美国总统特朗普30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。 鲍威尔将于今年5月结束美联储主席任期。他虽然是特朗普任命的，但却因货币政策长期遭特朗普公开 指责。去年再度就任美国总统后，特朗普曾多次尝试干涉美联储货币政策决议。鲍威尔目前还因美联储 办公大楼翻修项目遭刑事调查。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场， 但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联储主 席。当时，鲍威尔与沃什均为特朗普考虑的人选，但鲍威尔最终获得提名。 凯文·沃什 资料图 （央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026. This nomination has led to support from previously considered candidates who have criticized the current monetary policy [1]. Group 1: Support for Warsh and Criticism of Current Policy - White House National Economic Council Director Hassett expressed support for Warsh and criticized the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates in January, calling it a mistake [1][2]. - Hassett emphasized that the Trump administration aims to ease the Fed's work and believes that supply-side prosperity will provide the Fed with room to lower interest rates [2]. - Fed Governor Milan praised Warsh's innovative spirit and stated that he would continue in his role until a successor is confirmed, while also criticizing the current restrictive nature of interest rates [1][4]. Group 2: Concerns About Economic Conditions - Fed Governor Waller, who voted against maintaining interest rates, highlighted the need for further easing of monetary policy due to economic activity being constrained. He expressed concerns about the labor market's weakness, noting rising unemployment and slowing job growth [7]. - Waller indicated that upcoming data revisions might show no actual growth in wage employment last year, reflecting significant uncertainty in future job growth [7]. - He also mentioned that inflation, excluding the impact of Trump tariffs, is close to the Fed's 2% target [8].

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future. Here’s What You Need To Know: Gold surged after the Fed held rates steady, notching a fresh all-time high near $5,560 before momentum flipped sharply. A wave of profit-taking and thinning bids above $5,500 helped trigger ...

美联储理事米兰：特朗普从未要求我在货币政策方面做任何事. 来源：滚动播报 ...

随着对2026年加息的呼声降温，外界预计欧洲央行至少在明年年底前都将维持利率不变。 接受彭博调查的经济学家一致预测：欧洲央行管理委员会2月4日至5日在法兰克福开会时，将会把存款 利率维持在2%。 虽然预计在2028年之前进行一次或多次加息的人占比已从上次调查的大约四分之一上升到三分之一，但 认为今年会采取此类行动的人减少。 这种变化背后的原因是经济不确定性加剧：美国总统特朗普暗示可能会随时推翻去年夏天与欧洲达成的 贸易协议；而欧元升值则可能抑制出口，并对已经低于目标的通胀造成压力。 以欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德为首的官员认为，现有的货币政策设置与应对未来挑战相匹配。但 是，尤其是考虑到欧元走强，奥地利央行行长Martin Kocher等人强调需要做好快速行动的准备。 "拉加德可能会重申，欧元区经济仍处于良好状态，但风险依然处于高位，"瑞典银行经济学家Nerijus Maciulis表示，"2026年的前几周清楚地表明，贸易协定和协议仍然非常脆弱。" 受访者认为，在特朗普利用世界经济论坛的舞台要求欧洲将格陵兰割让给美国，否则就得承受更高的关 税之后，地缘政治紧张局势已达到至少两年来的最高水平。 尽管特朗普最 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts reflects a cautious approach due to persistent inflation and previous controversial rate cuts, indicating a preference for stability over hasty actions [1][3] - Market reactions show mixed responses, with major indices fluctuating, suggesting uncertainty among investors as they seek the next opportunity [3][5] - The tech sector continues to exhibit divergence during earnings season, with storage-related stocks benefiting from strong AI demand, while established companies like Microsoft face volatility despite solid performance [5][9] Group 2 - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching approximately $5,400 per ounce, indicates a collective flight to safety amid inflation and geopolitical concerns, highlighting market skepticism towards monetary policy sustainability [7][9] - Silver also experienced significant price increases, reflecting a rapid shift in market sentiment regarding inflation and monetary easing, as well as geopolitical risks [9][11] - The current financial climate reveals a dichotomy between optimism in the stock market and fear reflected in precious metal prices, suggesting a complex economic landscape [9][13]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in gold and silver prices on January 29, 2026, was triggered by a combination of factors including the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and increased margin requirements for precious metals futures [3][4][14]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Silver futures plummeted from approximately $122, down 7% to below $108, marking a decline of over 12% [1] - Gold prices fell from around $5,600 per ounce, down 4% to $5,200, with a total drop of 10% from the peak [1] - The dollar index surged by 1%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points, and the 2-year yield increased by 2.3 basis points [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Influence - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, which was expected, but Chairman Powell's comments on persistent inflation due to tariff policies shocked the market [3] - Powell indicated that the anticipated quick return of inflation would not materialize, leading to a consensus that interest rates would remain high for an extended period [3] Group 3: Margin Requirement Changes - The CME Group announced an increase in margin requirements for silver and other precious metals futures, raising the margin for non-high-risk accounts from 9% to 11% and for high-risk accounts from 9.9% to 12.1% [4][5] - This was the second adjustment in a short period, following a change in the margin calculation system that effectively raised trading thresholds [6] Group 4: Speculative Dynamics - In 2025, silver prices rose over 140%, and in January 2026 alone, they increased by over 58%, driven by high leverage speculation [8][9] - The increase in margin requirements led to many leveraged traders facing margin calls, forcing them to sell contracts to reduce risk, which triggered a liquidity crisis in the market [11] Group 5: Market Valuation and Sentiment - Prior to the crash, gold and silver prices had reached unsustainable levels, with gold rising over 34% and silver soaring 234% from their respective starting points [12][14] - The market was characterized by a significant speculative bubble, and the combination of external bearish signals led to a rush to realize profits, resulting in massive sell-offs [14] Group 6: Broader Market Impact - The crash affected global markets, with related stocks and ETFs experiencing significant declines [18][26] - The volatility in the precious metals market led to increased anxiety among investors regarding the value of companies holding large amounts of gold and silver [19][26] - The event highlighted the interconnectedness of liquidity, leverage, and market sentiment, demonstrating how quickly market conditions can shift from euphoria to panic [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, which may lead to significant changes in U.S. monetary policy [1] - Kevin Walsh has a background in investment banking, having worked at Morgan Stanley and served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, where he was a key figure during the 2008 financial crisis [1] - Walsh has shifted from being a supporter of free trade to endorsing Trump's tariff policies and advocating for lower interest rates, indicating a potential change in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that Walsh's nomination may not lead to aggressive rate cuts, as he is perceived to be less dovish compared to other candidates [3] - There is uncertainty regarding Walsh's confirmation by the Senate, especially following the criminal investigation of current Chairman Powell, which has led to skepticism among some Republican senators [3] - Walsh's recent calls for comprehensive reform of the Federal Reserve, including reducing its balance sheet and easing bank regulations, contrast with typical policies associated with a rate-cutting cycle [2]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for December increased by 0.5% month-on-month, marking the largest rise in three months, with core metrics also reaching a yearly high, exceeding market expectations [1][4] - Companies are continuing to pass on cost pressures through supply chains, further elevating terminal inflation levels [1] Price Trends - Service costs have significantly risen, with trade profit margins experiencing the highest month-on-month increase since mid-2024, driven mainly by wholesale machinery and equipment [1] - While overall commodity prices remained flat due to declining energy prices, core commodity prices are accelerating, particularly in categories such as household appliances, construction machinery, industrial chemicals, and light trucks [1][2] Monetary Policy Implications - The PPI components will directly influence the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, potentially affecting future interest rate decisions [1][3] - Following three consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025, the decision to pause further cuts was made based on stable economic activity and signs of labor market stabilization [3] - Despite earlier data showing a lower-than-expected increase in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, the latest PPI data indicates that wholesale price pressures may still be accumulating and could transmit to consumer levels, impacting the Fed's policy path [3]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Waller to replace Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair indicates an attempt to shift monetary policy towards interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's economic agenda [1] Group 1: Background of Waller - Waller, a Harvard Law School graduate, has a background in both Wall Street and public service, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor during the 2008 financial crisis [2] - He was the youngest appointee to the Federal Reserve Board at age 35 and has a history of advising Trump on economic policy [2] Group 2: Policy Proposals - Waller has publicly criticized the Federal Reserve's policy of expanding its balance sheet and advocates for comprehensive reforms, including significant reductions in the balance sheet to create room for future interest rate cuts [3] - He has shifted from a cautious stance on rate cuts to supporting measures that would facilitate lower interest rates, although some question the effectiveness of balance sheet reduction [3] Group 3: Constraints on Power - Waller's ability to influence monetary policy will be limited as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds the decision-making power, requiring majority support for any policy changes [4] - Historical precedents show that even respected chairs can face challenges in leadership, as seen with past chairs like Paul Volcker and Jerome Powell [4] Group 4: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The appointment of a chair aligned with the President's policies does not necessarily end the Federal Reserve's independence, as the resistance from other policymakers will be crucial [6] - Ongoing legal challenges regarding the President's ability to dismiss Federal Reserve officials could impact the independence of the institution [6] Group 5: Potential Impact of Powell's Decision - Powell's decision to remain as a Federal Reserve Governor could significantly constrain Waller's influence on monetary policy, as Powell's presence would serve as a counterbalance to the President's agenda [7] - Observers note that Powell's recent hesitance may signal an effort to dissuade Trump from nominating a more unconventional candidate for the chair position [7]