Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a delay in the release of official economic data, including the September employment report, which was originally scheduled for October 3 [3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.09%, the Dow Jones by 1.10%, and the Nasdaq by 1.32% over the past week, while European indices also performed well, with the FTSE 100 up 2.22% and the DAX 30 up 2.69% [1] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Investors are anticipating a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October and an 85% probability of another cut in December [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and speeches from officials, including Chairman Powell, are expected to provide insights into future monetary policy [3][4] Gold and Oil Prices - International gold prices have reached a new high, closing at $3,880.80 per ounce, marking a 2.77% increase for the week, driven by concerns over the prolonged government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts [6] - In contrast, international oil prices have dropped significantly, with WTI crude oil falling 7.36% to $60.88 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and seasonal demand declines [6] European Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to release the minutes from its September meeting, with inflation in the Eurozone rising from 2.0% to 2.2% [7] - The upcoming budget announcement from the UK government is anticipated to be a significant indicator, with concerns over the economic outlook reflected in the low demand for UK 10-year government bonds [7][8] Upcoming Economic Data Releases - Key economic data releases this week include the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and various manufacturing and trade data from Germany and the Eurozone [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September has not been released due to the government shutdown, with the ADP employment number showing a decrease of 32,000, the largest drop since March 2023, against an expectation of a 50,000 increase and a previous value of 54,000 [1] - Market participants are increasing bets on two further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [1] - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting summary indicated that two members proposed a rate hike [1] - China's official manufacturing PMI for September rose to 49.8 [1] - The Bank of Canada’s meeting minutes suggest that inflation risks have diminished, shifting the policy focus towards addressing economic weakness [1] Upcoming Events & Indicators - On October 6, OpenAI will hold the 2025 Developer Conference in San Francisco [2] - On October 8, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision, and Federal Reserve Governor Barr will speak [2] - On October 9, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting, and the European Central Bank will publish the September monetary policy meeting minutes [2] - On October 10, the U.S. will report the preliminary one-year inflation expectations for October and the preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for October, including employment data and consumer confidence indices in the US and Eurozone [2][3] - Key dates include the release of the US September ADP employment numbers and the unemployment rate, as well as the Eurozone's August unemployment rate [2] - The article highlights the importance of the US non-farm payroll data and the consumer confidence index for October, which are critical for assessing economic health [3] Group 2 - The article mentions the upcoming release of China's September industrial profits and the significance of these figures for understanding the country's economic performance [3] - It also notes the scheduled announcements from central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, which could impact market expectations [3] - The article emphasizes the relevance of oil inventory data and production numbers, which are crucial for the energy sector [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US consumer confidence index fell to 94.2 in September, marking a five-month low and below market expectations [1][2] - The consumer confidence index decreased by 3.6 from the revised data of August, with the present situation index at 125.4, down by 7 from August [1] - The expectations index, which reflects consumers' short-term outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped to 73.4, a decline of 1.3 from August [1] Group 2 - The consumer confidence index for individuals under 35 increased, while it decreased for those aged 35 and above [2] - The current assessment of the business and labor market conditions saw the largest drop in a year, with the employment situation index declining for nine consecutive months [2] - Inflation and prices emerged as the primary concerns for consumers in September, with many linking tariffs to rising prices [2] - The average inflation expectation for the next 12 months is 5.8%, down from 6.1% in August but still above the approximately 5% expected by the end of 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index from 97.8 to 94.2 in September indicates a potential risk of contraction in consumer spending, a critical pillar of the U.S. economy [2] Economic Indicators - Despite considerable uncertainty, the U.S. economy has shown resilience, primarily supported by consumer spending growth [2] - A noticeable decline in consumer spending could extinguish the main engine driving the U.S. economy [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting, with expectations of further cuts in October [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious remarks add uncertainty to future monetary policy [2] - The Fed is likely to adopt a gradual and modest rate-cutting strategy, which may provide limited support to the current U.S. economy [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in collaboration with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, have officially launched a cross-border bond repurchase business to support foreign institutions participating in the onshore bond market [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will introduce a new Renminbi business funding arrangement starting October 9, replacing the existing Renminbi trade financing liquidity arrangement and implementing several optimization measures [1] - The U.S. government funding is set to run out at midnight on September 30, raising concerns about a potential government shutdown if bipartisan negotiations fail [1] Group 2 - President Trump announced a new round of high tariffs on various imported products starting October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and a 30% tariff on imported furniture [2] - The U.S. International Trade Commission ruled that corrosion-resistant steel products imported from several countries have harmed U.S. industries, leading to the issuance of anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders [2] - The Federal Reserve's Board member Bowman emphasized the need for rate cuts due to a "fragile" job market and inflation nearing the Fed's target [2] Group 3 - The Kansas City Fed President stated that the Fed may not need to lower interest rates again in the short term as inflation levels remain high [3] - The South Korean government plans to extend foreign exchange market trading hours to 24 hours to eliminate trading time restrictions for foreign investors [3] - The Bank of Indonesia is intervening in the financial market to stabilize the Indonesian Rupiah, which has fallen to record lows [3] Group 4 - The final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for September dropped to 55.1, the lowest in four months, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7% [4] - The core CPI in Tokyo, Japan, rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, unchanged from August [4] Group 5 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.65% to 46,247.29 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw increases [4] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.50% to $3,789.8 per ounce, and silver futures rose by 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce [4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 1.43 basis points to 3.63%, while the 10-year yield rose by 1.16 basis points to 4.20% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, reflecting concerns over declining consumer confidence and a cooling job market [3]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index has declined for two consecutive months, indicating ongoing worries about the economic outlook [1][6]. - Retail sales data shows resilience, with August retail sales reaching $732.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1][6]. - Core inflation is rising, with the core CPI reaching 2.9%, the highest level in three months, driven primarily by housing costs [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth has significantly slowed, with only 22,000 new jobs added in August, far below the expected 140,000 [1][12]. Macroeconomic Overview - The Michigan consumer confidence index for September is at 55.4, down 4.8% from August [1][6]. - August CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth is at its lowest since December 2024, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.3% [1][12][14]. - Consumer credit saw a moderate increase of $10.48 billion in July, indicating cautious borrowing behavior [1][19]. Industry Performance Essential Consumption - Alcohol sales in July were $6.23 billion, down 0.5% year-on-year, but the decline is slowing [2][26]. - Tobacco sales remained stable at $6.02 billion in July, with a CPI increase of 6.3% [2][31]. - Dairy product shipments reached $13.37 billion in July, showing moderate year-on-year growth [2][28]. - Beverage shipments totaled $12.05 billion in July, with a notable CPI increase of 4.6% [2][28]. Discretionary Consumption - Restaurant sales in August were $99.52 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer demand for dining out [2][33]. - Department store sales in August were $76.78 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% but a slight month-on-month decline [2][36]. - Apparel sales in August reached $27.18 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year, reflecting a strong rebound in clothing consumption [2][38]. Market Trends - The consumer sector shows a mixed performance, with discretionary consumption outperforming essential consumption [3][42]. - Essential consumption ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.1 billion, indicating investor caution [3][48]. - The report highlights that the essential consumption sector is facing significant outflows, reflecting a more cautious investment sentiment [3][48].

Group 1: Silver ETF Holdings - The iShares Silver Trust reported a holding of 15,361.84 tons of silver as of September 26, a decrease of 28.23 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On the same day, spot silver closed at $46.04 per ounce, marking a 1.95% increase, with intraday prices reaching a high of $46.62 and a low of $44.51 [1] Group 2: Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's consumer survey indicated a decline in consumer confidence, with the index dropping to 55.1 in September, a decrease of 3.1 points or approximately 5% from the previous month, and the lowest level since May [3] - The survey revealed that nearly 70% of American consumers expect inflation to exceed their income growth over the next year, a significant increase from less than 60% in September 2024 [3] - Approximately 65% of consumers anticipate a rise in unemployment over the next year, up from 57% in July 2025 and 35% a year ago [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The survey highlighted that consumer sentiment is broadly weakening across various demographics, with the exception of consumers with substantial stock portfolios, who showed more resilience [4] - Although inflation expectations for the next 12 months have slightly decreased, they remain high, while long-term inflation expectations have increased [4] - Overall, concerns about inflation have eased since the spring, indicating a potential shift in consumer sentiment [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in consumer confidence across all demographics in the U.S. due to concerns over inflation and unemployment [1] - The consumer confidence index for September is reported at 55.1, which represents a decrease of approximately 5% from August [1] - The consumer expectations index fell from 55.9 in August to 51.7 in September, indicating a pessimistic outlook among consumers [1] Group 2 - The expected probability of personal unemployment has slightly increased, reaching the highest level since March 2025 [1] - A significant 44% of consumers mentioned that high prices are eroding their personal financial situation, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1]

Tariff Impact - The U.S. has announced new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals, 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and 25% on heavy trucks, aimed at incentivizing domestic manufacturing [1][2]. Market Reactions - U.S. and European pharmaceutical stocks remained stable, while Asian pharmaceutical stocks declined. Packer, a truck manufacturer, and Wayfair, an online furniture retailer, saw stock price increases due to the tariff news [3]. Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 55.1 from 58.2, indicating concerns over high prices and job security, approaching the low seen in April [5][6]. Labor Market Data - Upcoming labor market data, including job openings and the jobs report, is crucial for understanding economic conditions, especially in light of potential government shutdowns affecting data release [7][8]. Global Manufacturing Insights - PMI surveys from the U.S., China, and the Eurozone will provide insights into global manufacturing health amidst tariff uncertainties, with recent data showing elevated input costs for U.S. companies [9][10][11]. Currency and Economic Trends - The weakening of the U.S. dollar against other currencies, particularly the euro, is noteworthy, as European and Asian equities have been outperforming due to currency strength [12]. Federal Reserve Commentary - Upcoming speeches from key Federal Reserve officials may provide insights into future monetary policy, especially in light of recent economic data [13][14].