Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing renewed interest as the Shanghai Composite Index returns to the 4000-point mark after 10 years, prompting investors to seek better yield alternatives amid declining deposit rates and improving equity market performance [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The issuance scale of mixed financial products has shown a significant expansion trend this year, with some products offering annualized returns of over 5% to 7% [1] - The "fixed income +" products are increasingly focusing on equity assets, with a notable rise in the performance of mixed products compared to the previous year [2][3] - The average annualized return of "fixed income +" products from Everbright Wealth is above 3%, with some products achieving returns over 5% [3] Group 2: Asset Allocation - The typical allocation model for "fixed income +" products consists of 70%-90% fixed income assets (such as government bonds and high-grade credit bonds) and 10%-30% equity/alternative assets (like stocks and REITs) [4] - The "plus" portion of "fixed income +" products has been expanded to include REITs, quantitative strategies, and derivatives, which have shown positive results [3][4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Financial institutions are increasingly collaborating with external managers to gain alpha returns from equity assets and diversify their portfolios [6] - The regulatory environment is encouraging financial companies to participate in equity markets, with recent policies allowing them to engage in IPOs and private placements [6][7] - The focus on equity investments is seen as a market trend, with firms needing to enhance their research capabilities to manage risks effectively [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is potential for further expansion in the "plus" segment of "fixed income +" products, particularly in cross-border assets and derivatives [10] - The industry is cautiously optimistic about the upward potential of "fixed income +" yields, with current yields being 30-50 basis points higher than pure fixed income products [11] - The overall yield environment for various financial products has been declining, with recent reports indicating a drop in annualized yields for open and closed fixed income products [11]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Stock Timing Model - **Construction Idea**: The model is based on the comprehensive judgment of economic growth and liquidity easing[18] - **Construction Process**: - Construct timing factors from two core dimensions: economic growth and liquidity easing[18] - Factors include PMI YoY smoothed value, manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount cumulative YoY, CPI YoY smoothed value, and new medium and long-term loans cumulative value YoY[19] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using CSI 800 total return as the benchmark[19] - **Evaluation**: The model effectively captures stock market cycles, avoiding downturns[21] 2. Model Name: Bond Timing Model - **Construction Idea**: The model analyzes from the perspective of monetary liquidity supply and demand[23] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include DR007, SHIBOR, and social financing scale stock YoY smoothed value[24] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if short-term average < long-term average} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using ChinaBond Treasury Total Net Price Index as the benchmark[24] - **Evaluation**: The model captures bond market trends, minimizing drawdowns[25] 3. Model Name: All-Weather Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The model adjusts risk budgets for different assets based on timing signals[17] - **Construction Process**: - Use a risk parity model to allocate risk contributions of assets[30] - Adjust risk budgets based on stock and bond timing signals[32] - Optimize the model: $$ \begin{array}{c} \min \sum_{i=1}^{N} \left( RC_i - b_i \sigma_p \right)^2 \\ \text{s.t.} \sum_{i=1}^{N} \omega_i = 1 \\ 0 \leq \omega_i \leq 1 \end{array} $$ - Backtest using a combination of CSI 800, ChinaBond Treasury Total Wealth Index, CSI Convertible Bond Index, S&P 500 ETF, and AAA Credit Bonds[31] - **Evaluation**: The strategy provides higher absolute returns while controlling risk[38] Model Backtest Results Stock Timing Model - Annualized Return: 14.1%[21] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 5.4%[21] - Excess Annualized Return: 8.7%[21] - Monthly Win Rate: 56.7%[21] Bond Timing Model - Annualized Return: 2.3%[25] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 1.1%[25] - Excess Annualized Return: 1.1%[25] - Monthly Win Rate: 68.3%[25] All-Weather Strategy - Annualized Return: 6.1%[38] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 5.1%[38] - Excess Annualized Return: 1.0%[38] - Maximum Drawdown: 2.6%[38] - Sharpe Ratio: 2.04[38] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Value-Growth Rotation Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on economic recovery, liquidity, and market sentiment[47] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, PPI YoY smoothed value, M2 YoY smoothed value, social financing YoY smoothed value, medium and long-term loan growth YoY smoothed value, market turnover rate, and margin balance percentile[48] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using the National Growth Index and National Value Index[48] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the cyclical characteristics of value and growth styles[47] 2. Factor Name: Size Rotation Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on economic prosperity, liquidity, and market sentiment[55] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, PPI YoY smoothed value, gold daily return rate, government bond yield, credit spread, M1 YoY smoothed value, market turnover rate, and margin balance percentile[56] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using the CSI 300 Index and CSI 1000 Index[57] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the cyclical characteristics of large-cap and small-cap styles[55] Factor Backtest Results Value-Growth Rotation Factor - Annualized Return: 9.2%[51] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 1.7%[51] - Excess Annualized Return: 7.5%[51] - Monthly Win Rate: 60.2%[51] Size Rotation Factor - Annualized Return: 9.2%[59] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 0.1%[59] - Excess Annualized Return: 9.0%[59] - Monthly Win Rate: 58.3%[59] Industry Rotation Solution 1. Factor Name: Macro Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on the second-order changes in economic growth and liquidity[67] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include PMI, social financing scale, manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, CPI, M2 growth rate, 10-year government bond yield, and credit spread[70] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[73] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the marginal inflection points of macro trends[67] 2. Factor Name: Fundamental Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on historical prosperity, prosperity changes, and prosperity expectations[79] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry component stock median, industry profitability, and industry consensus profit expectations[79] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[82] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the core of industry prosperity[79] 3. Factor Name: Technical Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on index momentum, leading stock momentum, and K-line patterns[87] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry index relative excess return IR, leading stock sharp ratio, and K-line pattern score[89] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[96] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the technical evaluation of industry trends[87] 4. Factor Name: Crowding Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on financing inflows, turnover rate, and transaction proportion[100] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry financing buy amount, industry turnover rate, and industry transaction amount proportion[101] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[104] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the crowding level of industries[100] Industry Rotation Backtest Results Macro Factor - Annualized Return: 42.9%[73] - Benchmark Annualized Return: -22.8%[73] - Excess Annualized Return: 65.7%[73] Fundamental Factor - Annualized Return: 11.3%[85] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 2.8%[85] - Excess Annualized Return: 8.5%[85] - IC Mean: 8.2%[85] Technical Factor - Annualized Return: 9.7%[97] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 2.8%[97] - Excess Annualized Return: 6.9%[97] - IC Mean: 8.2%[97] Crowding Factor - Annualized Return: -2.9

Core Viewpoints - The current market dynamics and potential for a "slow bull" market are under discussion, with emphasis on the importance of understanding the underlying drivers of stock and gold prices [4][11][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stock market's volatility is influenced by investor psychology, particularly greed and fear, which are common pitfalls for many investors [6][5]. - The A-share market is characterized by high turnover rates, leading to elevated valuations and a tendency for prolonged bear markets compared to bull markets [9][10]. - The recent market rally is attributed to a combination of improved corporate fundamentals, declining interest rates, and supportive policies, although the sustainability of this rally remains uncertain [14][19][20]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamentals of listed companies and avoid chasing trends, emphasizing the importance of buying low and selling high [6][7]. - The concept of "slow bull" is still under evaluation, with a consensus that a sustained upward trend would require several years of consistent growth [13][14]. - The current valuation levels of A-shares are considered moderate, suggesting that while there is potential for growth, caution is warranted [16][24]. Group 3: Gold Market Insights - The recent surge in gold prices, which has increased by over 50% this year, raises concerns about potential corrections, indicating that current levels may not be the best entry point for new investments [41][43]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves to enhance monetary authority, reflecting a strategic shift away from reliance on the US dollar [47]. - Recommendations for gold investment allocation suggest a cautious approach, with a current optimal allocation of around 10% of an investment portfolio [48].

Core Viewpoint - Recent international gold prices have retreated from historical highs, with COMEX gold futures declining for three consecutive trading days, closing at $3968.10 per ounce, approximately 9% lower than the record high set in October. Despite this pullback, gold prices have maintained a 3% increase for the month and over 50% year-to-date, indicating both volatility and resilience in the gold market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts note that the current price adjustment coincides with a monetary policy window from the Federal Reserve, suggesting that short-term fluctuations in gold prices should not overshadow its long-term support logic [1] - Sprott's senior partner Ryan McIntyre highlights that the restructuring of the global trust system and rising sovereign risks are creating structural support for gold, particularly due to the ongoing U.S. high deficit and federal debt issues, which may continue to drive demand for asset diversification [3] - Aakash Doshi, head of metal strategy at State Street Bank, identifies a potential technical support range for gold prices between $3600 and $3650, emphasizing that structural factors such as global fiscal debt burdens and central bank gold purchases remain intact [3] Group 2: Price Projections - Doshi's probability analysis suggests that the likelihood of gold prices surpassing $5000 is significantly higher than the chance of falling to $3000, providing a new perspective for market observation [3] - Historical data indicates that after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since 2020 in September, gold experienced a brief fluctuation but subsequently rose by approximately 13% within a month, reaching a new historical high, demonstrating a multi-stage response of gold prices to monetary policy [3] Group 3: Asset Allocation - Professional institutions generally regard gold as a crucial component of investment portfolios, with risk management models indicating that the allocation of physical gold and gold ETFs typically ranges from 5% to 20% [4] - Market practices show that maintaining a stable allocation ratio through regular adjustments is a common method for institutional investors to manage risk exposure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the effectiveness of the "Xiaoxue Three-Point Method" in achieving stable investment returns through diversified asset allocation and systematic investment strategies, demonstrating a significant annual return and low drawdown compared to major indices [2][5][23]. Performance Overview - The Xiaoxue Three-Point Method account achieved a cumulative return of 16.43% and an annualized return of 22.57%, with a weighted return of 22.24% [5]. - The performance benchmark, a composite index, yielded a return of 17.45%, while other major indices like the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index returned 19.20% and 28.38%, respectively [5]. - The account's maximum drawdown was only -8.09%, significantly lower than the drawdowns of major indices, indicating effective risk management through low-correlation asset allocation [7][8]. Risk Management - The article highlights the importance of controlling risk, noting that a diversified asset allocation can mitigate losses during market downturns, leading to better long-term performance [8][10]. - A comparison of different strategies shows that a conservative approach can yield better returns over time, even in volatile markets [9]. Monthly Performance - The account maintained an 80% probability of positive monthly returns throughout the year, demonstrating resilience against market fluctuations [10][11]. Investment Strategy - The strategy focuses on asset allocation rather than market timing, allowing for smoother cost averaging and reduced volatility [13][14]. - The article outlines specific actions taken in response to market events, emphasizing a gradual and cautious approach rather than aggressive trading [14][15]. User Experience - The method has shown high adaptability, with a 96% probability of positive returns for users, indicating that long-term holding and systematic investment strategies are effective [19][20]. - Nearly 50% of users engaged in regular investment contributions, which helped to average costs and reduce timing risks [20]. Current Market Outlook - The article suggests that the current market trends driven by technology and global liquidity are favorable for investment, and it encourages continued investment in diversified assets [22][23]. - It asserts that now is still a good time to enter the market, emphasizing the importance of consistent investment strategies over trying to time the market [22][23].

Economic Overview - Eurozone's fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP for Germany, France, and Italy was 2.2% in H1 2025, down from 2.5% in Q4 2024, indicating a "tight fiscal & loose monetary" environment[4] - U.S. core CPI in September 2025 was 3%, below the expected 3.1%, showing a decrease in inflationary pressure[7] - U.S. durable goods consumption expenditure increased by $20 billion, from $5.56 trillion to $5.68 trillion, despite new tariffs[10] Market Valuation - The effective exchange rate index for the euro was at a historical high of 130 as of October 24, 2025, indicating overvaluation of euro assets[13] - The 10-year government bond yield spread between Italy and Germany fell to 79 basis points, and between Greece and Germany to 66 basis points, both at 15-year lows, reflecting low risk premiums in Southern European bonds[13] Commodity Insights - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4,336.4, exceeding the 200-day moving average by 32.5%, suggesting potential for a price correction[16] - The copper-to-gold price ratio fell to 2.7, indicating a divergence with the offshore RMB exchange rate, which rose to 7.1[27] Investment Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was 4.2%, significantly below the 16-year average, suggesting room for valuation increases[18] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds was 28.8, above the past 16-year average, indicating enhanced attractiveness of equities over fixed income[29]

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry stocks are experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant gains in key stocks and ETFs, indicating a favorable investment environment in the gold sector [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) rose by 1.50%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Huayu Mining (601020) up 7.53% and Jiangxi Copper (600362) up 6.07% [1]. - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) increased by 1.73%, with an average daily trading volume of 687 million yuan over the past month, ranking first among comparable funds [1][2]. - The Gold Stock ETF saw a significant growth in scale, increasing by 1.097 billion yuan in the past month, placing it in the top one-sixth of comparable funds [2][3]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Market Trends - The Gold Stock ETF experienced a substantial increase in shares, with 76 million new shares added in the last two weeks, also ranking in the top one-sixth of comparable funds [3]. - The ETF recorded a net inflow of 964,100 yuan recently, with a total of 506.426 million yuan net inflow over the last ten trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3]. - The spot gold price recently fell below the support level of 3,900 USD/ounce, reaching a low of 3,886.3 USD/ounce, marking a decline of over 10% from its peak of 4,381.11 USD/ounce [3]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, amidst concerns over the Fed's independence and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which may support gold prices [4]. - Long-term factors driving the upward movement of gold prices include continued central bank purchases to hedge against dollar credit risk and a shift in gold ETFs from net selling to net buying [4]. - The gold market is currently influenced by both monetary and financial attributes, suggesting that despite short-term volatility, the long-term investment value remains significant [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) is highlighted as a more elastic investment option during periods of rising gold prices, providing better liquidity and potential returns [5]. - The ETF closely tracks the China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) and selects high-quality companies from the gold industry across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong markets [5].

Group 1: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, with average housing prices down approximately 30% from their peak in 2021 [3] - Governments are removing strict purchase restrictions, banks are lowering mortgage rates, and tax incentives are being introduced to stimulate the market [3] - Despite price declines, many cities still exhibit housing bubbles, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, where the price-to-income ratio can reach 40 times [5] Group 2: Investment Risks in Real Estate - The pandemic has negatively impacted incomes, making it difficult for residents to afford high housing prices [5] - The investment demand for real estate has significantly decreased, leading to concerns about potential further price declines [5] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - The liquidity of physical gold is questionable, as selling gold bars to banks often results in lower recovery prices compared to market value [7] - The price of gold is influenced by various factors, including the U.S. dollar index and global geopolitical situations, leading to high volatility [8] - Recent geopolitical events have caused significant fluctuations in gold prices, posing risks for ordinary investors [8] Group 4: Bank Deposits - Since 2024, major state-owned banks have been continuously lowering deposit interest rates, reducing the returns for savers [7] - Rising prices are eroding the purchasing power of savings, although bank deposits may still prevent significant wealth erosion compared to other investments [7] Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategy - A diversified asset allocation is essential for wealth preservation and growth, suggesting a balanced distribution across low-risk, medium-risk, and no-risk investments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The latest heavy positions of public FOFs (Fund of Funds) reveal a strong preference for bond funds and ETFs, indicating a strategic shift towards safer investments in the current market environment [2][4]. Group 1: FOF Heavy Positions - As of the end of Q3 2025, bond funds remain the dominant category in FOF heavy positions, with 31 out of the top 50 funds being bond-related, accounting for over 50% of the total [4]. - The top five funds favored by FOFs in Q3 include: 1. Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF with a market value of over 3.29 billion yuan held by 67 FOFs 2. Hua An Gold ETF with over 1.73 billion yuan 3. Ping An Zhong Dai - High-Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor ETF with over 1.59 billion yuan 4. Bosera Zhong Dai 0-3 Year National Development Bank ETF with over 1.37 billion yuan 5. Bosera Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Treasury ETF with over 1.07 billion yuan [4][6]. Group 2: Active Equity Fund Holdings - Among active equity funds, Yi Fang Da Ke Rong leads with a total holding value of 590 million yuan across 12 FOFs, followed by Hua Xia Innovation Frontier A with 485 million yuan held by 15 FOFs [7][8]. - Other notable active equity funds include Xing Quan Business Model Preferred A and Yi Fang Da Information Industry Selected C, both exceeding 400 million yuan in holdings [7][8]. Group 3: Fund Increases - The most increased fund in Q3 was Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF, which saw an increase of 1.647 billion yuan, bringing its total market value to 3.29 billion yuan [9][10]. - Other significant increases include Ping An Zhong Dai - High-Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor ETF with an increase of 1.234 billion yuan and Fu Guo State-Owned Enterprise Bond C with over 900 million yuan [9][10]. Group 4: Strategic Focus Areas - FOF managers are increasingly focusing on gold-related funds and have increased allocations in technology and resource sectors, reflecting a strategic shift in response to market conditions [11][12]. - Managers express confidence in the A-share market's long-term potential, particularly in consumer-related sectors, while also maintaining a diversified approach with overseas bond investments and REITs [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, dropping below $3960 per ounce after reaching a historical high of $4380 per ounce, primarily due to easing trade tensions and reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices fell 3.2% on Monday, continuing a downward trend, with a notable drop in gold ETFs, which reduced holdings by 448,706 ounces (approximately $1.79 billion), marking the largest single-day reduction in six months [1] - Despite the recent decline, gold has still increased by about 50% year-to-date, driven by central bank purchases and currency devaluation trades [1][2] - A survey at the LBMA conference indicated a bullish sentiment among participants, with expectations that gold prices could approach $5000 per ounce in a year [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may present opportunities for central banks to increase gold holdings, with reports indicating that the Bank of Korea is considering re-entering the gold market after more than a decade [2] - The World Gold Council noted a decrease in central bank demand for gold, which could lead to deeper market adjustments that may be welcomed by professional traders [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend a cautious approach to gold investments, suggesting that investors wait for a bottom before buying during a rebound [2] - There is a prevailing view that gold remains underrepresented in global asset allocation, with only about 5% of investments in gold compared to traditional stock and bond portfolios [3] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 basis points, which typically supports non-yielding assets like gold [3]