Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing strong upward momentum, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and economic uncertainty in the U.S. [2] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 17, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 999.80 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 3.82% with a trading volume of 640,615 lots and an open interest of 222,192 lots [1] - The Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 997.29 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 2.51 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - International gold prices have stabilized above $4,200 per ounce, with the main contract for gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closing at 966.42 yuan per gram, up 1.84% [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Expectations - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that if China halts strict rare earth export controls, the U.S. may extend the three-month exemption on tariffs against China, suggesting potential diplomatic engagement [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported little change in U.S. economic activity since early September, with weak labor market demand reinforcing expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have surged, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 94.2% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk - aversion sentiment is fermenting. A - shares are experiencing wide - range fluctuations and increased differentiation. In the short - term, the stock market is expected to be weak, while in the long - term, there is value in bargain - hunting. The bond market is expected to be strong in the short - term [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, and the short - squeeze in silver is still ongoing. The international silver price is expected to reach $60 per ounce [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the evolution of Sino - US trade relations [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a favorable trend due to good fundamentals [8]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term, but the downward space is limited [9][10]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, waiting for macro - factor guidance [11]. - Lead prices are under adjustment pressure due to the weakening of fundamental support [12]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short - term [15][16]. - Lithium prices are cautiously bullish in the short - term [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate strongly [19][20]. - Attention should be paid to the opportunity of correcting the price difference between soda ash and glass [21][22]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [23][24]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides yesterday's trading data of main metal futures, including closing prices, changes, change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. [30] 2. Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: SHFE copper main contract price dropped, LME copper price rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and SHFE copper inventory remained unchanged. The spot premium of SHFE copper remained stable, and the LME copper premium decreased [31]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel main contract price rose, LME nickel price rose. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and LME nickel inventory increased [31]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc main contract price dropped, LME zinc price rose. SHFE zinc warehouse receipts increased, and LME zinc inventory decreased [34]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead main contract price rose, LME lead price rose. SHFE lead warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and LME lead inventory increased [34]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum main contract price rose, LME aluminum price rose. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [34]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina main contract price dropped, and the national average spot price of alumina decreased. SHFE alumina warehouse receipts decreased [34]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin main contract price dropped, LME tin price rose. SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and LME tin inventory remained unchanged [34]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and silver prices rose. There were changes in the price differences between futures and spot prices of gold and silver [34]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore futures had different trends. There were also changes in relevant price differences and shipping rates [36]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures rose. There were changes in price differences and basis [36]. - **Lithium**: The price of lithium carbonate futures rose, and relevant spot prices remained stable [36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon futures rose, and relevant spot prices had different trends [36]. - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: CBOT soybean and bean oil prices rose, and the prices of bean and rapeseed meal futures had different trends. There were also changes in import prices and price differences [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $4,300 per ounce, driven by increased risk aversion amid geopolitical tensions and economic concerns, with a year-to-date increase of over 60% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - International gold prices have reached a historical high, breaking the $4,300 per ounce mark for four consecutive trading days [1] - The gold ETF (518800) has seen a more than 3% increase in the afternoon session, with its scale surpassing 25 billion yuan, and a net inflow of over 2.8 billion yuan for five consecutive days [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts, concerns about the U.S. economy, and a weakening of the dollar's credibility [1] - Increased demand for safe-haven assets is noted due to tensions in U.S.-China trade relations and worries about loan fraud in U.S. regional banks [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to be cautious of short-term price surges and to focus on the long-term investment value of gold [1] - Attention is drawn to the gold ETF (518800), which directly invests in physical gold, and the gold stock ETF (517400), which covers the entire gold industry chain [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will increase. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term fast - in - and - out operations. Dips are considered opportunities for medium - to long - term long - position building. Hold existing long positions with caution. The resistance level for London gold is 4500, and the support level is around 4300. For silver, the resistance is 55, and the support is 50 [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Thursday, precious metal prices continued to rise strongly. The US dollar index, US Treasury yields declined, the US stock market, Bitcoin, and crude oil fell. The silver lease rate rose again, indicating increased risks in the US financial market. The loan fraud and bad debt problems of two US banks triggered a credit crisis and a sell - off, with the US regional bank index in the stock market plummeting nearly 7% during the session. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4344.3 per ounce, up 3.4%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $53.43 per ounce, up 3.99%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 966.42 yuan per gram, up 1.84%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 12017 yuan per kilogram, up 2.93% [2] 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has significantly increased. Although it is still highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points in October. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 3.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 96.3%. By December, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 85%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 14.6%. By January, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 38.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 52.8%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 12.02 tons to 1034.62 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15422.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 48.1 tons to 982.3 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 64.3 tons to 1108.1 tons as of the week ending October 10 [3] 3. This Week's Focus - Due to the US government shutdown, many key data updates have been suspended. The release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, may be postponed to October 24. There will be many speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the FOMC meeting on October 31. On Saturday at 00:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will give a speech [3] 4. Precious Metal Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 966.42 yuan per gram, up 0.63%. SGX gold TD is at 967.29 yuan per gram, up 0.92%. CME gold main contract is at $4344.3 per ounce, up 2.83%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 12017 yuan per kilogram, up 0.43%. SGX silver TD is at 11981 yuan per kilogram, up 0.17%. CME silver main contract is at $53.43 per ounce, up 1.72%. The SHFE - TD gold spread is - 0.87 yuan per gram, down 147.28%. The SHFE - TD silver spread is 36 yuan per kilogram, up 66.67%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 81.3083, up 1.08% [5][6] 5. Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 80961 kilograms, up 7.81%. CME gold inventory is 1217.6426 tons, down 0.35%. SHFE gold position is 225159 lots, down 2.4%. SPDR gold position is 1034.62 tons, up 1.18%. SHFE silver inventory is 982.255 tons, down 4.68%. CME silver inventory is 15930.0729 tons, down 0.11%. SGX silver inventory is 1108.065 tons, down 5.49%. SHFE silver position is 468355 lots, down 1.98%. SLV silver position is 15422.606288 tons, unchanged [11] 6. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 98.3445, down 0.35%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.1279, down 0.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 45952.24 points, down 0.65%. WTI crude oil spot is at $57.46 per barrel, down 1.39%. LmeS copper 03 is at $10620 per ton, up 0.42%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 3.99%, down 1.48%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is 1.71%, down 2.84%. The 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread is 0.58%, up 5.45% [17]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) is experiencing a downward trend, currently at 0.6469, with a decline of 0.23% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate surged to 4.5% in September, the highest in four years and exceeding the market expectation of 4.3%, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia on November 4 [1] - The rise in unemployment has led to a decrease in the three-year government bond yield, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Technically, the AUD/USD exchange rate has slightly recovered from a seven-week low of 0.6441, but the overall trend remains weak, with resistance levels at 0.6515 and 0.6523 [2] - A long-legged doji candlestick pattern has formed, providing a brief respite for bulls, yet the price remains constrained by the 10-day, 21-day, and 55-day moving averages [2] - The monthly relative strength index continues to show weakness, indicating that the overall downward pressure on the AUD is still in place, requiring a breakthrough of moving average resistance for upward movement [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Gold: Due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations, gold prices continued to reach new highs. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, with the Shanghai gold premium slightly converging to -3.5 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment significantly rising [4]. - Silver: Affected by tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations, silver prices also reached new highs. Although the increase in silver prices was not significantly enlarged, the upward trend remained unchanged, and the Shanghai silver premium converged to -125 yuan/gram, with domestic silver price sentiment stable [5]. - Logic: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices were difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly followed gold prices. Tariff concerns had a stronger impact on silver prices, increasing the risk of a larger increase in silver prices [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US stocks fell, European stocks rose, US bond yields declined (10 - year US bond yield fell 5.94 basis points to 3.973%), the US dollar index dropped 0.31% to 98.36, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly. COMEX gold futures rose 3.40% to $4344.3 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, COMEX silver futures rose 3.99% to $53.43 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was -1.82, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures (neutral). Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 5862 kilograms to 80961 kilograms (bearish). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased (bullish) [4]. - Silver: The basis was -27, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures (neutral). Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 48174 kilograms to 982255 kilograms (neutral). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position was long, and the main long position increased (bullish) [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Events: Speech by Japanese central bank deputy governor Uchida Masakazu at 14:35; speech by RBA deputy governor Hauser at 15:15; release of Eurozone September CPI final value at 17:00; speech by Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill at 17:35; possible release of US September new home starts and other data at 20:30; speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member and German central bank president Nagel and German finance minister Kingbeil at 20:45; release of Italian central bank quarterly economic report at 21:00; speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene at 00:00 the next day; speech by St. Louis Fed President Musalem at 00:15 the next day; speech by Bank of England deputy governor Breeden at 00:30 the next day; speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn at 01:00 the next day; release of US August international capital flow at 04:00 the next day [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis was -1.82, and the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 5862 kilograms to 80961 kilograms [4]. - Silver: The basis was -27, and the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 48174 kilograms to 982255 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The main net position was long, and the main long position increased [5].

Group 1 - Gold prices reached a new high of $4361.62 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including escalating trade tensions and a government shutdown in the U.S. [1] - The price of gold has increased by over 60% this year, influenced by geopolitical tensions, expectations of aggressive rate cuts, and significant inflows into gold ETFs [3] - HSBC raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3355 per ounce, citing geopolitical risks and economic instability as key drivers of safe-haven demand [3] Group 2 - The current bullish trend in gold is characterized by strong upward momentum, with technical indicators showing a golden cross pattern, suggesting continued strength [4] - The market anticipates a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, further supporting gold's appeal in a low-interest-rate environment [3] - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to reduce economic output by up to $15 billion per week, contributing to increased investor anxiety and demand for gold [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Financial Futures - The domestic economy is in the process of repair, with potential for incremental policies to promote price stability. The recent intensification of Sino-US trade friction is likely a game between the two sides, and short - term expectations for trade talks should not be too high [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, with the TACO trade having short - term stability but long - term concerns [1]. - The stock index is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with the short - term trend difficult to capture. It is advisable to try cross - variety arbitrage in index futures. The relative advantage of large - cap indexes may continue [2]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with limited upward and downward space. It is recommended to hold long positions in small amounts and wait for price drops to build positions [3]. - The shipping index (European line) futures are likely to continue to fluctuate, with a strategy of waiting and short - term operations. There are still low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and silver prices are rising strongly, with medium - to - long - term bullish trends but increased short - term volatility. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [9][10]. - The copper price is suppressed by demand but may rebound due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts. A "sell put + buy futures" combination strategy can be tried [11]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy to be volatile and bullish [12]. - Zinc is expected to be in a state of uncertainty, mainly in a volatile state [13]. - Nickel and stainless steel have a weakening downward drive, with short - term volatility. Nickel ore quotas in 2026 are expected to decline, and stainless steel exports have positive factors [15]. - Tin is still bullish in the long - term, with a stable mid - to - short - term wave - like upward trend. High - selling and low - buying strategies can be adopted [16]. - Carbonate lithium has strong demand, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is decreasing. It is expected to form a phased support for futures prices [17]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon have weak fundamentals. Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly in the future, while polysilicon is affected by news disturbances [18][19]. - Lead is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upside [20]. Black Metals - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, the market sentiment has slightly improved, but the downward trend may not be over. The rebound power of the futures market is limited [22]. - Iron ore has been under pressure recently, affected by the decline in market risk appetite and the rise in coking coal prices. Short - term short positions can consider taking profits at the right time [23]. - Coking coal and coke are in a state of upward rebound but face negative feedback risks. Unilateral trading should adopt a volatile strategy [24]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are affected by coking coal. They are in a state of high supply and weak demand, and are expected to oscillate at the bottom [25]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are falling due to increased避险 sentiment. The market is affected by the game between macro - sentiment and supply - demand, and is likely to continue to adjust in the short term [27]. - PTA - PX prices follow the cost side. The supply of PX is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, and PTA is in a state of relative surplus. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and try to expand the processing margin [29][31]. - MEG - bottle chips are mainly affected by macro - impacts. The long - term inventory build - up expectation makes it difficult to change its short - position status. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and consider selling put options [33]. - Methanol is affected by macro - trading. After the holiday, it is still in a weak state, and it is advisable to buy a small amount of bottom positions at low prices [34]. - PP is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, following the decline of the cost side. It is recommended to wait and see on the unilateral side [36]. - PE is in a weak pattern, with supply increasing and demand growing slowly. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [39]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a phase of post - decline consolidation. Pure benzene has a difficult - to - rise and easy - to - fall situation, and styrene supply is tightening. Unilateral trading should wait and see [41]. - Fuel oil is recommended to focus on shorting the cracking spread, considering the supply and demand situation [42]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak rebound, with limited upward drive [42]. - Asphalt has no super - expected performance in the peak season. Short - term external disturbances are increasing, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. - Rubber and 20 - day rubber have differentiated trends. In the short term, they are under pressure from supply and inventory. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [44][45]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda have upstream inventory build - up. Soda ash has long - term supply pressure, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda has uncertain short - term trends and long - term production pressure [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products - For live pigs, with high supply, it is advisable to short at high prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the game between farmers' sentiment and prices, and long - term attention to capacity - reduction policies [50]. - In the oilseed market, the domestic market is weakening, and the external market is in a narrow - range bottom oscillation. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and supply - demand changes [51]. - For edible oils, palm oil may have limited downside, and it is advisable to buy on dips after a pullback. Soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil's inventory may slowly decline [53]. - For soybeans, the 11 - contract should adjust short - positions according to spot sales, and new low - cost inventory can consider hedging in the 01 - contract [53]. - Corn and starch are in a weak state, with the corn starch market oscillating [53]. - Cotton has new cotton picking over half - way. The market is affected by the US government shutdown and consumption concerns [54]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes Sino - US trade talks, US bank credit issues, Fed interest - rate cut disagreements, and the US government shutdown [1]. - The core logic is that the domestic economy needs to focus on consumer demand, with potential for incremental policies. Sino - US trade friction is a new market focus, and the short - term outlook for trade talks is uncertain [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. The main influencing factors are Sino - US trade talks and US government policies [1]. - The core logic is that the impact of this trade friction on the exchange rate is limited, and the RMB is expected to remain stable [1]. Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of the stock index, with large - cap indexes rising and small - cap indexes falling. Trading volume decreased, indicating strong wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - The core view is that short - term trends are difficult to capture, and cross - variety arbitrage in index futures can be tried. The relative advantage of large - cap indexes may continue [2]. Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a volatile bond market, with some varieties rising and some falling. Trading volume decreased significantly [3]. - The core view is that the bond market lacks momentum, with limited upward and downward space. It is advisable to hold long positions in small amounts and wait for price drops to build positions [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The previous trading day saw the shipping index futures price first decline and then oscillate at a low level [4]. - The core view is that the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate, with a strategy of waiting and short - term operations. There are still low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals Gold & Silver - The previous trading day saw a strong rise in precious metals prices, with a decline in the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and other related assets. This reflects increased financial market risks in the US [7]. - The core view is that gold and silver prices are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term but volatile in the short - term. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [9]. Copper - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of copper prices in different markets. The supply side has some maintenance situations, and the demand side suppresses price increases [10][11]. - The core view is that the expectation of interest rate cuts may drive copper prices to rebound. It is advisable to try a "sell put + buy futures" combination strategy [11]. Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day saw different trends in aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices, while alumina is in a state of oversupply [11][12]. - The core view is that aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy to be volatile and bullish [12]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw zinc prices oscillating in a narrow range. The supply side is relatively stable domestically and has some production cuts overseas. Low inventory provides support [12][13]. - The core view is that the direction of zinc prices is unclear, and it is mainly in a volatile state [13]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The previous trading day saw a slight rise in nickel and stainless - steel prices. The macro - environment has expectations of interest rate cuts and some easing of Sino - US tariffs. The supply and demand of nickel ore and stainless steel have different trends [14][15]. - The core view is that the downward drive of nickel and stainless steel is weakening, with short - term volatility. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [15]. Tin - The previous trading day saw tin prices opening low and then rising. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is still bullish [16]. - The core view is that it is advisable to hold long positions for those already in the market and continue to observe for those not yet in [16]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day saw an increase in carbonate lithium futures prices. The market demand is strong, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is decreasing [16]. - The core view is that it is expected to form a phased support for futures prices [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw different trends in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices. The supply and demand of the industrial silicon industry chain are general, and the polysilicon market is affected by news [17][18]. - The core view is that industrial silicon prices may rise slightly in the future, while polysilicon is affected by news disturbances [18][19]. Lead - The previous trading day saw lead prices oscillating in a narrow range. The supply side is affected by silver prices and raw - material restrictions, and the demand side has some export potential. Inventory may increase in the short term [19][20]. - The core view is that the upside of lead prices is limited [20]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a rebound in rebar with reduced positions, and hot - rolled coils performed weaker. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the de - stocking speed is slower than in previous years [22]. - The core view is that the market sentiment has slightly improved, but the downward trend may not be over. The rebound power of the futures market is limited [22]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a continuous decline in iron ore prices. The increase in coking coal prices has squeezed iron ore prices, and the inventory has increased [23]. - The core view is that iron ore is under short - term pressure, and it is advisable to take profits on short positions at the right time [23]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke prices oscillating strongly. The coking coal market is facing a situation of tight supply and potential negative feedback risks [23][24]. - The core view is that the rebound height and sustainability of coking coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products. It is advisable to adopt a volatile strategy on the unilateral side [24]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The previous trading day saw an increase in ferroalloy prices affected by coking coal. The industry is facing a contradiction between high supply and weak demand [25]. - The core view is that there is no obvious upward drive in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [25]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw a decline in crude oil prices. The market is affected by the game between macro - sentiment and supply - demand, with increased避险 sentiment [27]. - The core view is that the market is likely to continue to adjust in the short term, and the downward risk is the focus [27]. PTA - PX - The supply of PX is expected to increase in October, with a tight - balance or slight inventory - build - up situation. PTA supply has some changes, and demand is seasonally strong but not as good as in previous years [29][30]. - The core view is that PTA - PX prices follow the cost side. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and try to expand the processing margin [31]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The inventory of MEG in East China ports has increased. The supply side has changes in various devices, and demand is in a state of seasonal improvement but not strong [31][32]. - The core view is that it is mainly affected by macro - impacts. The long - term inventory build - up expectation makes it difficult to change its short - position status. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and consider selling put options [33]. Methanol - The previous trading day saw methanol prices at a certain level. The inventory of methanol ports has increased after the holiday, and it is affected by Iranian shipments and Sino - US trade [33]. - The core view is that after the holiday, it is still in a weak state, and it is advisable to buy a small amount of bottom positions at low prices [34]. PP - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in PP prices. The supply side is expected to increase due to improved profits, while the demand side is "off - peak" [35][36]. - The core view is that PP is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, following the decline of the cost side. It is recommended to wait and see on the unilateral side [36]. PE - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in PE prices. The supply side is expected to increase due to device restarts and potential imports, while the demand side is slow to recover [38][39]. - The core view is that PE is in a weak pattern, with supply increasing and demand growing slowly. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [39]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The previous trading day saw an increase in pure benzene and styrene prices. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and styrene supply is tightening [40][41]. - The core view is that they are in a phase of post - decline consolidation. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [41]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil prices at a certain level. The supply of fuel oil is tightening, and the demand is in a state of change. Inventory in some areas has decreased [42]. - The core view is that it is recommended to focus on shorting the cracking spread [42]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw low - sulfur fuel oil prices at a certain level. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. Inventory in some areas has decreased [42]. - The core view is that it has a weak rebound, with limited upward drive [42]. Asphalt - The previous trading day saw asphalt prices at a certain level. The supply of asphalt is relatively stable, and the demand is affected by the holiday and weather. Inventory has changed in structure [43]. - The core view is that the peak season has no super - expected performance. Short - term external disturbances are increasing, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. Rubber and 20 - Day Rubber - The previous trading day saw a differentiation in rubber prices, with 20 - day rubber rebounding. The macro - environment and supply - demand have certain pressures, but the price of 20 - day rubber delivery products is firm [43]. - The core view is that in the short term, there is pressure from supply and inventory. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [44][45]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash inventory has increased, with long - term supply pressure. Glass inventory is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda has uncertain short - term trends and long - term production pressure [46][47][48]. - The core view is that soda ash is affected by supply pressure, glass is restricted by inventory and demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products

根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前预计美联储10月降息25个基点的概率高达98%，而12月再度降息的预期已完全被计价。这意味着，美联储可能在年内 重启双降息节奏，从而进一步压低实际利率水平。 在利率下行的环境中，黄金这一"无收益资产"的机会成本显著下降。再加上美元指数在本周下滑，避险资金自然流入金市。City Index与FOREX.com的市 场分析师Fawad Razaqzada指出："黄金的涨势非常猛烈，看起来完全不打算停下来……随着贸易紧张局势再度升温，投资者有更多理由通过黄金来对冲股 市的多头风险。" 国际金价再度改写历史，现货黄金突破每盎司4300美元关口，年内累计涨幅超过60%，自2024年初以来的涨幅翻倍。美股三大指数齐跌，美元指数跌 0.3%，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数VIX收于25.31，创4月24日以来最高收盘水平。 现货黄金收涨2.85%，盘中最高触及4330美元/盎司；12月交割的COMEX黄金期货收涨3.4%，报4344.3美元/盎司。黄金的带动下，白银走强，值得 注意的是，金油比、金铜比失衡，原油走弱，伦铜微跌。 黄金这一走势不仅点燃了全球市场的避险情绪，也再次让黄金的投 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold (XAU/USD) reached a historical high of $4240 before stabilizing above $4200, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and the U.S. fiscal deadlock, leading investors to increase their positions in safe-haven assets [1] - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, diminishing the dollar's yield advantage and providing ongoing support for gold [1] - The dollar index (DXY) fell to around 98.50, marking a one-week low, as market bets on further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve reached a probability of 94.6% for a total of 50 basis points this year [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, with the Treasury estimating weekly economic losses of approximately $15 billion, impacting economic activity [2] - Market sentiment is fluctuating between "rate cut expectations" and "safe-haven demand," with funds flowing into precious metals and European currencies as the dollar remains under pressure [2] - The upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown will be critical in determining the timing of any potential dollar rebound [2]