美联储的人事变动也依然扑朔迷离。本周，美联储理事候选人米兰（Stephen Miran）参加了参议院的听证会，他在听证会上强调，将维护美联储 的独立性。米兰或将参与9月议息会议。 美联储理事候选人米兰（Stephen Miran）参加了参议院的听证会。视觉中国 图 距美联储9月议息会议召开还有十天，美联储官员仍在争论是否应该降息。美联储理事、下任美联储主席的热门人选沃勒（Christopher Waller） 称，美联储应于9月议息会议开始降息，但也有官员表示，9月没有降息的理由。 此前，受美联储原理事库格勒（Adriana Kugler）辞职、美联储理事库克被解雇等事件的影响，市场对美联储独立性的质疑再起。 美联储9月议息会议将于当地时间9月16日-17日举行。 "激辩"降息时机 距美联储9月议息会议召开还有十天，美联储官员仍在激辩是否应该降息。 当地时间9月4日，克里拉夫联储主席哈马克（Beth Hammack）在接受采访时表示，目前通胀仍然过高，鉴于当前数据显示通胀仍高于美联储2% 的目标且持续上升，9月没有降息的理由。 当地时间9月3日，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆（Alberto Musalem）在一场 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Sector Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] Group 2: Macro and Crude Oil News - OPEC+ may decide to increase oil production in October, potentially starting to lift the second-layer production cut plan with a reduction of about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. The market expected a 2 - 3 - month pause in production increase. The OPEC+ meeting on September 7 is awaited [4]. - Trump hinted at imposing second and third - stage oil sanctions on Russia, and the US hopes Europe will stop buying Russian oil and join proposed sanctions against countries that continue to buy [4]. - Fed officials including Williams, Waller, and Kashkari indicated that it is appropriate to cut interest rates in response to rising risks in the job market and the current economic situation [4]. - The US added 54,000 ADP jobs in August, lower than the expected 65,000. The initial jobless claims last week increased to 237,000. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed at the September 17 policy meeting [5]. - The US Labor Day marks the end of the summer travel season, leading to a seasonal decline in gasoline consumption. As of August 29, the US daily crude oil production was 13.423 million barrels, down 16,000 barrels from the previous week but up 123,000 barrels from the same period last year. The commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.42 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 1.68 million barrels [6]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Prices | Type | 2025/9/4 | 2025/8/28 | Week Change | Week - on - Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous (USD/barrel) | 63.3 | 64.27 | - 1 | - 1.51% | | Naphtha (USD/ton) | 592.5 | 593.88 | - 1.38 | - 0.23% | | PX511 (CNY/ton) | 6680 | 6886 | - 206 | - 2.99% | | PX CFR: Taiwan Province (CNY/ton) | 6780.87 | 6951.22 | - 170.35 | - 2.45% | | TA601 (CNY/ton) | 4656 | 4792 | - 136 | - 2.84% | | PTA Spot Benchmark Price (CNY/ton) | 4615 | 4775 | - 160 | - 3.35% | | EG601 (CNY/ton) | 4357 | 4465 | - 108 | - 2.42% | | Ethylene Glycol East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 4456 | 4525 | - 69 | - 1.52% | | PF511 (CNY/ton) | 6330 | 6526 | - 196 | - 3.00% | | Polyester Staple Fiber East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 6450 | 6555 | - 105 | - 1.60% | | PR511 (CNY/ton) | 5820 | 5982 | - 162 | - 2.71% | | Polyester Bottle Chip East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 5790 | 5860 | - 70 | - 1.19% | [8] Group 4: PX Supply - Domestic PX supply was stable this week. As of September 4, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 84.63% (unchanged), and the weekly output was 709,800 tons (unchanged). Asian PX supply was also stable, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 74.46% (unchanged) [11]. - Next week, Dalian Fujia's 700,000 - ton and Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton PX plants will be under maintenance, while Fuhai Chuang's 1.6 - million - ton plant is planned to restart, and the PX weekly output is expected to increase slightly [11]. Group 5: PTA Supply and Inventory - This week, the overall domestic PTA supply decreased due to the co - existence of maintenance and restart of two sets of Taihua's plants and the supply reduction caused by the maintenance of Dushan Energy last week. As of September 4, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 69.48% (- 1.38 percentage points), and the weekly output was 1.2893 million tons (- 23,600 tons). Next week, Hengli Huizhou has a restart plan, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly [14]. - This week, PTA social inventory continued to decline. As of September 4, the available days of PTA in - plant inventory were 3.9 days (+ 0.09 days), the PTA inventory of polyester plants was 7.05 days (- 0.50 days), and the PTA social inventory was about 3.3795 million tons (- 152,600 tons) [14]. Group 6: Ethylene Glycol Supply and Inventory - This week, the domestic ethylene glycol supply increased as multiple plants increased their loads. As of September 4, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 67.45% (+ 2.34 percentage points), including 66.84% for integrated plants (+ 1.64 percentage points) and 68.34% for coal - based ethylene glycol plants (+ 3.46 percentage points), and the weekly output was 410,000 tons (+ 14,200 tons). Xinjiang Tianye and Inner Mongolia Jianyuan plants are planned to be under maintenance, and the domestic supply is expected to decrease slightly next week [18]. - This week, the port inventory of ethylene glycol decreased. As of September 4, the total inventory in East China ports was 376,300 tons, down 36,900 tons from last Thursday and 13,300 tons from this Monday. Although the arriving goods will increase next week, the inland supply will decrease, and the port may continue to reduce inventory [18]. Group 7: Polyester Sector - The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.33%, up 0.67 percentage points from the previous week [19]. - This week, the inventory of polyester filament and staple fiber increased [22]. Group 8: Terminal Market - As of September 4, the operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.42% (+ 0.44), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.89 days (+ 1.17 days), and the inventory days of grey cloth were 26.59 days (- 0.32 days) [28]. Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply is recovering, but the overall pressure is not high. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has started, but the actual improvement in demand is limited. The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the polyester sector will passively follow the cost fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting results and the impact of anti - involution sentiment [30]. - Medium - and long - term: The demand is expected to improve, and the operating center of the polyester sector tends to move up [31]. - Next week's focus and risk warnings include geopolitical situation changes, the OPEC+ meeting, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream plants [31]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over President Trump's intervention in Federal Reserve policy and unpredictable tariff policies are causing investors to shy away from holding dollar assets [1] Group 1 - Bart Wakabayashi, manager at State Street Securities' Tokyo branch, indicates that the dollar is currently underweighted and suggests there may be room for a rebound in dollar buying at some point [1] - Investors may be waiting for interest rate cuts to materialize before re-entering the dollar market [1]

特朗普的降息梦似乎又进了一步。 当地时间周四，美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）公布的数据显示，美国8月份"小非农"数据低于预期，具体来看，美国8月ADP就业人数增加了5.4万人，低 于市场预期。 此外，周四公布初请失业金数据也令人失望。美国截至8月30日当周初请失业金人数增加了8000人，达到23.7万人，为2025年6月21日当周以来新高。 高盛团队亦表示，美国制度公信力面临的日益增长的担忧正在催生"重大的尾部风险"，可能引发包括黄金在内的大宗商品价格的飙升。 特朗普宴请科技大佬，马斯克缺席了？ 当地时间9月4日，美国总统特朗普在白宫玫瑰园举办晚宴，招待二十多位科技行业大佬。嘉宾包括Meta创始人扎克伯格、苹果（AAPL.US）首席执行官蒂 姆·库克、微软（MSFT.US）创始人比尔·盖茨、OpenAI 首席执行官萨姆·奥特曼等。 然而，全球科技圈的顶流、特斯拉（TSLA.US）创始人马斯克却并未出席，这无疑引发了舆论的好奇，二人此前爆发激烈争吵，马斯克甚至扬言创立美国 党，和特朗普针锋相对，二人关系似乎"破镜难以重圆"。 对此，马斯克回应称，他受邀参加周四在白宫新装修的玫瑰园举行的科技领袖峰会，但无法出席。 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.17, while spot silver opened at $40.66/oz and is currently around $40.72/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9752 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 9767 CNY/kg. Key focus today includes the US unemployment rate for August, adjusted non-farm payrolls, and average hourly wage changes [1] - On September 4, the dollar index rose by 0.13% to close at 98.27. Spot silver closed at $40.62/oz, down 1.38%, as the August "small non-farm" data fell short of expectations, causing silver to drop below $41/oz. Spot gold also saw a decline of 0.38% to $3545.53/oz, ending a seven-day rally [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 50.83 tons to 15230.57 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On September 4, the payment direction for deferred compensation fees was Ag(T+D)—short paying long [2] Economic Indicators - The US August "small non-farm" payrolls recorded an increase of 54,000, below the expected 65,000, with the previous value revised from 104,000 to 106,000. Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, the highest level since June [3] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US fell to 6.5%, the lowest since October 17 of the previous year, down from 6.56% the previous week. This decline may attract hesitant homebuyers, although many are still waiting for more significant rate cuts [4] Silver Price Analysis - The silver market opened at 41.191, experienced a slight rise to 41.221, and then saw a strong pullback, reaching a low of 40.387 before closing at 40.658. The market is currently awaiting non-farm payroll results, with suggested trading positions around 39.5 and targets set at 40.5, 40.7, and 41-41.2 [4]

20250905申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 美国司法部已对美联储理事库克展开刑事调查，并发出传票。随着美国总统特朗普试图对美联 储施加影响并推动降息，投资者对美联储独立性的担忧日益加剧。摩根大通团队表示，投资者 正在为潜在的通胀上升做准备。高盛分析师认为，对美联储信誉的"日益担忧"正在引发"重 大尾部风险"。 白宫表示，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，正式实施美日贸易协定。据悉，该行政令将明确关 税调整措施，确保此前已征收较高关税的日本进口产品不会被双重征税，而此前税率低于15%的 商品将调整至新税率。此外，白宫表示，日本正致力于加快落实将美国大米采购量增加75%的计 划。 美国7月贸易逆差环比飙升32.5%至783亿美元，高于市场预期的757亿美元，创四个月新高。7月 进口总额激增5.9%至3588亿美元，出口总额小幅增长0.3%至2805亿美元。 黄金收敛突破后，获利回吐价格回落。市场聚焦周五非农就业数据。美国职位空缺数量减少 17.6万个，降至718.1万个，低于预期的737.8万。上周特朗普试图解雇美联储理事，挑战美联 储独立性的行为令市场感到不安。美国地质勘探局提议将白银等六种矿产纳入2025年关键矿 ...

来源：华尔街情报圈 美国市场得救了，一改股市下跌，收益率飙升的格局——这为中国市场开盘创造了稳定的外部环境。 - 美国三大股指全线上涨，而且涨幅不小，均接近1%； - 10年期美债收益率跌至4.16%，30年期美债收益率跌至4.85%。 虽说危机警报短暂接触，但背后原因并不清晰——现在一切转向今晚20:00公布的美国8月非农就业数据。 华尔街已经把 9月降息当成"默认选项"。唯一可能让市场犹豫的，就是今晚的非农报告——市场预期非农就业7.5万人，失业率升到4.3%。 第一，市场的预期值，是特朗普最希望看到的结果。就业市场"轻微降温"，放缓但不崩盘，这样既能降息，又不会让人担心经济硬着陆。 第二，现在人们对这份数据的期待有所不同。过去是观察，是否支撑降息25基点。但现在市场观察的是极端情况，即"是否动摇降息信心"、以及"是否支 持降息50基点"。 如果非农出奇好，大幅高于市场预期（就业人数超15万），那么可能会动摇市场降息的信心。 如果非农惨到极点（接近0或负数，失业率跳升），那么市场可能掀起对大幅降息的炒作——但这对市场来说也是坏消息。 第二种"爆表"的可能性不大。因为过去30年，8月就业数据如果意外，通常都 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 350.06 points (0.77%) at 45621.29, the Nasdaq up 209.97 points (0.98%) at 21707.69, and the S&P 500 up 53.82 points (0.83%) at 6502.08 [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 237,000, the highest level since June, indicating a cooling labor market [1] European Market - The German DAX30 index rose by 165.61 points (0.70%) to 23766.14, while the French CAC40 index fell by 20.79 points (0.27%) to 7698.92 [2] Asia-Pacific Market - The Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.53%, and the KOSPI index rose by 0.52% [3] Commodities - Crude oil prices fell, with WTI down $0.49 to $63.48 per barrel (0.77%) and Brent down $0.61 to $66.99 per barrel (0.90%) [3] - Gold prices decreased, with spot gold down 0.40% to $3545.26 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures fell 0.95% to $3601.00 per ounce [5] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin dropped by 1.09% to $110,522.36, and Ethereum fell over 2.9% to $4,321.99 [4] - Nasdaq is increasing scrutiny on companies' cryptocurrency investments, reflecting growing regulatory concerns [4] Macro News - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with ADP reporting a lower-than-expected increase in private sector employment of 54,000 jobs in August [6][7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider a 0.25% rate cut in its upcoming meeting due to concerns over a weakening job market [6][7] Company News - Intel's CFO stated that 2026 will be a critical turning point for the company's manufacturing technology, determining its readiness for advanced process technologies [10] - Google announced a commitment of $150 million over three years to support AI education and digital health initiatives [11] Ratings Changes - UBS lowered the target price for C3.ai from $23 to $16, while Bernstein raised TSMC's target price from $249 to $290 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September is expected to show significant internal divisions among its members [1] Group 1: Dovish Members - Dovish members such as Waller, Bowman, Daly, and the likely confirmed nominee Milan may advocate for further rate cuts [1] Group 2: Hawkish Members - Hawkish members including Harmack, Bostic, Musalim, and Schmidt emphasize the risks associated with inflation [1] Group 3: Potential Outcomes - Even if a 25 basis point rate cut occurs in the September meeting, there may still be dissenting votes within the committee [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's third-in-command, Williams, suggests that it is appropriate to lower interest rates over time, emphasizing the need to ensure tariffs do not lead to widespread inflation and warning that maintaining overly restrictive policies for too long could pose risks to employment [1] Group 1 - Williams indicates that a gradual reduction in interest rates is suitable as time progresses [1] - There is a necessity to ensure that tariffs do not result in broad inflationary pressures [1] - Prolonged maintenance of excessively restrictive monetary policies may jeopardize employment levels [1]