现货黄金周三早盘维持窄幅震荡，目前交投于3382美元/盎司附近。周二金价延续强势，一度触及近两 周高点3390.32美元/盎司，最终收报3380.65美元，实现连续第四个交易日上涨。这一轮上行行情背后， 美联储降息预期、特朗普政府政策变动及全球经济不确定性成为核心驱动力。 关税政策冲击：经济放缓与通胀压力并存 特朗普政府的关税政策对美国经济及黄金市场产生了复杂影响。6月美国贸易逆差收窄16%至602亿美 元，创两年新低，其中对华逆差骤降至95亿美元，为21年来最小值。这一变化主要源于对进口商品加征 关税导致的消费品和工业用品进口下滑。同时，资本财出口创历史新高，支撑第二季度GDP增长3%， 扭转了第一季度0.5%的萎缩局面。 然而，关税的副作用逐渐显现。7月美国服务业PMI下滑至50.1，低于市场预期的51.5，显示服务业活动 接近停滞。企业反馈称，高关税推高了投入成本，ISM支付价格指数升至69.9，创2022年10月以来新 高，就业指数则进一步下滑至46.4。Nationwide Financial Markets经济学家Oren Klachkin警告，高关税的 负面影响将盖过政策不确定性降低的积极效应。 ...

对黄金市场而言，关税引发的通胀压力和经济不确定性进一步增强了其避险吸引力。投资者担忧高关税可能推高物价、削弱经济增长动能，促使资金 流入黄金市场。特朗普政府与加拿大、德国等国的贸易摩擦加剧，全球经济不确定性进一步推高了黄金需求。 降息预期高涨：金价的避险光芒闪耀 金价的强劲表现与市场对美联储货币政策的预期密切相关。6月美国就业数据意外疲软，显示就业增长低于预期，且前两个月数据大幅下修，引发市场 对经济放缓的担忧。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，9月降息的可能性已飙升至91%，市场预计到2026年10月累计降息130个基点。高盛预测， 美联储可能从9月起连续三次降息，每次25个基点，若就业数据进一步恶化，甚至可能降息50个基点。 美元指数周二虽一度反弹至99.07，但最终回落至98.76，显示出反弹乏力。美元的疲软为金价提供了坚实支撑，吸引逢低买盘，推动金价顶住回调压 力。道明证券大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali表示，疲软的就业数据和特朗普政府更换劳工统计局局长的决定，强化了市场对美元价值储藏功能减弱的看 法。黄金作为传统避险资产的地位因此得到巩固，投资者需求持续升温。 关税政策冲击：经济与金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in sentiment towards gold, with institutions like Citigroup reversing their bearish outlook and raising gold price forecasts due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks [2][4]. Group 1: Citigroup's Revised Gold Outlook - Citigroup has adjusted its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 per ounce to $3,500 per ounce, with the trading range revised from $3,100-$3,500 to $3,300-$3,600 [2]. - The bank attributes this change to factors such as weak U.S. labor data, concerns over the credibility of the Federal Reserve, and escalating geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. - Since mid-2022, total gold demand has increased by over 33%, contributing to a near doubling of gold prices in the second quarter of this year [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Demand - Strong investment demand, continuous purchases by central banks, and resilient jewelry demand are key drivers of the rising gold prices [6]. - In the second quarter, global gold demand reached 1,249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from gold ETFs and bar and coin investments [16]. - Central banks added 166 tons of gold in the second quarter, maintaining high levels of gold purchases despite a slowdown in the pace of buying [16]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data, which showed a significant drop in job growth, gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures breaking the $3,400 mark [10]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction is not solely based on future predictions but also on a retrospective reassessment of economic weakness over the past two months [11]. - The Federal Reserve's potential for multiple rate cuts this year is being closely monitored, with indications that if labor market weakness persists without inflationary pressures, more than two rate cuts may be necessary [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a stronger US dollar and tightening monetary policy, which has shifted investor sentiment away from gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has risen from around 102 points at the end of last year to nearly 105 by July, driven by the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes and asset reduction [3]. - The expectation of a slowdown in the US economy, indicated by anticipated lower job growth in July, has paradoxically led to a stronger dollar, further pressuring gold prices [3][5]. - Average hourly wages in July are expected to rise, suggesting persistent wage inflation, which supports the dollar's strength and negatively impacts gold [5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are hovering around $3,280, with key moving averages showing signs of losing bullish momentum, indicating a bearish outlook [6]. - Support levels for gold are identified at $3,281, $3,268, and $3,246, while resistance levels are at $3,311, $3,328, and $3,345, suggesting a challenging environment for gold to recover [7]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - The US economy shows signs of slowing down, with a second-quarter GDP growth rate of only 2.1%, below the expected 2.4%, indicating potential easing of inflation pressures [8]. - Economic conditions in Europe and China are also affecting market dynamics, with the European Central Bank adjusting interest rates and China undergoing a manufacturing transformation [8]. - The ongoing monetary policy adjustments globally are leading to a stronger dollar, which is impacting gold's appeal as an investment [8][10].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3597.94 points, up 0.12%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 11217.58 points, up 0.44% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index reached a new high for the year, while sectors such as defense and pharmaceuticals saw gains, contrasting with declines in coal and steel sectors [1] - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the 10-year bond yield at 1.7150%, down 1.75 basis points, and the 30-year bond yield at 1.9225%, down 2.50 basis points [1] Monetary Policy and Debt Market - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to enhance cash management and bond issuance [2] - The central bank's stance on maintaining a loose monetary policy is expected to continue, positioning the bond market favorably [2] - Investors are advised to seize short-term opportunities in long-duration assets like the 10-year Treasury ETF [2] Gold Market Insights - Gold prices fluctuated around $3330, facing temporary pressure from recent trade agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU, but the long-term outlook remains positive [3] - Global gold ETF holdings increased by 407 tons this year, a rise of approximately 12.6%, indicating a growing demand for gold as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - The appeal of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset has been reaffirmed amid rising macroeconomic uncertainties [5] Biopharmaceutical Sector Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, with the Innovation Drug ETF rising by 3.2% and the Biopharmaceutical ETF increasing by over 2% [5] - The sector is buoyed by significant licensing agreements, such as the one between Hengrui Medicine and GSK, which could accelerate the commercialization of innovative drug projects [8] - AI applications in drug development are expected to enhance valuation and growth potential within the sector, with a focus on the positive impact of AI on research and development efficiency [6][9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to multiple significant risk events, including international trade developments and key economic data releases, leading to a cautious trading environment [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent progress in US-EU trade negotiations has reduced safe-haven demand for gold, resulting in a three-day decline and a new weekly low [1]. - The establishment of a 15% unified tariff agreement between the US and EU has increased market risk appetite, further diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]. - Upcoming events such as the small non-farm payrolls, Federal Reserve meeting, and non-farm payroll data are expected to influence gold prices, with a likely range-bound trading scenario in the short term [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The initial trading week may see a rebound in gold prices, with key resistance levels identified between $3350 and $3370, while support is noted between $3300 and $3290 [2]. - Short-term trading is recommended within the $3350 to $3320 range, with a cautious approach advised due to potential volatility from major economic events [2]. - A conservative strategy suggests waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision before making significant trading adjustments, while aggressive traders may consider short-term positions [2]. Group 3: Trading Recommendations - The suggested trading range for gold is between $3320 and $3350, with a stop loss of $5 and a take profit target of $20 to $22 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced a significant drop, falling by 1.12% to $3,335.6 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased below 1,000 yuan per gram, leading to a surge in consumer interest and purchases [1][5] Group 1: Market Reaction - Consumers are rushing to buy gold, with reports of crowded stores and high demand for gold bars and jewelry as prices drop significantly [5] - Conversely, those who recently purchased gold at higher prices are expressing regret, with some feeling they have made poor investment decisions [4][5] - The gold recovery market is also bustling, with many individuals looking to sell their gold jewelry due to recent price declines [5] Group 2: Causes of Price Drop - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are a primary factor, as higher interest rates make holding gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets [5] - Improved economic conditions in the U.S. have reduced the perceived need for gold as a safe haven, leading to decreased demand [5] - Chinese consumers, previously significant buyers of gold, are now more cautious and less likely to purchase gold, contributing to the price decline [5] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The article warns that the price of gold jewelry does not equate to the actual gold price, as it includes additional costs such as labor and branding [5] - Consumers are advised to be cautious of "one-price" gold items, which often carry a significant markup over the actual gold value [5] - The risks associated with gold investment products, such as ETFs and paper gold, are highlighted, indicating they can be more volatile than expected [5] Group 4: Recommendations for Consumers - For those with a genuine need for gold, such as wedding purchases, now may be a good time to buy, but they should avoid high markup items [5] - Individuals with old or broken gold jewelry are encouraged to sell now, as recovery prices are still favorable compared to last year [5] - The article advises against trying to "time the market" for gold purchases, suggesting that ordinary consumers are unlikely to outperform market trends [6]

Core Insights - The domestic gold consumption market in China is experiencing significant structural changes due to rising international gold prices, with total gold consumption in the first half of 2025 reaching 505.205 tons, a decrease of 3.54% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Jewelry Consumption - Gold jewelry consumption has seen a dramatic decline, with a total of 199.826 tons in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year drop of 26%, which is much greater than market expectations [3] - Consumers are fundamentally changing their purchasing behavior, with many postponing or canceling their plans to buy gold jewelry due to high prices, leading to a noticeable decrease in foot traffic in jewelry stores [3] - Lightweight jewelry products with strong design and high added value are becoming popular, as consumers prefer exquisite but lighter products to reduce purchasing costs [3] - Major brand stores like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang have frequently adjusted their gold prices, with prices nearing or exceeding 1020 yuan per gram, causing daily fluctuations of 7-10 yuan per gram, which exacerbates consumer hesitation [3] Group 2: Investment Demand - In contrast, gold bar and coin consumption has surged, reaching 264.242 tons in the first half of the year, a significant increase of 23.69% year-on-year, indicating strong investor recognition of gold's value preservation function [4] - Increased risk aversion due to geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties has driven a surge in investment demand for gold, with investors viewing it as a crucial tool for hedging risks [4] - The domestic gold ETF holdings have significantly increased, with an addition of 84 tons in the first half of the year, a 173% rise compared to 30 tons in the same period of 2024, reflecting sustained enthusiasm from institutional and individual investors [4] - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 18.97 tons in the first half of the year, bringing total reserves to 2298.55 tons, indicating a positive outlook on long-term gold price increases [4] - Despite strong demand for gold bars in stores, profit margins remain relatively low, suggesting that investors are focusing more on gold's value preservation rather than its decorative value [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trends in China's gold production and consumption for the first half of 2025, indicating a decline in both production and consumption, while also noting a significant increase in gold ETF holdings and trading volumes due to high gold prices and geopolitical tensions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Production - In the first half of 2025, China's gold production was 179.083 tons, a decrease of 0.31% year-on-year [1][3]. - Domestic gold mining contributed 139.413 tons, while by-products from non-ferrous metals accounted for 39.670 tons [3]. - The total gold production, including imported raw materials, reached 252.761 tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.44% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Gold Consumption - Gold consumption in China for the first half of 2025 was 505.205 tons, down 3.54% year-on-year [1][3]. - The consumption of gold jewelry fell significantly by 26.00% to 199.826 tons, while demand for gold bars and coins rose by 23.69% to 264.242 tons [3][4]. - Industrial and other uses of gold saw a modest increase of 2.59%, totaling 41.137 tons [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - High gold prices have suppressed jewelry consumption, but high-value, well-designed jewelry remains popular, benefiting retailers [4]. - The demand for gold bars continues to be strong, although profit margins are lower [4]. - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty have heightened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a substantial increase in investment demand for gold bars and coins [4]. Group 4: Trading Activity - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 16,786.870 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.70% [4]. - The trading value reached 12.1180 trillion yuan, up 56.46% compared to the previous year [4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a trading volume of 75,477.958 tons, marking an 88.39% increase year-on-year, with a trading value of 44.4429 trillion yuan, up 149.17% [5]. Group 5: ETF Holdings - Domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 84.771 tons in the first half of 2025, a remarkable growth of 173.73% compared to the same period in 2024 [5]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total gold ETF holdings in China reached 199.505 tons [5]. Group 6: Gold Prices - By the end of June 2025, the London spot gold price was $3,287.45 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24.31% [5]. - The average gold price for the first half of 2025 was $3,066.59 per ounce, up 39.21% year-on-year [5]. - In China, the closing price for Au9999 gold was 764.43 yuan per gram, a 24.50% increase since the beginning of the year [5].

Report Overview - The report is a precious metals industry daily report dated July 23, 2025, covering the precious metals market including gold and silver [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to the uncertainty of US - EU tariffs, concerns about US inflation and growth, and market expectations of Fed rate cuts. The "tariff countdown" may be the main trading theme for gold. It is recommended to buy gold at low prices. Silver has shown a strong trend recently with the gold - silver ratio repaired, but short - term callback risks should be noted [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Gold**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 792.9 yuan/gram, up 8.06; the main contract position was 222,387 lots, up 5,665; the net position of the top 20 in the main contract was 161,804 lots, up 9,350; the warehouse receipt quantity was 28,857 kilograms, unchanged [2] - **Silver**: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9,492 yuan/kilogram, up 99; the main contract position was 478,279 lots, up 2,269; the net position of the top 20 in the main contract was 134,188 lots, down 2,904; the warehouse receipt quantity was 1,188,482 kilograms, down 10,564 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Gold**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 787.97 yuan/gram, with a basis of - 4.93 yuan/gram against the Shanghai Gold main contract, up 6.47; the gold ETF position was 954.8 tons, up 7.74 [2] - **Silver**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price was 9,419 yuan/kilogram, with a basis of - 73 yuan/kilogram against the Shanghai Silver main contract, up 6; the silver ETF position was 15,158.37 tons, up 152.58 [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **Gold**: The CFTC non - commercial net position was 213,115 contracts (weekly), up 10,147; the total quarterly supply was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total quarterly demand was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 [2] - **Silver**: The CTFC non - commercial net position was 59,448 contracts (weekly), up 927; the total annual supply was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4; the total annual global demand was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - **Gold**: The 20 - day historical volatility was 10.42%, down 0.83; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.2%, up 2.37; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.31%, up 2.36 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said Fed Chairman Powell would leave office, and he thought interest rates were too high and should be cut by at least 3 percentage points. He has criticized Powell multiple times this year [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said tariff revenues were "huge", possibly accounting for 1% of US GDP, and could reach $2.8 trillion in the next decade. He supported Powell to complete his term and called for an internal review of his non - monetary policy functions [2] - Japan's central bank may keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% next week, as Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's election defeat has little impact on the central bank's gradual rate - hike policy [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July was 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 40.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 57%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 2.7% [2]