1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - For investors, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.90%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.16%. International and domestic gold prices showed varying degrees of increase, such as the Comex gold main contract closing price rising 0.99% from the previous day and 3.41% from last week [1][2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, stagflation risks in the US economy, and strong employment and inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, the prospect of the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, and the EU is considering using the "nuclear option" to counter the US. China and the US will restart trade talks in Sweden next week [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US economic data has weakened, the start of single - family homes has dropped to the lowest level in 11 months, and building permits have also decreased significantly. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions have increased, while some inventories have decreased, such as the Comex gold inventory decreasing by 1.08% compared to last week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Gold Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, showing changes in positions of different members [3]. Silver - **Price Performance**: International and domestic silver prices also showed certain trends. For example, the Comex silver main contract closing price rose 1.07% from the previous day and 4.41% from last week [5]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: The price of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver and some domestic silver positions have changed, and the visible inventory has decreased slightly [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Silver Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, with changes in positions of different members [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [7]. - **US Economic Data**: Various economic indicators such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, and trade have shown different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield has decreased, and the GDP annualized growth rate has decreased [9]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world remain stable. The proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed, and the gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio has increased. Geopolitical risk and VIX indices have decreased, and the CRB commodity index has shown a slight change [10]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates in the future is presented, showing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate adjustment [11].

Group 1 - Nokia has lowered its profit guidance for 2025 due to a weaker dollar and trade tariff issues, now expecting operating profit between €1.6 billion and €2.1 billion, down from a previous forecast of €1.9 billion to €2.4 billion [1] - The adjustment in guidance highlights the impact of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, affecting supply chains and economic conditions across various industries, particularly for network equipment manufacturers like Nokia and Ericsson [1] - Nokia's stock price fell by 8.2% to €3.77 in Helsinki, marking the largest intraday drop since April 24, while its US shares dropped by 6.11% [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates a loss of approximately €230 million due to currency fluctuations, particularly the dollar exchange rate, and expects tariffs to reduce its annual operating profit by €50 million to €80 million [1] - For the second quarter, Nokia estimates net sales of about €4.55 billion, showing slight growth year-on-year but falling short of analyst expectations of €4.8 billion [2] - Citigroup analyst Andrew Gardiner noted that while market sentiment may be negatively affected, the primary reasons being currency and tariff risks may not be as severe as potential demand or profit issues [2]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/7/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 2239.700 | -36.4↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1537 | -42.90↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | 702.70 | +1.00↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 537.90 | -3.10↓ | | EC合约基差 | 160.80 | +10.00↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 11039 | -1354↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2400.50 | -21.44↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1,301.81 | 35.22↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a five-week high, driven by ongoing trade war concerns, suggesting that safe-haven demand may continue to support bullish trends in the market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The current market conditions indicate that the trade war is creating uncertainty, which typically leads to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Real-time analysis of order flow is being conducted to identify potential entry signals for investors looking to capitalize on the rising gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The EU is adopting a tougher stance against the US in response to President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, marking a significant shift from negotiation to potential retaliation [1][2]. Group 1: EU's Response Strategy - Germany and France are leading efforts to unify EU member states in support of retaliatory measures against US tariffs, moving from a previously conciliatory approach to a more aggressive stance [2]. - The EU is considering the activation of the "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI), described as a "trade nuclear weapon," which would allow the EU to restrict US companies from participating in EU government procurement and limit trade between the US and EU [3]. Group 2: Retaliatory Measures - If the US proceeds with the planned tariff increase, the EU is prepared to implement a first round of retaliatory tariffs on approximately €21 billion worth of US products, including chicken and jeans, starting August 6 [4]. - A second round of retaliatory measures is being prepared, targeting around €72 billion worth of US goods, including Boeing aircraft and bourbon whiskey, with a vote planned before August 6 [4]. - The EU is also developing a third round of measures aimed at the service sector, which may include taxes on digital services and online advertising revenue [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of the EU's response to US tariff policies, which has led to fluctuations in silver prices, with spot silver closing at $39.29 per ounce, up 0.94% on July 22 [1][2] - The latest data from the CFTC indicates that silver ETF holdings increased to 15,158.37 tons as of July 22, reflecting a rise of 152.58 tons from the previous day, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - The EU is considering using its "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) against the US, which may involve retaliatory measures such as restricting US companies' access to the EU financial services market and public procurement projects [2][3] Group 2 - The ACI is designed to allow the EU to retaliate against third countries that attempt to coerce member states through economic means, potentially affecting a market worth €2 trillion annually [3] - The EU has prepared a set of tariff measures targeting $24.5 billion worth of US goods, with further evaluations on imposing additional measures on $72 billion worth of US exports due to failed negotiations [3] - Silver prices are showing strong bullish momentum, with potential targets of $39.50 and $40.00 if the price breaks above the annual high of $39.12, while key support levels are identified at $38.50 and $37.30 [4]

金十数据7月23日讯，悉尼InTouch资本市场外汇分析师Sean Callow表示，对日本而言，达成美日贸易协 议的最大利好在于特朗普转移贸易战火力。所谓5500亿美元投资更像是政治数字，短期对市场影响有 限。美日汇率仍将维持与日股的常规正相关性，目前可能会小幅走高。 分析师：美日贸易协议最大利好在于转移贸易战焦点 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Commodity Market Trends**: Affected by factors such as "anti - involution" policies, overall commodity sentiment is currently strong, but external factors like potential August trade war risks need attention. Different commodities show diverse trends due to their own supply - demand fundamentals [37][46][81]. - **Supply - Demand Dynamics**: In general, many commodities face supply - demand imbalances. Some have increasing supply pressure, while demand may be in the off - season or face challenges from various factors [37][46][81]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PX, PTA, MEG) - **PX**: Supply - demand remains tight. Domestic device operating rates are decreasing, and PTA operating rates are rising. It is recommended to take a long PX and short EB/EG position and conduct rolling long on the monthly spread [6][10]. - **PTA**: Unilateral trend is strong. Due to increased downstream polyester procurement enthusiasm, it is advisable to take a long PTA and short PF position [10]. - **MEG**: Unilateral trend turns strong, and a reverse spread operation for the 9 - 1 monthly spread is recommended. The increase in coal prices affects coal - chemical products [10]. 3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: Shows a volatile trend. Although futures prices have increased and trading volume has expanded, the tire industry is facing over - supply and price competition, and the overall market lacks strong upward momentum [11][12][15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves up. In the short - term, it is driven by policy expectations, raw material price stability, and inventory reduction. However, in the medium - term, supply increases may limit price elasticity [18][20]. 3.3 Asphalt - It fluctuates repeatedly. Production has decreased, factory inventories have decreased, and social inventories have slightly increased. Market trends are mainly affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships [21][29][35]. 3.4 Polyolefins (LLDPE, PP) - **LLDPE**: Ranges within a certain interval. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand support is weak. Although inventory is currently low, it is gradually moving towards a state of inventory accumulation [36][37]. - **PP**: Spot prices fluctuate, and trading is light. Futures prices have a certain impact on the spot market, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [41][42]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - The rebound is difficult to sustain. Supply pressure will gradually increase, but export orders can offset some of the new production capacity. Demand is in the off - season, and although there is cost support, the price increase momentum is insufficient [44][46]. 3.6 Pulp - It fluctuates widely. The spot market is weak, with high port inventories and sluggish demand. The paper pulp market is affected by general commodity price increases, but the follow - up of the spot market is limited [49][51]. 3.7 Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Driven by the strong futures market, the price of the original sheet has increased slightly, and the delivery of futures merchants is relatively active [53][54]. 3.8 Methanol - It runs strongly. Supported by macro - policies and expectations of olefin external procurement, the market sentiment is positive. Although the traditional downstream demand has not improved significantly, the short - term market may maintain a stable and strong trend [56][59]. 3.9 Urea - The spot price stabilizes, and the upward space is narrowing. The short - term fundamentals have little impact on prices, mainly relying on policy - driven speculation. Supply has maintenance plans, and demand has export support, but domestic agricultural demand is coming to an end [61][63]. 3.10 Styrene - It is a short - position allocation under strong sentiment. Currently in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, it is recommended to focus on positions that compress styrene profits [64][65]. 3.11 Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The market is stable with slight fluctuations, device operation is relatively stable, and downstream demand is flat [66]. 3.12 LPG - It shows a short - term weak and volatile trend. PDH and other industrial operating rates have increased, and price spreads have changed. Attention should be paid to device maintenance plans and international price expectations [68][70][77]. 3.13 PVC - The rebound is difficult to sustain. Although affected by policy expectations, the supply - demand contradiction in the spot market persists. High production and high inventory structures are difficult to change in the short - term [80][81]. 3.14 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Continues to decline, and the short - term weakness is difficult to change. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Shows a weak and volatile trend at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market rebounds slightly [83]. 3.15 Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is recommended to hold short positions for the October contract and reverse spreads for the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 contracts. Freight rates show different trends, and attention should be paid to market supply - demand and shipping capacity changes [85].

Group 1 - Canada imposed significant tariffs and quotas on Chinese steel imports, including a 25% tariff, a 50% quota reduction, and a 50% penalty tax [1][4][9] - The U.S. steel imports account for 50% of Canada's steel imports and enjoy zero tariffs, while Chinese steel, which only accounts for 10%, is targeted for harsh penalties [11][24] - The Canadian government, facing a trade deficit of CAD 7.1 billion and a 15.7% drop in steel exports, is under pressure to find a scapegoat for its economic troubles [6][4][24] Group 2 - The Canadian government's digital services tax has negatively impacted U.S. tech giants, leading to a backlash from the U.S. and forcing Canada to navigate a delicate trade relationship [4][20] - The steel industry in Canada is struggling, with over 40,000 jobs at risk, prompting the government to shift blame to China rather than addressing U.S. trade policies [7][24] - The Canadian steel producers' association supports the government's actions against China, believing it will help regain market share [9][24] Group 3 - China's response to Canada's tariffs included imposing a 100% tariff on Canadian canola and halting large-scale imports, significantly impacting Canadian farmers [33][31] - Canada is heavily reliant on China for its canola exports, with 70% of its canola being sold to China, making the agricultural sector vulnerable to trade disputes [29][31] - The crisis in the canola industry has led to financial distress for farmers, with unsold products and plummeting prices [35][33] Group 4 - The trade tensions have resulted in a mixed impact on Canadian stock markets, with steel stocks rising while agricultural sectors face declines [54][52] - The Canadian government's approach to trade, particularly its targeting of China, is seen as shortsighted and detrimental to its own economic interests [51][56] - The overall economic landscape in Canada is shifting, with potential long-term consequences for both the steel and agricultural industries due to the ongoing trade disputes [58][56]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical struggle over energy security has intensified, particularly between the U.S. and China, with significant implications for global oil markets and trade dynamics [1][3][10]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Responses - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has threatened to impose up to 100% secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, which has caused significant volatility in global energy markets [3][6]. - Trump's ultimatum to Russia regarding oil imports aims to cut off funding for the ongoing conflict, with a deadline set for August 1 [1][6]. - The U.S. government's hardline stance has been met with skepticism, as analysts warn that such tariffs could lead to a new trade war and increase inflation in the U.S. [6][10]. Group 2: China's Position and Strategy - China has firmly stated its commitment to maintaining energy cooperation with Russia, with projected imports of Russian oil reaching $76.4 billion in 2024, accounting for 30% of its total oil imports [5]. - The Chinese government has drawn a clear line against unilateral sanctions and has emphasized the importance of national sovereignty in its energy dealings [5][10]. - China's energy strategy includes significant investments in Russian projects, such as the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline and Arctic LNG projects, which rely on Chinese funding and technology [5][10]. Group 3: Global Energy Market Dynamics - The geopolitical tensions are reshaping the global energy landscape, with a shift towards a multipolar energy structure involving China, Russia, and Iran [10]. - Emerging market countries are increasingly resistant to U.S. sanctions, with nations like Turkey, Hungary, and Serbia continuing to import Russian oil [10]. - Analysts suggest that the U.S. strategy may backfire, as high oil prices resulting from sanctions could contradict political commitments to control inflation [6][10].