市场主流观点汇总 2025/11/25 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/11/21 | | 2025/11/17 | 至 2025/11/21 | | 铁矿石 | | 785.50 | 铁矿石 | | 1.68% | | 玉米 | | 2195.00 | 玉米 | | 0.46% | | 螺纹钢 | | 3057.00 | 螺纹钢 | | 0.13% | ...

Pepperstone研究主管Chris Weston表示，"市场高度关注每位美联储票委的立场及其对12月降息的看法。 鉴于市场（和美联储）尚未拿到通常会影响其政策决定的数据，这是合理的。也许最大的未知数是鲍威 尔本人的观点，但总的来说，人们可以假设他会投票支持12月降息。"到目前为止，降息押注的突然转 变对美元的影响有限。美联储官员对下一步可能采取的行动仍存在分歧，因为该行仍没拿到全套数据。 Weston说："在劳动力市场脆弱、美国短期和长期通胀预期都在下降的情况下，12月维持利率不变将是 一种脱节，市场可能反应不佳。" 4. 瑞穗证券："哈塞特"效应或令美元承压 瑞穗证券分析师瓦拉坦说，由于美联储降息的可能性大幅上升，美元保持稳定，但随着哈塞特被提名为 下一任美联储主席的可能性大幅上升，美元汇率出现下跌。市场似乎并未质疑美联储的独立性，美联储 威廉姆斯、沃勒和戴利都支持12月降息。不过，瓦拉坦指出，投资者正在消化哈塞特可能导致美联储政 治化的因素。他说，"哈塞特效应"可能会给美元蒙上阴影，并补充说，只要美联储主席任命的这种政治 上顺从的看法没有消除，美元的贬值风险仍然很高。 国外 1. 瑞银资管：中国股票 ...

科兴与巴西开启十年疫苗合作，创中国疫苗最大金额国际订单 36氪获悉，当地时间2025年11月24日，科兴与巴西卫生部签署了两项PDP（产品开发伙伴关系）项目， 成为首个中标该项目的中国疫苗企业。科兴将与巴西当地伙伴Tecpar研究所和Eurofarma公司合作建设疫 苗产业平台，帮助巴西提升本土疫苗生产能力，在未来10年向巴西提供总计约6000万剂水痘疫苗和狂犬 疫苗，价值超7亿美元。这是中国疫苗企业迄今获得的最长期、合同金额最大的一笔国际订单。 星动纪元与联合国工业发展组织达成战略合作 大公司： 36氪获悉，近日，在联合国工业发展组织第21届工业发展大会期间，星动纪元与联合国工业发展组织 (UNIDO)正式签署战略合作协议，成为本次大会唯一达成战略合作的中国具身智能企业。战略合作约 定，双方围绕具身智能人形机器人和技术创新领域的潜在合作进行探讨。 报道称美国派拉蒙公司将发行电影《尖峰时刻4》，成龙据称将回归出演 美国福克斯新闻网、《野兽日报》等媒体25日援引美国娱乐媒体Deadline网站消息报道称，消息人士确 认美国派拉蒙公司将代表华纳兄弟公司发行电影《尖峰时刻4》，国际影星成龙及克里斯·塔克据称将回 归 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about an AI valuation bubble are negatively impacting SoftBank Group's stock performance, with traders increasingly viewing SoftBank as a "shadow stock" of the unlisted company OpenAI [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Concerns - SoftBank's stock has dropped approximately 40% since late October, resulting in a market value loss of over 16 trillion yen (approximately 726.06 billion RMB) [3]. - The company is facing a global AI asset sell-off, exacerbated by fears of increased competition for OpenAI following Alphabet's launch of Gemini 3.0 [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Investments - Despite the stock decline, SoftBank recorded a surprising net profit of 2.5 trillion yen (approximately 113.45 billion RMB) in Q2 of FY2024, aided by a 14.6 billion USD paper gain from its exposure to OpenAI [5]. - SoftBank has a payment obligation of up to 22.5 billion USD due in December, part of a total commitment of 32 billion USD to OpenAI [6]. Group 3: Strategic Moves and Industry Positioning - SoftBank aims to position itself as a core player in the AI ecosystem, believing that OpenAI will lead this space, and has sold shares in Nvidia and Oracle to fund investments in AI chip design companies [6]. - The company holds nearly 90% of Arm, which supports a wide range of modern technology products, and has acquired Ampere Computing, a key customer of Arm [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Analysts express skepticism about SoftBank's aggressive entry into chip manufacturing, highlighting the rising penetration of RISC-V architecture in AI chip design, which poses a competitive threat to Arm [7]. - Meta's plan to use Google's Gemini AI chips raises concerns for Nvidia's business outlook, impacting suppliers like Ibiden Co., while Toppan Holdings Inc. saw an 11% stock increase due to expected benefits from collaboration with Google [7]. - The era of indiscriminate buying of AI concept stocks is ending, with future market selection criteria expected to become more stringent [7].

以下文章来源于晚点LatePost ，作者晚点团队 晚点LatePost . 晚一点，好一点 泡沫之后。 作者/曾梦龙 编辑/ 黄俊杰 来源/晚点LatePost (ID：postlate) 继今年成为首个 4 万亿美元市值的公司后，英伟达在 1 0 月 2 9 日成为目前唯一一个 5 万亿公司。 2 0 2 2 年 11 月 底 Ch a tGPT 上 线 前 夕 ， 英 伟 达 还 只 有 4 0 0 0 亿 美 元 市 值 。 之 后 近 三 年，美国资本市场与 AI 密切相关的公司价值就增加了 1 0 多万亿美元，相当于整个 A 股的总市值。 光英伟达新增的市值就超过英法德股市总和。Op e nAI 估值增加 4 8 0 0 亿美元，也超过 了大多数国家的 GDP。 与此同时，今年 1 0 月的新书《1 9 2 9》则回顾了一个技术进步、金融澎湃时代也有另一 种可能。《大而不倒》的作者、美剧《亿万》编剧索尔金（An d r ew Ro ss S o r k i n）回 到大萧条前的经济泡沫，呈现了与今天有诸多相似之处的环境：技术革命连环爆发，电 网 、 家 电 、 收 音 机 、 电 视 机 、 汽 ...

Core Insights - The debate over the "AI bubble" is intensifying as global investments flood into the AI sector, raising questions about the sustainability of China's AI industry [1] - Historical lessons from the internet bubble suggest that while initial excitement may lead to a bubble, a few companies will emerge post-bubble to create significant societal value [1] Group 1: Current State of AI in China - China's AI development is primarily driven by demand, focusing on practical applications rather than speculative investments [1] - As of June this year, the user base for generative AI in China reached 515 million, providing a solid foundation for AI training and optimization [1] - AI technologies are being integrated across various sectors, including agriculture, industry, and services, facilitating the transformation of traditional industries [1] Group 2: Future Prospects and Strategic Directions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the implementation of the "AI+" initiative, aiming to integrate AI with various sectors to enhance productivity and societal welfare [2] - High-value AI applications are expected to evolve from basic to deep applications, addressing significant pain points and enabling large-scale implementations [2] - AI can optimize production processes in smart manufacturing, helping companies reduce costs and improve decision-making in complex scenarios [2] Group 3: Investment and Entrepreneurial Strategies - The true bubble arises from concept speculation rather than the technology itself, urging investors to focus on core value segments within the AI industry [2] - Entrepreneurs are advised to maintain clarity and avoid following trends blindly, emphasizing the importance of deepening scenario innovation [2] - Participants who concentrate on the essence of technology and its commercial value are likely to succeed in the ongoing technological revolution [2]

黄仁勋回应： 这不是泡沫 而是三次平台级转型叠加 英伟达上周三（11月19日）公布远超市场预期的三季度财报：营收达570.1亿美元，同比暴增62%，不仅 击败分析师预期的551.9亿美元，公司给出的下一财季指引更是高达650亿美元，同样高于市场预估的624 亿美元。如此亮眼的数据，让英伟达在当日的盘后交易一度飙涨超6%，管理层甚至罕见放出"从今年年初 到2026年12月，Blackwell和Rubin芯片有望带来5000亿美元营收"的豪言。 然而，狂欢只持续了不到24小时。次日（11月20日）开盘，英伟达股价高开5%至196美元后快速跳水， 最终收跌近3%至180.98美元，盘中跌幅一度超过7%，创下一个月来最低收盘价。英伟达的急转直下也拖 累标普500指数大跌约3%，反应市场对科技板块的风险偏好明显降温。 为何英伟达这一"史诗级"财报没能撑住市场情绪？有市场机构指出，英伟达出色的销售数据并不能完全证 明AI大潮的可持续性。市场对"AI泡沫"的争议再次被推到台前，"AI投资的回报率到底在哪里？"不少投 资者担忧，当前AI的火热，是否正在走向一种"只见铁锹不见黄金"的循环式繁荣。就像当年的加州淘金 热一样，铁锹 ...

Core Insights - Google is making significant strides in the AI chip market, aiming to capture 10% of Nvidia's annual revenue through its TPU offerings [6][12][26] - Nvidia is responding aggressively to Google's advancements, emphasizing its established position and capabilities in the AI hardware space [2][20][22] Group 1: Google's Strategy - Google has successfully launched its Gemini 3 AI model using its proprietary TPU, which has led to increased interest from major clients like Meta and financial institutions [3][4] - The company is promoting the deployment of TPUs in clients' data centers, highlighting benefits such as enhanced security and performance for sensitive applications [14][15] - Google has developed a "Google version of CUDA" to facilitate the use of TPUs, aiming to simplify the integration process for clients [14][19] Group 2: Nvidia's Response - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang is closely monitoring Google's TPU developments and is actively courting potential clients to prevent them from switching to Google [20][21] - Nvidia is employing a straightforward strategy of financial investment to secure commitments from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI to continue using its GPUs [21][22] - Despite Nvidia's strong financial performance, the company faces market volatility and pressure to meet high expectations, which has led to significant fluctuations in its stock price [27][31][32] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Both Google and Nvidia have seen their stock prices outperform the S&P 500, with Alphabet showing particularly strong gains [9][11] - The competition between Google and Nvidia is reshaping the AI industry landscape, with both companies vying for dominance in the AI chip market [8][26] - Other major players, including Amazon and Microsoft, are also developing their own AI chips, indicating a broader trend in the industry towards self-sufficiency in AI hardware [26]

近期，投资者对AI泡沫的担心持续上升。就此，在11月26日举办的中国银河证券2026年度投资策略报 告会上，中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊表示，AI泡沫确实存在，但会否演变成危机， 目前来看还为时尚早。章俊提到，IMF将当下与互联网泡沫进行了对比，从市盈率和投资热度等指标来 看，目前整体依然相对可控。美联储加息是刺破互联网泡沫的重要原因，但当下是美联储和全球降息周 期，政策风险可控。不过与此同时，他强调，目前全球经济的韧性远低于当年，因此指标的可比性也还 是存在不确定性。 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba is focusing on increasing capital expenditure to enhance future earnings potential, particularly in its AI cloud business, which has shown significant growth despite short-term market concerns [1][6] - The latest quarterly report highlights a 34% year-on-year revenue growth for Alibaba Cloud, driven by strong AI demand and public cloud revenue [1][3] - The company’s capital expenditure surged by 80% year-on-year to 31.5 billion RMB, with a total of approximately 120 billion RMB invested in AI and cloud infrastructure over the past four quarters [1][7] Financial Performance - Alibaba Cloud's revenue reached 39.824 billion RMB, marking a record growth rate [1][3] - Adjusted net profit fell by 72% year-on-year to 10.35 billion RMB, and free cash flow turned into a net outflow of 21.84 billion RMB [1][3] - The total revenue growth for Alibaba Cloud and its non-consolidated businesses accelerated to 34% and 29% respectively for the quarter ending September 30, 2025 [3] AI Business Strategy - The company is prioritizing three key areas for AI development: enhancing core model training capabilities, improving the efficiency of the Bai Lian platform for inference services, and balancing internal AI needs with external customer demands [4][5] - There is a strong demand for AI products among enterprise clients, with significant growth potential in various applications, including product development and customer interactions [3][6] - CEO Wu Yongming expressed confidence in the absence of an "AI bubble" over the next three years, citing solid demand and reasonable return potential [6][7] Supply Chain and Investment Outlook - The global AI server supply chain is experiencing shortages, with demand outpacing supply, which is expected to continue for the next two to three years [7][8] - Alibaba's CFO indicated that the previously mentioned 380 billion RMB capital expenditure plan might be conservative, and further investments could be made to meet market demand [7][8] - The company is focusing on the quality and cost-effectiveness of its AI infrastructure, with various application models contributing to revenue generation [8]