Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodity futures is neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - External risks abroad are rising, but the domestic trend remains optimistic. China's Two Sessions in March set a positive tone for the whole year, with more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The government's credit is in an expansion phase, and policies to address "involution - style" competition are worth attention. The official manufacturing PMI in March showed a month - on - month improvement but a year - on - year weakness, and the industry is also differentiated. Considering external tariff pressure, the possibility of additional domestic easing should be monitored [3] - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs exacerbates stagflation trading. Trump's reciprocal tariff order on April 2nd includes a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on some. It has an impact on China, Vietnam, Thailand, etc. Some products are exempted. The tariff game continues, and it may lead to stagflation in the US economy and put the Fed in a policy dilemma. Attention should be paid to the possible stagflation environment overseas in the long - term [4] - In the short term, be vigilant about the emotional impact on commodities, and in the long term, focus on stagflation - related asset allocation. From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff increases first affects demand and then inflation. Industrial products like black and non - ferrous metals may be affected by the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may see price increases. Gold is relatively certain due to de - dollarization and potential stagflation overseas [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's government credit is expanding with policies such as raising the deficit rate, increasing special bond limits, and issuing special treasury bonds. The manufacturing PMI in March improved month - on - month but was still weak year - on - year, and the industry is differentiated. External tariff pressure may lead to additional domestic easing [3] Tariff Impact - Trump's reciprocal tariff order on April 2nd includes a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on some. Some products are exempted. The tariff game continues, and it may lead to stagflation in the US economy and put the Fed in a policy dilemma [4] Commodity Investment Strategy - The overall rating for commodity futures is neutral. In the short term, be vigilant about the impact of tariff events on global assets and liquidity risks. After the market stabilizes, focus on anti - inflation assets like gold and commodities and the allocation opportunities in A - shares. In the long term, pay attention to stagflation - related asset allocation [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's recent "reciprocal tariff" executive order, which imposes a 10% minimum tariff on global trade partners and a 34% tariff specifically on China, highlighting the potential economic risks and market reactions associated with this policy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Objectives of the Tariff Policy - The primary goal of the tariff policy is to alleviate the U.S. debt burden by increasing revenue through higher tariffs [5]. - Another objective is to stimulate the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. by making domestic production more financially attractive [6]. - The policy aims to reshape the geopolitical landscape and re-establish U.S. dominance in international trade [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 2.72%, S&P 500 down 3.16%, and Nasdaq falling 4.24% within two days [12]. - Global markets also reacted negatively, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index down 2.6% and Vietnam's stock market plummeting 7% [13]. - The volatility in the markets reflects concerns over the uncertainty of the tariff policy and its long-term implications [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In the U.S. market, a cautious approach is recommended, avoiding high-valuation tech stocks and focusing on defensive sectors such as utilities and healthcare [24]. - For Hong Kong stocks, it is advised to reduce exposure to export-oriented companies and increase holdings in domestic consumption and financial sectors [34]. - In the A-share market, investors are encouraged to consider undervalued blue-chip stocks and sectors benefiting from domestic demand and technological advancements [34]. Group 4: China's Response and Market Risks - China is likely to implement reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods, particularly in agriculture and energy, while also diversifying its export markets [37]. - Long-term strategies may include tax reductions and infrastructure investments to boost domestic demand, alongside enhancing regional trade cooperation [38]. - Potential risks include increased import costs leading to domestic inflation and the impact of reduced U.S. demand on export-oriented companies [38].