Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive month, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4% [1] - The Fed announced the end of its quantitative tightening cycle, effective December 1, halting the balance sheet reduction that began in 2022 [2] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the appropriateness of the rate cuts, with some members advocating for more aggressive actions [4][6] Group 2 - The current economic situation in the U.S. is complex, with rising unemployment at 4.3% and inflation still above the Fed's target at 3% [6][20] - The lack of key economic data due to the government shutdown complicates decision-making for policymakers, who must rely on private sector data [8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts in December are not aligned with the Fed's cautious stance, as indicated by Chairman Powell's comments [9][11] Group 3 - The economic landscape shows a bifurcation, where high-income individuals are benefiting from stock market gains while middle and low-income groups face employment anxieties [18][20] - The S&P Case-Shiller home price index showed only a 1.5% year-over-year increase, the lowest since July 2023, indicating a cooling in the housing market [13] - The Fed's policy adjustments aim to alleviate financing costs and enhance liquidity, but the underlying issues of income disparity complicate the effectiveness of these measures [20][23]

10月31日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 郭嘉昆表示，中美元首在釜山会晤期间讨论了经贸关系等议题，同意加强经贸等领域的合作，中方主管部门昨 天介绍了吉隆坡经贸磋商的成果。中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢，正如习近平主席指出，经贸应该成为中美 关系的压舱石和推进器，而不是绊脚石和冲突点。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 郭嘉昆指出，中方愿同美方一道，落实好两国元首重要共识，本着平等、尊重、互惠原则，通过对话协商，不 断压缩问题清单，拉长合作清单，推动中美关系健康、稳定、可持续发展，为世界注入更多的确定性和稳定 性。 路透社记者提问，美方昨天表示，中方宣布将暂停实施10月9日公布的稀土出口管制措施一年，请问这适用于 所有国家，还是仅针对美国？ "具体问题建议你向中方的主管部门进行询问。"郭嘉昆说。 综合自：央视新闻、环球网、北京日报 责编：李丹 校对：吕久彪 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 路透社记者提问，美国财长贝森特表示，中美贸易协定最早可以于下周进行签署。中方对此有何评 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin expanding its balance sheet again early next year, which may alleviate investor concerns regarding the significant borrowing needs of the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve officially ended its three-year quantitative tightening program, with Chairman Powell indicating that the central bank may soon become a major buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds again [1] - Analysts predict that the Fed will start purchasing enough Treasury bonds to expand its balance sheet in the first quarter of next year, likely in January or by March at the latest [1] - Monthly net purchases of $35 billion in Treasury bonds are anticipated, which could lead to a monthly expansion of approximately $20 billion in the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Market anxiety has eased as expectations grow that the Fed will end quantitative tightening, alongside signs of potential improvement in budget deficits [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased significantly from a peak of 4.8% in January to below 4.1%, driven by increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts [2] - The additional yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries over interest rate swaps has halved since April, indicating that worst-case concerns about sovereign debt supply may have been exaggerated [2] Group 3: Yield Curve Dynamics - The easing of borrowing tensions is reflected in the flattening of the government bond yield curve, with the extra yield on 30-year Treasuries over 2-year bonds dropping from 1.3% in September to 1% [3] - Efforts by policymakers in the U.S., U.K., and Japan to shorten government bond issuance terms have also alleviated concerns about an oversupply of long-term government debt [3] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The end of quantitative tightening by the Fed is seen as a response to signs of stress in short-term financing markets, reflecting banks' desire to hold more reserves [3] - The current situation does not indicate a return to aggressive quantitative easing, which involves purchasing large amounts of government debt to inject liquidity into the financial system [3] - Despite recent positive developments, concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal deficits remain, with expectations that the debt-to-GDP ratio may exceed that of Italy later in the decade [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The core viewpoint is that the gold market is currently supported by safe-haven demand due to ongoing risks of a U.S. government shutdown and uncertainties in fiscal and political matters, but lacks strong buying momentum to break through the $4050 resistance level [2] - Market consensus indicates that gold prices are likely to oscillate between $3900 and $4050 in the short term, with a potential breakout contingent on a sustained decline in the U.S. dollar [2][3] - Technical analysis shows that gold has established a temporary bottom around $3900, with the key resistance at $4050 determining the short-term trend direction [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The focus is on the critical support and resistance levels, with $4050 as the main resistance that needs to be breached for a confirmed short-term bullish trend [3] - If gold prices can stabilize above $4050, subsequent targets would be $4100 and $4150, indicating further potential for upward movement [3] - Conversely, if prices fall below $3980, it would signal a weakening of the rebound momentum, possibly leading to a retest of the $3900 support level [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The gold market is in a sensitive phase influenced by both policy and sentiment, with a weak rebound pattern prevailing due to the interplay of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing trade relations [4] - The overall market remains in a weak rebound structure, lacking clear upward momentum [4] Group 4: Trading Strategies - The trading strategy emphasizes the importance of positioning within the current oscillating market, focusing on potential short-term rebounds [5][7] - Key trading levels include a focus on the $4025-$4028 resistance zone for short-term pullback opportunities, with a stop-loss set above $4045 [8] - Downward targets are set at the $3980-$3960 range, where a stabilization signal could prompt a shift back to long positions [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper prices were high last week, with LME copper slightly falling after hitting resistance but still above the $10,000 mark, and SHFE copper centered around 85,000 yuan. The market sentiment has been high recently, and copper prices seem to deviate from the fundamentals. Volatility is expected to increase in the near term, with a bullish trend overall, but there may be profit - taking situations [3]. - The new round of China - US economic and trade consultations from October 25th to 26th is conducive to alleviating concerns and bringing benefits to both sides' development and the world economy, leading to a positive market reaction at the beginning of this week [3]. - There are many important meetings this week. The APEC leaders' meeting and the China - US presidential meeting are on the schedule, and the Fed will hold a meeting. Attention should be paid to the risk of market corrections when some events are finalized or fall short of expectations [3]. - The current rise in copper prices is mainly driven by capital, and the short - term fundamentals are ineffective. As copper prices continue to rise, downstream processing enterprises have started to shut down. Although there is still some short - term upward space for copper prices, it is limited, and it is difficult for this upward trend to last until the end of the year. In the long run, consumption factors are essential for copper price increases, and copper mine shortages, AI, green energy, and power grid transformation are positive factors for copper prices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Monthly Balance Sheet - The total supply and consumption of copper show different trends in different months from 2024/10 to 2026/3. The total supply ranges from 128 million tons to 145 million tons, and the total consumption ranges from 106 million tons to 149 million tons. The surplus or deficit situation also varies, with the surplus amount ranging from - 21.3 million tons to 24.0 million tons [4]. - The year - on - year changes in total supply, consumption, cumulative production, and cumulative consumption also fluctuate. For example, the year - on - year change in total supply ranges from - 7.25% to 22.48%, and the year - on - year change in consumption ranges from - 21.30% to 24.33% [4]. Weekly Fundamental Situation - **Project News**: On October 18th, the Alatan Daba Molybdenum - Copper Mine project officially started, with a designed production scale of 300,000 tons/year, using the "project - for - resources" EPC + O model [7]. - **Production Data**: BHP's copper production in the first fiscal quarter was 49,360 tons, a 4% increase, with an average realized price of $4.59 per pound, an 8% year - on - year increase. It maintains its annual copper production forecast at 1.8 - 2 million tons [7]. - **Policy and Call**: Indonesia may allow the copper concentrate exports of Amman Mineral. Chen Jinghe called for enhancing the global supply guarantee capacity of strategic key minerals [7]. Copper Concentrate/Crude Copper Processing Fees - Recently, the spot TC of copper concentrate has declined, and the overall sentiment is cautious, with light spot trading. The clean copper concentrate spot TC fluctuates around - 40. The domestic trade concentrate market is stable, and the focus is on long - term contract negotiations, which progress slowly due to large differences in psychological expectations [12]. - It is expected that the pricing coefficient will remain high and stable in the short term, with a possibility of a slight increase [12]. Copper Concentrate Port Data - Last week, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons from the previous week. Most ports saw inventory declines, especially Qingdao Port and Fangchenggang Port [16]. Smelting Profit - Last week, the TC price slightly declined, but the sulfuric acid price increased, offsetting part of the smelting losses. The profitability of long - term contracts and the loss level of spot contracts both improved. The long - term contract profit was 245 yuan/ton, and the spot contract loss was 1,700 yuan/ton [19]. SHFE Copper Spread Structure - Last week, as copper prices were high, downstream purchasing demand was weak. The spot premium initially fluctuated around par, then turned to a discount as delivery warehouse receipts flowed out and copper prices rose. The discount widened at the end of the week. The overall inventory first increased and then decreased. There is still upward space for copper prices this year, but caution should be exercised in taking profits at high prices [22]. LME Copper Structure Curve - As of October 24th, LME copper inventory was around 13.63 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warehouse receipts slightly increased to about 7.59%. The cash month was at a discount of about $25.97 per ton. Some Chinese export supplies are expected to flow into LME Asian warehouses, with an estimated change of more than 20,000 tons [32]. LME Copper Position and Warehouse Receipt Concentration - The Futures Banding Report shows that the short - term light long positions of copper prices have decreased, and the long - term light positions have decreased by one position. At the same time, the short - term short positions have increased by two positions, the medium - term light short positions have decreased, and the long - term medium - sized short positions have increased by one position. The market sentiment of short - selling at high prices has increased [34]. - The Cash Report and Warrant Banding Report show that the market concentration has increased [35]. SHFE - LME Copper Ratio - Recently, copper prices have been rising, but the SHFE - LME copper ratio has remained low at around 7.98, and the import window loss is still 800 yuan/ton. The ratio has fluctuated greatly recently, and caution should be exercised in ratio operations [37]. Bonded Warehouse Inventory - On October 27th, the total copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 116,800 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons from the 20th and 2,000 tons from the 23rd. The bonded area inventory continues to accumulate, but the increase rate has slowed down [41][42]. Scrap Copper Market - **Scrap Red Copper**: The copper price has been rising, but the overall market trading volume is limited. Upstream traders' inventories are low, and the available spot is scarce. Downstream manufacturers' inventories of finished products and raw materials are high, and the scrap copper purchase volume is small. The high price of scrap copper restricts downstream consumption [45]. - **Scrap Yellow Copper**: The scrap yellow copper price has slightly increased with the rising copper price. Upstream traders are more active in trading, but due to the tight supply and high price of raw materials, it is difficult to replenish inventory, and the future trading activity may decline. Downstream brass factories' orders have increased slightly, but they are still lower than the same period last year, and most factories are cautious in purchasing [45]. Downstream Enterprises and End - Users - **Refined Copper Rod**: Most refined copper rod enterprises face sales pressure, with few new orders and slow提货. Some enterprises may reduce production or conduct maintenance to adjust inventory [47]. - **Recycled Copper Rod**: Most recycled copper rod enterprises maintain stable production, but the high copper price increases the raw material cost, and the weak terminal demand affects the actual output [47]. - **Copper Tube**: The output of copper tube enterprises has slightly increased due to the delivery of previous orders at the end of the month. However, the overall start - up rate is still low, and the orders are difficult to increase due to the off - season and high copper prices. The demand in the refrigeration sector is lower than expected, and the production plan of air - conditioning enterprises in the fourth quarter has decreased significantly compared with last year [47]. - **Copper Foil**: The supply of the copper foil market is stable. The supply of electronic circuit copper foil is slightly tight, supported by high copper prices. The demand in the downstream market is stable, and the sales volume has increased. The supply of high - end copper foil is still structurally tight. The supply of lithium - ion copper foil is loose, and the competition is intense. The demand growth in the new energy market has not met expectations, and battery manufacturers' purchasing strategies are cautious [47]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: The production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip enterprises is basically the same as last week, and the start - up rate of some enterprises has decreased. The industry's start - up rhythm is slow due to weak terminal consumption, high production costs, and unclear market expectations. The supply of red copper plate and strip has little change, while the supply of yellow copper plate and strip is difficult to increase [47]. Inventory Changes - Global refined copper inventories have changed little recently, but high copper prices have suppressed some consumption. With some Chinese export supplies flowing into LME, the global visible inventory is expected to increase [50]. - **Shanghai Region**: At the beginning of this week, the Shanghai inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the 20th and an increase of 500 tons from the 23rd. The domestic supplies in the Shanghai market are still arriving, but the import of refined copper is relatively small, and the inventory increase is limited [53]. - **Guangdong Region**: At the beginning of this week, the Guangdong inventory was 21,900 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from the 20th and 200 tons from the 23rd. The arrival of smelter supplies in the Guangdong market is small, and high copper prices have restricted downstream consumption, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory [59]. - **Jiangsu (Wuxi) Region**: At the beginning of this week, the Jiangsu inventory was 37,100 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the 20th and 1,300 tons from the 23rd [66]. CFTC Position (Lagging) - As of September 23rd, the non - commercial long and short positions accounted for 32% and 18.7% respectively, with the long positions increasing by 0.6 and the short positions increasing by 1%. The market initiative has increased [72]. - The non - commercial net long position was 30,230 contracts, and the COT index was 0.614, indicating that the strength of copper prices has increased [72].

周四(10月30日)亚洲时段，现货白银试图突破48.00美元，并吸引了一些空头，欧市盘中，现货白银价格 震荡上涨，现报47.90美元/盎司，最高触及47.95美元/盎司，最低下探47.24美元/盎司。银价正逼近48.30 美元/盎司水平。今晚关注美联储理事鲍曼发表预先录制的讲话。 【要闻聚焦】 作为美联储下任主席的潜在人选之一，贝莱德首席投资官里德周三表示，他认为美联储降息符合"明显 放缓"的劳动力市场现状，而美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上的表现"比预期更为鹰派"。里德表 示，"我们认为，12月会议跳过降息的可能性增大，这将使进一步的宽松举措推迟到新的一年，甚至可 能推迟到新主席上任。" 另外"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos评美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，他说："鲍威尔的新闻发布会表明， FOMC整体上并不认同市场此前对12月降息的高度定价。"鲍威尔表示："对于12月如何行动，我们的看 法存在很大分歧。"他强调，12月的降息"不应被视为已成定局。事实上，远非如此。" 17:00德国第三季度未季调GDP年率初值 18:00欧元区第三季度GDP年率初值 这已经超出了他们通常所说的免责声明，即"政策并非按照 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - asset is becoming more prominent, but it is adjusting after a rapid rise. Copper prices are likely to be supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages. The downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse. Market styles of stocks may become more balanced, and bonds are expected to maintain a good operation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Chief Comments - The European Central Bank keeps its three major interest rates unchanged. The US cancels a 10% so - called fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods, and suspends a 24% tariff for another year, among other trade - related concessions. Most domestic futures closed down at night [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver rebounded last night after a continuous decline. Although the Fed cut interest rates and ended QT, the driving factors weakened, leading to an adjustment after a rapid rise. Long - term, gold's status as a safe - asset is strengthening [2]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. Supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may cause a supply - demand gap, supporting prices in the long - run [3]. - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.24% at night. OPEC's supply increased in September, and the downward trend remains [3]. c. Daily Main News - **International News**: The eurozone's Q3 GDP had better - than - expected growth, but member states' performance diverged [6]. - **Domestic News**: The results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, covering issues such as trade, investment, and TikTok [7]. - **Industry News**: 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, expected to drive over 7 trillion yuan in project investment [8]. d. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined. The US dollar index rose, ICE Brent crude oil fell slightly, and London gold and silver prices increased [10]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Although Sino - US leaders agreed to strengthen economic cooperation, the stock index did not rise significantly. The market style may become more balanced [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's support for a loose monetary policy and the Fed's interest - rate decision affected the bond market [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse as OPEC supply increased [14]. - **Methanol**: Market fluctuations intensified due to uncertainties, with inventory rising and potential large - scale imports [15]. - **Rubber**: Supply may increase, and demand support is limited. Weather may affect production, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Polyolefins**: They followed the crude oil trend. Demand was stable, and the market is likely to start oscillating after a short - term rebound [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the analysis in the key varieties section, with a long - term upward trend and short - term adjustment [19]. - **Copper**: Similar to the key varieties section, with long - term price support [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The supply may increase, and the price may fluctuate in a range [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation, affected by steel demand and inventory [22]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well. The US soybean price is affected by trade negotiations, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [23]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production is expected to increase, and the supply - side pressure suppresses the short - term market [24]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [25]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to maintain a slightly strong oscillation, supported by the purchase price [26]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market sentiment is affected by Sino - US trade policies. The price may have a chance to rise during the peak season [27].

美联储内部分歧加大，但可能延续降息路径 ——美联储 10 月会议解读 研究员：万亮 邮箱：xnqh_wl@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019298 报告时间：2025.10.31 1 一、10 月美联储会议主要看点 北京时间 10 月 30 日凌晨，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）以 10 票赞成、 2 票反对的结果将利率下调至 3.75%-4%的区间。这是年内的第二次降息，贴现 利率也同步下调至 4.00%（此前为 4.25%）。除了调整利率，美联储还宣布将 于 12 月 1 日结束量化紧缩。 美联储 FOMC 声明显示，美联储理事米兰再次投了反对票，他希望美联储 更快地降息 50 个基点。堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长施密德与米兰一样持反对 意见，但他更希望美联储维持利率不变。声明指出，宣布自 2025 年 12 月 1 日起结束资产负债表缩减，到期美国国债将全部再投资，抵押贷款支持证券 （MBS）本金偿还将全部用于再投资于短期国债。今年以来通胀有所上升，仍 处于高位"。现有数据显示经济正以"温和速度扩张"，但前景不确定性依然 较高。就业方面的下行风险 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The October FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25bp and will stop quantitative tightening on December 1st, in line with market expectations. There are differences within the Fed on the policy rate path, and the expected path of interest rate cuts has changed. Powell's speech was somewhat hawkish, emphasizing a "data-dependent" approach and "risk neutrality" [7]. - Domestic macro: On October 28th, the "Proposal" and "Explanation" related to the 15th Five - Year Plan were released, enhancing the strategic status of science and technology and emerging industries. The Sino - US summit on October 30th was positive, with many consensuses on economic and trade consultations [7]. - Asset view: Short - term balanced allocation is recommended. With the implementation of interest rate cuts, progress in Sino - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, it is expected to benefit equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals. Black commodities also have a chance to rebound, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed cut interest rates in October and will stop quantitative tightening. There are internal differences on the policy rate path, and the expected path of interest rate cuts has changed. Powell's speech was hawkish, emphasizing data dependence and risk neutrality [7]. - Domestic: The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan - related documents enhanced the status of science and technology and emerging industries. The Sino - US summit was positive, with many economic and trade consensuses [7]. - Asset: Short - term balanced allocation. Equity sectors, non - ferrous metals, and black commodities are expected to benefit, while precious metals may fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Technology events catalyze the active growth style, with small and micro - cap funds being crowded. Short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [8]. - Stock Index Options: The overall market turnover has slightly declined, and the liquidity of the options market may be lower than expected. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and economic and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals. Concerns include the US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.4 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. Concerns include the rate of freight decline in September. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: There are continuous policy disturbances and inventory pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Iron Ore: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and emotional disturbances are more obvious. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Coke: The start - up rate continues to decline, and price increases are about to be implemented. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Coking Coal: There are continuous supply disturbances, and coal prices are relatively strong. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Other: For other products in this sector, such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with corresponding concerns for each product [8]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with different concerns for each metal, such as supply disturbances, policy changes, and demand expectations [8]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - For most products in this sector, such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile or volatile downward, with concerns including supply and demand, policy, and price fluctuations of related raw materials [10]. 3.8 Agriculture - For various agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock products, the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with concerns including weather, supply and demand, and policy [10].

Core Insights - Following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, U.S. mortgage rates have unexpectedly risen, indicating that short-term fluctuations have limited impact, while the economic outlook and Fed policy will be crucial for determining home buying costs in early 2026 [1][2] Mortgage Market - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased by 0.14 percentage points to 6.27% after the FOMC meeting, and further rose to 6.33% the following day, suggesting that if this trend continues, it will be reflected in upcoming national mortgage rate data [1] - Despite the rise in mortgage rates, current levels are still more favorable for potential buyers compared to earlier this year, with a $400,000 loan saving borrowers approximately $100 per month compared to rates from late July [1] Builder Sentiment - Major homebuilder PulteGroup noted that despite typical demand increases with lower rates, buyer responses have been "noticeably more subdued" due to economic uncertainty and concerns over job stability, which are dampening home buying intentions [1] Bond Market Reaction - The bond market reacted to the Fed's decision to lower the benchmark rate and end quantitative tightening, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising, which in turn pushed mortgage rates higher [2] - Fed Chair Powell's comments during the press conference indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, leading to a decrease in market expectations for additional rate cuts [2] Future Outlook - The direction of 30-year fixed mortgage rates will be influenced by economic data and Fed statements in the coming months, with a focus on the sustainability of the entire rate-cutting cycle rather than just the December meeting [2]