特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议，仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损，本公众 号及作者概不承担任何责任。 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区，专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下，使资产获得稳健增长。 快捷查询： 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 看一眼今年各指数涨幅 | 指数涨幅统计(刷新) 历史数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 本日涨幅 | 本周涨幅 | 本月涨幅 | 本季涨幅 | 本年涨幅 | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 3203.17 | -1.23% | -1.25% | 4.93% | -1.08% | 49.57% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | 1636.70 | -0.36% | 0.15% | 3.32% | -4.68% | 46.30% | | 899050 | 北证50 | 1440.43 | -0.70% | -1.54% | 3.80 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is set to close with a lackluster performance, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit gains, while the anticipated seasonal rally has failed to materialize [1][2] Market Performance - As of 7:07 AM New York time, S&P 500 futures are down 0.2%, narrowing the index's 2025 gain to 17%. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.3%, and Dow futures are down 0.1% [1][2] - Silver prices have significantly declined, experiencing four consecutive days of volatility exceeding 5% [1][2] Investor Sentiment - In 2025, optimism surrounding the economic potential of artificial intelligence has driven strong returns for investors, although the journey has been turbulent due to U.S. trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over high valuations [1][2] - As December comes to a close, market momentum has faded, with traders locking in substantial profits before the holidays and deferring major decisions until after the break, leading to the absence of the expected "Santa Claus rally" [1][2] Fund Manager Insights - According to Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank, after a stellar year for the stock market and high positioning in late November, fund managers may have closed positions and adjusted their allocations based on benchmarks [1][2] - The basic expectation is that the bull market will continue, but volatility is expected to increase, ultimately resulting in mid-single-digit returns [1][2]

三问赢时胜：为什么行业景气度高涨业绩反而下滑？为什么财务核算问题频发？为什么实控人在监管函 后急于减持？ 作者 | 观韬 编辑 | 小白 随着金融科技板块在2025年12月初的集体躁动，赢时胜（300377.SZ）的股价在12月5日午后冲高涨 停，当天成交额高达17.15亿，换手率达到13.76%。随后的交易日，赢时胜仍然迈着碎步小阳线，持 续上涨至今。 与股价上涨形成鲜明对比的是，赢时胜的实际控制人唐球在这一期间进行了大手笔减持。 更有意思的是，赢时胜业绩反而从2024年第四季度开始急转直下。2024年第三季度，公司还能实现 4025万净利润，但第四季度就出现巨亏，此后一直未能彻底扭转颓势。 2025年第一季度，赢时胜亏损6899万；第二季度亏损收窄至1019万；第三季度勉强扭亏为盈，实现净 利润3597万，但同比仍下滑10.62%。 从单季度营收表现看，牛市来临之后，赢时胜的单季度业绩表现跟牛市之前并无两样，甚至比2023年 和2024年同期数据更差一些。 （来源：Choice数据，制图：市值风云APP） 究其根本原因，与同花顺和东方财富主要面向C端用户提供金融信息服务，牛市中交易量和用户活跃 度大增，会 ...

格隆汇12月30日｜投资策略及资产配置主管廖嘉豪指，预期2026年牛市持续，但波动犹存，维持超配大 型股，受惠盈利增长，预期持续高企且不断上升，人工智能(AI)发展并非泡沫，企业仍在加速应用AI， 维持美国增长股仍是投资者防守性部署的策略。美联储降息兼买债，货币政策转向增加市场流动性，加 上放松监管、银行资产负债表强劲，以及贷存比例低企，有利明年债务杠杆健康增长，美国或可在明年 继续强势。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

华尔街已形成罕见的乐观共识：美股将在2026年实现连续第四年上涨，创下近二十年来最长连涨纪录。 12月29日，据彭博报道，在标普500指数自2022年10月低点反弹约90%之后，卖方策略师几乎完全放弃 了看空立场。据彭博的一项调查显示，在受访的21位市场预测者中，没有任何一位预测明年股市会下 跌。华尔街的平均预测意味着标普500指数在2026年将再上涨9%。 尽管人工智能泡沫、美联储政策走向以及特朗普第二任期的不确定性仍是悬而未决的风险，但华尔街策 略师们选择了集体乐观。如果这一极度乐观的一致预期成真，美股将迎来全球金融危机爆发前夕以来最 长的年度上涨周期。其中最为乐观的预测如果实现，标普500指数将自1990年代互联网泡沫以来，首次 出现连续四年两位数回报的盛况。 报道称，这种步调一致的乐观情绪，标志着策略师们在经历了数年"预测失效"后的彻底转向。面对股市 在动荡中展现出的惊人韧性，此前看空的分析师（摩根大通等）被迫不断上调预期，以追赶市场的实际 表现。 值得注意的是，尽管没有策略师预测大跌，但部分人士仍在提示风险。资深市场策略师Ed Yardeni预计 标普500指数明年将收于7700点，较上周五收盘价上 ...

Core Viewpoint - A consensus among major banks and boutique investment firms indicates that the U.S. stock market is expected to rise for the fourth consecutive year by 2026, marking the longest streak in nearly two decades [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index has surged approximately 90% since its low in October 2022, despite concerns over the potential decline of the AI boom, economic conditions, and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1]. - Analysts surveyed predict a median year-end target for the S&P 500 index in 2026, suggesting an additional upside of about 9% for the coming year, with no analysts forecasting a decline [1]. - Market strategist Ed Yardeni expresses concern over the prevailing optimism, noting that the long duration of positive trends has led to a collective bullish sentiment that may be worrisome [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The optimism in Wall Street is bolstered by the resilience of the U.S. economy, which continues to show strength despite challenges posed by trade policies and the impact of AI investments on tech stock valuations [5]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of nearly 20% from mid-February to early April, prompting strategists to revise their forecasts downward before adjusting them upward again due to a rapid market rebound [4]. - The economic growth in the third quarter was the fastest in two years, driven by strong consumer and business spending, alongside more stable trade policies [13]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Christopher Harvey, a senior strategist, maintains a year-end target of 7,450 points for the S&P 500 index in 2026, indicating an 8% increase, while cautioning against macro risks that may disrupt the market [11]. - Morgan Stanley has shifted to a bullish stance, predicting the S&P 500 index will rise to 7,500 points, supported by robust corporate earnings and declining interest rates [12]. - Savita Subramanian from Bank of America anticipates the S&P 500 index will reach 7,100 points in 2026, but warns that high valuations may limit further gains [12].

这些现金目前以短期美国国债形式持有，年化收益率仅为3.6%。这一决策释放出明确信号：在巴菲特 看来，当前股市的潜在回报率，已不足以覆盖这一无风险利率——更何况该利率水平仅略高于当前通胀 率。 巴菲特历次牛市中的操作轨迹 巴菲特从不直接公开评判股市整体走势及估值水平，但他的行动永远胜于雄辩。 智通财经APP获悉，伯克希尔·哈撒韦(BRK.A.US)目前持有的现金规模，已超过多家知名大型企业的总 市值。随着现金储备逼近4000亿美元大关，这家由即将卸任的沃伦・巴菲特执掌的综合企业集团正将这 笔资金投向美国国债这一避险资产，而与此同时，全球其他投资者却在狂热追逐人工智能(AI)概念股。 巴菲特究竟在向投资者传递什么信号?纵观其漫长的投资生涯，即使他未曾公开发表言论，其行动本身 已是对投资者发出的震耳警钟。随着这位传奇投资人确定于2026年初退休，当前举措或可视为其对华尔 街的最后警示。 下文将解析为何巴菲特的巨额现金储备值得高度关注，以及这一信号对2026年的投资者具有何种意义。 创纪录的现金储备 自2023年牛市开启以来，伯克希尔便持续积累现金。最新数据显示，其现金储备已从最初的1000亿美元 飙升至近4000亿 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market in China, particularly the balance between new and traditional economies as of 2026 [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Environment - China's GDP has maintained a nominal growth rate of around 4% since the second half of 2023 [1][2]. - The broad asset management strategy has shifted from being long on bonds and short on stocks to being long on stocks and short on bonds, indicating an increase in risk asset allocation [1][2]. Market Outlook for 2026 - A systemic rebalancing between new (currently 18% weight) and traditional economies is anticipated, similar to the adjustments seen between new energy and traditional energy from 2019 to 2021 [1][4]. - High valuation and high volatility assets may not sustain long-term market support, necessitating a style switch for stable development [4][6]. - The market is expected to enter a positive driving phase by 2026, characterized by a "long on stocks, short on bonds" trend, leading to a dual rise in both stock prices and equity allocation [5]. Valuation and Performance - High valuation and high volatility assets may perform well in the short term but are likely to see a decline in long-term returns, with a potential decrease in Sharpe ratios [6][7]. - The technology growth sector contributed significantly to the CSI 300 index returns in Q3, but its weight was only 25%, indicating structural imbalance and a potential shift towards value styles [6][7]. Nominal Economic Predictions - The expected rise in the deflation index will likely improve nominal economic conditions, increasing inflationary pressures and enhancing corporate profitability, which may provide more investment opportunities in traditional industries [8][9]. Market Characteristics and Trends - The market is transitioning from recessionary trading to a stagflation or shallow recovery pattern, benefiting undervalued, high-quality assets [3][8]. - The anticipated bull market in 2026 is expected to see index growth and reduced volatility, with value and quality assets playing a more sustained role in market support [9][12]. Investment Style Dynamics - In a pro-cyclical environment, high valuation and high volatility assets perform well, but in a counter-cyclical phase, precise stock selection becomes crucial for excess returns [10]. - A divergence followed by a convergence trend is expected among different stock types over the next two years, with value stocks experiencing valuation expansion and quality stocks facing compression [11][12]. Other Important Insights - The overall market dynamics suggest that policy guidance will play a significant role in balancing new and traditional economies, facilitating a smoother transition towards a more stable economic environment [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential for increased institutional buying power, which may drive the market index to break through its current resistance levels due to a combination of factors including a rebound in US tech stocks, appreciation of the RMB, and rising prices of metals like gold, silver, and copper [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved an "eight consecutive days of gains," indicating a recovery in market trading volume and a positive shift in external uncertainties [2] - Institutional buying power is expected to strengthen as overseas capital flows back into Chinese assets, driven by a weak dollar environment and narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US [2][3] Group 2 - The private equity fund sector is experiencing significant growth, with the total management scale increasing by 1.04 trillion yuan to reach 7.0076 trillion yuan in October 2025, and continuing to rise to 7.0383 trillion yuan in November [3] - The asset allocation of private equity funds has increased, with the average position rising to 66%, approaching historical averages seen during bull markets [3] - The current market conditions, including favorable policies and improved sentiment, are expected to enhance institutional buying power, potentially pushing the index closer to its yearly high [2][3]

Gold Market - The recent Christmas holiday in Europe and the US has led to a quieter news environment for gold [2] - The gold bull market this year is driven by multiple favorable factors, including global central bank purchases disrupting supply-demand balance, a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards easing, and concerns over the US dollar's credibility due to Trump's trade policies and rising national debt [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, concerns over US dollar credibility and sovereign debt are expected to persist, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions, suggesting that the gold bull market may continue [2] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau Special Research believes that with lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, long-term support for gold prices remains unchanged, although after two years of a bull market, prices are likely to oscillate between consolidation and continuation [2] - On the technical front, recent price action shows a strong upward trend, with support found at the 20-day moving average [2] Oil Market - The oil market has been under pressure this year due to oversupply, leading to weak price performance [3] - Future prospects indicate that expanded sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US and Europe may create obstacles for buyers, providing some support for oil prices despite no significant decline in Russian oil output [3] - Oil-producing countries have significantly increased production this year, particularly non-OPEC nations, but the urgency for further increases from Saudi Arabia has diminished, as evidenced by OPEC+ pausing production increases in Q1 of next year [3] - Demand-side improvements are anticipated as global trade conditions become clearer, with recent reports from major global agencies raising oil demand growth forecasts [3][4] - The technical outlook shows a potential for a short-term price rebound, with key support at $58 and resistance at $60 [4] US Dollar Index - There is considerable internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts, which may limit the downside for the dollar [5] - The potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair by the US President could challenge the Fed's independence, especially given Trump's preference for loose monetary policy, which may exert downward pressure on the dollar [5] - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 15.5%, with an 84.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged [6] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with recent price action showing signs of stabilization, but the dollar remains below the 20-day moving average [6] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been experiencing a period of high-level consolidation over the past month, with no clear directional movement until a breakout occurs [7] - The index is currently above the 20-day moving average, and a bullish crossover between the 20-day and 62-day moving averages suggests a higher likelihood of further gains [7] Copper Market - The copper market is showing strong bullish momentum, with recent price action indicating a breakout from a consolidation range [8] - The 20-day moving average continues to trend upward, indicating that bullish sentiment is dominant [8] - Key support is noted at $5.62, which will be monitored for potential price corrections [8] Market Overview - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that oil consumption has increased by over 1 million barrels per day annually over the past two years, with projections suggesting a potential increase of 20 million barrels per day by 2050 [9] - Saudi government data indicates an 11.8% increase in commodity exports in October, with oil exports rising by 4.0% [9] - An agreement has been reached between Iraq, the Kurdistan region, and international companies to extend the oil export agreement for three months until March 31 of next year [10]