大家都在讨论牛市，我却在股市上颗粒无收，难道我穿越了，伤心一分钟。 qgj8848 有幸经历过两次大牛市，07、15年，我的经验就是如果有牛市，就持仓不动，早晚会到，也 千万别想着高抛低吸，拿稳扶好。实在受不了、拿不住，就拿大盘指数，牛市大部分人都跑 不过指数，且掉头时也有时间跑。 其实，现在就拿证券ETF，牛市，证券迟早还要来一波。 另外到了牛市后期（指数涨幅较大后），少来论坛看消息，千万别被洗脑，变的是各种理 由，不变的是成交量。 e老实和尚 今年全A等权涨了20.51%，这意味着广大散户朋友随便买只股票平均收益都有20.51%。今 年是牛市无疑。不要试图预测市场，顺势而为，涨就跟随，将来跌了那是将来的事，目前不 必考虑。 这次长期逻辑变了， 以前上市套现，炒股挣钱之后都是把钱转出股市去买房，买车。 现在你在股市上套现后拿着钱能干什么？ 买房？（呵呵）。买车？（国补不是提前消费了一 轮了吗），还是存银行？（拿1%的利息）。 鼎级外星人 以前你错过了几次牛市？ 今年如果是你投资生涯第一次错过牛市，那不是你的错。不算遗憾。 某种程度上来说，甚至是一笔财富。 但如果这是你第二次，第三次，甚至第N次错过牛市， 那 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 东吴证券：中报前瞻 哪些行业在二季度业绩会有较好表现？ 近期上市公司将密集披露中报业绩预告，景气将成为关键的交易线索。结合基本面视角，我们认为二季 度业绩景气的方向主要集中在：1）上游工业金属、小金属；2）中游风电和出海方向的摩托车、逆变 器，以及有订单兑现预期的军工板块；3）下游国补消费品种以及创新药；4）金融地产板块的非银； 5）TMT板块的海外算力链、存储和游戏方向。 天风证券：政策红利持续加持 继续看好银行股 天风证券发布研报称，当前银行股价表现虽然和行业基本面可能有所"背离"，而未来银行投资策略更 需"见微知著"，即更需重视行业基本面的边际向好迹象：首先，负债成本预计将持续改善。其次，资产 收益预计将趋于平稳。最后，资产质量预计将维持稳健。基于以上，优质地区中小银行中重点推荐成都 银行、常熟银行；国股行中我们重点推荐农业银行、中国银行、邮储银行。 华泰证券：本轮供需两端形成合力后，3类光伏企业有望破茧重生 中信建投证券周策略：上证指数突破3500点，周五放量冲高回落，下周行情能否延续？ 本周市场整体表现出较好情绪，在大金融和地 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has adjusted the trading halt arrangements, indicating a significant long-term positive impact on the A-share market, especially regarding quantitative trading regulations [1] - The A-share market has shown a clear upward trend, with the index rising from 3040 points to 3510 points in just three months, an increase of nearly 500 points, exceeding many expectations [1] - The securities sector has played a crucial role in the recent market rally, and there is still potential for further growth in this sector next week [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance is enhancing long-term assessments for insurance companies, addressing the short-term focus previously seen in the A-share market, which often led to market volatility [3] - The upcoming opportunities in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) are significant, as it has lagged in performance and now has strong demand for a rebound [3] - The long-term assessment aligns well with the cyclical nature of the domestic technology industry, which typically operates on a 3 to 5-year cycle [3] Group 3 - A majority of market participants (over 70%) do not believe that the index has peaked, indicating growing optimism about the ongoing bull market [5] - The current market phase is characterized by skepticism, suggesting that the bull market is still in its growth stage [5] Group 4 - The index has reached around 3550 points, with expectations that it could target the 3600-point mark soon, despite some market manipulation observed [6] - While the index has risen, many investors are experiencing a disconnect, as the gains are primarily driven by the financial sector, particularly banks, leaving many retail investors behind [6] Group 5 - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% [7]

（原标题：和讯投顾齐俊强：拉指数不赚钱？） 指数回到 3500 点，不少朋友却发现账户资金没跟上，甚至还亏着 —— 这事儿不奇怪，因为现在的指数 上涨，本质是一场 "先搭台、后唱戏" 的阳谋，背后藏着资金撬动牛市的底层逻辑。? 先说说为啥指数涨了钱没回来。咱们的指数是 "权重说了算"，银行、保险、石油、券商这些大盘股， 市值占比高，稍微拉一拉就能带动指数飙升。比如某队拉中石油涨停，可能直接让指数涨 20 个点，但 大多数散户手里捏的是中小题材股 —— 这些票在行情初期往往是 "陪跑者"，权重股吸血式上涨时，资 金还没轮到它们，自然就出现 "指数狂欢，账户冷清" 的情况。? 再看某队强拉指数的核心目的：用最小的力气撬动最大的场外资金。牛市的本质是 "资金堆出来的"， 但场外资金有个特点：不见兔子不撒鹰。如果指数一直在 3300 点晃悠，大家会觉得 "还是熊市"，钱攥 在手里不敢进；但拉到 3500 点，再往 3700、4000 点冲，市场就会喊 "牛市来了"，观望的资金就会忍 不住入场。这就像开演唱会，先让明星上台热场，观众才会陆续进场坐满，不然场子冷清清的，谁愿意 来？? 所以在场内的朋友别着急，现在的 "不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bull market is not over, and the upward trend of the market remains intact due to three main reasons [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The banking sector's significant drop allows for the inflow of funds into small and mid-cap stocks, leading to a broad market rally [1]. - Despite the Shanghai Composite Index showing a "doji" candlestick pattern, the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index exhibited healthy trends, indicating that major funds are shifting towards the technology sector [1]. - Today's trading volume exceeded 1.7 trillion, marking the fifth occurrence this year, which is crucial for market confidence and potential upward movement [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The real estate, photovoltaic, and glass sectors have reached a temporary peak, while the non-involution sectors are expected to benefit from rising prices, particularly in the rare metals sector [2]. - The innovation drug sector is anticipated to continue reaching new highs due to multiple positive developments [2]. - The new regulations from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will remove underperforming stocks from the ChiNext Index, setting the stage for a potential surge in the technology sector next week [2].

这两天，金融股嘎嘎乱涨，全球银行股的这波行情确实亮眼。美国KBW银行指数涨幅49%，A股中证银行指数上涨59%，欧洲日本银行股也纷纷跟涨。表面 上看，这是市场对传统金融业价值的重新定义。但实际，显然又是拿美股炒A股的套路，再度上演。 我们看，美国KBW银行指数，从2023年6月就开始动手了。A股银行是个从2024年1月开始启动的。显然依旧是美股先炒起来，然后A股机构拷贝了美股的逻 辑。 从炒医药、炒AI，到现在炒氢能源、银行都是如此。有人炒都失败。原因A股牛市有两大特征，但不是人人都清楚，一糊涂就上错车、下错站了。 一，牛市的本质是一场淘汰赛 牛股都有两个共同特征： 1. 必有人抢：好东西都是稀缺的，有资金博弈的股票才值得关注 2. 必面临洗：大资金要涨得高，就必须洗掉跟风盘 这两点看不清，就很容易上挫折下错站。 二，血淋淋的案例：为什么你总是上错车 说到上错车，我想起2025年那波关税摩擦后的反弹行情。当时指数眼看要创两年新高，但实际个股表现呢？不到五成！很多散户以为行情好了随便买都能 赚，结果一拿就是套牢。 看看这两只股票的对比： 下图这个股票，震荡后显著拉升。 另一个震荡的股票，结果却完全不行。 结果差 ...

最近这两周，大A的走势非常强势。 一路从不到3400点，猛涨到了最高3500点以上。 今天收市的时候， 大A已经站上了3509点，创下今年上证指数的新高。 本来大家都想着，今年年初AI那一波风口带动大涨之后，今年大A大概率就这样了，没有多少上 涨空间了，最多也就是3400点，低一点可能会跌回3200甚至3100点。 但万万没想到，大A现在竟然突破了之前的高点，向着新高去了。 指数涨到新高之后，对于很多人来说，那问题就随之而来： 这一波冲高行情，是不是意味着国内A股终于要迎来牛市？ 我们的股市，是不是已经开始出现真正的财富机会？ 如果你想知道答案，我建议你把这篇文章看到最后。 要看大A是否已经进入牛市，核心是要评估一点： 市场到底有没有牛市的基础。 从大A以及海外股市过往的历史来看，一个市场要想形成牛市，必须具备下面几点： 第一，充足的场外资金 所谓场外资金，其实很好理解，你就理解成站在股市门外等待入场的资金就行。 这里的场外资金， 既包括内资，也包括外资。 只要这些资金有入场的意愿，无论这些资金来自哪里，都能算做是场外资金。 任何一个牛市，都离不开场外资金入场。 因为充足的场外资金，意味着后续市场流动性充足， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has successfully crossed the 3500-point mark, driven by the banking sector and other financial institutions, with analysts suggesting that this breakthrough is supported by policy backing, financial strength, and stabilizing economic data [5][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3500 points, supported by gains in the banking, real estate, coal, and brokerage sectors [3][5]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.49 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [3]. - Analysts predict that the Shanghai Composite Index may challenge the resistance level of 3674 points in the future [18]. Group 2: Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector has reached new historical highs, with major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China rising by 2.93% [7]. - Over 10 listed banks have announced plans for dividend distributions for the 2024 fiscal year, with total annual dividends expected to reach 632 billion yuan, marking a record high [9]. - Current valuations of A-shares compared to H-shares remain attractive under the PB-ROE framework, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the banking sector [10]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - The recent breakthrough at 3500 points is characterized by lower trading volume but healthier market conditions compared to previous instances [18][25]. - Key variables to monitor for the sustainability of the current market trend include maintaining trading volumes above 1 trillion yuan, the implementation of policies, and external risks such as U.S. Federal Reserve meetings and foreign capital flows [30][31]. - Suggested investment directions include focusing on policy beneficiaries, technology sectors like robotics, and defensive sectors such as banking and utilities, which provide high dividend yields [32].

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index has reached a new high, but the number of individual stocks rising simultaneously has decreased, indicating a concentration in a few large tech companies [2][4] - Historical data suggests that narrow market breadth often precedes weak performance, with a notable correlation between the number of stocks hitting new highs and future returns [4] - The current market dynamics reflect a reliance on a small percentage of S&P 500 constituents for returns, with only 10% of stocks driving the index's performance, significantly lower than the historical average of 22% [4] Market Breadth Analysis - The analysis from Oppenheimer highlights that a broad market participation is crucial for sustaining upward trends, as most stocks need to be involved in the rally [5] - The S&P 500 equal-weight index has not reached a new high since November 29, indicating a lack of improvement in market participation [5] - The market's internal structure shows vulnerability, with conflicting signals emerging after a two-month rebound, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current rally [5][6] Economic and Policy Context - The ongoing trade war and recent tariff announcements have created uncertainty, impacting market sentiment and leading to a slight decline in the S&P 500 index [6] - The current bull market, lasting 32 months, has been characterized by insufficient market breadth, raising alarms about the disproportionate influence of a few stocks on the index [6] - Expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could act as a catalyst for improving market breadth, as current tight monetary policy is seen as a constraint on favorable market conditions [6] Small Cap Performance - Recent trading in small-cap stocks has shown positive signs, with the Russell 2000 index recently surpassing its 200-day moving average [6] - However, a decline in small-cap stocks could signal a fading rebound and set the stage for seasonal volatility in the latter part of the third quarter [6]

截至2025年7月10日 13:51，中证全指金融地产指数(000992)强势上涨1.60%，成分股中银证券(601696)、绿地控股(600606)10cm涨停，深深房A(000029) 上涨9.81%，中油资本(000617)，新城控股(601155)等个股跟涨。金融地产ETF(159940)上涨1.64%， 冲击6连涨。 金融地产ETF(159940)，场外联接(广发金融地产联接A：001469；广发金融地产联接C：002979)。 流动性方面，金融地产ETF盘中成交911.29万元。拉长时间看，截至7月9日，金融地产ETF近1周日均成交1018.93万元。 规模方面，金融地产ETF最新规模达10.01亿元。 截至7月9日，金融地产ETF近1年净值上涨42.84%，指数股票型基金排名402/2907，居于前13.83%。从收益能力看，截至2025年7月9日，金融地产ETF 自成立以来，最高单月回报为24.06%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为29.82%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.00%。截至2025年7月9日，金融地产 ETF近3个月超越基准年化收益为7.20%。 金融地产ETF紧密跟踪中证全指金 ...