资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 18% 24% 30% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,890.45 | 0.36 | | 深证成指 | | 13,140.21 | 0.66 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,568.18 | 0.34 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,425.80 | 0.35 | | 中证 | 500 | 7,169.55 | 0.97 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 | 2000 | 7,801.23 | 0.58 | | 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研 ...

12月25日，深圳大普微电子股份有限公司（下称"大普微"）将迎来创业板IPO上会审核的关键节点。作为创业板首家申报的未盈利企业，此次上会不仅决 定着这家国产存储企业的资本命运，更被视作A股资本市场对优质未盈利科技企业包容度的"试金石"。若审议通过，大普微将正式摘得"创业板未盈利上 市第一股"的头衔，为后续同类企业开辟上市路径；而其提出的"2026年最早扭亏为盈"的目标，更让这场资本闯关充满了看点与争议。 2024年行业整体增速达187.9%，但大普微营收增速仅85.3%，市场份额从6.4%滑落至3.0%，而2026年长江存储、英韧科技等头部厂商的扩产与技术迭代， 将进一步挤压市场空间，其能否完成份额提升目标存疑。 大普微的闯关无论成败，都将为未盈利科技企业的上市探索提供宝贵经验。若成功过会，将验证创业板对优质未盈利创新企业的包容度，引导更多资本流 向核心技术领域，助力国产替代与科技突破；若未能通过，也将为后续企业敲响警钟，明确监管层在盈利预期合理性、持续经营能力等方面的审核底线。 回溯创业板制度演进脉络，自注册制改革落地之初，监管层便为优质未盈利创新企业预留了上市空间，直至2025年6月相关上市标准正式"激活 ...

华西证券发布研究报告称，复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需满足以下条件：合理的估值水 平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产业事件催化或外部风险缓释 等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易逆转担忧缓解，后续人民币 汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市亦可以期待。近期股票型 ETF再度大规模净申购，多只宽基ETF成交放量，指向增量资金倾向于逢低布局。行业配置上，建议关 注：1)受益产业政策支持的成长方向，如国产替代、机器人、航空航天、创新药、储能等;2)受益于"反 内卷"政策的周期方向，如化工、能源金属、资源品等;3)促消费政策的深化或带来消费板块的阶段性催 化机会。 ...

一、领亿来集团的万亿市值目标与战略布局 领亿来集团作为中国白兰地产业的龙头企业，明确提出"剑指万亿市值"的长期战略目标，计划通过文化传承、工艺创新、产业整合三大核心路径，推动中国 白兰地从"区域特色产品"升级为"全球烈酒标杆"，并在2030年前实现市值突破。这一目标的提出，既是对中国白兰地产业升级的信心体现，也是对"21世纪 是白兰地的时代"这一行业判断的实践回应。 二、"21世纪是白兰地的时代"的行业逻辑 "21世纪是白兰地的时代"并非空穴来风，而是基于消费升级、国产替代、文化复兴三大核心驱动力的必然结论： 1. 消费升级：中高端酒类的新增长极 随着中国经济持续发展，居民可支配收入提升，消费观念从"量的满足"转向"质的追求"。白兰地作为"健康型烈酒"（无添加糖、低酒精度），契合了当代消 费者对"品质生活"的需求。据2025年中国白兰地行业报告显示，高端白兰地（VSOP及以上）市场份额从2020年的35%提升至2024年的58%，年增长率达 12%，远超行业平均水平。领亿来集团的"顶邑XXO"等产品，凭借"中国风土+国际工艺"的组合，已成为高端白兰地市场的"黑马"，2024年销量同比增长 40%。 2. 国产 ...

这是在中国特殊国情下所产生的特殊现象级事件，这样的故事，放在任何一个除中国之外的国家，都 难以成立，因为在这场国产自主的叙事中，真正的商业化与市场能力的色彩并未被真正凸显。 出品｜虎嗅科技组 作者｜陈伊凡 编辑｜苗正卿 头图｜视觉中国 最近在和半导体领域的投资人聊天时，大家聊的最多的，便是摩尔、沐曦的上市。 12月17日，沐曦股份登陆科创板，盘中涨幅一度飙至700%，总市值冲破3300亿元；另一家国产GPU 公司摩尔线程也在上市首日创下的"涨幅425%首秀"；随后天数智芯、壁仞科技，几乎是前后脚通过 港交所聆讯，而燧原科技也在A股排队候场。 短短半月内，五家明星企业轮番登台，一级市场也出现了，投了"摩尔们"和没投"摩尔们"的投资机 构。资本狂飙到让人恍惚：国产GPU到底是个产业故事，还是一个情绪故事？ 英伟达凭借其长期以来积累的软硬件一体生态，占据了全球通用GPU90%以上的份额，国外的AI芯 片初创公司选择的路线基本以围绕英伟达，进行推理和边缘芯片解决方案为主。边缘芯片解决方案上 Blaize的创始人就曾问过我，他很好奇，中国的通用GPU公司如何突破英伟达的生态？这个疑问也凸 显了国产GPU的一个关键问题。 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 医疗耗材行业周报 湖南牵头 29 省高频电刀集采启动 相关研究： | 1. 《第五批耗材国采即将落地执 | | | --- | --- | | 行》 | 2025.02.18 | | 2.《年报披露密集期，耗材板块关 | | | 注创新与业绩修复》 | 2025.04.01 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -2 -9 -9 绝对收益 -1 -7 7 -50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 沪深300 医疗耗材 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：聂孟依 证书编号：S0500524040001 Tel：(8621) 50299667 Email：nmy06967@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路 88 号 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 核心要点： ❑ 医疗耗材板块上周上涨 2.29% 根据 wind，上周，医药生物报收 8269.04 点，下跌 0.14%，涨幅排名位列 申万一级行业第 22 位，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.14 个百分点；医疗服务报收 637 ...

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage strategy analysts remain optimistic about the spring market rally, awaiting an effective signal to initiate the movement [1] Group 1: Market Signals and Economic Indicators - Analysts from Xingzheng Strategy highlight that the liquidity expectations are shifting positively due to recent overseas events and a supportive domestic policy environment, indicating a transition from cautious behavior to actively seeking opportunities [1] - Key signals to watch for the potential market rally include the possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions at the end of the year and early next year, with observation windows in early next week and January [1][2] - Important economic indicators such as PPI, PMI, M1, social financing, and annual reports from listed companies are expected to uplift the basic economic outlook [1][2] Group 2: Investment Trends and Sector Focus - The Guangfa Strategy team anticipates that 2026 will resemble an enhanced version of 2025, with continued support from insurance capital and regulation, alongside an acceleration in the migration of deposits from residents, particularly among high-net-worth individuals [1][2] - The trend of high-net-worth residents moving their deposits has already begun to accelerate, with new private equity fund registrations reaching 386 billion yuan from January to October 2025, with monthly registration sizes nearing levels seen in 2021 [1][2] - The Xinda Strategy team emphasizes the increasing elasticity of non-bank financial sectors, suggesting a potential rotation of market focus from banks to non-bank financials, with insurance valuations appearing more attractive [1][3] Group 3: Sectoral Opportunities and Predictions - Analysts suggest that sectors benefiting from policy support, such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and consumer services, are likely to see significant growth, with a projected net profit growth rate exceeding 30% in 2026 [2] - The market is expected to experience structural opportunities driven by policy guidance and industrial momentum, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The spring market rally is anticipated to be influenced by the performance of cyclical sectors, with a focus on commodities and consumer sectors benefiting from increased consumption and fiscal stimulus [3]

Core Insights - The company has successfully delivered over 800 CMP equipment units, covering major product lines such as logic, 3D NAND storage, and DRAM storage, while also entering advanced sectors like large silicon wafers and third-generation semiconductors [1] - The recognition of the company's technology, product maturity, and market adaptability has strengthened its position as a leading domestic CMP equipment provider [1] Group 1 - The company's CMP equipment has achieved full coverage and mass application in domestic mainstream integrated circuit manufacturing lines, enhancing its market recognition and industry influence [1] - The company believes that breakthroughs in domestic AI technology will drive opportunities in advanced packaging and chip stacking technologies, expanding the market growth potential [2] - The synergy between CMP equipment and other products like thinning, cutting, and edge grinding equipment will provide comprehensive solutions for advanced packaging and chip stacking [2] Group 2 - The company plans to continue focusing on independent innovation and increasing R&D investment, targeting advancements in process technology and product performance [2] - The company reported a revenue of 3.194 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.28%, and a net profit of 791 million yuan, up 9.81% year-on-year [3] - New product breakthroughs are expected by Q3 2025, including the first 12-inch low-temperature ion implanter and the mass shipment of 12-inch wafer edge trimming equipment [3]

Market Review - Global stock indices mostly declined this week, with the Korean Composite Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Nikkei 225 leading the losses. A-shares saw a decrease in trading volume, with the average daily turnover of the Wind All A Index falling to approximately 1.76 trillion yuan. Market sentiment has turned cautious, with the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Index leading the declines, while funds rotated into dividend sectors. In terms of styles, the financial and consumer sectors rose, while growth styles fell, with the electronics and power equipment indices dropping over 3%. In the commodity market, COMEX silver surged by 8.7%, and copper and aluminum prices fluctuated upward, while coking coal rebounded from the bottom. In the foreign exchange market, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciated against the dollar, while the renminbi continued to appreciate against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "Spring Rally" is accumulating positive factors, with a focus on buying on dips. Historically, the initiation of the A-share "Spring Rally" typically requires reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite, such as domestic policies, industrial events, or external risk alleviation. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike have been implemented, easing concerns about the reversal of arbitrage trades. The subsequent appreciation of the renminbi is expected to attract foreign capital, and the "good start" of insurance premium income at the beginning of the year is also anticipated to bring incremental insurance funds into the market. Recently, stock ETFs have seen large-scale net subscriptions, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, indicating that incremental funds are inclined to buy on dips [2][5]. Historical Review - A review of history shows that, except for 2021 and 2022, the A-share market has often exhibited a "Spring Rally" calendar effect over the past decade. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the A-share market is in a "vacuum period" for economic data and corporate earnings reports, making it easier for the market to engage in thematic investments based on policy expectations and industrial trends. Since 2016, there have been 8 instances of "Spring Rally" in the A-share market. The timing of these rallies typically starts between December and January and lasts for 20 to 60 trading days [3][4]. Necessary Conditions for "Spring Rally" - The initiation of the "Spring Rally" requires several necessary conditions: 1) A reasonable market valuation range, as the elasticity of the rally is highly correlated with market valuation levels. In the years with the largest index gains during the past decade's Spring Rallies, the market had generally undergone sufficient adjustments beforehand. For instance, at the beginning of 2016, the "circuit breaker" triggered a liquidity feedback shock, leading to a sharp decline in major A-share indices; at the beginning of 2019, after previous declines, the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was only 10 times; and in early February 2024, liquidity shocks from products like Xueqiu and quantitative funds brought the CSI 300 Index's price-to-earnings ratio back to around 10 times [4]. 2) A sustained loose liquidity environment with inflows of incremental funds. For example, in early 2018, the central bank implemented targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and in early 2019 and 2020, the central bank conducted comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain macro liquidity. In early 2023, there was a significant inflow of foreign capital, and in early 2025, regulatory authorities are expected to promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market [4]. 3) Domestic policies, industrial event catalysts, or external risk alleviation that drive risk appetite upward. For example, in early 2016, supply-side reforms; in early 2019, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations; in January 2020, the signing of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the U.S.; at the end of 2022, the optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the "three arrows" for real estate; in February 2024, an unexpected reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR); and in early 2025, catalysts from trends in industries like DeepSeek and robotics [4][5]. Accumulating Positive Conditions - Positive conditions for the "Spring Rally" are accumulating, with a focus on buying on dips: 1) In terms of overseas liquidity, the dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been implemented, leading to a weaker yen against the dollar and easing pressures from arbitrage trades. The Federal Reserve's expected dovish rate cuts in December are closely tied to the leadership transition, with the overall market expectation for the Fed's policy direction remaining loose [5]. 2) Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for "continuing to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy," indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [5]. 3) On the micro liquidity front, this week saw large-scale net subscriptions for stock ETFs, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, boosting market sentiment. The anticipated inflow of foreign capital driven by the appreciation of the renminbi and the incremental insurance funds from the "good start" of premium income at the beginning of the year can also be expected [5]. 4) In terms of valuation, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index is 14 times, which is at the 76th percentile since 2010, below the historical median plus one standard deviation [5]. 5) From a policy perspective, the Central Economic Work Conference has laid a positive foundation, with 2026 marking the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and incremental policies in areas such as technological innovation, anti-involution, and expanding domestic demand are expected to continue to be introduced [5]. Industry Allocation Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on: 1) Growth directions benefiting from industrial policy support, such as domestic substitution, robotics, aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage [5]. 2) Cyclical directions benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as chemicals, energy metals, and resource products [5]. 3) The deepening of consumption-promoting policies may bring short-term catalytic opportunities for the consumer sector [5].

新一轮 AI 算力建设驱动高速光模块需求高增。预计 26 年全球云厂 商资本开支将延续上行通道，叠加 AI 集群扩容、新一代算力平台放 量，以及 1.6T/CPO 等技术落地，共同构成核心驱动力。产业呈现双 路径演进：其一，Scale-out 通过叶脊架构横向扩展，光模块需求以 "乘数效应"放大；其二，Scale-up 通过突破铜缆带宽与距离限制， 推动高端光模块在 GPU 机柜互联与内存池化等应用中加速渗透。 光模块向高端化加速驱动价值跃升，新技术指明行业主线： 2025 年 12 月 21 日 通信 光通信系列报告一：AI 需求与产品高 端化，共驱光模块市场增长新周期 AI 算力驱动光模块全链上行，国产替代构筑产业新生态： AI 算力需求持续扩张，光模块产业景气度延续上行，并为产业链各 环节带来机遇。（1）需求侧：高规格产品进入量产放量期。全球数通 市场成为行业核心驱动力，800G 筑底，1.6T 突破，带来新一轮产品 周期。（2）价值链：上游核心器件价值占比提升，产业价值进一步向 光芯片等部件集中。（3）国产替代：中国在封装环节全球领先，但破 局高端光/电芯片的海外垄断，是实现自主可控的核心卡点。 产业 ...