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提振消费,财政金融这样发力
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-03-30 22:00
Group 1 - The core focus of macroeconomic policy this year is to boost consumption, with the recent release of the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" outlining clear directions for fiscal and financial support policies [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance policy resource coordination, implementing measures to increase quality supply and improve the consumption environment, including the allocation of 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the trade-in of consumer goods [1] - The plan also includes support for new consumption models in key cities, the development of international consumption centers, and the strengthening of fiscal and financial policy linkages to promote stable growth in the consumption market [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for coordination between financial, fiscal, and industrial policies to meet diverse funding needs, proposing measures such as maintaining ample liquidity through various monetary policy tools [2] - Specific financial support will be directed towards key consumption sectors like culture, tourism, elderly care, and sports, with a focus on optimizing financial products to cater to differentiated consumer demands [2] - Experts suggest that increasing residents' income is crucial for boosting consumption, with the action plan proposing measures to stabilize the stock market and enhance long-term market returns to improve consumer capacity and willingness [2]
专访中泰国际李迅雷:消费补贴要加大力度、考虑长远,对中低收入人口精准施策
21世纪经济报道· 2025-03-27 12:25
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumer confidence and increasing the income of low- to middle-income individuals as key strategies for stimulating domestic consumption and economic growth in China [1][5]. Group 1: Consumption Growth and Economic Impact - In the first two months of this year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 837.31 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4%, which is an acceleration of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [6][7]. - The consumption structure has shown significant support from categories such as sports and entertainment products, with double-digit growth in home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment, while automotive consumption has slightly declined [6][7]. - The government has introduced a series of policies aimed at boosting consumption, and it is believed that consumption growth could exceed 5% this year, which is crucial for achieving the GDP growth target [7]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Subsidies - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has been effective, with last year's subsidies of 150 billion yuan leading to 1 trillion yuan in corresponding consumption, particularly benefiting home appliances, electric vehicles, and mobile phones [8][9]. - This year, the subsidy scale for the "old-for-new" policy has increased to 300 billion yuan, which could potentially drive 2 trillion yuan in consumption, contributing approximately 4 percentage points to overall consumption growth [8][9]. - There is a need to differentiate between policy-driven consumption increases and inherent consumer demand, as the current "old-for-new" policy primarily benefits discretionary spending rather than essential goods [9]. Group 3: Income Growth and Structural Reforms - Increasing residents' income is essential for boosting consumption, with suggestions for enhancing social security measures and optimizing the wage system in state-owned enterprises [12][16]. - The article highlights the importance of targeted subsidies for low-income populations, as rural consumption is growing faster than urban consumption, indicating significant potential in rural markets [15][18]. - The government is encouraged to simplify unemployment insurance processes and increase support for unemployed individuals to enhance their purchasing power [17]. Group 4: Service Consumption and Urbanization - Service consumption in China has been growing faster than physical goods consumption, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and preferences [19]. - Urbanization policies that encourage population movement to larger cities could further stimulate service consumption, as larger urban areas benefit from economies of scale [19].
李迅雷专栏 | 促消费2025:社零不能再低于GDP增速
中泰证券资管· 2025-03-26 10:27
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption to stabilize economic growth, highlighting the need for policies that enhance both consumption capacity and willingness [10][19]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Consumption - Consumption is influenced by two main factors: consumption capacity and consumption willingness. Consumption capacity is primarily affected by income, assets, and debt, while consumption willingness is influenced by economic expectations, social security systems, and available time for consumption [7][10]. - The current debt pressure on residents is significant, with the ratio of debt repayment to disposable income at 12.4% in Q3 2024, higher than in some developed economies [7]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" outlines a comprehensive approach to enhance consumption through income increases, reduced burdens, high-quality supply, and improved consumption environments, with 30 key tasks across eight areas [10][19]. - The government plans to increase public consumption significantly, as a 1% increase in public consumption can lead to a 0.4% rise in private consumption over the long term [13][19]. Group 3: Targeted Support for Specific Groups - The plan focuses on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups, with measures including employment support and minimum wage adjustments [11][20]. - There is a specific emphasis on providing living allowances for recent graduates who have not yet found employment, recognizing their high marginal propensity to consume [21]. Group 4: Consumption Trends and Projections - In 2024, the growth rate of social retail sales is projected to be only 3.5%, with expectations to increase to over 5% due to enhanced fiscal spending [3][19]. - China's final consumption expenditure accounted for 55.6% of GDP in 2023, which is significantly lower than the global average, indicating substantial room for growth [6][19]. Group 5: Financial Support Mechanisms - The plan introduces fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans, marking a shift in focus from corporate to individual support, which could stimulate consumer spending [16][22]. - The government aims to balance "old-for-new" policies with cash subsidies for specific groups to ensure equitable access to consumption incentives [19][20].
2025博鳌亚洲论坛|如何扫除经济障碍
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-03-25 15:48
2025博鳌亚洲论坛|如何扫除经济障碍 3月25日—28日,博鳌亚洲论坛2025年年会在海南博鳌举行。本届年会以"在世界变局中共创亚洲未来"为主题,聚焦发展,促进对话。 "中国在对外开放进程中,持续吸引大量外资,制造业领域并非'闭门造车',而是积极拥抱全球资本与技术""中国经济经历了风风雨雨,目前已经重新步入了 稳定健康可持续发展的轨道,中国经济的稳定回升态势已经确立,是不可逆的"……3月25日,在以"中国改革和发展的前瞻"为主题的高端对话上,重庆市原 市长黄奇帆以及国家发改委原副主任、中国经济体制改革研究会会长彭森就中国经济发展现状展开讨论。 在全球格局深度调整的历史关头,世界正经历百年未有之大变局,中国正经历着从高速增长向高质量发展的关键转型。这一大背景下,中国经济发展如何扫 清障碍,在对话中,黄奇帆、彭森也给出了答案。 中国经济稳定回升态势不可逆 在3月上旬举办的全国两会上,国务院总理李强在政府工作报告中对2024年的经济工作做了系统全面的总结,并对2025年的经济发展做了全面部署,确立了 国内生产总值增长5%左右的预期目标。 围绕政府工作报告提出的经济发展任务,彭森指出,近两年中国经济恢复经历了波浪式 ...
如何涨薪增收促消费?学者建言:中央财政出资扩大民生支出
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-03-25 11:19
如何涨薪增收促消费?学者建言:中央财政出资扩大民 生支出 3月23日—24日,中国发展高层论坛2025年年会举行,北京钓鱼台国宾馆在浓浓春意中,迎来了近千位中外贵宾。 这些来自政府机构、跨国企业、央企民企、学界的"大佬"级人物,围绕"全面释放发展动能,共促全球经济稳定增 长"的话题展开研讨,十余场研讨会几乎场场爆满、座无虚席。 谈及全球经济,当前贸易保护主义、单边主义、地缘政治的风险给全世界带来了诸多不确定性。这样的大背景 下,中国经济又该如何稳增长、激活发展新动能?对此,多位学者表示,当前包括提振消费在内的经济增量政策 还不足以刺激中国的总需求,中国需要采取大胆的行动推动经济发展,而且要注重惠民生,以人为本的经济发展 模式才可持续。 研讨会现场。 提振消费不是应急之策 提振消费作为我国经济今年的"头号任务",被专家们频频提及。南都记者关注到,此次中国发展高层论坛2025年 年会还专门设置了一场"提振消费与扩大内需"的专题研讨会。 据了解,中国当前面临需求不足、尤其是消费不足的问题。与国际比较看,中国居民实际最终消费占GDP比重较 全球平均水平低约20个百分点。用购买力平价口径,中国与OECD国家(由38个国 ...
彭森:一定要提振消费,为消费正名,中国经济要走消费繁荣的道路
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-03-25 11:19
Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on boosting consumption is crucial for China's economic prosperity, as the country needs to shift towards a consumption-driven growth model [5][6]. Economic Situation - China's economy has stabilized and is on a sustainable growth path, with a recovery trend that is irreversible [5]. - Achieving the GDP doubling target set for 2035 under the "14th Five-Year Plan" will require significant effort [5]. - Reform and opening-up remain key to China's future and high-quality development, with a focus on market-oriented reforms [5]. Challenges - The primary challenge facing China's economy is insufficient domestic demand, which is largely due to weak consumer spending [6]. - Traditional views favoring production over consumption have led to policies and systems that are not conducive to consumer spending, resulting in suppressed consumption [6]. Consumption Comparison - Current consumption rates in China are significantly lower than those in developed countries, with China's overall consumption rate at 55% compared to around 80% in the U.S. [6]. - The final consumption rate in China is only 38%, while it is generally around 60% in Western countries, indicating a 25 percentage point gap [6].
【央广时评·提振消费④】协调秩序与温度 优化消费环境需“软硬”兼施
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-03-25 09:39
【央广时评·提振消费④】协调秩序与温度 优化消费环境需"软硬"兼施 快递员分拣快递 此外,《方案》关于保障劳动者休息休假权益的内容也备受关注。"严格落实带薪年休假制度""鼓励带薪年休假与小长假连休,实现弹性错峰休假"等措 施,将让广大劳动者有更足底气休假、更多时间享受生活,进而在文旅、休闲、餐饮等消费领域"激荡一池春水"。 市场秩序是消费信心的根本保障,消费设施的完善程度则直接影响消费体验。只有当市场秩序与服务温度二者相协调时,才能真正激活人们的消费潜 能。优化消费环境不仅是提振消费的短期刺激手段,更是出于高质量发展的长远思考。相信未来随着消费环境的不断优化,必将更好促进供需之间的双向奔 赴和循环畅通,释放更加充足的消费潜力,为我国经济发展注入澎湃内生动力。(央广网特约评论员 毛同辉) 消费既是经济增长的重要引擎,也是百姓美好生活需要的直接体现。近日,中办、国办印发《提振消费专项行动方案》(以下简称《方案》)将消费环 境改善提升行动作为提振消费信心的重要举措纳入其中。 在消费过程中,包括供给质量、市场秩序、维权效能、物流配送等在内的消费环境,对消费者的消费意愿有着直接影响。为改善提升消费环境,《方 案》既强调 ...
中发高论坛聚焦提振消费:释放内需潜力激发经济活力
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-03-24 14:27
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government prioritizes boosting consumption as a key strategy for economic growth, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance consumer spending and address underlying issues in the economy [1][2][7]. Group 1: Current Economic Context - China's consumption scale is significant, but its proportion in the national economy is relatively low, with a gap of about 20 percentage points compared to developed countries [2]. - The current economic challenges stem from a transition away from investment and export-driven growth towards innovation and consumption-driven growth [1][6]. Group 2: Structural Issues in Consumption - The consumption shortfall is identified as a structural deviation rather than a mere average deficiency, influenced by factors such as low public service levels, urbanization quality, and income distribution disparities [2][3]. - The decline in real estate and infrastructure growth has revealed underlying structural issues in consumption, particularly in service sectors like education, healthcare, and social security [3][6]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - A comprehensive approach is necessary to boost consumption, focusing on long-term structural reforms rather than short-term stimulus measures [6][7]. - Recommendations include increasing rural residents' pensions to enhance their consumption capacity, which could significantly impact GDP growth [8]. Group 4: Consumption Trends and Future Outlook - The Chinese retail market is showing signs of recovery, with a projected retail sales total of 48.7 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [4]. - Key trends include the acceleration of consumption demand driven by policy support, the rise of silver economy due to aging population, and the growth of smart and green consumption facilitated by digital technology [5][6]. Group 5: Government Support and Fiscal Measures - The government plans to implement various fiscal measures to support consumption, including a special bond issuance of 300 billion yuan to promote consumer goods exchange programs [9]. - Enhancing consumer purchasing power through increased pensions and medical subsidies is a critical focus for the government to stimulate demand [9].
如何提振消费、扩大内需?中国发展高层论坛与会嘉宾这样说→
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-03-24 14:27
新希望集团有限公司董事长 刘永好:拉动消费的同时,拉动我们的制造业的发展。老年人(方面)现 在国家增加了一些退休金,我觉得总体是好的。那么对医疗健康、对老年银发经济、对服务业增加一些 支持,我觉得这也是对拉动消费起积极的作用。 高清 倍速 00:00 02:34 (央视财经《经济信息联播》)近期,新发布的《提振消费专项行动方案》受到社会高度关注,让消费 这驾"马车"跑得更稳更快,对于经济增长至关重要。在今年的中国发展高层论坛年会现场,如何提振消 费、扩大内需,也成为与会嘉宾们讨论的一大焦点话题。 总台央视记者 宁坤:在本届论坛年会的开幕式上,春节以来我国在电影、冰雪、文旅等消费市场接连 出现的热点再次被提及,展现出国内经济循环的巨大潜力。这两天多位参会嘉宾在采访交流时表示,下 一阶段仍需多措并举、打通消费环节存在的各项堵点、卡点。 中国国际经济交流中心资深专家委员 朱民:要保持居民收入赶上经济增长的速度,社保、医疗、退休 金等,我觉得都是很重要的方面,能让老百姓放心、能够有资源消费。我觉得现在的政策是越来越强、 越来越细在消费市场方面,所以会在中国今年的经济增长中起到一个很积极的作用。 如何提振消费、扩大内需 ...
新高、扩大、升级……透过关键词看外企坚定投资中国
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-03-24 06:18
央视网消息:中国发展高层论坛2025年年会正在北京举行。2025年论坛"朋友圈"不断扩大,首次参会的跨国企业数量创新高。 与会嘉宾表示,开放的中国"磁吸力"持续增强,让越来越多外资企业更加坚定地投资中国。 采埃孚集团董事会主席、首席执行官柯皓哲介绍,他们正在不断扩展工厂网络,他们刚刚在武汉开设了两家工厂。在其他城 市,他们在中国有50家工厂、4个技术中心。而且在广州和济南新成立了一个技术中心。 梅赛德斯-奔驰集团股份公司董事会主席康林松介绍,过去几年,他们大幅提升了奔驰北京研发中心的创新实力,还在上海开设 了第二个研发中心,以便更好地接触上海及周边地区的科技集群。为了全面的技术和产品升级,他们将在未来几年内投入不少于140 亿元的资金,继续加强在中国的业务。 新高、扩大、升级……透过关键词看外企坚定投资中国 这届中国发展高层论坛,首次参会的跨国企业数量创新高,来自8个国家的17家企业2025年第一次派正式代表参加论坛,占企业 总数的20%。 不少跨国企业负责人都带来了扩大投资的最新计划,在中国建立研发中心,加速布局高技术、高附加值环节,正在成为不少外 资企业的共同选择。 两天的论坛中,中外嘉宾围绕扩大制度型开 ...