【环球时报记者 肖震冬 环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁】美国总统特朗普对美国劳工部上周五所发布 就业数据的攻击持续发酵，其在5日接受媒体采访时再次表示该数据"具有政治性"，称数据"完全被操纵 了"。这引发了媒体、市场等各方对美国经济数据真实性与可靠性的担忧。而在数据"造假"争议吸引大 量关注之际，美国老百姓的收入分化日渐明显，消费活动也已经发生实质性变化。综合《华尔街日报》 和英国《金融时报》的报道，美国低收入群体薪资增速明显放缓，使该群体更易受到美国政府多项政策 的负面影响。同时，受市场和政策不确定性影响，美国消费者普遍存在焦虑情绪，正在削减开支。 数据存在 " 党派倾向 " 8月1日，美国劳工部发布的非农就业数据显示，7月份美国新增就业岗位7.3万个，远低于市场预期，同 时，5月和6月的新增就业岗位数量在修正后大幅下调，合计比最初公布的数据少了25.8万个。《华盛顿 邮报》5日报道称，这是疫情之外有记录以来"最陡峭"的两个月向下修正。 《金融时报》援引美国亚特兰大联邦储备银行的数据报道称，美国低收入群体薪资增速放缓幅度超过高 收入群体。截至6月，薪资最低的25%劳工的薪资年增速放缓至3.7%，低于整体劳动 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first quarter, net sales increased by 12% to $701 million, with homes sold rising by 8% to 7,215 homes [8][14] - Consolidated gross profit increased by 16% to $190 million, with gross margin expanding by 90 basis points to 26.2% [17] - Net income attributable to the company rose by $19 million to $65 million, translating to earnings of $1.13 per diluted share, compared to $0.79 per diluted share in the prior year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales to the independent retail channel increased year-over-year, supported by digital marketing and the addition of independent distribution points [10] - Community sales were up due to new products and strong engagement from the sales team, although moderation is anticipated in the near term [11] - Builder developer channel sales grew, with a solid pipeline and increased adoption of off-site construction [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. factory-built housing revenue increased by 10%, with the average selling price per home rising by 4% to $95,000 [14] - Canadian revenue reached $30 million, a 50% increase in homes sold, although the average selling price decreased by 3% to $120,500 [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on customer-centric strategies and has added experienced executives to enhance its leadership team [4][5] - Investments in new product strategies aim to attract new buyers with appealing home styles and floor plans [6] - The company is monitoring legislative developments, such as the Road to Housing Act, which supports off-site built homes [7] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The company anticipates flat to low single-digit revenue growth in the second quarter compared to the prior year, citing slower order rates [22] - Management is encouraged by customer engagement and quoting activity, despite a cautious consumer sentiment [22] - The company remains focused on balancing fixed costs and production optimization in response to market dynamics [22] Other Important Information - The company generated $75 million in operating cash flows and returned $50 million to shareholders through share repurchases [20] - A $200 million revolving credit facility was amended and extended, providing liquidity for strategic initiatives [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Commentary on the current market backdrop and order rates - Management noted stronger community business in Q1 but anticipates moderation in Q2 due to consumer dynamics [27][28] Question: Performance in June compared to expectations - The community business significantly impacted Q1 results, with improved pricing and lower material costs contributing to a strong quarter [30][31] Question: Impact of delayed shipments on revenue - Management did not quantify the impact of delayed shipments but acknowledged it contributed to the difference between expectations and actual results [32][33] Question: Community channel moderation and geographic dispersion - Management indicated that while community orders were robust in Q1, they do not expect the same growth rate in Q2 due to varying demand across geographies [38][39] Question: Outlook for Canadian market recovery - The Alberta region showed strength, but the overall Canadian market remains dynamic and subject to consumer challenges [42][43] Question: Contribution of Eiseman Homes to revenue - Eiseman Homes contributed one month of revenue since its acquisition on May 30, but did not impact backlog numbers [44] Question: Gross margin expectations and pricing dynamics - Management expects gross margins to remain in the 25% to 26% range, influenced by product mix and local demand [48][49] Question: Tariff impact on material costs - The estimated unmitigated impact of tariffs on material costs is approximately 1%, which is already considered in the guidance [68][72]

Group 1 - The company anticipates revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, to be approximately RMB 2.4 billion to RMB 2.55 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% compared to RMB 4.13 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is projected to decrease by 23% to 24% [1] - The adjusted net profit (non-IFRS measure) is expected to decline by 39% to 40% for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to economic uncertainty and recent policies that have led to reduced consumption of liquor, particularly in business and social dining and gifting occasions [1] - The relatively high revenue and adjusted net profit figures for the six months ending June 30, 2024, also impact the year-on-year comparisons [1]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported a basic net loss of HKD 86 million for the first half of 2025, compared to a profit of HKD 74 million in the same period last year, primarily due to an increase in impairment provisions for development properties to HKD 211 million [1] - The group's revenue increased by 5% to HKD 654 million, while operating profit decreased by 40% to HKD 125 million, mainly attributed to development properties [1] - The basic loss per share was HKD 0.28 [1] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Hotel revenue rose by 1% to HKD 426 million, with operating losses reduced by 33% to HKD 29 million [1] - Revenue from Hong Kong increased by 4% to HKD 383 million, with operating losses narrowing by 69% to HKD 11 million, mainly due to an increase in occupancy rates [1] - Mainland revenue fell by 17% to HKD 43 million, with operating losses widening to HKD 18 million [1] Group 3: Investment Property and Development - Investment property revenue decreased by 22% to HKD 96 million, with operating profit down 23% to HKD 85 million, primarily affected by a decline in retail rental income [1] - Development property revenue increased to HKD 58 million, but the profit was minimal, resulting in an operating loss of HKD 1 million [1] Group 4: Market Conditions - The local consumption in Hong Kong remains weak, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties, with residents favoring nearby regions with competitive prices for travel [2] - Encouraging signs of recovery are emerging, with inbound tourist arrivals to Hong Kong increasing by 12% year-on-year [2] - Retail sales in Hong Kong ended a long-term decline in May, growing by 2.4% compared to last year, which could further boost local consumption if the trend continues [2]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported a basic net loss of HKD 86 million for the first half of 2025, compared to a profit of HKD 74 million in the same period last year, primarily due to an increase in impairment provisions for development properties to HKD 211 million [1] - The group's revenue increased by 5% to HKD 654 million, while operating profit decreased by 40% to HKD 125 million, mainly attributed to development properties [1] - The basic loss per share was HKD 0.28 [1] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Hotel revenue rose by 1% to HKD 426 million, with operating losses reduced by 33% to HKD 29 million [1] - Revenue from Hong Kong increased by 4% to HKD 383 million, with operating losses narrowing by 69% to HKD 11 million, mainly due to an increase in occupancy rates [1] - Mainland revenue fell by 17% to HKD 43 million, with operating losses widening to HKD 18 million [1] Group 3: Investment Property and Development - Investment property revenue decreased by 22% to HKD 96 million, with operating profit down by 23% to HKD 85 million, primarily affected by a decline in retail rental income [1] - Development property revenue increased to HKD 58 million, but the profit was minimal, resulting in an operating loss of HKD 1 million [1] Group 4: Market Conditions - The local consumption in Hong Kong remains weak, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties, with residents favoring nearby regions with competitive prices for travel [2] - Encouraging signs of recovery are emerging, with inbound tourist arrivals to Hong Kong increasing by 12% year-on-year [2] - Retail sales in Hong Kong ended a long-term decline in May, growing by 2.4% compared to last year, which could further boost local consumption if the trend continues [2] Group 5: Challenges in Mainland China - The hotel industry in mainland China continues to face challenges due to weak economic growth and low consumer spending [2] - Intense competition among regional attractions is further exacerbating operational pressures on domestic hotel enterprises [2]

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index indicates a continued recovery in the Chinese economy, with the consumption index showing a narrowing contraction, reflecting stable domestic demand and improving consumer confidence[1] - The investment index is in the expansion zone, driven by policy support for infrastructure and manufacturing investments, providing strong support for economic recovery[1] - The production index shows mild expansion, indicating a moderate recovery in production activities with strong supply-side resilience[1] Service and Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index stands at 50.0%, indicating overall stability, with tourism and public services maintaining expansion due to summer holidays[2] - The manufacturing PMI has dropped to 49.3%, remaining in contraction territory, primarily due to seasonal factors and external uncertainties[2] - The new orders index for manufacturing fell to 49.4%, and new export orders dropped to 47.1%, indicating weakened domestic and external demand[2] Global Economic Context - In Q2 2025, the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6%, rebounding from a -0.5% growth in Q1[5] - The US net exports contributed 5 percentage points to GDP growth, while consumer spending increased by 1.4%[5] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and raised inflation forecasts for the next two fiscal years, with core CPI expected to reach 2.7% in FY2025[6]

Core Insights - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons in Q2 2025, with a value surge of 45% to $132 billion, marking a historical high [1] - The growth was primarily driven by investment demand, central bank purchases, regional market differentiation, and structural changes in consumption trends [2] Investment Demand: Core Growth Engine - Gold ETFs and similar products were the main drivers of demand growth, with a net inflow of 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with slight outflows in the same period of 2024 [3] - Cumulative inflows for the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020, reflecting institutional investors' hedging against geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [3] - In China, gold ETF inflows amounted to 464 billion RMB (approximately $65 billion), with holdings increasing to 200 tons and assets under management (AUM) surging 116% year-on-year to 152.5 billion RMB [3] - Demand for gold bars and coins grew by 11% year-on-year to 307 tons, with Chinese investors leading globally with a demand of 115 tons, a 44% increase year-on-year [3] Central Bank Purchases: Long-term Support - Global central banks net purchased 166 tons of gold in Q2 2025, remaining at historically high levels, 41% above the average from 2010-2021 [6] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing gold holdings in the next 12 months, highlighting a trend towards de-dollarization [6] - The People's Bank of China added 6 tons in Q2, totaling 19 tons for the first half of the year, with official reserves reaching 2299 tons, accounting for 6.7% of foreign reserves [6] Consumption Demand: Structural Changes - Global gold jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, nearing 2020 pandemic lows, with China's demand dropping 20% year-on-year to 69 tons, the weakest Q2 since 2007 [7] - Despite the decline, high-end jewelry demand remained resilient, while the mass market shifted towards lighter, more innovative designs, leading to a 21% increase in consumption value to $36 billion [7] - India's demand decreased by 17% year-on-year, although pre-wedding season purchases and trade-in policies mitigated some of the decline [8] Price and Supply: Market Balance Amid High Prices - The average gold price in Q2 reached $3280.35 per ounce, a 40% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [12] - In China, the average physical gold price surpassed 1000 RMB per gram, with retail prices fluctuating between 984-1018 RMB per gram [13] - Gold mine production increased by 3% year-on-year to 909 tons, a record high for the quarter, while recycled gold supply grew by only 4%, indicating a reluctance among holders to sell [14] - Overall, gold prices rose by 26% in the first half of the year, outperforming most mainstream assets [15] Regional Market: Differentiation and Resilience - The Chinese market exhibited strong investment but weak consumption, with total retail gold demand reaching 245 tons, a 28% increase year-on-year, despite weak jewelry demand [16] - In India, demand for gold bars and coins rose to 46 tons, but jewelry consumption fell by 17% due to price-sensitive consumers reducing purchases [17] - European demand doubled due to post-energy crisis risk aversion, while U.S. demand for bars and coins fell to 9 tons due to a high-interest rate environment [17] - The growth in gold demand underscores its dual value as a safe-haven asset and a long-term allocation tool [17] Future Outlook - Geopolitical developments, monetary policy trajectories, and changes in consumer behavior will be key variables influencing the gold market [19]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the impact of weak employment data on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, increasing the pressure for a rate cut in September [1][4]. - The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000 [2]. - The revisions of previous months' employment data revealed a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined, indicating a deteriorating labor market [2][3]. Group 2 - The unemployment rate slightly increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, while the labor participation rate is declining, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][3]. - Economic uncertainties, including tariff policies and immigration restrictions, are contributing to the slowdown in job creation and hiring [3]. - Analysts are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including CPI reports, to assess the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job growth has sharply cooled over the past three months, indicating a slowdown in the labor market amid economic uncertainty [1] Employment Data Summary - In July, non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, while the previous two months' job gains were revised down by nearly 260,000 [1] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% [1] Labor Market Conditions - The data suggests that the labor market is not only slowing down but also that it is becoming more difficult for unemployed Americans to find jobs [1] - Wage growth has essentially stagnated, adding further risk to already slowing consumer and business spending [1]

Core Insights - Global gold demand continues to grow strongly against a backdrop of record-high prices, with total demand in Q2 increasing by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons, and value soaring by 45% to a record $132 billion [1] Group 1: Global Gold Demand - In Q2, gold ETF inflows in China reached 464 billion RMB (approximately $65 billion, 61 tons), marking the strongest quarterly performance ever [1][3] - Global gold ETF demand has significantly increased for the second consecutive quarter, becoming a key driver of overall demand [1] - Investment in gold bars and coins has also surged, driven by rising prices and gold's safe-haven attributes [1] Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks globally slowed their gold purchases in Q2, with a total of 166 tons added to official reserves, the lowest level since 2022, but still 41% higher than the quarterly average from 2010 to 2021 [1][2] - Despite the slowdown, central bank gold purchases remain at significant levels due to ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, with expectations of continued buying in the next 12 months [2] Group 3: Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese market led the ETF inflow trend, with total inflows for the first half of the year reaching 631 billion RMB (approximately $88 billion) [3] - The total assets under management for Chinese gold ETFs doubled, achieving a growth rate of 116% to reach 152.5 billion RMB (approximately $21.3 billion) by the end of June [3] Group 4: Price Trends and Market Impact - The average LBMA gold price reached a record of $3280.35 per ounce in Q2, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase and a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase [4] - Despite record prices, recycling activities remain low, with Indian consumers increasingly opting for old-for-new exchanges or using gold as collateral for loans [4] Group 5: Investment and Inventory Changes - Off-market investments and inventory changes contributed an additional 170 tons to demand in Q2, indicating healthy levels of institutional investment and sustained interest from high-net-worth individuals [5]