Group 1 - Trump's recent announcement offers a "get out of jail free card" for countries imposing tariffs on China, aiming to reshape global trade dynamics [1] - The only country supporting Trump is the UK, while others like the EU, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia show a negative attitude towards his approach [3] - Trump's strategy to pressure allies into imposing tariffs on China has seen limited success, particularly with the EU hesitating to agree due to its significant trade ties with China [5][8] Group 2 - Countries are reluctant to respond to Trump's call for tariffs on China due to the importance of the Chinese market for their economies, with significant exports at stake [8] - China's strong stance against any actions that harm its interests has been made clear, with potential retaliatory measures that could impact global supply chains [8][10] - Trump's credibility is questioned due to past actions, leading countries to avoid jeopardizing their relationships with China for uncertain short-term gains [8][12] Group 3 - The global trade situation remains unstable, with China showing resilience against U.S. pressure while remaining open to negotiations [10][19] - Trump's global trade strategy appears to be at an impasse, as allies are unwilling to cooperate, and domestic pressures are mounting [21] - Countries are cautious about engaging in conflict with China, recognizing the potential negative consequences of such actions [19][22]

法院重挫特朗普关税大棋，IEEPA权力边界首次遭遇司法挑战。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月28日， 美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普越权 ，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征 收全面关税。 消息传出后，美股三大指数期货迅速拉涨，集体涨超1%。 现货黄金短线走低30美元，日内跌幅达0.9%，现报3259美元/盎司。 美元指数涨超0.5%。 几天后，这"少有人提及"的利好兑现了。 被忽视的重大利好浮出水面 华尔街见闻此前 就曾指出，当所有人将注意力集中在6月1日的关税大限、特朗普与欧盟的"贸易摊牌"时，美国国际贸易法院的这一裁决可能是市场普遍忽视的 潜在利好。 据媒体报道， 位于曼哈顿的美国国际贸易法院在周三的裁决中明确指出，特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)宣布贸易逆差为"国家紧急状态"并加征 关税的做法，超出了法律授权范围。 法院强调， 宪法明确赋予国会监管对外贸易的专属权力，而总统的紧急权力并不能凌驾于此。 这一裁决源于两起诉讼：一是由无党派组织Liberty Justice Center代表五家小型美国企业提起的诉讼，另一则由包括俄勒冈州在内的13个州联合发起 ...

Market Performance - Major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 244.95 points (0.58%) at 42098.70, Nasdaq down 98.23 points (0.51%) at 19100.94, and S&P 500 down 32.99 points (0.56%) at 5888.55 [1] - European indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down 222.44 points (0.92%) at 24035.84, UK's FTSE 100 down 51.10 points (0.58%) at 8726.95, and France's CAC40 down 38.69 points (0.49%) at 7788.10 [1] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.35% to 99.874, with the euro at 1.1294 USD and the pound at 1.3470 USD [2] - Gold prices fell, with COMEX gold futures down 0.26% at 3291.80 USD/ounce [2] - Oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures up 1.56% at 61.84 USD per barrel and Brent crude up 1.26% at 64.90 USD per barrel [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments due to increased economic uncertainty, with officials noting rising risks of unemployment and inflation [4] - The Fed warned that the loss of the "safe haven" status of U.S. assets due to trade tensions could have long-term negative impacts on the economy [5] Company-Specific News - Nvidia reported Q1 revenue of 44.1 billion USD, a 69% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations of 43.1 billion USD [8] - Apple plans to rename its operating systems to use year-based identifiers instead of version numbers, aiming for brand consistency [9] - Morgan Stanley downgraded Baidu's target price from 100 USD to 90 USD [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened slightly higher on May 28, with the Dow Jones up 0.05%, S&P 500 up 0.01%, and Nasdaq down 0.03% [1] - Investor focus has shifted from trade war tensions to the latest U.S. tax reform bill, with significant attention on Nvidia's upcoming earnings report [1][10] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia down 0.2% ahead of its earnings release [1] Group 2: Trade War Developments - Recent signals indicate a de-escalation in the U.S. trade war, including President Trump's postponement of high tariffs on the EU [5] - The ASEAN leaders expressed concerns over the uncertainty brought by U.S. tariffs and emphasized the need for trade diversification [5] - Current baseline tariffs are at 10%, with potential reductions for countries providing favorable conditions [5] Group 3: Tax Reform Concerns - The latest U.S. tax reform bill is projected to increase the deficit by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, with $2.2 trillion (approximately 58%) occurring in the first five years [8] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley highlight that the deficit will remain above 6% of GDP in the coming years, with the tax reform contributing to this increase [9] Group 4: Nvidia's Earnings Expectations - Nvidia is set to release its earnings report, with analysts expecting revenue of $43.28 billion for the quarter, a year-over-year growth of 66% [11] - The anticipated net profit is around $19 billion, reflecting a 31% increase, although this growth rate is significantly lower than the previous year's 260% [11] - Market attention is on the supply situation of Nvidia's new Blackwell chips and its performance in the Middle East and China [11]

其实近几天，普京政府压力确实不小：一方面，特朗普又跟普京通电话了，通话时间超过两个多小时，而后普京不得不 答应会跟乌克兰讨论停止冲突的事。明眼人都看出来了：如果这次普京再不下台阶，特朗普必然会对俄罗斯进行全面制 裁。另一方面，泽连斯基仍然不肯妥协，咬死不肯从乌东四州撤军。在这种情况下，普京要想保证特别军事行动的胜利 果实，就必须祈求俄罗斯各行各业能再挺住一阵，俄国内现在无论如何都不能出大问题。所以，这个时候与中国的贸易 往来就显得格外重要。 一段时间以来，全球经济受到债务攀升、贸易和金融失衡以及美国霸权地位的困扰。在此背景下，大国之间的竞争加 剧，一些国家试图以牺牲他国利益为代价来解决系统性矛盾。经济手段仍然是对边缘经济体施压的最重要工具，包括不 平等贸易，引发汇率剧烈变动、利率过高和货币供应量收缩的货币政策，限制高附加值产业发展等。早先俄罗斯科学院 就与中国同行一起模拟了相互加征关税的影响。当时的结论同现在一样，即贸易战中没有绝对赢家，只有损失程度不同 的输家。 诺瓦克（资料图） 据中国基金报报道，中国外交部发言人近日主持例行记者会。有记者提问：欧盟和英国近日分别宣布对俄罗斯实施新一 轮制裁，重点针对俄罗斯 ...

文︱陆弃 在全球经济复杂动荡的背景下，加拿大这颗北美经济的重要棋子正显露出疲态。彭博社最新调查显示， 加拿大经济或已步入技术性衰退的边缘，二季度经济预计按年率萎缩1%，紧接着第三季度继续收缩 0.1%。这一趋势背后，是美国与加拿大之间日益激烈的贸易摩擦所带来的冲击，出口骤减、失业率上 升、家庭消费萎缩以及房地产市场降温，成为加国经济疲软的鲜明写照。 失业率的攀升预示着经济滑坡的传导效应正逐步加深。调查显示，下半年失业率可能上升至7.2%，这 是加拿大近年来罕见的高位水平。劳动力市场紧张，直接影响居民消费信心。消费是经济的"半壁江 山"，消费者变得谨慎，自然会拖累整体经济表现。与此同时，加拿大房地产市场也在阴影笼罩下明显 降温，房价与成交量双双下跌，住房开工量预计将进一步减少，房地产作为经济重要支柱的作用逐渐削 弱。 通胀压力的存在令加央行面临两难抉择。当前通胀高于央行2%的目标水平，第三、四季度通胀预期分 别为2.1%与2.2%。在如此背景下，加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆虽称调整利率可能性不大，但市场对于货 币政策前景仍然保持高度关注。央行试图在稳增长与控通胀间寻求平衡，但贸易摩擦所带来的不确定 性，极大限制了货币 ...

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/5/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1782.000 -80.2↓ EC次主力收盘价 2048.4 | | -78.00↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2506-EC2508价差 | -266.40 -22.90↓ EC2506-EC2510价差 398.70 | | -63.80↓ | | EC合约基差 | -534.95 +59.50↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 17386 0↑ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1247.05 -18.25↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,719.79 | | 273.43↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1586.12 106.73↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1107.40 2.52↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,392.61 | | -37.74↓ | ...

Core Viewpoint - China's selling of US Treasury bonds is putting significant pressure on the US government, forcing President Trump to reconsider his stance towards China amid the ongoing trade negotiations [1][10][17] Group 1: Financial Impact - The US Treasury is facing a daily interest expense of $3 billion, while China's holdings of $765.4 billion in US debt are depreciating by 1% daily [2][5] - The short positions on 10-year US Treasuries have surged to levels not seen since 2008, with $3.8 trillion in capital fleeing from dollar assets [2][10] - If China continues to reduce its US debt holdings by 5%, the Pentagon may need to cut its budget for two aircraft carrier battle groups next year [7][10] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The recent 13% appreciation of the euro against the dollar threatens the foundation of the petrodollar system [4][10] - China's share of global oil trade settled in yuan has increased to 2.3%, a 15-fold increase from three years ago [5][10] - The Chinese government is allowing companies to use iron ore and copper concentrate as collateral for loans in yuan, facilitating bypassing the dollar in commodity transactions [9][10] Group 3: Strategic Moves - The negotiations in Geneva include a clause where China demands recognition of the yuan's special drawing rights, which would effectively grant the yuan an "international passport" [7][10] - China's reduction of US debt holdings is part of a broader strategy to internationalize the yuan and challenge the dollar's dominance [14][15] - The ongoing trade war has transformed into a financial battle, with the key to victory being the internationalization of local currencies [14][15]

Group 1 - The uncertainty brought by President Trump's fluctuating tariff measures has been exaggerated, as many companies continue to push forward with their investment plans despite concerns [1] - Approximately 71% of companies in the Russell 3000 index that provided capital expenditure guidance maintained their 2024 capital expenditure guidance, with 8.5% raising it and only 3% withdrawing it [1] - The industrial sector has the highest number of companies maintaining capital expenditure plans during this earnings season, indicating resilience in investment despite external pressures [1] Group 2 - Economic data shows mixed signals, with manufacturing activity in the U.S. experiencing its largest contraction in five months due to tariffs and reduced orders, reflecting the negative impact of Trump's tariff measures [2] - Companies like Snap-on Inc. are adjusting their supply chains and maintaining capital expenditures, with expectations of a 19% increase in capital spending this year [2] - Tech giants such as Alphabet and Meta have reaffirmed or raised their capital expenditure guidance for the year, indicating continued investment in growth despite market uncertainties [2] Group 3 - Smaller companies are also following the trend of maintaining investment, as seen with Apptronik raising $350 million to expand production of humanoid robots, supported by significant orders from domestic manufacturers [3] - The investment landscape remains vibrant, with strong demand and a sense of optimism among investors, as highlighted by the orders received by Apptronik [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing tensions between the US and China regarding trade policies, with US officials expressing fear over the impact of tariffs on American businesses and the economy [1][3] - US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick acknowledged the pain caused by tariffs, indicating that both he and President Trump are concerned about the economic repercussions, yet they believe the trade battle is necessary [1] - The US economy has shown signs of contraction, with a reported 0.3% decline in GDP for Q1 2025, attributed to worsening net exports and reduced federal spending, indicating that the trade war is adversely affecting domestic economic growth [3] Group 2 - Recent communications between US and Chinese officials suggest a willingness to maintain dialogue and cooperation, with both sides recognizing the importance of their bilateral economic relationship [5] - The establishment of a regular communication mechanism for trade discussions indicates a move towards institutionalizing negotiations, which could enhance communication efficiency and reduce the risk of misjudgments [5] - Despite the appearance of progress, underlying tensions remain, as President Trump has been pressured to make concessions on tariffs, reflecting the significant influence of the Chinese economy on the US [7]