[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 8 Jun 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 宽幅震荡升级在即，继续回避微盘股和新消费风险 Broad Consolidation About to Intensify; Remain Cautious on Micro-Caps and New Consumer Names 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为当前市场处于宽幅震荡中，回调仍未结束，尤其需要规避短期过热的A股小微盘股及港股新消费板 块。本周一，受中美贸易摩擦影响，恒生指数早盘一度跌近2.7%，恒生科技最多跌3.1%，两者从5月高点分别累计 回撤5.2%、8.9%。这波下跌充分释放了市场对中美贸易不确定性的担忧，因此市场进入宽幅震荡以来 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The U.S. Treasury yield curve rebounded across the board due to the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data, and the Fedwatch shows that the pricing for interest rate cuts this year is less than two times. The U.S. internal game uncertainty has increased, and the U.S. Treasury yield may still fluctuate at a high level [1][41][42] - In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index has closed up for four consecutive trading days, challenging 3400 points. Core technology sectors have performed well, and micro - cap stocks have continued the valuation repair trend. Next week, the overall opportunities may outweigh the risks [1][42] - In terms of convertible bond styles, equal - weighted leads weighted, small - cap leads large - cap, high - price leads low - price, and AAA - rated bonds perform weakly while medium - and low - rated bonds perform strongly [1][42] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Market Review 1.1. The equity market rose overall, and most industries closed up - From June 2nd to June 6th, the equity market rose overall. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 1011.75 billion yuan to 11856.64 billion yuan, with a weekly on - week increase of 9.33% [9] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries closed up. Communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, computers, and basic chemicals led the gains, while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel led the losses [15] 1.2. The convertible bond market rose overall, and most industries closed up - From June 2nd to June 6th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 28 industries closed up, with 7 industries having a gain of over 2%. Media, communication, computers, household appliances, and beauty care led the gains, while building materials led the losses [18] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 515.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.67 billion yuan, with a on - week change of - 7.15%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 104.79 billion yuan, and the first - ranked one had a trading volume of 233.31 billion yuan [18] - Approximately 90.53% of convertible bond issues rose, about 37.68% had a gain in the 0 - 1% range, and 22.95% had a gain of over 2% [18] 1.3. Comparison of stock and bond market sentiments - From June 2nd to June 6th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly gain. The trading volume of both the convertible bond and underlying stock markets decreased significantly, and the underlying stock market had a larger decline in trading volume and a lower quantile level [36] - Approximately 89.71% of convertible bonds and 77.70% of underlying stocks closed up. About 40.36% of convertible bonds had a larger gain or loss than underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [36] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategies - The U.S. Treasury yield may still fluctuate at a high level due to the increase in internal game uncertainty in the U.S [1][41][42] - In the domestic market, next week's opportunities may outweigh risks. It is recommended to allocate core technology themes that have corrected significantly and focus on medium - and low - priced targets with low business uncertainty, sufficient cash, and a positive attitude towards equity investment and mergers and acquisitions [1][42] - The top ten high - rated, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Qilu Convertible Bond, Chuanheng Convertible Bond, Youfa Convertible Bond, Wankai Convertible Bond, Dayu Convertible Bond, Qizheng Convertible Bond, Baidian Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, Wantian Convertible Bond, and Jinlun Convertible Bond [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Diffusion Index Model - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is used to monitor the critical points of future diffusion index changes, predicting potential turning points in the market[6][43] - **Model Construction Process**: - The horizontal axis represents the relative price change of stocks in the micro-cap index components over a future period, ranging from +10% to -10% - The vertical axis represents the length of the review or forecast window, ranging from 20 days to 10 days - For example, a value of 0.16 at the intersection of a -5% price change (horizontal axis) and a 15-day window (vertical axis) indicates the diffusion index value under these conditions - The model uses historical data to calculate the diffusion index for different scenarios and predicts the likelihood of market turning points based on these values[43][45] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic way to identify potential market turning points, but its accuracy depends on the stability of the index components and market conditions[6][43] - **Model Testing Results**: - Current diffusion index value: 0.91 - Historical signals: - Left-side threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 8, 2025, with a value of 0.9850[47] - Right-side threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 15, 2025, with a value of 0.8975[51] - Dual moving average method triggered a buy signal on April 30, 2025[52] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Leverage Factor - **Factor Name**: Leverage Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the financial leverage of companies, indicating their risk and potential return[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the ratio of total debt to equity or assets, normalized for comparison across companies[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong performance in the current week, with a rank IC of 0.143, significantly above its historical average of -0.006[5][38] Turnover Factor - **Factor Name**: Turnover Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the liquidity of stocks, with higher turnover indicating more active trading[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the ratio of trading volume to free float market capitalization over a specific period[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of 0.051 this week, outperforming its historical average of -0.08[5][38] PB Inverse Factor - **Factor Name**: PB Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the inverse of the price-to-book ratio, identifying undervalued stocks[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as 1 divided by the price-to-book ratio, normalized for comparison[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of 0.042 this week, slightly above its historical average of 0.034[5][38] Free Float Ratio Factor - **Factor Name**: Free Float Ratio Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proportion of shares available for public trading, indicating potential liquidity[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the ratio of free float shares to total shares outstanding[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of 0.04 this week, outperforming its historical average of -0.012[5][38] 10-Day Return Factor - **Factor Name**: 10-Day Return Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures short-term momentum by analyzing recent stock performance[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the percentage change in stock price over the past 10 trading days[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of 0.025 this week, significantly above its historical average of -0.061[5][38] Non-Adjusted Stock Price Factor - **Factor Name**: Non-Adjusted Stock Price Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the raw stock price without adjustments for splits or dividends[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Directly uses the stock's current market price[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of -0.19 this week, underperforming its historical average of -0.017[5][38] PE_TTM Inverse Factor - **Factor Name**: PE_TTM Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio based on trailing twelve months, identifying undervalued stocks[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as 1 divided by the PE_TTM ratio, normalized for comparison[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of -0.143 this week, underperforming its historical average of 0.018[5][38] ROE (Single Quarter) Factor - **Factor Name**: ROE (Single Quarter) Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the profitability of companies based on their return on equity for a single quarter[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as net income divided by shareholders' equity for the most recent quarter[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of -0.124 this week, underperforming its historical average of 0.023[5][38] Nonlinear Market Cap Factor - **Factor Name**: Nonlinear Market Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the nonlinear relationship between market capitalization and stock performance[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Applies a nonlinear transformation to market capitalization data, such as logarithmic or polynomial adjustments[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of -0.116 this week, underperforming its historical average of -0.033[5][38] Log Market Cap Factor - **Factor Name**: Log Market Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the logarithmic transformation of market capitalization to reduce skewness[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the natural logarithm of market capitalization[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of -0.116 this week, underperforming its historical average of -0.033[5][38] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Leverage Factor**: Rank IC 0.143[5][38] - **Turnover Factor**: Rank IC 0.051[5][38] - **PB Inverse Factor**: Rank IC 0.042[5][38] - **Free Float Ratio Factor**: Rank IC 0.04[5][38] - **10-Day Return Factor**: Rank IC 0.025[5][38] - **Non-Adjusted Stock Price Factor**: Rank IC -0.19[5][38] - **PE_TTM Inverse Factor**: Rank IC -0.143[5][38] - **ROE (Single Quarter) Factor**: Rank IC -0.124[5][38] - **Nonlinear Market Cap Factor**: Rank IC -0.116[5][38] - **Log Market Cap Factor**: Rank IC -0.116[5][38]

盈信量化（首源投资）A股早盘三大指数低开后突然集体拉升，个股涨多跌少，银行板块更是创出历史新高，乍一看像是"稳了"，但仔细琢磨却透着不对 劲。护盘资金在台前卖力表演，但台下观众的反应却有些冷淡。 虽然主力拉银行股，但证券板块也不甘示弱，也走出了强势阵营。 题材股的表现同样尴尬。早盘算力硬件、CPO等概念活跃，但午后多数回落，微盘股指数更是暴跌3.6%。这种"一日游"行情说明资金对题材炒作缺乏信心。 早盘指数拉升，成交量还是比较正常，沪深两市半日成交额仅7639亿，这种情况，要么是主力资金高度控盘，要么是市场追涨意愿不足。这次显然更偏向后 者——银行板块虽然涨得欢，但主力资金净流出60亿元。 结语：现在关注成交量变化和板块资金流向，别被银行股的"虚火"冲昏头脑，也别错过那些被错杀的优质股。 银行股和微盘股同时创出新高。银行股的上涨可能是机构抱团取暖，而微盘股则更像游资炒作的"击鼓传花"。这种分化就像一桌宴席，有人在大鱼大肉，有 人却只能啃骨头，很难形成真正的合力。 煤炭、电力、家电等传统核心资产下跌，而银行、券商等金融股逆势走强，这种"跷跷板"效应暴露了市场的分歧。银行股的强势虽然暂时稳住了指数，却也 虹吸了其 ...

Performance Overview - The Wande Micro Stock Index increased by 2.65% over the past week, ranking 2nd among 38 broad-based indices[4] - The index rose by 11.76% in the past month, ranking 1st among 38 broad-based indices[26] - Over the last quarter, the index saw a 17.92% increase, also ranking 1st among 38 broad-based indices[27] - In the past year, the index surged by 75.4%, ranking 2nd among 38 broad-based indices[29] Factor Analysis - The top five internal factors for the micro stocks this week include the leverage factor (0.143), trading volume factor (0.051), and PB inverse factor (0.042) with historical averages of -0.006, -0.08, and 0.034 respectively[5] - The bottom five factors include the unadjusted stock price factor (-0.19) and PE_TTM inverse factor (-0.143), with historical averages of -0.017 and 0.018 respectively[5] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The micro stocks are expected to reach a turning point soon, with a potential buy signal if the weekly drop exceeds 6%[6] - The current market conditions suggest limited room for further declines, indicating a possibility of maintaining high levels without a pullback[6] Calendar Effects - The Wande Micro Stock Index shows positive average returns on Tuesdays and Thursdays, while Mondays and Wednesdays tend to have negative average returns[7] - The index achieved an 84% win rate in February and a 90% win rate in March and May during the 2024-2025 period[7] Risk Factors - Key risks identified include policy risk, public sentiment risk, and liquidity risk[8]

Core Viewpoint - Huicheng Environmental has seen a dramatic stock price increase of over 15 times since November 2022, making it the top-performing stock in the A-share market during this period, despite significant discrepancies between its stock price and fundamental performance [1][2]. Summary by Sections Stock Performance - Huicheng Environmental's stock price reached a historical high on May 30, 2023, with a cumulative increase of 15.2 times since November 2022, marking it as the top "demon stock" since then [3][4]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 77.52% in 2023, with monthly gains exceeding 20% for most months [3][4]. - The stock's market capitalization is currently 34 billion yuan, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 2468 times, significantly higher than the industry average of 48 times [1][4]. Business Model and Market Context - Huicheng Environmental specializes in solid waste treatment and resource recovery, primarily serving oil refining companies [3][4]. - The environmental sector has seen a resurgence due to favorable policies, with the Wind environmental index rising by 11.91% in 2023 [4]. Institutional and Retail Investor Activity - Institutional investors, including foreign entities like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have participated in Huicheng Environmental's stock but have not been the primary drivers of its price increase [5][6]. - Retail investors have shown significant interest, but there has been a lack of evidence of speculative trading from major retail players during the stock's rise [4][5]. Financial Performance and Volatility - The company's revenue has fluctuated significantly, with a notable drop in net profit in 2024, down 69.25% year-on-year, despite a revenue increase of 7.33% [8][9]. - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 1.071 billion yuan, a 194.76% increase, attributed to successful project completions [7][8]. - The company's profitability is under pressure due to declining demand for refined oil products and reliance on a concentrated customer base in Shandong province [9]. Future Outlook - Huicheng Environmental is focusing on a new project for plastic waste recycling, which is expected to be a key growth area, although its contribution to revenue remains uncertain as of May 2023 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Huicheng Environmental Protection is significantly inflated, with a TTM P/E ratio of 2468 and an estimated P/E ratio of 184 for 2025, while the average P/E ratio for the environmental sector is around 48 [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Huicheng Environmental Protection's stock price has surged over 15 times since November 2022, making it the top-performing stock in the A-share market during this period [1][2]. - The stock experienced a 28.33% increase in the last two weeks of May, despite a general market downturn, indicating a potential topping pattern [2]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 77.52%, with monthly gains exceeding 20% in most months [2]. Group 2: Business Model and Market Position - The company specializes in solid waste treatment and disposal services, focusing on the processing and recycling of waste catalysts for refining enterprises [2][3]. - Huicheng Environmental Protection's business model includes waste catalyst treatment, resource recycling, and sales of recycled catalysts [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company reported a significant revenue increase in 2023, achieving 1.071 billion yuan, a 194.76% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 138 million yuan, a 55-fold increase [6]. - However, the company has faced profitability challenges in 2024, with a projected revenue of 1.149 billion yuan, a 7.33% increase, but a net profit decline of 69.25% [7]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a continued net loss of 10.336 million yuan, with revenue down 4.27% to 285 million yuan [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The environmental protection sector has seen a rise in interest due to policy catalysts, but Huicheng Environmental Protection's performance is not aligned with its stock price [3][6]. - The company's reliance on the refining catalyst business is concerning, as demand for refined oil is declining due to the rise of electric vehicles and regional economic pressures [7]. - The company is attempting to diversify by developing a waste plastic recycling project, which is still in the preparatory phase and has uncertain revenue contributions [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of May 30, 2025, the average position of active equity funds dropped to a low point this year [2]. - In the short - term, one should be cautious about the sustainability of the excess returns of micro - cap stocks and control the allocation risk of micro - cap style related assets [3]. - It is recommended to focus on high - quality targets with improved profitability and solid fundamentals [3]. - The service innovation of the public fund industry is expected to enhance its comprehensive competitiveness [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Review - From May 26 to May 30, 2025, the overall trading in the A - share market became dull, with the average daily trading volume falling to a relatively low level near one trillion yuan, and risk appetite declined [3][11]. - The previous strong Beizheng 50 index continued to lead the gains, but one should be cautious about the sustainability of the excess returns of micro - cap stocks [3][11]. - The net outflows of domestic Hong Kong - related ETFs have occurred in recent weeks, and the net buying strength of southbound funds has also weakened [3]. - The public fund industry is accelerating the optimization of products and services, and many fund companies have opened the conversion business between different shares of the same fund [3][12]. - The performance of major broad - based indexes was differentiated. The Beizheng 50 performed relatively strongly, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 all declined [12]. - The performance of primary industries was also differentiated. The automobile sector had the largest decline, while the top - performing industries included comprehensive finance, national defense and military industry, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and communication [15]. 2. Public Funds 2.1 Public Fund Position Calculation - As of May 30, 2025, the average position of active equity funds was about 85.98%. The average positions of common stock funds, partial - stock hybrid funds, and allocation funds decreased, and the average position of "fixed - income +" funds also decreased [2][20]. 2.2 Style Trends of Active Equity Products - As of May 30, 2025, the exposure of the mid - cap style of active partial - stock funds increased relatively. The positions of large - cap growth and small - cap value increased, while the positions of large - cap value, small - cap growth decreased [3][28]. 2.3 Industry Trends of Active Equity Products - From May 26 to May 30, 2025, the allocation ratios of active equity funds in industries such as food and beverage, machinery, and commercial retail increased, while the ratios in industries such as computer and electronics decreased [3][31]. 2.4 ETF Market Tracking - From May 26 to May 30, 2025, the funds of broad - based ETFs flowed back, exchange - traded credit bond ETFs continued to attract capital, and some medical theme ETFs had obvious profit - taking [33]. - The net inflow of broad - based ETFs was about 6.171 billion yuan, the net outflow of industry ETFs was about 121 million yuan, the net inflow of style and theme ETFs was 1.403 billion yuan, the net outflow of cross - border ETFs was about 2.049 billion yuan, the net inflow of bond ETFs was about 15.106 billion yuan, and the net outflow of commodity ETFs was 106 million yuan [33]. 2.5 Newly Established Funds - From May 26 to May 30, 2025, there were 30 newly established domestic funds, including 4 active equity funds. The total newly issued shares of active equity funds were about 1.735 billion shares, at the 78.4% quantile in the past year [38]. 3. Main/Active Fund Flows - From May 26 to May 30, 2025, the main and active funds had a net inflow into the banking sector and a net outflow from sectors such as electronics, computers, automobiles, and power equipment and new energy [5][51]. - In terms of individual stocks and industries, there were differences in the net inflow and outflow directions of main funds and active funds [5][51].

昨夜，市场已然硝烟弥漫。 美股持续震荡，最后半小时急速跳水，由涨转跌。 这主要是因为川普的减税法案加剧了财政赤字。 川普为了通过这项法案，不仅威胁称不通过此案将是对共和党议程的最终背叛，并且 甚至亲自出面说服党内反对的议员。 然后经过连夜的辩论，在黎明时分，法案以 215：214 的票数结果惊险通过。下一步，该法案将提交到参议院审议。 川普称其 为"一个伟大美丽的法案" ， 价值数万亿美元。 据悉，此法案的篇幅超过1000页，我帮大家梳理了下三点核心内容： 一是延长川普在第一任期内提出的减税条款； 二是对小费、汽车贷款等提供新的税收减免； 三是增加国防支出，并为打击移民提供更多资金。 川普说了，这项法案主要目的就是提振经济。 川普给出的逻辑很简单，给人民减税，大家手里有钱了就会去消费，给企业减税，企业就会扩产。 计划 在未来十年内，此法案能减税超过4万亿美元，并 削减至少1.5万亿美元支出。 川普的所有政策可以总结成一句话十二个字：对外加税、对内减税、放松监管。 问题在于，现在对外加税的效果一般，而减税的另一面就是政府收入减少，这样赤字就会更加严重。 这次在减少开支方面也有新的动作，主要是在削减福利上： 法案 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the A-share market, highlighting the contrasting performance of bank stocks amidst a broader market decline, influenced by external factors such as U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On May 22, A-shares experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96%. The North Star 50 index fell significantly by 6.15% [5]. - The total market turnover was 11,398 billion yuan, a decrease of 747 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 4,400 stocks in the market showing losses [5]. Sector Analysis - Bank stocks showed resilience, with Qingdao Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank leading the gains [5]. - The article notes a significant drop in previously hot sectors such as pet economy and solid-state batteries, while innovative drug concepts remained active, with Sanofi's stock hitting a four-day limit up [5]. - The AI sector saw activity with Kunlun Wanwei's stock also hitting the limit up after the launch of its Skywork Super Agents product [5]. External Influences - The article mentions that the A-share market's decline was influenced by external factors, including significant risks in Japanese and U.S. bonds, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 5.09% and the 10-year yield to 4.60% [2]. - Bitcoin has emerged as a preferred asset for global investors amid uncertainty, reaching a new high of over $110,000, reflecting a 60% increase since Trump's election [3]. Investment Trends - The article highlights that foreign investors are increasingly reluctant to purchase U.S. assets, indicating rising fiscal risks in the U.S. economy [3]. - The article also notes that the Chinese central bank is taking measures to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a planned 500 billion yuan MLF operation [6]. Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds reached 470.82 billion yuan, with the basic chemical industry experiencing the largest outflow [8]. - The banking, defense, media, light manufacturing, and comprehensive sectors saw net inflows, while basic chemicals, power equipment, machinery, computing, and electronics faced net outflows [8].