Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index will undergo changes, increasing its constituent stocks from 88 to 90, with the inclusion of Ningde Times, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Laopu Gold, while Zhongsheng Holdings will be removed. This change will take effect on March 9, 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: Index Changes - The Hang Seng Index will increase its constituent stocks from 88 to 90, adding Ningde Times (03750.HK), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK), and Laopu Gold (06181.HK), while removing Zhongsheng Holdings [1][6]. - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will maintain 50 stocks, adding Beike (02423.HK) and Horizon Robotics (09660.HK), while removing China Resources Beer (00291.HK) and Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) [2][7]. - The Hang Seng Composite Index will increase from 507 to 532 stocks, removing 28 stocks and adding 53 new ones, including East Asia Bank, Rusal, and JD Industrial [2][7]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Despite recent adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly with major stocks like Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba experiencing significant declines, institutional and investor expectations for the market remain high, with continued investments in related ETFs [1][6]. - Recent liquidity shocks have affected the technology sector, but the fundamental outlook remains unchanged, suggesting a potential rebound as the market stabilizes [3][8]. - The consumer sector in Hong Kong is expected to benefit from improving economic conditions, with traditional industries undergoing transformation and leading to potential valuation recovery [5][9].

Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.17% to $5050.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.98% to $77.180 per ounce [2] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.10%, the Nasdaq down 0.22%, and the S&P 500 up 0.05%. Notably, major tech stocks like Apple and Nvidia fell over 2% [3] Domestic Metal Market - The domestic metal market experienced a general decline before the Spring Festival, with significant drops in prices for tin and silver. Specifically, Shanghai gold futures fell by 1.61% to 1110.10 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures dropped by 5.52% to 19782 yuan per kilogram [4][6] - The decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to weakened market sentiment and risk appetite, exacerbated by a significant drop in U.S. stocks [6] Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. This data alleviated concerns about a deteriorating job market and reduced the perceived necessity for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the short term [7] - However, the total projected job growth for 2025 was revised down by 898,000, indicating that one month's data may not be sufficient to determine a trend reversal in the job market [7] Gold and Silver Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the gold and silver markets are currently in a "rebalancing" phase, with prices expected to remain volatile in the short term. However, long-term factors such as high global debt and geopolitical tensions are likely to support upward price movements for gold and silver [8] - The upcoming U.S. PCE and GDP data during the holiday period are anticipated to significantly influence market pricing for U.S. economic conditions and inflation [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23] Core Insights - The company's revenue increased by 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 27.5 billion yuan, while the Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 11% to 7.07 billion yuan due to investment losses of 1.7 billion yuan [10][11] - The deferred revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, indicating a healthy cash flow status and reflecting changes in the game structure [2][15] - The company continues to expand its global presence, with successful launches of mobile games like "逆水寒" and "燕云十六声," which have attracted over 80 million players globally [2][18] Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the online gaming business generated 21.3 billion yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, while the overall gross margin improved to 64.2%, up 3 percentage points [10][11] - The total operating expense ratio was 34%, with a sales expense ratio of 14%, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [11] Game Development and AI Impact - The company is focusing on integrating AI tools to enhance creative content, with a shift in the core barriers to entry for commercial games towards integration capabilities [3][18] - Upcoming game releases include "遗忘之海" and "无限大," which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [23] Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.6 billion, 44.7 billion, and 48 billion yuan respectively, with slight downward adjustments of 5%, 4%, and 0% [23][28]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a defensive adjustment ahead of the holiday, with increased capital speculation, indicating preparation for new capital inflows post-holiday [2][11][13] - Major indices closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.26% at 4082.07 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.57% at 3275.96 points, reflecting a general downward trend [4] Sector Performance - Resource and technology stocks led the decline, with significant drops in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and oil and petrochemicals, all falling over 3% [5][8] - Conversely, sectors like aerospace equipment and film and animation showed positive performance, indicating sector-specific resilience [5] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - Trading volume decreased significantly, with a total daily turnover of 161.9 billion yuan, marking a drop below 2 trillion yuan across the three major markets [4][7] - The market sentiment is cautious, with a notable retreat of leveraged funds as investors seek to avoid risks associated with the long holiday [12][13] Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on technology growth sectors, particularly AI and power equipment, which are expected to benefit from global capital expenditure expansion and domestic infrastructure investments [16][17] - There is a recommendation to adopt a balanced investment strategy, combining offensive positions in technology with defensive assets like high-dividend stocks to mitigate volatility [17]

Group 1 - Tencent has launched a voice input feature for its WeChat desktop application, compatible with both Windows and macOS, available in version 4.1.7 and above [3] - ByteDance is in talks to sell its gaming subsidiary, Mu Tong Technology, to Saudi Savvy Games Group, with the deal valued between $6 billion and $7 billion, potentially closing this quarter [5] - Anta Sports has received written approval from shareholders for the acquisition of a 29.06% stake in Puma, with the transaction progressing as planned [7] Group 2 - The AI-driven short drama production costs only 25% of traditional live-action dramas, with a significant increase in popularity as indicated by a rise in "top 100 rate" from 7% to 38% [7] - Microsoft executives predict that most white-collar jobs could be fully automated within the next 12 to 18 months, raising concerns about job displacement due to AI [13] - Xiaomi has completed the delivery of the last unit of its first-generation SU7, with plans for the next generation to be launched in April [13] Group 3 - PayPay, a subsidiary of SoftBank, has officially submitted its IPO application in the U.S., reporting a profit of 103.3 billion yen and revenue of 278.5 billion yen for the nine months ending December 31 [18] - Stark Defence, a German drone manufacturing startup, has achieved a valuation exceeding 1 billion euros following a recent funding round [18] - Didero, an industrial AI startup, has raised $30 million in Series A funding to enhance global supply chain procurement processes [18]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "folk historical enthusiasm" in China reflects societal progress, as people seek cultural engagement after basic needs are met, highlighting a contrast with the ongoing "crisis in the humanities" [3][4] Group 1: Historical Perspective - The "1644 historical view" represents a confusion in historical perspectives, stemming from a century of Chinese scholars abandoning traditional views in favor of Western academic frameworks [4][12] - The need to reconstruct a genuine historical perspective rooted in Chinese tradition is emphasized, as failure to do so will allow misconceptions like the "1644 historical view" to persist [16][12] Group 2: Role of Professionals - Professionals in the humanities should act as facilitators rather than authoritative figures, providing constructive input without imposing their views on the public [4][7] - The internet has democratized access to historical knowledge, reducing the mystique surrounding the field and allowing non-experts to engage with historical research [7][8] Group 3: Challenges of AI and Misinformation - The advent of AI poses significant challenges to historical accuracy, as AI can generate convincing but false historical narratives, complicating the public's understanding of history [8][9] - The proliferation of misinformation through AI and social media has led to a situation where even experts struggle to counteract false narratives effectively [8][13] Group 4: Educational and Social Responsibilities - There is a call for scholars to bridge the gap between academic knowledge and public understanding, ensuring that their work serves the community effectively [17][19] - The importance of integrating high-level knowledge with practical societal applications is highlighted, as professionals must demonstrate their expertise through meaningful contributions to public discourse [18][19]

Core Viewpoints - The current A-share market is characterized as a "confidence bull," driven by improved expectations of national governance and enhanced expectations of technology leading the economy, with the movement of residents' deposits being a result rather than a cause [2][5] - The outlook for A-shares in 2026 is expected to be a "sideways fluctuation with slight strengthening," emphasizing the pursuit of a long-term, slow, and healthy bull market while being cautious of rapid bull markets that may lead to sharp declines [2][6] - The previous "dumbbell" market trend has ended, shifting investment opportunities from "high-growth technology + low-volatility high-dividend" extremes to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [2][6] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in cyclical industries are not in the real estate chain but are related to national strategies in three sectors: chemicals, metals, and agriculture [3][7] - AI remains a core focus in technology, with long-term potential, but is currently in a phase of expectation verification, requiring careful stock selection [3][9] - The investment focus for the next 3 to 6 months should be on cyclical and manufacturing sectors, as these align with national strategies and economic transformation [7][8] Market Dynamics - The core drivers of the current market uptrend are improvements in national governance and stronger expectations for technology-led economic growth, with significant achievements in diplomacy, defense, and trade contributing to economic resilience [4][5] - The market is currently at a critical juncture around the 4100-point level, with the need for new drivers to support further upward movement, as previous gains have largely reflected the core drivers [6][12] - The transition from a "dumbbell" market structure to a focus on mid-cap blue chips indicates a shift in risk appetite, with low-volatility, high-dividend stocks losing their appeal [11][12] Future Outlook - The AI sector is expected to experience a period of consolidation and differentiation, with the potential for long-term growth remaining intact despite short-term fluctuations [9][10] - The public fund commission rate reform is prompting a strategic shift in brokerage research departments, moving towards comprehensive service for institutional clients beyond just public funds [17] - The securities research industry is seen as a field of continuous learning and growth, with a call for new talent to join and contribute to the evolving landscape [18]

Core Insights - The current A-share market is characterized as a "confidence bull," driven primarily by improved expectations of national governance and enhanced technological leadership in the economy, with the movement of residents' deposits being a result rather than a cause [2][5][23] - The outlook for 2026 indicates a market pattern of "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," emphasizing the pursuit of a long-term, slow, and healthy bull market while cautioning against overly high index targets [2][6][24] - The previous "dumbbell" market trend has ended, shifting investment opportunities from "high-growth technology and low-volatility high-dividend" extremes to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [2][19][25] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in cyclical industries are not found in the real estate chain but are linked to national strategies in three key sectors: chemicals, metals, and agriculture [3][20][25] - The AI sector remains a core focus for technology, with long-term potential, but is currently in a phase of expectation verification, requiring careful stock selection [5][28][29] - The manufacturing sector is highlighted as a key area, with China being a manufacturing powerhouse, focusing on equipment across various fields such as machinery, new energy, robotics, military, and semiconductor manufacturing [25][26] Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning from a "two ends" structure to a focus on mid-cap blue chips, with a shift in risk appetite towards more stable investments [30][31] - The core drivers of the market's performance are rooted in changes in expectations rather than liquidity factors, emphasizing the importance of political, economic, and technological developments [31][32] - The upcoming period is expected to see a verification and correction phase for the AI sector, with overall market volatility likely to decrease [28][29] Industry Evolution - The public fund commission rate reform is significantly impacting the securities research industry, prompting a strategic shift towards providing comprehensive services across investment banking, institutional business, and wealth management [35][36] - The future of securities research will involve deeper integration with the core business areas of securities firms, expanding the client base to include enterprises, institutions, and individual clients [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "folk historical enthusiasm" in China reflects societal progress, as people seek cultural engagement after basic needs are met, highlighting a contrast with the ongoing "crisis in the humanities" [3][4] Group 1: Historical Perspective - The "1644 historical view" represents a confusion in historical perspectives, stemming from a century of Chinese scholars abandoning traditional views in favor of Western academic frameworks [3][12] - The need to reconstruct a genuine historical perspective rooted in Chinese tradition is emphasized, as failure to do so will allow misconceptions like the "1644 historical view" to persist [16][19] Group 2: Role of Professionals - Professionals in the humanities should act as facilitators rather than authoritative figures, providing constructive input without imposing their views on the public [4][7] - The importance of engaging with the public's enthusiasm for history is highlighted, suggesting that professionals should contribute positively to this interest [4][18] Group 3: Impact of Technology - The internet has democratized access to historical materials, allowing the public to engage in historical research, but the advent of AI poses challenges by generating misleading information that can confuse even experts [7][8] - The ability of AI to produce convincing but false historical narratives raises concerns about the integrity of historical knowledge and the role of professionals in clarifying these issues [8][9] Group 4: Educational and Social Responsibilities - There is a call for professionals to bridge the gap between the "crisis in the humanities" and the public's historical enthusiasm, emphasizing the need for a service-oriented approach in academia [3][17] - The discussion highlights the necessity for scholars to adapt to the changing landscape of knowledge dissemination and to prioritize genuine engagement with societal needs [19][20]

大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 2月13日晚间，美股三大指数走势震荡，时而上涨，时而转跌。 美国劳工统计局报告显示，1月份美国消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.4%。根据道琼斯对经济学家的调查，此前市场预期环 比增幅为0.3%，同比增幅为2.5%；剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.5%，均符合市场预期。 TradeStation全球市场策略负责人大卫·罗素表示："对于此前受AI冲击而动荡不安的投资者来说，今天的通胀报告让他们松了一口气。它抵消了本 周强劲非农就业数据带来的压力，给美联储提供了一个略微偏向'鸽派'的理由。然而，通胀率仍远高于央行目标，短期内很难改变大局。政策预 期暂时不会有实质性进展。" 【导读】美股震荡，比特币大涨，黄金白银上涨 中国基金报记者 泰勒 今晚的美股表现其实较为平淡，市场的亮点之一，是加密货币市场反弹了。 美国最大的加密货币交易所Coinbase的股价在经历昨日暴跌后站稳脚跟。此前该公司公布了疲软的季度财报，但一部分"抄底"投资者认为，最糟 糕的情况已经基本反映在股价中。 Coinbase披露，其第四季度营收下降20% ...