Macro and Strategy - The fiscal data for the first five months of 2025 shows a decline in both revenue and expenditure, with total public budget revenue at 96,623 billion yuan, down 0.3% year-on-year, and total expenditure at 112,953 billion yuan, up 4.2% year-on-year [9][10] - The high-tech manufacturing macro report indicates that the diffusion index remains unchanged, with specific sectors like dynamic random access memory (DRAM) prices rising, while others like acrylonitrile are declining [10][11] - The macroeconomic report highlights a seasonal decline in high-frequency indicators, suggesting stable economic performance despite fluctuations in investment and consumption sectors [11][12] Industry and Company - The food and beverage industry report emphasizes the emergence of new consumption patterns driven by lifestyle changes, indicating a shift towards more personalized and experience-oriented consumption [23][24] - The report identifies three main consumer groups: Generation Z, the silver-haired population, and the middle class, each with distinct consumption preferences and behaviors [25][26] - Investment recommendations include companies like Wei Long, Salted Fish, Dongpeng Beverage, and Guizhou Moutai, reflecting confidence in the food and beverage sector's growth potential [27] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market has seen a pullback from high levels, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and a notable shift of funds towards the financial sector [28][29] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.5%, with significant outflows from the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors, while the machinery sector attracted investment [30][31] Financial Engineering - The REITs market has shown positive performance, with the index rising by 0.87% and a year-to-date increase of 13.2%, indicating strong interest in property and infrastructure-related investments [14][15] - The approval of the first data center REITs marks a significant expansion in the REITs market, reflecting growing interest in digital infrastructure [16]

Group 1 - Singapore's Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong, is on a five-day official visit to China, marking the 35th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries [1][3] - This visit is significant as it is Wong's first as Prime Minister, emphasizing the importance of strengthening bilateral relations [1][3] - Wong's previous roles included leadership positions related to China, indicating a long-standing engagement with the country [3] Group 2 - The visit aims to reaffirm the commitment to bilateral cooperation, with a focus on existing government projects such as the Suzhou Industrial Park and Tianjin Eco-City [4][5] - Wong will also attend the World Economic Forum's Summer Davos in Tianjin, where he will discuss the importance of a rules-based multilateral system amid rising geopolitical tensions [5][6] - Singapore's strategic position is highlighted as it seeks to maintain a neutral stance in the US-China competition, aiming for mutual cooperation with China [5][6] Group 3 - The discussions are expected to cover economic cooperation, supply chain stability, and emerging fields such as digital economy and green energy [6][7] - Singapore is recognized as a key economic partner for China in ASEAN, with both countries having strong trade ties [6][7] - There is potential for collaboration in areas like cross-border payment systems and regional security issues, including the South China Sea [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the rapid development of the digital economy in China, driven by innovations in artificial intelligence, big data, and 5G technologies, which serve as a new engine for high-quality economic growth [1] - Data shows that China accounts for 61.5% of the 45,000 newly published generative AI patents globally, indicating a strong position in AI innovation [1] - The integration of the digital economy with the real economy is leading to significant industrial upgrades, with the manufacturing value added of digital products growing by 9.1% in May, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate [1] Group 2 - The expansion of the data factor market is creating new opportunities to extract data value, with various regions and departments actively exploring public data authorization and enterprise data asset registration [2] - China's total computing power has reached 280 EFLOPS, providing robust support for data storage, computation, and analysis, which is essential for the integration of data factors with other production elements [2] - Despite advancements, challenges remain in high-end chips and core technologies, necessitating increased R&D investment and the strengthening of legal frameworks to ensure data security while promoting orderly development [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that global foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to decline, with a projected decrease of 11% to approximately $1.5 trillion in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline [1][2] - The decline in international project financing (IPF) is particularly severe for developing countries, with a projected drop of 26% in 2024, which is the third consecutive year of significant decline [2][3] - Investment related to sustainable development goals (SDGs) has also seen substantial decreases across various sectors, including a 23% drop in renewable energy investments, a 35% decline in infrastructure investments, and a 30% decrease in water, sanitation, and hygiene projects [2][3] Group 2 - The digital economy is highlighted as the only growth area, with international investment in this sector expected to double in 2024, focusing on data centers, artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and cybersecurity [2][3] - However, there is a notable imbalance in the distribution of digital economy investments, with most funds concentrated in a few countries like China and the United States, leaving structural weak economies marginalized [3] - The report emphasizes the need for a shift in investment direction and global cooperation to achieve equitable and sustainable development, advocating for the integration of digital strategies with industrial policies and sustainable development goals [4]

Group 1 - The sixth Multinational Corporation Leaders Qingdao Summit was held from June 18 to 20, signaling China's commitment to expanding openness and welcoming foreign investment amidst rising unilateralism and protectionism [1] - The summit featured 570 guests from 135 Fortune 500 companies and 330 industry-leading enterprises, highlighting the importance of the Chinese market and the confidence in China's economic prospects [1][2] - The report released at the summit indicated that profits of foreign-invested industrial enterprises in China are projected to increase from 1.6 trillion RMB to 1.8 trillion RMB from 2019 to 2024, with profit margins consistently outperforming the national industrial average [2] Group 2 - The theme of the summit was "Multinational Corporations and China - Linking the World for Win-Win Cooperation," reflecting a new trend of multinational companies exploring opportunities in China [3] - Factors contributing to this trend include a stable policy environment, a multi-dimensional opening-up strategy, a large-scale consumer market, a complete supply chain system, and the maturation of new sectors such as digital economy and green technology [3] - China is positioned as an ideal, safe, and proactive investment destination for foreign businesses, with an increasingly favorable business environment and expanding opportunities regardless of international changes [3]

Core Viewpoint - Satellite communication technology is becoming a focal point in the mobile communication industry, reshaping network access in remote areas and providing connectivity to populations without internet access, thus opening a new chapter in the digital economy [1] Industry Developments - The 2025 Shanghai World Mobile Communication Conference showcased innovations in satellite communication, indicating a shift towards integrating satellite technology into mainstream communication [1] - Geely's commercial space enterprise, Time Space Path, is planning a global low-orbit satellite communication constellation, with an initial deployment of 72 satellites aimed at achieving real-time IoT communication globally [2] - China Mobile launched a series of "satellite IoT" products, including domestically produced satellite communication chips and modules, to enhance connectivity in areas lacking cellular coverage [2] Infrastructure and Collaboration - China Tower is exploring the integration of satellite networks with ground networks, utilizing its extensive ground station resources to enhance satellite signal reception [3] - The company is collaborating with satellite internet firms to optimize network operations and security, demonstrating the strategic value of shared infrastructure [3] Global Expansion - Chinese satellite communication technology providers are accelerating international expansion, with notable agreements such as China Telecom's partnership with Laos for satellite services [4] - Time Space Path has established a joint telecom venture in Malaysia, marking a significant step in the international application of low-orbit satellite communication [4] Market Potential - The global satellite communication market is projected to exceed $40 billion by 2030, highlighting the sector's potential as a key driver of economic growth [5] - The Chinese satellite navigation and positioning service industry is expected to reach a total output value of 575.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.39% [6] Challenges and Opportunities - The satellite industry is at a critical juncture, facing both opportunities and challenges, particularly in resource management and technological development [7] - There is a need for enhanced management of satellite frequency and orbital resources, as well as the promotion of international cooperation to build a more open and shared satellite industry ecosystem [7]

新华社阿斯塔纳6月22日电（记者付瑞霞 赵冰）"丝路融通：构建中国－中亚命运共同体 携手应对世 界变局论坛"22日在哈萨克斯坦首都阿斯塔纳举行。与会嘉宾认为，中国高度重视人工智能发展，中亚 国家同样将数字技术和人工智能视为国家现代化的重要支撑，双方在人工智能领域的合作前景广阔。 "人工智能不仅是技术趋势，它还是推动教育、医疗、能源和国家治理等各领域转型的强大工具。在得 到正确且正当使用的情况下，人工智能可大幅加快可持续发展目标的实现。"塔吉克斯坦技术大学教务 副校长、第一副校长托希尔·马吉多夫说，2023年至2024年，塔吉克斯坦积极推进数字化转型战略，该 战略的内容包括形成人工智能领域内的关键能力并发展相关基础设施。 中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所中亚与高加索研究室副主任、中国社会科学院上海合作组织研究 中心副秘书长杨进认为，中亚各国政府纷纷成立专门机构或委员会负责推进人工智能和数字经济政策， 在教育、医疗、交通、能源等领域积极引入智能化解决方案。中国与中亚五国在人工智能和数字经济领 域各有所长，都在规划未来发展，具有开展深入合作的坚实基础和巨大潜力。 加强中国与中亚国家在人工智能领域的合作成为与会嘉宾 ...

Core Insights - The 9th China-South Asia Expo is being held from June 19 to June 24 in Kunming, Yunnan, showcasing high-tech exhibits in digital economy, artificial intelligence, green energy, and low-altitude economy [2][4][7]. Group 1 - The expo features a variety of high-tech exhibits that attract numerous visitors for experience and interaction [2][4][9]. - Notable exhibits include coffee-making robots, interactive robotic dogs, and industrial robotic arms, highlighting advancements in automation and AI [4][7][9]. - The event emphasizes the growing importance of digital economy and green technologies in the region [2][4][11].

Core Viewpoint - The "China-Central Asia Spirit" emphasizes mutual respect, trust, benefit, and assistance, aiming for high-quality development and common modernization among China and Central Asian countries [1][2]. Economic Cooperation - The trade volume between China and Central Asian countries is projected to reach $94.8 billion in 2024, an increase of $5.4 billion from the previous year and over a hundredfold growth from the initial $460 million at the time of diplomatic relations [2][6]. - The establishment of a million-ton agricultural trade park in Kazakhstan by Aijiu Group exemplifies the deepening economic ties, with products like honey and ice cream being exported to China [2][3]. Infrastructure Development - Significant infrastructure projects, such as the China-Europe cross-Caspian express and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, have enhanced connectivity, transforming Central Asian countries from "landlocked" to "land-linked" [3][4]. - The opening of new transportation routes has facilitated smoother trade and travel between China and Central Asia, bolstering economic cooperation [3]. Cultural Exchange - Cultural dialogues between China and Central Asian nations have intensified, with increased cooperation in tourism, healthcare, and cultural exchanges, contributing to a stronger regional community [3][9]. - Chinese films and cultural events have gained popularity in Central Asia, enhancing mutual understanding and cultural ties [3][9]. Security Cooperation - China and Central Asian countries are collaborating on security initiatives to combat traditional and non-traditional threats, establishing a robust security framework for regional stability [4][9]. - The establishment of various cooperative mechanisms, such as the China-Central Asia Public Security Ministers' meeting, reflects a commitment to maintaining peace and security in the region [4][9]. Opportunities for Future Cooperation - The report highlights the potential for cooperation in green and digital sectors, with Central Asia's rich renewable resources aligning with China's investment and technology capabilities [6][7]. - The geographical position of Central Asia as a crossroads between Europe and Asia enhances its economic resilience and international influence through improved infrastructure and logistics [7][8]. Conclusion - The "China-Central Asia Spirit" serves as a guiding principle for fostering deeper ties and achieving shared prosperity, with a focus on mutual support and collaborative development [8][10].

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 6 月 22 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 本周 A 股表现弱势 我们维持后续大类资产配置顺序为：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.45%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 2.17%；焦煤期货 本周上涨 3.04%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 0.07%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率下跌 2BP 至 1.16%；十年国债收益率与上周持平，仍为 1.64%，活跃十 年国债期货本周上涨 0.15%。 资产配置建议 20250619 《降息应在涨价后》20250619 《论坛内容侧重长期制度建设》20250619 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 5 月经济数据表现延续内部分化，但与此前的经济特点有所不同：工业增 加值同比增速较 4 月有所下降，社零同比增速较 4 月明显上升，且好于万 得一致预期，固投累计同比增速较 1-4 月继续小幅下降。 6 月 18 日，2025 陆家嘴论坛在上海开幕，"一行两局一会"主要负责人 重磅发声；其中，央行宣布八项重磅金融政策；金融监管总局会同上海市 人民政府 ...