Market Performance - The New York stock market opened higher on the 27th, with all three major indices closing up, marking new historical highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite [1] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6173.07 points, up 32.05 points or 0.52%, while the Nasdaq Composite closed at 20273.46 points, also up 105.55 points or 0.52% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 432.43 points to close at 43819.27 points, a gain of 1.00% [1] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan reported that the U.S. consumer confidence index rose from 52.2 in May to 60.7 in June, a month-over-month increase of 16.3% [2] - This increase in consumer confidence is attributed to a significant drop in inflation expectations, with one-year expectations falling from 5% [2] Economic Indicators - Personal income in the U.S. grew by only 0.4% month-over-month in May, below the expected 0.3% and previous value of 0.8% [2] - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.1%, not meeting the expected 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [2] Inflation Data - The personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.1% [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.7%, exceeding the expected 2.6%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3] Individual Stocks - Tesla's stock surged over 8% earlier in the week due to the successful launch of its autonomous taxi service in Austin, Texas, although it later experienced a slight decline [4] - Coinbase was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 in June, with a 44% increase, reaching its highest level since its IPO in 2021, before dropping 5.77% on the 27th [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues to show strong performance, with major indices reaching new historical closing highs despite geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations with Canada [1][2]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 432.43 points, or 1.00%, closing at 43819.27 points; the S&P 500 increased by 32.05 points, or 0.52%, to 6173.07 points; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points, or 0.52%, ending at 20273.46 points [1]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have both confirmed entry into a bull market, with the Nasdaq up over 20% since its low on April 8 [1]. Sector Performance - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, the consumer discretionary sector led gains, while the energy sector lagged [2]. - Nike's stock surged by 15.2%, significantly contributing to the index's performance, following better-than-expected revenue guidance [2]. Technology Stocks - Major technology stocks performed well, with Google and Amazon rising over 2%, and Nvidia and Meta increasing by more than 1% [3]. - Nvidia reached new highs, while Apple and Intel saw slight increases, and Microsoft and Tesla experienced minor pullbacks [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, with the core PCE index increasing by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3]. - Consumer confidence improved significantly, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rising to 60.7, the highest level in four months, reflecting better economic outlooks and reduced concerns about personal finances [3]. Market Expectations - Financial markets are adjusting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with a 76% probability of a rate cut in September and only a 19% chance for a cut in July [3]. Commodity Market - Gold prices fell by 1.6% to $3287.6 per ounce, while WTI crude oil rose by 0.43% to $65.52 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.16% to $66.80 per barrel [4].

对于何时降息，美联储内部"观望派"与"行动派"的争议公然摆上台面。 美联储主席鲍威尔在国会作证时对于7月降息的可能性有所"松口"，叠加两位美联储官员意外转向鸽 派，令市场嗅到了降息将至的气息。然而，市场的乐观情绪未能延续多久——次日，多位美联储官员就 集体"泼冷水"，强调需要更多数据确保贸易政策不会持续推高通胀。 美联储内部对于经济前景的分歧已然公开化，这与6月点阵图透露的信号不谋而合。从最新一期的美联 储利率"点阵图"来看，在19位官员中，有7位认为美联储今年不应该降息，有8位支持降息两次。从上述 数据来看，支持年内降息两次和不降息的人数几乎持平，可见美联储内部对经济形势判断呈现多元化特 征。 观望仍是主基调 为何美联储内部对于经济走势和政策应对的分歧如此之大？美联储究竟在观望什么？ 业内人士普遍认为，美联储降息的主要掣肘仍在于贸易政策的不确定性，需要等待更为明确的数据，以 判断贸易政策对通胀的"冲击"程度。 业内人士普遍认为，在贸易政策对通胀的"冲击"尚未完全显现之前，美联储仍有理由"静观其变"。多重 因素交织之下，市场押注9月开启降息的可能性逐步上升。 美联储内部"裂痕"加深 继美联储"明星"理事的鸽派 ...

文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强 大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投 资有风险，盈亏自负。 黄金昨日呈现冲高回落走势，日线收出十字星形态。尽管此前收出小阳线，但反弹力度不足且缺乏持续性， 未能形成有效上行突破，表明黄金自3452高点以来的调整趋势尚未完结，日内仍存下行空间。当前行情呈现 阴跌特征，不宜期待价格大幅反弹后进场做空——反弹幅度扩大会削弱下行动能。周五亚市早盘金价延续跌 势，逐步逼近3280支撑位，该区域支撑结构密集，直接追空风险较高，目前翁富豪建议维持反弹做空策略， 反弹至3297-3302区域做空，止损在3310，目标看向3290-3270 周五（6月27日）北京时间20:30，美国商务部经济分析局发布5月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，该数据作 为美联储核心通胀监测指标，揭示了美国经济在通胀压力与消费动能间的博弈态势。叠加关税政策预期引发 的市场避险情绪，投资者对美联储货币政策路径的预期呈现分化。数据公布后，金融市场即时响应：美元指 数短线回落约10个基点，折射市场对通胀 ...

巴西财长Haddad：通胀正在下降，雷亚尔兑美元汇率正在走强。 ...

卢特尼克补充说，各国将在7月9日被归入"适当的类别"。不过，特朗普也可能延长期限，以便有更多谈 判时间。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特同样向媒体表示，特朗普政府可能会"签署"大约十几项贸易协议，在9月1 日美国劳动节假期前"完成"贸易谈判。但贝森特没有透露可能达成协议的国家。 5月通胀指标超预期 备受美联储青睐的通胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数表现略超预期。美国商务部公布数据显 示：美国5月PCE指数同比增长2.3%，预期2.3%；美国5月核心PCE指数同比增长2.68%，预期2.6%，创 2025年2月以来新高。 在多个贸易协议达成的利好刺激下，周五美国开盘后持续上涨。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数创出历史 新高。 与此同时，美国经济前景愈发复杂。备受青睐的通胀指标PCE表现超预期，特朗普政府经济政策带来的 不确定性正日益影响经济增长前景。 多个贸易协议即将达成 美国商务部长卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）周五表示，白宫即将与十个主要贸易伙伴达成一系列协议。 卢特尼克在接受采访时还表示，特朗普准备在未来两周内敲定一系列贸易协议，以配合他7月9日恢复高 关税的最后期限。特朗普还表示，如果无法及时 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs [1][11] - The S&P 500 index is reported at 6178.3 points, up 0.59%, while the Nasdaq index is at 20294.93 points, up 0.64% [11] - The technology sector is leading the market recovery, with the S&P 500 index rising over 20% since its low on April 8 [11][12] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is facing increasing complexity, with the PCE inflation indicator exceeding expectations [2][6] - The PCE index for May shows a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, while the core PCE index rose by 2.68%, the highest since February 2025 [7][8] - Economists predict that inflation may rise in the coming months as higher import tariffs are passed on to consumers [8] Group 3 - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the White House is close to finalizing trade agreements with ten major trading partners [4][5] - The Trump administration aims to complete these trade negotiations before the Labor Day holiday on September 1 [5] - If agreements are not reached in time, Trump may issue letters to specify trade terms directly [4] Group 4 - Nike's stock surged by 14% after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, despite a 12% year-over-year revenue decline [13] - Nike's revenue for the quarter was $11.1 billion, exceeding market expectations of $10.72 billion [13] - The company indicated that the trend of declining annual sales is beginning to ease, suggesting the effectiveness of CEO Elliott Hill's strategic initiatives [13]

周五，美联储青睐的通胀指标出炉。 美国5月核心PCE物价指数高于预期，年通胀率进一步偏离美联储2%目标。 数据公布后，市场反应平淡。周五美股三大股指高开，道指现涨0.87%，标普500指数涨0.6%，纳指涨0.55%。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标普500指数 | 6177.66 | +36.64 | +0.60% | | .SPX | | | | | 道琼斯指数 | 43764.03 | +377.19 | +0.87% | | .DJI | | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 20279.75 | +111.84 | +0.55% | | .IXIC | | | | 美元指数在短线走低后上扬，现涨0.06%报97.354。 | ■ USDindex 分时 多日 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K 1分 3分 5分 10分 15分 30分 1小时 : 1天:1分K 。 显示▽ ② | | --- | | + ピッピット・ | 温和上升 数据显示，5月美国个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数环比上涨0.1%，同比上涨2.3%，符合市场预期。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in 2025 are more likely to be driven by inflation rather than unemployment rates, as the labor market may not directly lead to rising unemployment due to immigration policies affecting labor growth [2][3] - The U.S. economy is expected to enter the second half of 2025 on an unstable foundation, with the first quarter's GDP contraction exceeding initial estimates and a low-quality rebound in the second quarter influenced by reduced trade deficits and cautious consumer and business spending [2][3] - The upcoming U.S. core PCE price index is viewed as a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with weak performance potentially reinforcing a dovish stance and increasing downward pressure on the dollar [1][2] Group 2 - If the U.S. adopts more closed trade policies, the Eurozone could become the largest economy outside the U.S., attracting more investment interest towards the Euro [2] - Geopolitical tensions easing have nearly completely offset the temporary support the dollar received as a safe-haven asset, while the Euro is expected to benefit from ongoing pessimism surrounding the dollar [2] - Despite $250 billion to $300 billion in tariff revenues, the rising debt levels in the U.S. are unlikely to be alleviated in the short term, as the government is not expected to implement significant tax increases or spending cuts [3]

Group 1 - France's June CPI rose for the first time this year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, surpassing expectations [1] - Service inflation accelerated to 2.4%, while food inflation slightly increased to 1.4%, and energy prices saw a narrower decline of 6.9% [1] - The rise in inflation is attributed to geopolitical tensions affecting prices, particularly in the Middle East, impacting major economies in the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) completed its eighth rate cut since June last year, as inflation had been cooling earlier in the year [2] - ECB officials expressed satisfaction with the current trajectory of consumer prices, which have decreased from record highs to just below the 2% target [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation and U.S. trade policies adds complexity to the economic outlook, prompting the ECB to maintain flexibility in its monetary policy [2]