论。 5. 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：由于不确定性，我们必须保留所有利率选择。 6. 欧洲央行管委西姆库斯：不知道是否能在九月之前掌握所有所需的信息。任何利率变动都更有可能在 年底前发生。 6. 美联储博斯蒂克：预计今年将降息一次，2026年将降息三次；没有必要通过加息来应对通胀。 7. 美联储古尔斯比：预计不会出现1970年代式的滞胀情况。 ...

欧洲央行管委、德国央行行长Nagel：通胀形势处于"静水区"。 货币政策已处于中性区间。 欧洲央行不应对通胀掉以轻心。 不确定性要求采取逐次会议审慎决策的策略。 ...

欧洲央行管委西姆库斯：通胀低于预期的风险大于高于预期的风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is becoming a central battleground in U.S. politics and economics, influenced by President Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts and the complexities of global economic uncertainty and tariff policies [1][3]. Group 1: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - President Trump has publicly called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to between 0.5% and 1.75%, criticizing the current leadership for being slow and costing the U.S. economy "hundreds of billions" [3]. - The current policy rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.5%, significantly higher than Trump's target, with Fed officials emphasizing that policy decisions should be data-driven [4][5]. - The Fed's cautious stance is attributed to persistent inflation risks and the need to maintain its independence from political pressures [5]. Group 2: Transition Planning for Fed Leadership - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is preparing for the transition of the Fed chair position after Powell's term ends in May 2026, aiming for a smooth nomination process in late 2025 [6][8]. - Potential candidates for the Fed chair include current Fed Governor Waller, who is familiar with monetary policy frameworks [7]. - The government plans to follow traditional procedures for the nomination process, contrasting with Trump's high-profile pressure tactics [8]. Group 3: Economic Data as Decision-Making Factors - Key economic data from July to August will be critical for the Fed's decision-making, including employment reports and inflation data [10]. - If employment data indicates a cooling labor market, it may open the door for a rate cut in September [10]. - The upcoming tariff policy decisions will also significantly impact inflation expectations and the Fed's approach [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing conflict over interest rates has evolved into a broader debate about the Fed's independence, with potential implications for economic stability [11]. - If summer data supports a rate cut, tensions may ease; however, persistent inflation could exacerbate conflicts between the White House and the Fed, affecting market stability [11]. - Market participants are advised to closely monitor key economic data and Fed officials' statements for signals of policy shifts [11].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-07-01 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 央行主管媒体《金融时报》发文称"适度宽松"的主基调未变 观点分享： 此前，央行二季度例会删去了"择机降准降息"措辞，引发市场关注。《金融时报》发 文称，在货币政策取向方面，二季度例会与一季度相同。业内专家认为，尽管上半年经济运 行稳中向好，但在外部环境仍具挑战性，国内有效需求不足，房地产市场仍处调整阶段的背 景下，货币政策"适度宽松"的主基调未发生任何变化。相较于一季度例会提出"择机降准 降息"，本次例会则提出"根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，灵活把握政策实 施的力度和节奏"。措辞虽有调整，但中国人民银行将继续坚持支持性的货币政策立场。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 国债期货 | ★★★★ | 国债期货: 央行货币政策例会引发债市回调，未来仍看震荡。上周末央行发布 2025 年二季度 货币政策委员会例会通稿。其中对于择机降准降息的删除使得市场降低了三季度继续降准降 息的预期，给周一的债市带来了扰动。同时，通稿折射出央行 ...

文字早评 2025/07/01 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.59%，创指+1.35%，科创 50+1.54%，北证 50+0.52%，上证 50+0.16%，沪深 300+0.37%， 中证 500+0.88%，中证 1000+1.26%，中证 2000+1.54%，万得微盘+1.67%。两市合计成交 15176 亿，较上 一日-581 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、在岸人民币兑美元收盘报 7.1656，较上一交易日上涨 34 点，创 2024 年 11 月 8 日以来新高。在岸人 民币兑美元 6 月升值 0.41%，二季度累计升值 1.2%，上半年累升 1.86%。 2、《深圳证券交易所股票发行上市审核业务指引第 8 号——轻资产、高研发投入认定标准》发布。 3、中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.7，预期 49.7，前值 49.5；非制造业 PMI 为 50.5，预期 50.5，前值 50.3；综合 PMI 为 50.7，前值 50.4。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.75%/-1.09%/-1.28%/-2.04%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.89%/- ...

Core Insights - The Trump administration's implementation of a reciprocal tariff policy resulted in additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% on most imported goods, which was later adjusted to a 10% rate due to market volatility [1][2] - The tariff policy led to a significant increase in tariff revenue, with April's revenue reaching $17.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 130%, and May's revenue surpassing $24 billion, a 270% increase, setting historical records [2] - Despite the increase in tariffs, inflation rates remained stable, with the core CPI showing a consistent year-on-year increase of around 2.8% since March, and the overall CPI rising only 2.4% in May [4] Tariff Revenue Analysis - Tariff revenue for June was projected to exceed $28 billion, indicating a continuous record-breaking trend over three months [2] - The 10% tariff rate appears to balance corporate profits while maintaining product supply in the U.S. market, thus enhancing tariff revenue [2] Inflation and Price Stability - The anticipated inflation surge did not materialize, with May's major goods showing only a 0.3% year-on-year price increase, and some goods, like televisions and smartphones, experiencing price declines of 9.8% and 14.3%, respectively [4][6] - The automotive sector, despite facing a 25% tariff, saw a minimal price increase of only 0.4% [4] Future Implications - U.S. importers have been stockpiling low-tariff goods prior to the policy implementation, which has temporarily masked the impact of the tariff increases on prices [6] - The delayed effect of price transmission through the supply chain suggests that the full impact of tariffs may not be felt until later, with July being a critical month [6] - Importers are currently absorbing some of the tariff costs, but this situation is unsustainable in the long term, especially if tariffs are further increased [6] - Predictions indicate that the average effective tariff rate may rise to 15% in the coming months, with core CPI expected to increase to between 3% and 3.5% by the end of 2025, suggesting potential future price pressures on consumers [6]

尽管高盛认可当前美国劳动力市场整体仍处于 "健康" 状态，但也发出预警。他们指出，当下求职者面临的竞争压力显著增大，而且残余季节性因素的影 响，以及移民政策的变动，都给近期的就业数据带来了下行风险。 KVB plus发现在全球金融市场密切关注美联储货币政策走向之际，国际投行高盛突然抛出重磅预测，大幅调整对美联储降息时间的判断，引发市场广泛关 注。高盛一改此前预期，明确表示美联储将提前三个月，于今年 9 月启动降息周期，而非原先预计的 12 月。这一调整背后，高盛经济研究团队给出了关键 依据，他们认为关税对通胀产生的实际影响 "比预期稍弱"。 以首席经济学家简・哈祖斯 (Jan Hatzius) 为首的高盛研究团队，在发布的报告中详细阐述了观点。他们指出，尽管经济形势仍存在诸多不确定性，但综合多 方面因素判断，9 月降息的概率已略高于 50%。具体而言，关税政策未达预期效果、通缩对冲力度不断加大、劳动力市场出现实质性疲软，或是因月度经济 数据波动引发市场恐慌等情况，都有可能促使美联储在 9 月做出降息决策。报告还着重强调，高盛推测美联储高层也持有相同观点，即关税对物价的影响仅 为一次性，不会形成持续性的通胀压力 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德6月30日在葡萄牙辛特拉参加欧洲央行中央银行论坛时表示，欧洲央行将在"不确定 时期继续充当稳定之锚"。 本次论坛将从6月30日持续至7月2日，主题为"适应变化：宏观经济转型与政策应对"。除欧盟各国央行 行长外，美联储主席鲍威尔、英国央行行长贝利、日本央行行长植田和男和韩国央行行长李昌镛也参加 了论坛，并将于1日和拉加德一起参加小组讨论。 在本次论坛开始前的一次播客采访中，欧洲央行首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩就强调称，这场有五家央行 行长参与的小组讨论将是整个论坛的亮点，或就全球贸易紧张和中东局势如何影响通胀和增长前景发表 看法。 据卢萨社报道，拉加德在当日开幕的论坛上发布了欧洲央行最新货币政策战略评估，决定维持2%的通 胀目标，并认为"调和消费者物价指数（IHPC）仍是适当的价格衡量指标"。不过，她表示有必要将业 主自住房的居住成本纳入通胀统计，尽管欧洲统计局目前尚未这样做，但各国央行行长们已经将其纳入 考量。 根据战略评估，欧洲央行认为"在应对通胀率长期大幅偏离目标的情况下，有必要采取适当有力或持续 的货币政策措施。"拉加德指出，结构性变化表明，未来环境将保持不确定性并更具波动性。 欧洲央行中 ...