Export Changes - Since Trump's administration, China's export structure has adjusted, with a decrease in the share of exports to the U.S. and an increase to ASEAN and Africa, while exports to the EU have rebounded after two years of decline[11] - In the first five months of 2025, China's exports to the U.S. accounted for approximately 11.9%, down 2.7 percentage points from 2024, while exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU increased to 17.8%, 5.6%, and 14.7% respectively[11] - By the end of 2024, China's export share of global exports was about 15.0%, rising to approximately 15.4% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in global market share[11] High-Frequency Tracking - Monitoring port cargo throughput can effectively reflect changes in China's export volume, showing a correlation with historical export trends[21] - South Korea's export growth is a key indicator of global demand, with a 5.4% increase recorded in early June 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in global demand[43] - Tracking the number of container ships from China to the U.S. provides insights into direct export trends, with a notable recovery in June but still weaker than March levels[43] Future Export Outlook - In an optimistic scenario, if the fentanyl tariffs are lifted and the exemption for reciprocal tariffs continues until the end of the year, the annual export growth rate could reach approximately 3.4%[57] - Conversely, under a baseline scenario, the annual export growth rate is expected to be around 2.1%, with risks of a decline in Q4 due to high base effects[57] - The end of the 90-day exemption period for tariffs on July 9, 2025, poses uncertainties for future export demand, as the U.S. may maintain its current tariff framework[54]

去年，日本向美国出口了138万辆汽车，占日本汽车出口总量的四分之一。日本汽车制造商也在加大在 美国的投资和生产。日本汽车制造商协会数据显示，日本汽车制造商每年在美国生产328万辆轿车和轻 型卡车。 此前，特朗普宣布暂停征收部分国家的所谓"对等关税"90天，暂停将于7月9日到期。日本预计将于7月 20日举行参议院选举，此次选举对石破茂所属的执政党自民党至关重要。 周一下午，石破茂与特朗普在G7峰会期间举行了约30分钟会谈，但会谈没有取得突破。石破茂在会后 对记者表示，任何协议都应该顾及到日本和美国两国的利益，目前还有双方看法不一致的部分，之后两 国将继续进行部长级别磋商。 石破茂同时强调，"汽车真的涉及重大国家利益。为坚守国家利益，我们将尽全力反复作出最大的努 力。"据当地媒体报道，日本要求美国取消或大幅降低对日本汽车的进口关税，但遭特朗普拒绝。日本 外务省人士透露，美国重视解决汽车对日贸易逆差问题，与日本提出的取消关税壁垒方案间的分歧十分 明显。 综合中新网、环球网消息，当地时间6月17日，日本首相石破茂宣布将参加24日在荷兰举行的北约峰 会。 日本要求美国全面撤销对汽车和钢铁等加征的关税以及所谓的"对等关税 ...

据智通财经报道，2025 年 6 月，美国在一系列贸易相关动作上有新动态。而这一切，要从近期中美之 间的重要会谈说起。 在过去的一段时间里，美国的关税政策就如同六月的天气，变幻莫测，让全球的投资者和贸易伙伴们都 摸不着头脑。从 4 月初开始，特朗普政府宣布了对数十国征收高额 "对等" 关税，这一消息瞬间如一颗 重磅炸弹投入全球经济的池塘，激起千层浪，全球股市纷纷巨震。可仅仅一周之后，剧情就来了个大反 转，美国又宣布实施 90 天的暂缓征收政策，期间关税降至 10%，这 90 天的暂缓期原定于 7 月 9 日截 止。 特朗普（资料图） 就在众人对美国这一政策走向充满疑惑的时候，中美之间的经贸高层会谈在伦敦举行。这次会谈备受全 球瞩目，毕竟中美作为世界两大经济体，双方之间的贸易关系走向影响着全球经济的格局。令人意外的 是，这次伦敦会谈取得了超出预期的成果。然而，就在中美刚刚谈完不久，美国首席谈判代表、财长贝 森特却做出了一个让人意想不到的举动。他匆匆从中美伦敦会谈提前回国，看似是要回国在国会作证， 可背后却有着更深层次的目的。 回到美国后，贝森特在国会筹款委员会透露了一个重大消息：特朗普政府愿意为 18 个正在谈 ...

【文/观察者网 王一】当地时间6月16日，日本首相石破茂和美国总统特朗普在七国集团（G7）峰会上 举行了30分钟的会晤，主要讨论关税问题，但双方未能达成一致。 《日经亚洲》18日分析指出，日本自恃是美国的盟友和最大的投资者，一上来就想争取特殊关税豁免的 态度，反而导致美国更加不愿松口。而日本原想在此次谈判中打"中国牌"，提议与美国在稀土、半导体 等领域加强合作，却没想到美国率先与中国达成了协议，导致日本失去了这一谈判筹码。 在会晤后的记者会上，石破茂表示，"现在仍然存在双方认识不一致的点，因此未能达成整体协议"。 日美首脑会谈未能就取消关税达成一致。视觉中国 "美国急于与中国谈判是日本的另一项误判，"日媒指出，作为谈判筹码之一，日本原本计划向美国提 议，双方在美国与中国存在紧张关系的领域进行合作，例如加强稀土和半导体供应链的建设。但美国先 与中国达成了协议，导致日本的提议不再那么有吸引力。 当被问及达成协议的时间框架时，石破茂表示："很难说何时能解决此事。" 汽车产业对日本经济至关重要。根据日本汽车工业协会的数据，8.3%的日本劳动力都从事汽车相关工 作，汽车业为日本贡献了约10%的GDP（国内生产总值）。联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recently signed UK-US Economic Prosperity Agreement has not fulfilled all prior commitments, particularly regarding tariffs on steel and pharmaceuticals, leading to concerns about its stability and enforceability [1][5][8]. Summary by Sections Agreement Details - The agreement provides a tariff quota of 100,000 vehicles per year for UK-produced cars, with a 10% tax rate, lower than the 25% imposed on other trade partners [4] - Import tariffs on UK aerospace products will be eliminated immediately under the WTO Civil Aircraft Agreement [4] - The agreement is seen as a symbol of strong UK-US relations, but there are still unresolved issues regarding steel and pharmaceutical tariffs [4][5] Tariff Negotiations - Steel and aluminum tariffs remain undecided, with the US Secretary of Commerce to evaluate the UK's compliance with supply chain security standards before setting quotas [5] - Ongoing negotiations for pharmaceutical tariff reductions depend on the results of the Section 232 investigation and the UK's adherence to supply chain security standards [5][6] Agricultural Trade - The agreement allows US farmers to export 13,000 metric tons of beef to the UK annually, a significant increase from the previous quota of 1,000 metric tons [6] - The UK will also grant a duty-free quota of 1.4 billion liters for US ethanol, which matches the UK's total annual demand for ethanol, raising concerns among domestic producers [6][7] Political and Economic Implications - The agreement has faced criticism in the UK for being a limited tariff arrangement rather than a comprehensive trade deal, with some political figures labeling it as insignificant [8] - The agreement lacks legal binding force, allowing either party to modify or withdraw at any time, which raises concerns about its implementation [1][5][8] Future Negotiations - The US is expected to pursue further trade negotiations with other countries, including Canada and the EU, but the complexity of these negotiations may limit the outcomes compared to the UK agreement [9]

新华社加拿大卡尔加里6月16日电 综述｜七国集团成员未能就贸易谈判取得突破 新华社记者林威 欧美贸易谈判也未能在峰会期间取得进展。法国总统马克龙、意大利总理梅洛尼、德国总理默茨此 前计划在峰会期间与美国就关税问题展开对话。 欧盟委员会首席发言人葆拉·皮尼奥16日对美国《政治报》表示，欧盟并未准备接受美国对欧盟出 口商品征收10%的基准关税。欧美贸易谈判仍在进行，目前尚未达成任何协议。欧盟自始至终反对美方 不合理和非法的关税。 观察人士此前预计，特朗普可能在峰会期间与加拿大签署一个贸易和安全协议，以此作为会议成果 之一。 参加七国集团峰会的日本首相石破茂当天也与特朗普举行会谈。这是特朗普宣布所谓"对等关税"后 两人首次会面。石破茂在会谈后的记者会上说，双方未能就取消关税达成协议。 此前，日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正已多次赴美，与美方就关税问题进行谈判。日本政府一直坚持 将"对等关税"和加征的汽车关税、钢铝关税等捆绑在一起进行谈判，要求美方全面取消这些不合理的关 税措施。 日本媒体和专家认为，汽车关税是日美贸易谈判的一大难点。汽车是日本的核心产业。2024年日本 输美汽车约137万辆，出口额占日本对美出口的三成左右。 ...

Group 1: Agreement Overview - The recently signed agreement between the US and UK is described as a "trivial small tariff agreement" by UK Conservative Party leader Badenoch, indicating its limited scope compared to previous commitments [1] - The agreement primarily focuses on tariff reductions for UK automotive and aerospace products, while steel and pharmaceutical tariffs remain under negotiation, leading to a narrower actual coverage than expected [1][5] - The agreement lacks legal binding force, allowing either party to modify or withdraw at any time, raising concerns about its stability and execution [1][8] Group 2: Automotive and Aerospace Tariffs - UK-produced cars will benefit from a tariff quota of 100,000 units annually at a 10% tax rate, which is lower than the 25% tariff imposed on other trade partners [3] - Import tariffs on UK aerospace products will be eliminated immediately upon publication in the Federal Register, aligning with the WTO Civil Aircraft Agreement [4] Group 3: Outstanding Issues - Tariff issues regarding steel and pharmaceuticals remain unresolved, with the US Secretary of Commerce set to evaluate the UK's compliance with supply chain security standards before establishing steel and aluminum tariff quotas [5][6] - The UK government aims for zero tariffs on core steel products, but negotiations are ongoing, and the implementation timeline is uncertain [6][8] Group 4: Agricultural Trade - The agreement allows US farmers to export 13,000 metric tons of beef to the UK annually, a significant increase from the previous quota of 1,000 metric tons, while maintaining strict food safety standards [7] - The UK will also provide a duty-free quota of 1.4 billion liters for US ethanol producers, which is equivalent to the UK's total annual ethanol demand, raising concerns among domestic producers [7] Group 5: Broader Trade Context - The agreement is viewed as a memorandum rather than a comprehensive trade deal, failing to meet the standards of a free trade agreement and violating WTO's most-favored-nation principle [8] - The slow progress of trade negotiations is highlighted, with the UK being the only country to reach such an agreement with the US so far [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the United States' approach to trade, particularly its emphasis on "reciprocal tariffs," which the author argues is a double standard that overlooks the significant service trade surplus the U.S. enjoys [3][5]. Trade Balance - The U.S. service trade surplus is projected to reach nearly $300 billion in 2024, highlighting a significant imbalance in how the U.S. discusses its trade position, focusing on goods trade deficits while ignoring service trade advantages [3]. - The U.S. often claims to be at a disadvantage in goods trade, yet fails to acknowledge its substantial gains in service trade, which is seen as a selective narrative [3][5]. Global Trade Dynamics - The global service industry now accounts for over two-thirds of GDP, with high-value services like finance and IT predominantly controlled by the U.S. and other developed nations, raising questions about the fairness of the U.S. trade narrative [5]. - The article suggests that the U.S. is not genuinely advocating for free trade but rather seeks to maintain a system that benefits itself while imposing restrictions on others [7]. International Reactions - The European Union, particularly Germany, is expressing concerns over unilateral trade actions and the need for stronger multilateral coordination to avoid a trade war, indicating a shift in sentiment among global partners [7]. - China's recent statements at the WTO are framed as a call for a more equitable global trade environment, challenging the notion that might makes right in international trade [9]. Future Implications - The article raises concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. trade strategy, questioning how long it can continue to operate under a logic that demands reciprocity while maintaining flexibility for itself [9].

Group 1 - The Japan-U.S. ministerial negotiations on tariffs have been ongoing for five rounds without reaching an agreement, with the sixth round scheduled to take place in Washington [1] - Japan's government has proposed a comprehensive plan to address China in an effort to appease the U.S. during negotiations [1][2] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa stated that discussions have made further progress but no consensus has been found, indicating a lack of significant outcomes from the latest round of talks [1][2] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. are complicated by significant differences in their objectives, with Japan seeking the removal of "reciprocal tariffs" while the U.S. insists on maintaining a 10% baseline tariff [2] - Japanese companies are projected to incur a total profit loss of approximately 2.6 trillion yen (around 179 billion) by the fiscal year 2025 due to U.S. tariffs, with the automotive sector being the most affected [2] - Japan's strategy includes offering to purchase U.S. liquefied natural gas, corn, and other products, as well as collaborating on semiconductor supply chains, in hopes of gaining concessions from the U.S. on tariff issues [3] Group 3 - Internal conflicts among U.S. officials have led to inefficiencies in the negotiation process, with disagreements causing confusion for the Japanese delegation regarding U.S. negotiation goals [4] - The Chinese government has expressed its stance on the negotiations, emphasizing that cooperation between nations should not harm third-party interests and advocating for fairness in tariff discussions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the Trump administration is willing to extend the 90-day tariff suspension on major trade partners beyond July 9, provided they show "good faith" in ongoing trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The Trump administration is currently negotiating with 18 "important trade partners" and is making efforts to reach agreements with these countries [1]. - The willingness to extend the tariff suspension suggests a potential shift in the administration's approach as the deadline approaches [3]. - The initial 90-day tariff suspension was announced on April 9, and the administration has indicated that agreements with six countries are imminent [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Historical Context - The administration's previous actions, such as imposing tariffs on over 70 countries, have led to significant market volatility, with a notable shift from imposing tariffs to suspending them [4]. - The term "TACO trade," which stands for "Trump Always Cancels Orders," has emerged in Wall Street to mock the administration's inconsistent trade strategies [4]. - Despite claims of reaching 90 agreements, most negotiations remain stalled, with only a temporary agreement with the UK being finalized [4]. Group 3: Future Implications - The U.S. Commerce Secretary has stated that there will be no further adjustments to the current tariff levels on China, indicating a lack of strength or willingness to impose additional tariffs [6]. - The ongoing negotiations are expected to continue, with both sides needing to invest more time and effort to reach a mutually acceptable consensus [8]. - The Trump administration is under pressure to avoid being labeled as the "worst president in history," which may influence its negotiation strategies moving forward [8].