Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 油价走弱，金价续涨 研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。据新华社，会议指 出，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质 量发展。中国商务部回应美方海事、物流和造船领域 301 调查。商务部发言人称，中方敦促美方尊重事实和多边经贸规 则，遵守市场经济和公平竞争原则，停止"甩锅推责"，尽早纠正错误做法。中方将密切关注美方有关动向，并将坚决采取 必要措施维护自身权益。 重点品种： 股指，原油，贵金属 原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 0.33% 。欧佩克周三在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减产的最新 计划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万 桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截 ...

国务院总理李强4月18日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干 举措，听取"3·15"晚会曝光问题处置情况汇报，讨论《中华人民共和国社会救助法（草 案）》，审议通过《中华人民共和国植物新品种保护条例（修订草案）》。 会议指出，面对复杂严峻的外部环境，要深入贯彻中央经济工作会议部署，加力落实《政府工 作报告》明确的政策措施，锚定经济社会发展目标，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外 贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质量发展。要鼓励 企业积极稳定就业，加大职业技能培训力度，扩大以工代赈等支持，加强就业公共服务。要稳 定外贸外资发展，一业一策、一企一策加大支持力度，支持外资企业境内再投资。要促进养 老、生育、文化、旅游等服务消费， 扩大有效投资，大力提振民间投资积极性。 要持续稳定 股市 ，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。 相关举措一旦推出，要直达企业和群众，提高落 地效率，确保实施效果。 会议指出，"3·15"晚会曝光问题处置工作已取得阶段性进展，要坚持举一反三、标本兼治， 强化日常监管和预防工作，聚焦民生关切强化质量安全监管，进一步压紧压实全链条监管责 任， ...

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policies to counter external uncertainties and stabilize employment and the economy [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of diversifying markets to reduce reliance on a single market, particularly in light of the complex international investment environment [3] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 5.26 trillion yuan in Q1, a 2.2% increase year-on-year, accounting for 51.1% of China's total foreign trade [3] Group 2 - The government is implementing measures to optimize customs and improve the business environment at ports, which includes 16 measures to facilitate enterprise customs clearance [3] - The report outlines practical steps to support foreign trade, such as enhancing financial services and expanding export credit insurance coverage [3] - Utilizing e-commerce platforms and supermarkets is suggested as a way to help more enterprises cope with foreign trade challenges [3] Group 3 - Experts suggest that boosting domestic consumption can effectively absorb pressure from reduced exports to the U.S., emphasizing the need to address standardization issues [4] - The current structural contradictions in China's economy include overcapacity in low-end consumer goods and insufficient supply in high-end services [5] - Improving income distribution and supporting small and medium enterprises are seen as crucial for enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [5] Group 4 - The meeting stresses the importance of the real estate market in stimulating domestic demand, with ongoing policies aimed at promoting healthy development [7] - There is a call for more favorable policies to encourage developers to provide high-quality housing at reasonable prices [7] - Suggestions include exploring the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing to stabilize the real estate market and improve living standards [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Buy" [5]. Core Views - The focus on the domestic demand sector is expected to increase due to tariff impacts, with potential financial improvements in sectors like dairy products. Despite unclear short-term demand recovery signals, the market generally believes that policies aimed at boosting domestic demand will eventually lead to improvements in the demand side, thereby enhancing the valuation space for the sector [1][13]. - The second quarter is anticipated to see sectors such as dairy, frozen foods, snacks, and liquor entering a low base period for financial reports, which may support a rebound in stock prices despite limited short-term demand improvement [1][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector is experiencing heightened attention due to escalating tariff conflicts, particularly in dairy products, which may see financial improvements [1][13]. 2. Liquor Sector - Demand in the liquor sector remains subdued but aligns with industry expectations. Supply-side pressures are easing as manufacturers reduce payment demands on distributors. Notably, Moutai maintains stable operations, with improved sales dynamics following price adjustments [2][14]. 3. Dairy Sector - The dairy industry is entering a supply contraction phase, with significant operational pressures on farms. The average price of fresh milk has dropped to 3.07 CNY/kg, nearing cash cost levels. The market is closely monitoring the supply-demand balance, which is influenced by various factors, including policy measures aimed at stabilizing production capacity [3][15]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a left-side configuration strategy, advocating for investments in dairy and snack sectors as foundational holdings, with a focus on companies like Yili and Yanjinpuzi. It also recommends flexible trading in underperforming sectors with potential for recovery, such as Lihai Foods and Shede Liquor [4][44]. 5. Key Data Tracking - As of April 11, 2025, the valuation level of the food and beverage sector (PE TTM, excluding negative values) is 21 times, reflecting a 5.5% increase since the beginning of the year. The liquor index PE is 20 times, up 4.6%, while the beverage index PE is 23 times, up 6.6% [16][20]. 6. Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies in the sector have varying earnings forecasts, with Moutai projected to achieve a net profit of 862.28 million CNY in 2024, while Wuliangye is expected to reach 331.73 million CNY [39][41]. 7. Important Company Announcements - Recent announcements include significant revenue declines for companies like Huangshanghuang and Juewei Foods, indicating challenges in the current market environment [37]. 8. Summary of Key Reports - The report includes various company briefings and annual report reviews, highlighting strategic directions and performance insights for companies like Moutai and Baidu Foods [43].

Market Overview - The market showed resilience this week, with the three major indices closing in the green despite a decline in individual stock performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.73% [1][9][12] - The market was supported by the "national team" stabilizing actions and expectations for domestic demand policies, leading to a recovery after a period of decline [2][12] Economic Analysis - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has prompted proactive measures from China, with the national team maintaining market stability. This is expected to impact the US economy negatively and increase inflationary pressures [2][9] - March CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, with a narrowing drop compared to February. The core CPI, however, rose by 0.5%, indicating a mild improvement in consumer demand [10][12] - The PPI for March decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by falling international oil prices, which also affected domestic prices [10][12] Policy Outlook - The liquidity in April is expected to remain stable and slightly loose, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. The central bank's recent operations indicate a supportive stance towards liquidity [11][12] - The government is likely to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to counter external uncertainties, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment [10][11][12] Sector Recommendations - Investment focus is recommended on sectors such as finance, food and beverage, public utilities, retail, and technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) [3][12] Stock Performance Tracking - The report includes a tracking of potential stocks for April, with notable mentions such as China Rare Earth (up 7.99% over the period) and Haidilao (up 3.60%) [20][21]

Core Insights - The 2025 Q1 Bloomberg China Bond Underwriting Rankings reveal significant trends in the bond market, highlighting the performance of various banks and securities firms in the issuance of bonds [2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The total issuance of Panda bonds in 2024 exceeded 208.25 billion RMB, while in Q1 2025, the issuance by foreign institutions in the domestic market reached 41.6 billion RMB, showing a decrease of 38.28% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The overall issuance of domestic credit bonds in Q1 2025 was approximately 3.77 trillion RMB, reflecting a decline of about 12.61% year-on-year [6]. - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit increased to approximately 8.35 trillion RMB in Q1 2025, up 11.97% from the previous year [10]. Group 2: Rankings and Performance - In the Bloomberg Q1 2025 China Bond Rankings, the top three positions were held by Bank of China (5.918%), CITIC Bank (5.675%), and Industrial Bank (5.297%) [7]. - For corporate bonds, CITIC Securities (13.450%), CITIC Jiantou (9.988%), and former Guotai Junan Securities (8.053%) maintained their top three positions [7]. - In the offshore RMB bond rankings (excluding certificates of deposit), the top three were held by Amundi (12.248%), HSBC (7.117%), and Standard Chartered Bank (5.021%) [7]. Group 3: Local Government Bonds - The issuance of local government bonds in Q1 2025 was approximately 2.66 trillion RMB, a significant increase of about 78.26% year-on-year [12]. - The issuance included about 0.38 trillion RMB in general bonds and approximately 2.28 trillion RMB in special bonds, with debt resolution remaining a key focus [12]. Group 4: Offshore Bond Market - The issuance of offshore bonds (excluding certificates of deposit) by Chinese enterprises exceeded 401.4 billion RMB in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 35.36% [16]. - The issuance of "Kung Fu Bonds" surpassed 30 billion USD (approximately 219.2 billion RMB), showing a significant increase of over 122.20% compared to the previous year [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy on global financial markets, highlighting significant declines in U.S. stock indices and drawing historical parallels to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which had devastating effects on global trade and the economy [2][6][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices experienced declines of 4.84% and 5.41% on April 3, and further drops of 5.97% and 6.07% on April 4, with the Nasdaq 100 entering a technical bear market with a total decline of 21.55% since February 20 [2][4]. - In contrast, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed relatively milder declines, with the CSI All Share Index and Hang Seng Index falling by 0.78% and 1.52% respectively on April 3 [4]. Group 2: Historical Context - The article references the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which led to a 67% drop in global trade from $36 billion to $12 billion between 1929 and 1933, and a 68% decline in U.S. exports from $5.2 billion in 1929 to $1.6 billion in 1932 [6][12]. - The historical context emphasizes that trade wars can lead to severe economic downturns and a breakdown of multilateral cooperation, which could have long-lasting implications [6][12]. Group 3: Negotiation Strategies - The U.S. has set high tariff rates as a negotiation tactic, aiming to reshape international trade rules and compel other nations to make concessions on tariffs, market access, and regulatory frameworks [9][10]. - The article suggests that both the U.S. and its trading partners are likely to engage in negotiations rather than escalating trade conflicts indefinitely, given their interdependent economic relationships [10][11]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The potential worst-case scenario involves escalating tariff retaliation leading to a significant contraction in global trade, reminiscent of the 1930s, which could result in economic stagnation and structural shortages, ultimately pushing parties back to the negotiation table [12][14]. - Despite the negative impacts of tariff increases on economic growth, the article notes that consumption and investment could offset some of the adverse effects, with public spending becoming a crucial factor in mitigating economic downturns [14]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The article advises maintaining a solid fixed-income position as a safety net, suggesting that a 50% allocation to equities should be the ceiling for ordinary investors, with higher allocations to fixed income providing better risk mitigation during market downturns [16]. - It also recommends diversifying investments across different asset classes to smooth out volatility and improve overall portfolio performance [16][17].

Group 1 - The current situation between China and the US is significantly different from the previous trade conflict that began in 2018, with China having more room for policy maneuvering and asset price adjustments [1][14][43] - By early 2025, China's economic indicators such as PPI, real estate cycle, inventory cycle, and AH valuation are expected to be at historical lows, while fiscal expansion has considerable room for growth [2][15] - In contrast, the US economy in early 2025 is characterized by high deficit rates, debt levels, and interest expenditures, which limit further fiscal expansion, alongside a weak real estate recovery [19][20][21] Group 2 - The strategy for China involves enhancing domestic counter-cyclical adjustments and accelerating the development of new productive forces in technology, while waiting for increased domestic pressure in the US to explore negotiation opportunities [43] - Investment opportunities may arise from fiscal countermeasures, technology independence, and breaking through external demand channels, particularly in sectors like service consumption, military electronics, and the Belt and Road Initiative [43][61] Group 3 - The market is expected to respond positively to increased domestic counter-cyclical adjustments and technology independence, with a focus on sectors that can benefit from fiscal stimulus [44][45] - The technology sector, particularly in consumer electronics and semiconductors, is anticipated to gradually desensitize to trade conflicts, as seen in previous cycles [48][57] - The diversification of export markets is a potential strategy, with a notable decrease in reliance on the US market and an increase in exports to Southeast Asia and other regions [61][63]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the U.S. government's new tariff policies on global trade and the economy, particularly focusing on the implications for China and other countries such as the EU, ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea [2][4][5]. Core Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariffs on Global Trade**: The U.S. tariff increases are expected to reduce global export volumes by 20% to 30%. Japan and South Korea have seen tariffs of 24% and 25% respectively, with market reactions showing less decline than anticipated but a stronger rebound [2][5]. - **Economic Recession Risks**: The likelihood of a U.S. economic recession has risen above 50%, with GDP growth projected to be impacted by 2-3 percentage points due to the new tariffs [5][10]. - **Retaliatory Measures**: The EU and China are expected to implement retaliatory measures against the U.S. tariffs, with the EU indicating potential increases in import tariffs and regulatory costs for U.S. companies operating in Europe [4][5]. - **Global Trade Contraction**: A new round of high tariffs could lead to a global trade contraction of 15% to 25%, comparable to the impacts of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [5][7]. - **Market Volatility**: The U.S. stock market may experience declines, with credit spreads widening and tighter financial conditions emerging as a result of the tariffs [5][10]. - **De-dollarization Trend**: The weakening of the dollar indicates an accelerating trend of de-dollarization, which is closely linked to rising import prices and reduced purchasing power in the U.S. [2][5][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Focus on Key Indicators**: In the coming months, it is crucial to monitor retaliatory measures from other countries, export data from major economies, U.S. domestic consumption and investment, inflation changes, stock market volatility, credit spread changes, and dollar exchange rate trends to assess the effects of the new policies [6][11]. - **China's Economic Response**: China's economic response to the global trade shock will focus on government investment, fiscal policies, and consumer subsidies to mitigate the impact of reduced exports [7][18]. - **Investment Strategies**: In light of the high tariff scenario, corporate profit growth is expected to decline by 5% to 10%, with export-oriented companies being more adversely affected. Defensive sectors such as banking and transportation are viewed favorably [18][21]. - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: Different sectors will experience varying levels of impact from the tariffs, with some industries potentially benefiting from exemptions or reduced tariff burdens [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the potential economic ramifications of U.S. tariff policies and the strategic responses from affected countries and sectors.