机构：辉立证券(香港) 研究员：章晶 公司簡介 吉利汽車是我國自主品牌乘用車領軍企業之一，主營乘用車及核心零部件的研發、生產和銷售，自主掌 握汽車領域核心技術，廣泛佈局主流車型市場。公司旗下產品包括吉利、幾何、領克、極氪、睿藍、銀 河六大子品牌，覆蓋A0 至C 級乘用車市場。 投資概要 上半年業績強勁，核心淨利同比翻番 吉利汽車公佈2025 年中期業績，2025 年上半年的總收入達到 1502.8 億元（人民幣，下同），同比 +26.5%，創歷史新高；歸母淨利潤92.9 億元，同比-13.9%；如果剔除外匯匯兑收益、減值虧損及2024 年視為出售附屬公司之收益後，核心歸母利潤為 66.6億元，同比+102%。 第二季度單季度，公司實現營業收入777.9 億元，同/環比分別+28.4%/+7.3%；我們測算扣除匯兑收益及 一次性收益影響後的核心歸母淨利潤約31.8 億元，同/環比分別+127%/-8.7%。 新能源車銷量快速增加，占比超50% 上半年公司累計總銷量達到140.9 萬輛，同比+47.4%，遠高於同期國內乘用車行業+13%的銷量同比增 速。其中，新能源車累計72.5 萬輛，同比+126.5%，占比5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in revenue but a decline in net profit, indicating a mixed financial outlook for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 150.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [1] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102% [1] - The company’s average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 95,500 yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, while the gross margin was 16.4%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The company’s net profit per vehicle was 4,724 yuan, an increase of 37% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Sales and Market Performance - The company’s sales volume for the first half of 2025 reached 1.503 million units, with a target increase to 3 million units for the full year [1][2] - The sales of fuel vehicles grew to 684,000 units, while pure electric vehicle sales reached 511,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 173% [2] - The company’s export sales in the first half of 2025 were 184,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [1] Group 3: Product Development and Strategy - The company plans to enhance its product offerings by organizing into five major battle zones and customizing products by region [1] - The launch of multiple "9" series models aims to penetrate the high-end market, with the Lynk & Co 900 model showing promising sales [3] - The company’s upcoming models, including the Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9, are expected to improve brand recognition in high-end intelligent driving solutions [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 15.96 billion yuan, 16.70 billion yuan, and 19.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating despite the competitive challenges it faces in the market [4]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the new energy vehicle industry, highlighting strong growth potential and market dynamics [2]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market showed significant growth in June, with total sales reaching 2.14 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, while new energy vehicle sales reached approximately 1.11 million units, up 33.3% year-on-year [9][12]. - New energy vehicles accounted for 51.9% of total passenger vehicle sales in June, indicating a growing market share [9]. - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in 2025 reached 5.27 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.9% [12]. Market Sales Performance - In June, pure electric vehicle sales were approximately 676,000 units, up 42.1% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid sales were about 434,000 units, up 21.6% year-on-year [12]. - The top 10 manufacturers in the new energy market held a market share of approximately 67.3%, with BYD and Geely leading the rankings [15][28]. - The top three cities for new energy vehicle sales in June were Beijing, Guangzhou, and Chengdu, with a combined market share of 25.9% [18]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights significant monthly sales growth in the new energy vehicle sector, with a 15.0% increase in June compared to the previous month [15]. - The report notes that the market dynamics are influenced by various manufacturers' performance, with notable increases from Tesla (China), Zero Run, and Changan [28]. Industry Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation plan to promote green and low-carbon standardization in the industrial and information sectors, with a focus on the automotive industry [65][66]. - The plan outlines key research directions for green low-carbon standards in the automotive sector, including carbon footprint management and new energy vehicles [66][68].

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated strong performance in 1H25, with total revenue increasing by 26.5% year-on-year to 150.28 billion yuan, driven by rapid growth in vehicle sales and internal efficiency improvements [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for 1H25 reached 150.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5% [1] - Gross margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 16.4% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 13.9% to 9.29 billion yuan, while core net profit increased by 102% to 6.66 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Sales Growth - Total vehicle sales in 1H25 rose by 47.4% to 1.409 million units, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 126.5% to 725,000 units, accounting for 51.5% of total sales [1] - Specific brand performances included Galaxy sales up by 232%, Zeekr by 3%, and Lynk & Co by 22% [1] Group 3: Cost Efficiency - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expense ratio decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 7.5% [1] - Sales expense ratio and administrative expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points and 0.7 percentage points to 5.6% and 1.9%, respectively [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expects sales growth to continue in 2H25 with new models like Galaxy A7, Galaxy M9, and Lynk & Co 10EM-P ramping up production [2] - The annual sales target has been raised by 11% to 3 million units, with 47% achieved in 1H25 [2] - Integration of Lynk & Co and Zeekr is expected to enhance internal resource optimization and efficiency [2] Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its "One Geely" strategy, with plans to complete the acquisition of Zeekr by the end of 2025 for approximately 2.4 billion USD [3] - Globalization efforts are underway, with a focus on expanding overseas markets despite a 7.7% decline in export sales in 1H25 [3] - The smart driving business has been integrated into a joint venture, which is expected to accelerate the production and iteration of smart driving solutions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of Geely Automobile in H1 2025, with total sales reaching 1.409 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and total revenue of 150.28 billion yuan, up 26.5% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, Geely's total sales were 705,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2%, with total revenue of 77.79 billion yuan, up 28.4% year-on-year and 7.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The significant increase in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, which saw sales of 386,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 119.2%, contributed to the revenue growth [1] Group 2 - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 17.1%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3 percentage points, primarily due to structural changes in export and product mix [2] - The company has seen a reduction in expense ratios, with sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios at 6.1%, 1.9%, and 5.1% respectively, indicating a significant decrease year-on-year [2] - Geely plans to privatize Zeekr, proposing to acquire each share at $2.566, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and brand competitiveness in the luxury electric vehicle market [3] Group 3 - Geely's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 404.78 billion yuan, 489.69 billion yuan, and 572.83 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 16.21 billion yuan, 22.09 billion yuan, and 25.97 billion yuan [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for the same period are 1.61 yuan, 2.19 yuan, and 2.58 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11, 8, and 7 times based on the closing price of 19.24 HKD on August 15 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, with domestic brands leading the market share and showing strong sales performance in June 2025. Group 1: Sales Performance - In June 2025, total retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.09 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [10] - New energy vehicle sales in June reached 1.112 million units, a year-on-year growth of 29.8%, with a cumulative total of 5.469 million units in the first half of the year, up 33.3% [1] - SUV sales in June were 1.04 million units, up 18.5% year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 5.358 million units in the first half, reflecting an 11.2% increase [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - BYD maintained its leading position with sales of 352,081 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, capturing a market share of 16.9% [3][4] - Geely ranked second with sales of 195,537 units, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 49.6%, despite a 4.7% decline from the previous month [4][7] - FAW-Volkswagen entered the top three with sales of 142,913 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [5][7] Group 3: Market Share Dynamics - Domestic brands accounted for 64% of the retail market share in the first half of 2025, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [10] - The market share of German brands decreased, with a retail share of 16.1%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Tesla China saw a significant rebound with sales of 61,484 units in June, a 59.3% increase from the previous month, driven by the popularity of the Model Y [9][16] Group 4: Future Outlook - Geely plans to increase its annual sales target from 2.71 million to 3 million units, supported by the successful launch of new models [11] - The market is expected to enter a phase of intense competition, with a focus on technology and pricing strategies as numerous new models are set to launch in the second half of the year [19]

Group 1 - The company sold 236,000 vehicles in June, representing a year-over-year increase of 42.1% [1] - For the first half of the year, the company achieved total vehicle sales of 1.41 million, a year-over-year increase of 47.4% [2] - The company raised its annual sales target to 3 million vehicles, which is a 38% increase compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 2 - The company held a technology launch event for the Zeekr 9X on July 9, introducing the world's first full-stack 900V high-voltage hybrid architecture, SEA-S [1][3] - The Zeekr 9X is expected to start pre-sales at the end of August and is positioned as the brand's flagship hybrid model [3] - The Zeekr 9X features a maximum engine power of 205 kW and a thermal efficiency exceeding 46%, with a 20%-80% battery recharge time of only 9 minutes [3] Group 3 - The company expects to see significant profit growth, with net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 13.84 billion, 17.9 billion, and 22.3 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-over-year increases of 47%, 30%, and 24% [1][3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11, 8.6, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a recommendation to "buy" [1][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its cost advantages in vehicle manufacturing, with brand integration driving operational efficiency. The forecasted revenue for 2025-2027 is CNY 336.7 billion, CNY 368.5 billion, and CNY 395.6 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 40%, 10%, and 7% respectively. The net profit forecast for the same period is CNY 15.2 billion, CNY 17.8 billion, and CNY 21.7 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -8%, 17%, and 22% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.6, 8.3, and 6.8 for 2025-2027 [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Acceleration and Strategic Transformation - The company has entered the 4.0 era of vehicle manufacturing, focusing on new energy and high-end models. The brand matrix includes four major brands: Geely, Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co, covering various market segments and energy types [19][20][22]. 2. Galaxy: Platformization Ensures Cost-Effectiveness - The GEA architecture is designed for new energy vehicles, enhancing safety and performance. The Galaxy brand has seen significant sales growth, with models like E5 and Star Wish achieving monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units [36][44]. 3. Zeekr Technology: Balanced Product Strength - Zeekr's SEA architecture supports a wide range of vehicle types, from sedans to SUVs. The brand has successfully launched models that cater to both high-end and mainstream markets, establishing a strong brand presence [52][57]. 4. Oil Vehicles: Competitive Pricing Maintained - The main brand continues to offer competitive pricing in the oil vehicle segment, contributing to stable revenue and profit generation. The company is also expanding its export capabilities, leveraging its global production footprint [9][10][25]. 5. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts indicate a strong growth trajectory, with a projected revenue of CNY 336.7 billion in 2025 and a net profit of CNY 15.2 billion. The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reflecting operational efficiencies from brand integration [10][25].

Core Insights - In May, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 1.307 million units, accounting for 48.7% of total vehicle sales, with domestic NEV passenger car sales at 1.03 million units, representing 54.7% of domestic passenger car sales [1][4] - The rapid growth of NEVs is reshaping the automotive industry landscape, with cities like Chengdu striving to catch up in this competitive market [1][5] - Chengdu's NEV production surged by 402.2% in the first five months of the year, reaching 99,000 units, becoming a key driver of the city's automotive industry growth [1][4] NEV Market Dynamics - Chengdu's automotive industry, particularly the NEV sector, has seen explosive growth, with total automotive production in the city reaching 340,000 units, a 29.4% year-on-year increase [3][4] - Major brands like Lynk & Co and FAW Toyota have significantly contributed to this growth, with Lynk's production up by 181.5% and FAW Toyota's production increasing by approximately 240% [3][4] Industry Challenges - Despite the growth, Chengdu's NEV industry faces challenges, ranking 17th among 25 cities in a comprehensive development index, indicating a need for further advancement [5][7] - The traditional fuel vehicle production still dominates, and local NEV production accounts for less than 1.5% of the national total, highlighting a significant gap compared to leading cities [9][10] Future Prospects - Chengdu aims to enhance its NEV industry through strategic policies and infrastructure development, including plans for 170,000 to 210,000 charging stations by 2025 [12][10] - The city is actively attracting major NEV projects, with significant investments from companies like Volvo and potential new projects that could further boost the local industry [14][15] - By 2025, Chengdu targets a NEV industry scale exceeding 150 billion yuan and a production goal of 250,000 units, leveraging its market size and comprehensive industrial chain [15][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing an unprecedented level of competition, accelerated by recent events such as the "Chongqing Automotive Forum," where major players like BYD and Geely engaged in heated exchanges, indicating that the anticipated "most brutal competition phase" is arriving sooner than expected [1][2]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - A widespread price war in the Chinese automotive market has been ongoing since early 2023, initiated by BYD's aggressive pricing strategies, including "oil-electric parity" and "electric cheaper than oil," which significantly boosted its sales and market presence [4][12]. - Geely's "Star Wish" model is a prime example of competitive targeting, designed to directly compete with BYD's popular models by offering similar pricing and features, showcasing the intense competition in the market [5][8]. - The overall market dynamics have led to a situation where many consumers are holding back on purchases, waiting for further price reductions, which has increased pressure on automakers to lower prices to maintain sales [13][12]. Group 2: Sales and Financial Performance - In the first four months of 2023, the domestic passenger car market saw sales of 10.12 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, while total industry revenue reached 3.26 trillion yuan, up 7%, but profit margins have declined significantly [11]. - BYD's wholesale sales from January to May 2023 reached 1.736 million units, achieving 31.6% of its annual target, while Geely sold 603,000 units, meeting 22.3% of its goal [15]. Group 3: Industry Restructuring and Future Outlook - The current competitive landscape necessitates a shift towards industry restructuring, with consolidation through mergers and acquisitions seen as a potential solution to the ongoing price war and market saturation [18][19]. - The government is expected to play a role in facilitating this restructuring by enforcing stricter regulations on market practices and encouraging the exit of underperforming companies [18][20]. - Despite the potential for a reduction in price wars, the competitive environment is likely to remain intense as long as no major players exit the market, leading to continuous rivalry among automakers [20].