Core Insights - The article emphasizes three key terms for the tech industry in 2025: AI bubble, verifiable product value, and process-oriented ecosystem [4] - The AI bubble is seen as a necessary phase that consolidates capital, computing power, and engineering talent, ultimately leading to viable products [4] - The industry is experiencing a structural mismatch where technology outpaces product development, resulting in a lack of compelling consumer applications [5] Group 1: Industry Trends - Companies that have succeeded this year are those that address high-frequency demand scenarios, such as AI social media and music, which are conducive to scalable model applications [7] - AI has significantly restructured content production and office processes, reducing time from days to minutes, shifting focus from model strength to verifiable processes and reusable results [7] - The core pressures faced by tech companies include converting technical advantages into sustainable cash flow and advancing AI deployment within regulatory frameworks [8] Group 2: Future Outlook - The only technological battleground identified for 2026 is whether Agents can automate verifiable processes on a large scale [11] - The focus will be on general AI assistants, companies that only develop models without products, and traditional software companies that lag in adopting AI-driven processes [11][12] - The next two years will determine success based on the ability to transform processes into assets rather than the intelligence of models [14]

2025年的市场有两个比较明显的分水岭。第一个是今年四月初，关税事件落地。 如果站在2024年年底展望2025年，最大的风险事件就是关税问题，尤其是2024年10月份美国政府换届选 举之后，市场普遍预期今年可能会出现关税相关的突发性事件。因此，今年一季度市场走势相对震荡、 纠结，直到四月初关税事件落地，大盘出现了较快下跌。 当然，一季度市场也存在一些结构性行情。比如国内的deepseek、机器人等领域，在产业趋势的催化 下，科技成长板块中仍有不少可挖掘的机会。 但四月的关税事件，是影响巨大的分水岭，整个市场迎来了快速下跌。关税落地初期，大家普遍担忧出 口导向型行业，可能会面临较大问题，这种担忧其实是比较正常的。 但后续我们发现，这一轮关税冲突的进程比2018年快很多——双方在几天之内就将关税加到了较高水 平，随后很快进入谈判阶段。短期之内双边仍存在较强的依赖性，双方都有着较深的联系。因此，关税 问题后续进入谈判阶段，双边关系也有所修复和缓和。再叠加二季度英伟达GB200机柜进入加速出货阶 段，所以二季度和三季度，整个A股产业链中，光模块、服务器、光纤光缆等相关公司的股价表现非常 突出。如果大家在二三季度配置了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global IPO market is expected to fully recover by 2025, primarily supported by a fundamental shift in the global liquidity environment as major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, begin to lower interest rates after a period of aggressive rate hikes since 2022 [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has regained its position as the top global IPO fundraising market, with total IPO fundraising expected to reach HKD 2787.03 billion (approximately USD 359 billion), surpassing the Nasdaq's USD 258 billion, marking the highest level since 2021 [6] - The influx of capital from both domestic and international investors has created a dual-driven dynamic in the Hong Kong market, providing significant liquidity support for large IPO projects [2][4] - The number of IPO applications processed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has surged to 331, up from 84 at the beginning of the year, indicating a potential acceleration in IPO transactions towards the end of the year [4][19] Group 2: Notable IPOs - The largest IPO in Hong Kong this year was by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (宁德时代), raising HKD 310.06 billion (approximately USD 39.88 billion) with a cumulative increase of 89.28% since listing [12] - Other significant IPOs include Zijin Mining's spin-off, which raised HKD 249.84 billion (approximately USD 32.14 billion), and the listing of Seres, which raised HKD 131.76 billion (approximately USD 16.95 billion) [12] Group 3: Future Outlook - The IPO market is expected to become more crowded in 2026, with a significant number of companies, particularly in the technology and innovation sectors, preparing for potential listings [16][18] - Major companies like SpaceX and AI leaders such as OpenAI and Anthropic are anticipated to initiate IPO processes, which could lead to the largest IPO wave in history [18] - The Hong Kong market may face challenges due to a backlog of IPO applications, which could exacerbate competition in the global IPO landscape [19][20]

[ 我国市场空间巨大、成长性强，为扩大高水平对外开放提供了坚实基础。2025年，第八届中国国际进 口博览会意向成交额创下834.9亿美元新高，同期启动的"共享大市场·出口中国"系列推广活动，也向世 界清晰传递出中国主动开放市场、欢迎全球优质产品的积极信号。 ] 中国进出口平衡 ●高雅/文 近年来，中国外贸顶住全球需求波动的压力，展现出惊人的韧性。我国货物贸易总额已连续8年保持世 界第一，出口占世界比重稳定在14%以上，进口占世界比重从2012年的9.7%上升至2024年的10.5%。然 而，当前世界正面临单边主义与保护主义抬头、开放指数持续走低的复杂局面。在此环境下，"平衡"已 超越国际收支的技术性概念，成为连接国内国际双循环、促进全球经济稳定增长的关键支点。 实现进出口平衡，一方面的内在动力来源于贸易结构的持续提质升级。中国出口的"含金量"持续刷新， 高技术产品占比达18.2%，绿色与智能装备正成为贸易新名片。相对应的，作为全球近80个经济体的主 要出口目的地，中国也正通过将关税总水平降至7.3%、对最不发达国家实施零关税待遇，加速从"世界 工厂"向"全球大市场"转型，为动荡的国际市场提供稀缺的确定性需求。 ...

2026 中国进出口平衡 近年来，中国外贸顶住全球需求波动的压力，展现出惊人的韧性。我国货物贸易总额已连续8年保持世 界第一，出口占世界比重稳定在14%以上，进口占世界比重从2012年的9.7%上升至2024年的10.5%。然 而，当前世界正面临单边主义与保护主义抬头、开放指数持续走低的复杂局面。在此环境下，"平衡"已 超越国际收支的技术性概念，成为连接国内国际双循环、促进全球经济稳定增长的关键支点。 根据国际足球联合会（FIFA）的研究，赛事有望贡献高达470亿美元的经济产出，不过由于FIFA的严格 协议，举办地城市难以从门票和赞助中获得直接补偿，高额的办赛成本有可能会增长相关城市和国家的 财政负担。 在全球经贸格局重构的深水区，推动进出口平衡发展，不仅是中国优化贸易结构的主动选择，更是以自 身市场的开放弹性，为全球产业链韧性提供的保护。 美加墨世界杯 第23届国际足联世界杯，将于2026年6月11日至7月19日由美国、加拿大和墨西哥联合举办，有16个主办 城市，包括纽约、洛杉矶、多伦多和墨西哥城等。这将是世界杯历史上首次由三个国家共同承办，世界 杯参赛球队也将由32支球队扩展至48支。 小组赛分组抽签仪式 ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/12/30 报告说明 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/12/26 | | 2025/12/22 | 至 | 2025/12/26 | | | 白银 | 18319.00 | 白银 | | | 19.14% | | | PTA | 5280.00 | PTA | 8.15% | | | | | 铜 | 98720.00 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of domestic chip companies in China, particularly focusing on Birun Technology's upcoming IPO in Hong Kong and the challenges it faces in a competitive market dominated by Nvidia [1][2][20]. Group 1: Company Overview - Birun Technology plans to raise over HKD 4.2 billion through its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the "first GPU stock" in Hong Kong [2]. - The founder, Zhang Wen, has a diverse background, including a Harvard Law degree and experience in private equity, which he leverages to attract top talent from the industry [3][4]. - The company has raised over CNY 5 billion in funding within a year and a half, setting a record for domestic chip startups [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Birun has incurred losses exceeding CNY 6.3 billion over three and a half years, despite a significant revenue increase, with 2024 revenue reaching CNY 337 million, a fourfold increase from the previous year [9]. - R&D expenditures for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 were CNY 1.018 billion, CNY 886 million, and CNY 827 million, respectively, with an additional CNY 572 million spent in the first half of 2025 [8]. - The gross margin dropped from approximately 70% in 2024 to 32% in the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in cost control and pricing power [10][11]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Birun faces significant competition from Nvidia, especially with the potential re-entry of Nvidia's H200 chip into the Chinese market, which poses a threat to domestic players [17]. - The current market environment in Hong Kong is characterized by a high influx of new listings, making investors more selective and cautious about new investments [15]. - The ongoing debate about the sustainability of the AI boom raises concerns about the long-term viability of capital investments in the chip sector [18][19]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Birun's strategy involves a dual focus on immediate product launches, such as the BR20X series, while also planning for long-term developments like the BR30X series [12]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with major telecom players like China Telecom and China Mobile, which provide a foundation for its market presence [20]. - Zhang Wen emphasizes the need for patience and resilience in navigating the challenges of the chip industry, highlighting that success is not solely defined by initial stock performance [21].

Core Themes - The report outlines four major themes impacting the global economy in 2025: tariff waves and trade shocks, AI frenzy and the rise of stablecoins, institutional credibility facing a "trust crisis," and geopolitical rifts alongside technological competition [1][7]. Group 1: Tariff Waves and Trade Shocks - The re-election of Donald Trump has led to a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, with tariffs sharply increasing and causing global trade tensions [6]. - The uncertainty index regarding trade policies has reached historical highs, complicating corporate decision-making [6]. - Historical patterns suggest that large-scale trade conflicts often precede economic recessions, raising market concerns [6]. Group 2: AI Frenzy and Rise of Stablecoins - Investment in AI continues to surge, particularly in semiconductor and cloud computing sectors, with major companies significantly increasing capital expenditures [6]. - There are ongoing discussions about potential AI bubbles, especially as stock performance of major tech companies becomes closely tied to AI narratives [6]. - The passage of the GENIUS Act has provided a regulatory framework for stablecoins, facilitating their market expansion and clearer business models [6]. Group 3: Institutional Credibility and Trust Crisis - Concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and the reliability of economic data have led to rising bond yields and increased interest in "currency debasement" trades [6]. - The U.S. deficit and debt as a percentage of GDP are at historical highs outside of crisis periods, raising alarms about fiscal health [6]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with political pressures affecting its monetary policy [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Rifts and Technological Competition - The ongoing stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine war has prompted Europe to bolster its defense spending, although internal structural issues remain [6]. - The U.S.-China tech rivalry is intensifying, particularly in critical areas like semiconductors and rare earths, with both nations striving for strategic dominance [6]. - Ensuring self-sufficiency in key technologies and supply chain resilience has become a core strategic goal for both countries [6].

摘要 2025年伦敦现货黄金创下近46年最高单年涨幅。尽管年内央行购金节奏放缓，但投机资金涌入推动金价走 高，短期回调主要受情绪和技术性因素驱动，而全球滞胀、秩序混沌、美国赤字货币化的核心支撑逻辑未 变。展望 2026 年，黄金牛市基础依然稳固，上涨趋势未改，且有望外溢至相关有色金属及战略金属领 域。 央行购金方面，在全球政治多极化、美元信用褪色的背景下，全球央行黄金储备占比虽较三年前提升 7 个 百分点至22%，但仍低于冷战末期的29%和1980年大滞胀末期的58%，未来仍有3300吨的潜在购金需求。 76%的受访央行计划未来5年继续增持黄金，央行购金将成为金价的重要支撑力量，约束回调空间。 市场资金层面，黄金作为低相关性、低回撤的对冲工具，在股债相关性走高、传统对冲失效的环境下，配 置价值凸显。风险平价和均值方差策略组合均有明确的黄金配置需求，且大量非机构投资者和传统股债组 合尚未涉足黄金，配置空间广阔。 同时，美联储降息周期延续、AI泡沫后期的对冲需求，将进一步推动市场资金增持黄金。从历史维度 看，本轮黄金牛市并未超涨。以2008年赤字货币化和2022年美元信用转折为起点，金价分别上涨5.7倍和 2.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a significant decline in volatility, potentially leading to a favorable environment for long-term Treasury bonds in 2026, especially if the government shifts towards issuing more short-term debt [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Volatility and Economic Indicators - A key indicator of U.S. Treasury market volatility, the ICE BofA MOVE index, has dropped to approximately 59, the lowest level since October 2021, indicating a substantial decline from a high of about 99 at the end of 2024 [1][4]. - The decline in volatility is attributed to a combination of reduced global tariffs, a shift in the Trump administration's stance, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have contributed to a more stable economic outlook [4][5]. - Economic data suggests that the U.S. is moving closer to a "soft landing," with cooling inflation and a resilient labor market, further reducing uncertainty in financial markets [4][5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates three times since September to prevent a downturn in the labor market, with expectations of two more 25 basis point cuts in 2026 [5][6]. - Market consensus is focused on lower policy rates and a slightly steeper yield curve in 2026, reflecting ongoing discussions about inflation persistence and economic growth resilience [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Treasury Bonds Outlook - If the U.S. Treasury reduces the net supply of 10-year and longer bonds while increasing short-term debt issuance, it could enhance the attractiveness of long-term bonds, potentially marking 2026 as a "reversal year" for these assets [6][7]. - The expectation of lower interest rates and rising global economic uncertainty may drive risk-averse investors towards U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly long-term ones, which are seen as more appealing compared to short-term bonds [7][9]. - Predictions indicate that the yield on 10-year Treasuries could fall below 3.5% by the end of 2026, driven by strong demand and a favorable pricing environment [9][10]. Group 4: Impact on Broader Financial Markets - A sustained decline in the 10-year Treasury yield could positively influence the valuations of risk assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and high-yield corporate bonds, as these assets are sensitive to changes in the risk-free rate [9][10]. - The potential for a new bull market in equities is supported by strong narratives surrounding major tech companies and the AI sector, which could thrive in a low-interest-rate environment [10].