Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's 2025 voting committee shows a split in opinions regarding interest rate cuts, with 5 members favoring gradual reductions and 6 advocating for caution due to concerns about inflation control. Group 1: Support for Rate Cuts (5 Votes) - New York Fed President Williams indicates that the Fed may consider a rate cut "soon" without jeopardizing inflation targets [2] - Fed Governor Waller believes a December rate cut is appropriate, but January's actions are more uncertain [2] - Fed Governor Milan expresses support for a small rate cut in December if his vote is decisive, having previously advocated for a 50 basis point cut in the last two meetings [2] - Fed Governors Bowman and Cook did not express a stance in November but lean towards a rate cut [2] Group 2: Caution Against Rate Cuts (6 Votes) - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson emphasizes the need for caution as rates approach neutral levels [3] - St. Louis Fed President Musalem notes limited room for easing and the need for careful action [3] - Kansas City Fed President Schmidt warns that further rate cuts could have lasting impacts on inflation, opposing cuts in the October meeting [3] - Boston Fed President Collins is skeptical about a December rate cut, asserting that current monetary policy is appropriate [3] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee cautions against premature rate cuts, suggesting that while rates may decline, the current period must be navigated carefully [3] Group 3: Non-2025 Voting Members - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a December rate cut, citing deteriorating labor market conditions [5] - Dallas Fed President Logan finds it difficult to support another December cut unless circumstances change [6] - Philadelphia Fed President Paulson advocates for a cautious approach to the December rate decision, stating that previous cuts have set higher thresholds for future reductions [6] - Cleveland Fed President Hamak emphasizes that rate cuts to support the labor market could lead to persistent inflation and encourages maintaining restrictive rates to curb inflation [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 115,530, up 1,480 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless - steel's main contract is 12,335, up 45 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 148,534, up 10,331 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless - steel's main contract is 204,886, down 29,038 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Nickel Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 116,000, up 1,000 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, down 2 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,000, down 80 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [1] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [2] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted if the companies submit a claim plan and place the claim guarantee by 2025 [2][3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be passed by November 15. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15 [3] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for projects producing "restricted products" through the OSS platform [4] - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel wet - process projects will reduce production loads to clean up tailings slag ponds, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons of production in December [4] - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Group 1: Domestic News - President Xi Jinping and US President Trump had a phone call, emphasizing the importance of stable and positive Sino-US relations and the need for cooperation to benefit both nations and the world [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased net issuance, aligning with market expectations [2] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The interbank market saw significant participation from private enterprises, with over 5.3 billion yuan in sci-tech bonds issued, representing more than 10% of the total issuance in the interbank market [3] - The bond market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the yield on the 10-year government bond slightly decreasing to 1.8120% [9] Group 3: Credit Bond Events - Several companies announced delays in bond repayments, including Fanghai Holdings, which postponed the repayment of approximately 3.56 billion USD in overseas notes until May 2026 [11] - Other companies, such as Fangyuan Real Estate and Xian Construction Group, also reported adjustments to repayment dates or overdue debts, indicating potential credit risks in the market [12][18] Group 4: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective rise in major indices, with the market's trading volume increasing significantly to 618.80 billion yuan, indicating a rebound following previous declines [19] - Notable individual convertible bonds, such as Zhuomei Convertible Bond, experienced a surge of 57%, while others like Tianci Convertible Bond saw declines [19]

美国经济分析局（BEA）信息显示，美国政府停摆期间受影响的数据发布安排如下：①2025年三季度 GDP初值已取消，原定于10月30日发布。②9月PCE（个人消费支出）与个人收入报告将于12月5日上午 （北京时间晚上）10点发布，原定发布时间为10月31日。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看纸白银开盘上涨，价格延续涨势，目前价格高位震荡，上方阻力位关注11.700-12.000，下方支 撑位关注11.000-11.400。 Melek进一步指出："我们正在等待的数据大概率偏软，通胀不会很高，这一切都预示着黄金将有相当亮 眼的表现。"而一旦数据超预期引发鹰派担忧，金价短期或有回调，但趋势性做空窗口已基本关闭。 此外美国经济分析局（BEA）官网最新经济数据发布安排显示，该国2025年第三季度GDP初值及企业利 润初值将于12月23日上午8:30（北京时间21:30）发布。该报告将取代原定11月26日发布的第三季度 GDP修正值及企业利润初值。另外，原定12月19日发布的第三季度GDP终值、分行业GDP及企业利润修 正值将调整发布时间，具体日期该机构暂未更新。 今日周二(11月25日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于11. ...

据华尔街日报报道，美国旧金山联储主席、2027年FOMC票委戴利表示，她支持在下个月降息，因为她 认为就业市场突然恶化的可能性比通胀骤然上升更大，也更难以控制。 她在周一的采访中说："在劳动力市场上，我没有信心我们能走在前面。现在劳动力市场已足够脆弱， 风险在于发生非线性变化。" 她表示，相比之下，通胀爆发的风险较低，因为关税推动的成本增长比今年早些时候的预期要温和得 多。戴利的观点值得关注，尽管她今年对货币政策没有投票权，但她很少在公开场合与美联储主席鲍威 尔持不同意见。 今日周二(11月25日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于51.34一线上方，今日开盘于51.37美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报51.41美元/盎司，上涨0.13%，最高触及51.49美元/盎司，最低下探50.97美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 在12月9日至10日的会议上，戴利可能会在解决利率制定委员会内部关于是降息还是暂停加息的分歧上 发挥关键作用。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银在趋势中走出上涨空间，目前最高在51.4，白银预计在48.5/52.5区间看待，坚持看到52.5附 近，如果在本周 ...

沃勒称，最新数据显示就业市场依然疲弱，但他补充称，12月会议后将发布大量延迟的经济报告，这可 能使1月的决策"略显棘手"。 他说："如果通胀或就业突然出现反弹，或者经济开始起飞，那么这可能会引起人们的担忧。我仍然认 为，未来六到八周内劳动力市场不会出现好转。" 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 伦敦银短期内恢复上升趋势，但交易商需要清除11月13日高点52.46美元的关键阻力位。突破52.46美元 将暴露出10月中旬触及的54.46美元年度高点，随后是55.00美元的里程碑。 今日周二(11月25日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于51.42一线上方，今日开盘于51.37美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报51.49美元/盎司，上涨0.28%，最高触及51.58美元/盎司，最低下探50.97美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储理事沃勒表示，他主张在12月降息，不过美联储在明年1月收到大量经济数据后，很可能会采取 逐次会议的决策方式。 沃勒表示："就我们的双重使命而言，我主要担心的是劳动力市场。所以我主张在下次会议上降息，到 了明年1月，你可能会看到更多按逐次会议决定的情况。" 期货合约显示 ...

摘要北京时间周二（11月25日）亚市盘中，美元指数交投于100.153附近，现货黄金开盘于4135.90美元/ 盎司，目前交投于4126.40美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于940.54元/克附近，沪金主力交投于945.36元/克 附近。 北京时间周二（11月25日）亚市盘中，美元指数交投于100.153附近，现货黄金开盘于4135.90美元/盎 司，目前交投于4126.40美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于940.54元/克附近，沪金主力交投于945.36元/克附 近。 上一交易日美元指数收跌0.00%，报100.187，现货黄金收涨1.72%，报4134.63美元/盎司。在现货黄金下 跌之际，其他贵金属纷纷上涨：现货白银收涨2.68%，报51.34美元/盎司；现货铂金收涨2.15%，报 1543.55美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨1.84%，至1400.00美元/盎司。 1、美国总统特朗普：（谈及乌克兰会谈）可能有好事发生，乌克兰谈判可能正在取得进展。德国总理 默茨：本周乌克兰谈判不会取得突破。乌克兰官员：此前的28点和平计划已不复存在，美乌已起草新的 19点和平计划，但政治上最敏感的部分将留给两国总统决定。泽连 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 945.11 yuan per gram, with a 1.20% increase, reaching a high of 946.15 yuan and a low of 933.39 yuan [1] - The short-term outlook for paper gold is bullish [1] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December will heavily depend on Chairman Powell's personal decisions [2] - Powell has the flexibility to either push for a rate cut or signal that the current cycle is ending after a potential cut, balancing economic support and inflation control [2] - The decision-making power regarding interest rates is more concentrated in Powell's hands than in the past, with the market closely watching for a possible "one-time rate cut" strategy [2] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for paper gold are identified between 950 yuan and 980 yuan per gram, while important support levels are between 930 yuan and 950 yuan per gram [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a non - industry - rated daily report on non - ferrous metals dated November 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views - For copper, with Fed officials turning dovish, reduced geopolitical risks, tight raw material supply, and strong downstream demand, copper prices are well - supported [3][4] - For aluminum, low global visible inventory and supply disruption expectations support aluminum prices, and it may strengthen after adjustment [6][7] - For lead, due to increased supply, stable domestic demand, and weak overseas market, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [8][9] - For zinc, although zinc ore is currently tight, it will loosen in the long - run. With weak financial assets globally, zinc prices may be weak in the short - term [10][11] - For tin, short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Considering price suppression on consumption and eased ore shortage, tin prices are expected to fluctuate [12][13] - For nickel, with increasing supply, weak demand, and possible cost - price negative feedback, nickel prices are under pressure [15][16] - For lithium carbonate, with easing position contradictions, weakening downstream demand, and potential supply and valuation factors, lithium prices may be weak but with an expected higher bottom [19][20] - For alumina, with recovering overseas ore supply, over - capacity in smelting, and prices near the cost line, it's recommended to wait and see [22][23] - For stainless steel, due to over - supply, weak demand, and falling costs, prices are expected to decline [25][26] - For cast aluminum alloy, with strong cost support and policy - induced supply disruptions, prices are expected to fluctuate [28][29] Group 3: Copper Market Information - LME copper 3M contract rose 0.03% to $10,781/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 86,040 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 725 tons to 155,750 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by about 14,000 tons, bonded area inventory increased slightly, and SHFE daily warrants decreased by 6,000 tons to 44,000 tons. Shanghai spot premium over futures dropped to 85 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong, it rose to 125 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss widened to about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened to 2,820 yuan/ton [3] Strategy - The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 85,600 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $10,680 - 10,900/ton [4] Group 4: Aluminum Market Information - LME aluminum rose 0.18% to $2,813/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,405 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 8,000 to 605,000 lots, and futures warrants decreased by 1,000 tons to 68,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar social inventories decreased by 8,000 tons each. LME aluminum inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 546,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rebounded. Cash/3M remained at a discount [6] Strategy - The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,300 - 21,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,780 - 2,830/ton [7] Group 5: Lead Market Information - SHFE lead index fell 0.19% to 17,132 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $5.5 to $1,992/ton. SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,075 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,600 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 262,900 tons [8] Strategy - Due to increased supply and weak demand, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [9] Group 6: Zinc Market Information - SHFE zinc index rose 0.01% to 22,398 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $17 to $3,006.5/ton. SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,380 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 74,600 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 47,300 tons [10] Strategy - Although zinc ore is currently tight, it will loosen in the long - run. With weak financial assets globally, zinc prices may be weak in the short - term [11] Group 7: Tin Market Information - On November 24, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 293,510 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. Tin smelting in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained stable at a high level, but raw material supply was tight. In October 2025, China imported 11,632 tons of tin concentrate, and imports from Congo (Kinshasa) recovered. Tin imports from Myanmar may increase by over 2,000 tons in November. Traditional demand is weak, but emerging sectors support tin prices. National tin ingot social inventory increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons [12] Strategy - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate. The recommended operating range for domestic main contract is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $36,000 - 38,000/ton [13] Group 8: Nickel Market Information - SHFE nickel main contract rebounded 1.30% to 115,530 yuan/ton. Spot premiums were stable. Nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices continued to fall [15] Strategy - Nickel prices are under pressure. It's not recommended to short or bottom - fish. Wait for nickel iron prices to stabilize. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [16][17] Group 9: Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 2.06% to 90,311 yuan. LC2601 contract closed at 90,480 yuan, down 0.59% [19] Strategy - With easing position contradictions and weakening downstream demand, lithium prices may be weak. The expected operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 86,600 - 94,600 yuan/ton [20] Group 10: Alumina Market Information - On November 24, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.84% to 2,760 yuan/ton. Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 68 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract. Overseas, MYSTEEL Australia FOB remained at $319/ton, with an import loss of 43 yuan/ton. Futures warrants increased by 3,600 tons to 254,500 tons [22] Strategy - With recovering overseas ore supply and over - capacity in smelting, it's recommended to wait and see. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [23] Group 11: Stainless Steel Market Information - SHFE stainless steel main contract closed at 12,335 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi showed different trends. Raw material prices were stable. Futures inventory decreased by 5,441 tons to 64,924 tons, and social inventory decreased to 1,071,700 tons [25] Strategy - Due to over - supply, weak demand, and falling costs, stainless steel prices are expected to decline [26] Group 12: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The main AD2601 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.19% to 20,635 yuan/ton. Weighted contract positions decreased to 23,500 lots, and trading volume was 7,300 lots. Domestic three - region aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 300 tons to 50,200 tons [28] Strategy - With strong cost support and policy - induced supply disruptions, prices are expected to fluctuate [29]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has a short-term support reference at 25,000 points, with recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve indicating limited room for rate cuts in 2026. Economic conditions in mainland China are cooling, and corporate earnings in Hong Kong are unlikely to improve significantly in the short term [2][5] - The U.S. stock market has shown volatility, particularly in tech stocks, raising concerns about valuations in the AI industry. The Hang Seng Index has seen substantial gains this year, leading to profit-taking incentives as year-end approaches [2][5] Company News - XPeng Motors (小鵬) has seen a surge in orders for its first range-extended vehicle, prompting the supply chain to increase production by 5,000 units to meet demand. The X9 model was launched at a price lower than its pre-sale price, indicating strong market interest [4][12] - Lei Jun, the founder of Xiaomi (小米), has increased his stake in the company to 23.26% by purchasing over HKD 100 million worth of shares, signaling confidence in Xiaomi's future despite recent stock price declines [4][12] - UBTECH Robotics (優必選) announced a share placement at an 11.4% discount, raising approximately HKD 30.56 billion, with plans to invest in potential acquisitions and business operations [5][12] - The company also secured a contract worth HKD 2.64 billion for humanoid robots, expected to be delivered in December [12] Industry Insights - The insurance sector is benefiting from strong investment returns driven by the performance of A-shares [8] - The coal sector is anticipated to see upward price momentum for thermal coal [8] - The lithium industry is reportedly at the bottom of its cycle and entering an upward phase, with increasing demand from automotive manufacturers and energy storage systems [12]