每经编辑｜程鹏 向江林 在经历了此前的一轮强势上涨后，1月30日，国际贵金属市场遭遇 "大跳水"，国际金价接连失守整数关口，单日跌幅超11%，白银价格更是以31.37%的断 崖式下跌创下自1980年3月以来最差单日表现。从周线来看，本周五的大幅下跌，抹去了本周之前几个交易日带来的全部涨幅，其中国际金价累计下跌 4.71%，国际银价累计下跌22.50%。 国内金饰克价也随之暴跌，部分金店两天跌去200多元。据半岛都市报报道，1月31日，杭州一家金店店员表示，金饰当天克价是1498元，30日是1668元， 29日是1704元，2天降价200多元，一个30克金镯子两天降价6000多元。 另据第一现场报道，1月31日，广东深圳，记者直击深圳水贝现场，各大金店柜台前挤满了人，选款、称重、付款的市民络绎不绝。目前，深圳水贝现场 金价是1262元/克，回收价是1081元/克。 另据媒体报道，"感觉自己发了意外之财。"近日，女星鲍天琦自曝13年前，上大学的时候，在银行保险箱里存放了一些白银，当时约4元每克，之后她把 这件事情忘记了。 鲍天琦，1992年8月17日出生于北京市，中国内地女演员，毕业于北京电影学院2010级本科班 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the nomination of Walsh to the Federal Reserve, highlighting three significant changes: a shift in decision-making mechanisms, a new inflation theory, and opposition to excessive quantitative easing (QE) while supporting balance sheet reduction. The success of these changes and their mid-term effects on dollar assets may depend more on the realization of the narrative of productivity prosperity in the U.S. than on Walsh himself [1][21]. Group 1: Walsh's Background and Policy Stance - Walsh is a former Federal Reserve governor with a diverse background in politics, business, and academia, known for being the youngest governor in Fed history at age 35 and having experience in the 2008 financial crisis [2][10][22]. - His policy stance is characterized by pragmatism, criticism of excessive QE, and support for balance sheet reduction. He is flexible on inflation, previously known as a "hawk," but now supports faster rate cuts without fearing inflation rebound [2][12][22]. Group 2: Immediate Market Impact - Walsh's nomination may trigger significant adjustments in the commodity market, potentially halting the narrative of de-dollarization, leading to a rebound in the dollar index and a sharp decline in precious metals [4][24]. - The volatility in the market is primarily driven by fluctuations, as evidenced by the increase in implied volatility for silver options, which rose from 55% to around 90% since January, far exceeding normal levels of 20-30% [4][24]. Group 3: Short- and Mid-Term Monetary Policy Implications - The decision-making framework of the Federal Reserve may shift from a "data-dependent + forward guidance" model to a more strategic, long-term perspective, potentially reducing communication and increasing policy flexibility [5][25][36]. - In the short term, the likelihood of significant rate cuts this year is low, as Walsh has not indicated a preference for drastic reductions, and the Fed remains divided on opinions [6][26][38]. - In the mid-term, if Walsh can lead the Fed to a consensus on allowing lower rates without triggering inflation, it could open up further rate cut opportunities, contingent on the realization of productivity growth narratives [19][27][38]. Group 4: Opposition to Excessive QE and Support for Balance Sheet Reduction - Walsh opposes excessive QE as a routine tool, advocating for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet to pave the way for rate cuts while avoiding excessive inflation [20][39]. - Currently, there is limited space for further balance sheet reduction, as the Fed has paused this process and resumed reserve management purchases to maintain liquidity in the money market [8][39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the precious metals market has seen significant fluctuations. The short - term rise is driven by the safe - haven property, dollar credit issues, and tight silver inventory. The sharp increase was due to short - squeezes and the option gamma squeeze effect. Currently, factors triggering adjustments include the nomination of Warsh as the Fed chair, high volatility, a significant decline in silver ETF holdings, and exchange intervention. In the long - term, the upward trend remains, and historical data shows an average 18 - day correction with an 8% decline, and a re - entry point may be when the implied volatility drops below 20% [5][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - term Logic for the Recent Rise - **Safe - haven Property**: Multiple geopolitical conflicts in 2026, such as the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and potential US tariffs on Europe and strikes against Iran, have sharply increased risk - aversion sentiment. Additionally, the potential US government shutdown also boosts the precious metals market [10][15] - **Dollar Credit Issues**: Due to the unpredictability of the US government and growing US debt, European institutions like Swedish and Danish pension funds have reduced their holdings of US - related assets, and some funds may choose gold as a new underlying asset [16] - **Silver - specific Logic**: The industrial and investment demand for silver has led to a significant decline in physical silver inventory. Compared to September 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory has dropped by over 58%, and COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 21% [17] 2. Reasons for the Previous Sharp Increase - **Short - squeeze**: As of January 29, the virtual - to - physical ratio of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8.75, much higher than the historical average. In January, over 40 million ounces of silver on COMEX applied for delivery, and as the March delivery month approaches, the demand may exhaust the current inventory [20] - **Option Gamma Squeeze Effect**: Retail investors' large - scale purchase of call options forces market - makers to buy underlying assets in the futures market, creating a self - reinforcing cycle. When gold broke through $5000 per ounce, it accelerated its upward movement [21] 3. Factors Triggering the Current Adjustment - **Direct Cause**: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair stabilizes the dollar's credit, weakening the "de - dollarization" narrative and suppressing gold prices [24] - **Volatility Perspective**: As of January 29, the implied volatility of gold exceeded 35%, and that of silver was 94%, both at historical highs, indicating an over - heated market [25] - **Funds Perspective**: The significant decline in silver ETF holdings since January 26, approaching previous lows, signals an adjustment in the silver market. Gold's overall holding growth has also slowed [27][29] - **Exchange Intervention**: The CME has raised the margin for silver and gold six times since December 2025, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also increased margins and issued risk warnings [30] 4. What to Do After the Adjustment - **Medium - to - Long - term Perspective**: The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains. International concerns about US debt sustainability and Fed independence drive central banks to increase gold reserves, and the Fed's current interest - rate cut cycle reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold [34] - **Historical Reference**: Since 2024, gold has had three peak - to - trough corrections, with an average correction time of about 18 days and a decline of about 8% [35] - **Volatility Guidance**: Historically, gold rallies have often started when implied volatility dropped to a low level. In the future, when the volatility drops below 20%, it may be a signal to go long [36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the nomination of Walsh to the Federal Reserve, emphasizing changes in decision-making mechanisms, new inflation theories, and opposition to excessive quantitative easing (QE) while supporting balance sheet reduction [2][6][17]. Group 1: Walsh's Identity and Policy Proposals - Walsh is a former Federal Reserve governor with a diverse background in politics, business, and academia, known for his pragmatic approach and criticism of excessive QE [3][11]. - His policy stance includes a flexible approach to inflation, viewing it as a result of excessive monetary and fiscal policies, and advocating for quicker interest rate cuts without fearing inflation rebound [12][19]. - Walsh is a critic of excessive QE, arguing it has led the Fed to take on a fiscal role, and he supports reducing the balance sheet to pave the way for lower interest rates [13][22]. Group 2: Immediate Market Impact - Walsh's nomination may trigger significant adjustments in commodity markets, with a notable rebound in the dollar index and a sharp decline in precious metals, attributed to increased market volatility [5][16]. - The volatility in markets, particularly in silver options, has surged, indicating that sustained high volatility levels are unlikely [5][16]. Group 3: Short- and Medium-Term Impacts on Monetary Policy - The Fed's decision-making framework may shift from a "data-dependent + forward guidance" model to a more strategic, long-term perspective, potentially increasing market volatility in the short term [6][18]. - In the medium term, if the market adapts to this new framework, Fed actions may become more predictable, reducing confusion around policy signals [18]. - Walsh's new inflation theory posits that tariffs are one-time price shocks and that AI-driven productivity growth could lead to non-inflationary growth, supporting quicker rate cuts without inflation concerns [19][20]. Group 4: Opposition to Excessive QE and Support for Balance Sheet Reduction - Walsh opposes the use of excessive QE as a regular tool, advocating for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, although he has not indicated immediate plans for such actions [8][22]. - In the short term, there may be limited space for further balance sheet reduction due to recent market conditions, while in the medium term, the potential for QE may still exist if a crisis arises, albeit with less intensity than previous rounds [22][8].

记者丨曾静娇 唐婧 编辑丨刘雪莹 视频丨许婷婷 国内外贵金属价格剧烈波动，2月1日，工商银行再次紧急发布风险提示。 提示中，工商银行建议投资者在审慎评估自身风险承受能力的基础上，保持理性投资心态，避 免盲目追涨杀跌。建议从中长期视角考虑，坚持分批分散、适度均衡的原则进行投资配置。请 投资者密切关注行情变化，合理控制持仓规模，有效防范市场波动风险。 今年1月份，就在贵金属价格出现剧烈波动前后，已有三家国有大行要求客户在办理相关业务 时需增加风险评测。 1月12日，工商银行要求办理开户、主动积存或新增定投计划的个人客户，需完成风险承 受能力评估、取得C3-平衡型及以上的评估结果并签署风险揭示书方可办理。 农业银行公告自1月30日起，对个人客户参与存金通黄金积存交易时，需取得谨慎型及以 上评估结果。 交通银行公告显示，自1月31日起，客户办理相关业务也有了风险评测要求。 近期多家银行还通过投资起点调整、交易限额调整等手段，进一步提醒投资者注意风险。 建设银行1月30日宣布，2月2日起个人黄金积存定期积存起点上调至1500元，覆盖日均积 存及自选日积存，成为首家将参与门槛提至1500元的国有大行。 受特朗普提名"鹰派 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a historic crash, with gold prices plummeting from a peak of $5,600 per ounce to a low of $5,097, resulting in a single-day decline of over 7% and the evaporation of trillions in market value [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold market had been in a strong bull run, reaching record highs, but a sudden shift in sentiment led to a dramatic drop in prices [3]. - The crash was not isolated but rather a result of multiple factors, including expectations of a policy shift following the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, perceived as hawkish [5]. - The liquidity in the market was severely constrained, exacerbating the volatility and leading to a rapid sell-off [7]. Group 2: Speculative Behavior and Regulation - The recent surge in precious metal prices was characterized by speculative trading, indicating a bubble-like environment [9]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the overheated market, as evidenced by the suspension of trading for certain funds [10]. Group 3: Long-term Fundamentals - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term fundamentals supporting gold prices remain intact, driven by central bank purchases and a shift towards diversifying foreign exchange reserves [12]. - The World Gold Council projects that global gold demand will exceed 5,000 tons by 2025, highlighting a significant increase in investment demand [12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on asset selection and risk management rather than engaging in panic selling or chasing prices [14]. - A balanced approach, such as allocating a portion of the portfolio to gold and employing dollar-cost averaging during price corrections, is recommended [14].

Core Insights - The overall profitability of A-share listed companies continues to recover, with 2,983 companies disclosing performance forecasts, achieving a disclosure rate of 55.73% as of January 31, 2026. The disclosed net profit for 2024 is nearly 540 billion yuan, accounting for 10.30% of total A-share net profit [1][2][3] Performance Forecasts - Among the disclosed performance forecasts, the positive forecast rate is 36.67%, an increase from 34.07% in 2024. There are 1,069 companies expecting profits and 1,846 expecting losses, with the highest positive forecast rate in the ChiNext board at 38.33% [2][3] Profit Growth Rates - The median net profit growth rate for all A-share companies is 17.5% year-on-year, with an overall growth rate of 38.2%, both higher than the growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025. The ChiNext board shows significant improvement in profit growth, driven by overseas computing power and reduced losses in some new energy companies [3][4] Industry Insights - In terms of industry performance, non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals have high positive forecast rates of 87.50% and 65.75%, respectively. Other sectors with notable rates include beauty care (53.85%), automotive (53.68%), and public utilities (50.94%) [4][5] - The median year-on-year net profit growth rates for industries such as non-ferrous metals (68.98%), non-bank financials (67.63%), and steel (59.17%) rank among the highest for 2025 [4][5] Sectoral Opportunities - Key sectors showing strong performance indicators include resource commodities benefiting from new demand from AI and high-end manufacturing, as well as the AI sector experiencing explosive growth due to increased capital expenditure by cloud vendors [5][6] - Leading manufacturing companies are expanding into new growth areas through overseas operations, particularly in automotive parts, power equipment, and shipbuilding, which are expected to drive industry growth [5][6] Market Outlook - The A-share market is entering a traditional bullish window, with historical data indicating a 76% probability of index increases in February, with an average increase of 3.4% [8][9] - Investment focus should be on sectors with strong performance indicators, including AI hardware, new energy storage, and sectors highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, such as commercial aerospace and 6G technology [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold and silver prices does not indicate the end of the bull market, but rather a transition from a "crazy bull" to a "slow bull" market, with underlying support from various macroeconomic factors [1][3][7]. Market Analysis - The recent volatility in gold and silver prices has been attributed to irrational market behavior driven by news rather than fundamental changes [3][7]. - The expectation is that as long as Donald Trump remains president, the bull market for gold and silver will continue due to global instability, high U.S. debt, and increasing demand for gold reserves by central banks [7]. Investor Behavior - Different types of investors have reacted differently to the recent market changes: - Some investors who engaged in short-term trading may face losses as they relied on luck rather than strategy [7][10]. - Others who hesitated to invest during the bull market may have entered at the peak, resulting in losses [10]. - Investors who engaged in counter-trend trading and short-selling may have suffered significant losses during the recent downturn [12]. - Those who increased their positions without timely exits may find their profits evaporated [14]. Recommendations - The company has advised investors to take profits and exit positions, especially those established since the New Year, while suggesting that lower positions can be maintained [16].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with London gold prices dropping over 10% in a single day, breaking the critical psychological level of 5000 and reaching a low of approximately 4682. However, after this sharp correction, the downward momentum is gradually weakening, indicating potential stabilization in the near term [1]. Group 1: Technical Analysis - The daily chart formed a clear top pattern, but the significant short-term pullback has led to a depletion of selling pressure from overbought positions, suggesting that the technical conditions are conducive for a rebound [1]. - The support level around 4950 aligns with the upper boundary of the key support zone of 4800-4900, which is also a reasonable retracement level within the previous upward trend [1]. - A short-term buying opportunity is identified near the 4950 level, with a target price of approximately 5200, reflecting both short-term recovery logic and mid-term upward trend expectations [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influences - The sharp decline in gold prices was attributed to multiple negative factors converging, including hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and the nomination of a hawkish candidate for the Fed chair, which triggered a rebound in the US dollar [1]. - Despite the recent downturn, the trend of global central banks purchasing gold continues, and the de-dollarization trend remains unchanged, with major institutions still optimistic about a long-term bull market for gold [1]. - As the short-term negative sentiment dissipates, there is an expectation for capital to flow back into gold, reinforcing the rationale for buying near the 4950 level [1].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices fluctuating sharply due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership. Recent comments from former President Trump advocating for lower interest rates have positively impacted precious metals [3][6][29] - The report highlights a strong demand for gold driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, with expectations for continued price increases in the long term due to global monetary and debt concerns [7][21] - Silver has shown a dramatic price drop recently, attributed to profit-taking and market reactions to Federal Reserve announcements, but the underlying supply-demand dynamics remain supportive of future price increases [8][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices fell by 1.52% to $4,907.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver dropped by 17.44% to $85.25 per ounce. In contrast, SHFE gold rose by 4.10% to ¥1,161.42 per gram, and SHFE silver increased by 11.92% to ¥27,941.00 per kilogram [1][33] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 19.29% to 57.57, indicating a shift in market dynamics [34] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions involving Iran, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, leading to increased volatility in their prices [3][6][29] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices decreased by 0.44% to $13,070.50 per ton, while aluminum fell by 1.20% to $3,135.50 per ton. Zinc, however, saw a rise of 3.09% to $3,370.00 per ton [9] - The SHFE market showed copper prices increasing by 2.31% to ¥103,680.00 per ton, with aluminum and zinc also experiencing gains [9] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines and structural demand from emerging industries are expected to support copper prices in the long term, despite current demand weakness in China [10][24] Small Metals - Magnesium prices rose by 1.45% to ¥18,240 per ton, driven by increased demand ahead of the Chinese New Year and stable supply from major production areas [19] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, supported by tight supply and steady demand from steel manufacturers [20]