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市场情绪回暖,钢矿震荡企稳:钢材&铁矿石日报-20251110
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 11:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.26%, volume increased and positions decreased. Currently, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is that the cost still provides support. In the short - term, the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coils oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.06%, volume and positions decreased. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot - rolled coils remain unresolved, inventory has accumulated again, and prices continue to be under pressure. The cost side still provides support. In the short - term, the trend will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decrease of 0.07%, volume and positions decreased. Currently, market sentiment has warmed up, and ore prices have stabilized in oscillation. However, the demand for ore is declining, and the supply pressure has not been alleviated. The fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that ore prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Pay attention to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In October 2025, 822 projects started across the country, with a total investment of about 494.812 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Fujian, Guangxi, and Guangdong, with total investments of 136.944 billion yuan, 82.1 billion yuan, and 71.7 billion yuan respectively [7]. - As of November 10, 18 car companies announced their production and sales data for October. SAIC Group ranked first in production with 466,300 vehicles, and BYD ranked second with 429,800 vehicles. In terms of month - on - month growth, 11 car companies' sales increased, with BAIC BluePark having the largest increase of 48.70%. In terms of year - on - year growth, 14 car companies' sales increased. Qianli Technology had the highest increase of 97.97%, followed by BAIC BluePark with 72.69%, and Ankai Bus with 65.99% [8]. - Vice - Premier Liu Guozhong will visit Guinea and Sierra Leone from November 10 to 16 and attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project as a special representative of President Xi Jinping on November 11 [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160, 3,200, and 3,223 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and - 2. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270, 3,190, and 3,307 respectively, with changes of 10, 0, and - 3. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 with a change of - 10, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 with a change of - 20. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 110 with a change of 10, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 with a change of 20 [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 775 with a change of 4, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 798 with a change of - 5. The sea freight from Australia was 10.45 with a change of 0.24, and from Brazil was 23.53 with a change of 0.16. The SGX swap price (current month) was 102.59 with a change of - 2.22, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 102.05 with a change of - 2.65 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,044, with a change of 0.26%, the highest price was 3,050, the lowest price was 3,022, the trading volume was 1,049,513 with a volume difference of 248,567, and the open interest was 1,923,733 with a position difference of - 37,153 [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,252, with a change of 0.06%, the highest price was 3,256, the lowest price was 3,231, the trading volume was 375,365 with a volume difference of - 19,759, and the open interest was 1,346,071 with a position difference of - 19,517 [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 765.0, with a change of - 0.07%, the highest price was 767.0, the lowest price was 756.0, the trading volume was 327,443 with a volume difference of - 103,913, and the open interest was 541,602 with a position difference of - 17,806 [12]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, etc.), and steel mill production situations (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [14][19][27] Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 40,500 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 136,600 tons. The fundamentals have not improved, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The cost still provides support. In the short - term, the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 54,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 175,900 tons. The industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory has accumulated again, and prices continue to be under pressure. The cost side still provides support. In the short - term, the trend will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [36]. - For iron ore, the weak supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and inventory has increased significantly. Ore demand continues to decline, and the supply pressure has not been alleviated. Market sentiment has warmed up, and ore prices have stabilized in oscillation, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that ore prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Pay attention to the performance of steel products [37].
大越期货钢矿周报-20251110
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel and ore prices weakened. After the macro - impact subsided, the market focus returned to fundamentals. The lack of improvement in terminal consumption directly hit the black - metal industry chain. Both steel products showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand continued to decline, which dampened market confidence. Notably, iron ore weakened significantly this week. The negative feedback from the weak terminal demand was finally transmitted to iron ore, with a large accumulation of port inventories and a significant drop in molten iron production, resulting in iron ore performing weaker than steel products. Looking ahead, given the unfavorable domestic policies and external export conditions, terminal demand is unlikely to improve. The report maintains the view that the pattern of the off - peak season during the peak period for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore market will remain weak [57] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price decreased from 803 yuan/wet ton to 773 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 30 yuan; Ba Hun powder price decreased from 840 yuan/wet ton to 814 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 26 yuan. PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 15.51 yuan/wet ton to - 9.32 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 6.19 yuan; Ba Hun powder spot landing profit increased from 8.41 yuan/wet ton to 19.75 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 11.34 yuan. Australia's shipments to China decreased from 1625.3 tons to 1544.8 tons, a decrease of 80.5 tons; Brazil's shipments decreased from 925.1 tons to 856 tons, a decrease of 69.1 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 15272.93 tons to 15624.13 tons, an increase of 351.2 tons; imported iron ore arrival volume increased from 2084.3 tons to 3314.1 tons, an increase of 1229.8 tons; imported iron ore port clearance volume increased from 331.22 tons to 335.55 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons. Iron ore port daily trading volume increased from 79.6 tons to 125.8 tons, an increase of 46.2 tons; daily molten iron production decreased from 236.36 tons to 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons; steel enterprise profitability rate decreased from 45.02% to 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19 percentage points [6] 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3230 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton, a drop of 40 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased from 3330 yuan/ton to 3260 yuan/ton, a drop of 70 yuan. Blast furnace operating rate increased from 81.75% to 83.13%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points; electric furnace operating rate decreased from 68.83% to 67.03%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points. Rebar blast furnace profit increased from - 57 yuan/ton to - 39 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan; hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from - 114 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan; rebar electric furnace profit decreased from - 139 yuan/ton to - 164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. Weekly rebar production decreased from 212.59 tons to 208.54 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil production decreased from 323.56 tons to 318.16 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons. Weekly rebar social inventory decreased from 430.81 tons to 425.7 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons; weekly rebar enterprise inventory decreased from 171.71 tons to 166.84 tons, a decrease of 4.87 tons. Weekly hot - rolled coil social inventory increased from 328.93 tons to 333.02 tons, an increase of 4.09 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil enterprise inventory decreased from 77.66 tons to 77.43 tons, a decrease of 0.23 tons. Weekly rebar apparent consumption decreased from 232.19 tons to 218.52 tons, a decrease of 13.67 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil apparent consumption decreased from 331.89 tons to 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.59 tons. Building materials trading volume decreased from 89930 tons to 87098 tons, a decrease of 2832 tons [29][31] 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: Blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates are presented, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing and the electric furnace operating rate decreasing this week [29] - **Production Volumes**: The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coils in Chinese steel enterprises shows a decreasing trend [29] - **Profits**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces increased, while the profit of rebar in electric furnaces decreased [29] - **Inventories**: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, while the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased and the enterprise inventory decreased [31] - **Apparent Consumption**: The weekly apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [31] - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building materials decreased [31] - **Export Volumes**: The monthly export volume of steel products in China is presented [53] - **Real Estate Indicators**: The report shows the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, etc. [54][55] - **Manufacturing PMI**: The monthly value of the manufacturing PMI in China is presented [56]
钢矿周报(10.27-10.31)-20251103
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 05:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets strengthened this week due to positive market sentiment driven by the release of China's 14th Five - Year Plan and the potential easing of Sino - US trade conflicts. However, as these macro - level positive factors are realized, the market sentiment will cool down, and the trading logic will return to the industrial fundamentals. Fundamentally, the steel and ore markets remain weak, mainly because the terminal demand shows no sign of improvement. The rebound in the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils this week may not be sustainable, and the decline in steel mill profits will also suppress the demand for iron ore. The pattern of weak peak seasons for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore markets are likely to maintain a weak outlook [60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price increased from 778 yuan/wet ton to 803 yuan/wet ton, and the price of Brazilian mixed powder rose from 815 yuan/wet ton to 840 yuan/wet ton. The spot landing profit of PB powder improved from - 24.26 yuan/wet ton to - 15.51 yuan/wet ton, and that of Brazilian mixed powder increased from - 1.59 yuan/wet ton to 8.41 yuan/wet ton. Australia's shipments to China decreased by 34.9 tons to 1625.3 tons, while Brazil's shipments increased by 100.8 tons to 925.1 tons. The port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 163.44 tons to 15272.93 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 592 tons to 2084.3 tons. The port clearance volume increased by 9.15 tons to 331.22 tons. The daily port trading volume of iron ore decreased by 0.6 tons to 79.6 tons. The average daily hot - metal production decreased by 3.54 tons to 236.36 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02% [6]. 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: The price of Shanghai rebar increased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils rose from 3290 yuan/ton to 3330 yuan/ton. The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points to 81.75%, while the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 0.97 percentage points to 68.83%. The blast - furnace profit of rebar improved from - 60 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils decreased from - 59 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton. The electric - furnace profit of rebar increased from - 154 yuan/ton to - 139 yuan/ton. The weekly production of rebar increased by 5.52 tons to 212.59 tons, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.11 tons to 323.56 tons. The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 6.67 tons to 430.81 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory decreased by 12.92 tons to 171.71 tons. The weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.64 tons to 328.93 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.31 tons to 77.66 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 6.18 tons to 232.19 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.16 tons to 331.89 tons. The trading volume of building materials decreased by 1157 tons to 89930 tons [29][31]. 3.3 Supply - and - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased. - **Production Volumes**: The production volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased. - **Profits**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, with the profit of rebar improving and that of hot - rolled coils declining. - **Inventories**: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building materials decreased [29][31].
产业矛盾累积,钢矿震荡调整
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 10:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.03%. Demand improved but its sustainability is questionable, while supply pressure is increasing. Inventory continues to rise and the increase is expanding. Steel prices in the off - season are under pressure. With the dual influence of production restriction expectations and strong coking coal, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price declined with a daily decrease of 0.35%. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continue to weaken, and inventory increases. Although there are continuous production restriction disturbances, the price is expected to continue to run in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily decrease of 0.25%. Ore demand has good resilience, supporting high - level operation of ore prices. However, ore supply is recovering, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation and consolidation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - China's total goods trade import and export value in the first 7 months of 2025 was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, up 7.3%, and imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, down 1.6%. In July, the total import and export value was 3.91 trillion yuan, up 6.7% [6]. - Shanghai will launch the overall renovation project of urban villages in 2026, and complete the renovation of small - beam and thin - plate houses in 2027. It will also continue to carry out the renovation of old residential areas [7]. - In July 2025, China exported 983600 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative steel export was 6.7983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China imported 45200 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the cumulative steel import was 347600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and some other products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the national average price of rebar decreased by 2 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | 3231 | 0.03 | 1648650 | 1628167 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3440 | - 0.35 | 640048 | 1428587 | | Iron ore | 793.0 | - 0.25 | 199704 | 335365 | [11] Related Charts - Include charts of steel and iron ore inventory, steel mill production status, etc., such as steel inventory, iron ore inventory in 45 ports, 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operation rate and capacity utilization rate, etc. [13][18][27] 后市研判 - **Rebar**: Supply pressure increases, demand improvement lacks sustainability, inventory rises, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [36]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both weak, inventory increases, and prices are under pressure. However, due to production restriction disturbances, prices are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [35]. - **Iron ore**: Demand has resilience, but supply is increasing, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Ore prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [37].
煤炭强势提振市场,钢矿延续震荡上行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 11:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated upward with a daily increase of 1.38%, and the volume and open interest contracted. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices are under pressure. However, due to the low inventory pattern, industrial contradictions are not significant, and the downward space is limited. It is expected that steel prices will continue the weak and volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil continued to rise, with a daily increase of 1.89%, and the volume and open interest expanded. At present, although the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil have weakened in the situation of increasing supply and demand, production restriction disturbances are constantly fermenting, and the actual contradictions are not significant. The price of hot - rolled coil continues to run strongly, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated higher, with a daily increase of 1.20%, and the volume and open interest contracted. At present, the demand for iron ore has good resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices. However, the supply of iron ore is increasing, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Under the game of multiple and short factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue the high - level shock consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In the first half of the year, the retail sales of household appliances such as refrigerators increased by 56.6% year - on - year. Driven by large - scale equipment renewal policies and consumer goods trade - in policies, the procurement of mechanical equipment by enterprises and the retail sales of various consumer goods have increased to varying degrees [6]. - According to the Mysteel weekly report, the new - home sales in 10 major cities decreased by 17.7% year - on - year. From July 28th to August 3rd, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities increased by 3.8% month - on - month but decreased by 17.7% year - on - year, while the transaction area of second - hand housing decreased by 6.5% month - on - month but increased by 4.7% year - on - year. There were differences in the transaction area changes among different cities [7]. - Australian steel company BlueScope led an international consortium to bid for the Whyalla Steelworks. The consortium includes Japanese, Indian, and South Korean steel companies. The Whyalla Steelworks has an annual design capacity of about 1.2 million tons of crude steel, with an actual annual output of less than 1 million tons in recent years and a blast furnace operating rate of about 70% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are provided, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight rates, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index, along with their price changes [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore in the futures market are presented [13]. Related Charts - The report includes charts related to steel inventory (rebar and hot - rolled coil), iron ore inventory (ports, mines, and steel mills), and steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization, profitability, etc.) [15][20][29] 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. Production is weakly stable at a low level, and demand has declined again. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are weak, but the low inventory limits the downward space. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand have changed. Supply has increased after the resumption of production by plate mills, and demand has shown resilience. Although the fundamentals have weakened, due to production restriction disturbances and limited contradictions, prices continue to run strongly. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has weakened. Ore consumption has declined, but the good profitability of steel mills ensures demand resilience. The supply of iron ore is increasing steadily. Under the game of multiple and short factors, it is expected to continue the high - level shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [38].
预期现实博弈,钢矿震荡运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 14:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.19%. The supply - demand pattern is stable, with pre - holiday demand surging and weekly apparent demand increasing significantly. However, the improvement may not be sustainable, and supply remains high. The steel price is under pressure, but macro - level positive factors have been realized. The price is expected to continue low - level oscillatory movement, and demand changes should be monitored [4][37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.34%. Current demand is acceptable, supporting a stable supply - demand pattern. But supply is high, and demand is expected to weaken. The price is under pressure, and with overseas risks and the expectation of reduction policies, it is expected to maintain low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [4][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore had a wide - range oscillation with a daily increase of 0.35%. Strong demand supports the ore price, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved due to high supply and concerns about demand peaking. The price is under pressure, but with improved market sentiment, the downward drive is weak. It is expected to continue low - level oscillation, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [4][39]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Central bank's measures for the real estate market**: The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market. It also lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points [6]. - **New contract signing plans of nine major construction central enterprises**: In 2024, they completed a total of 16.59 trillion yuan in new contract signings, and the plan for 2025 is 17.06 trillion yuan. The 2024 revenue was 7.11 trillion yuan, and the 2025 plan is 7.28 trillion yuan [7]. - **Australia's anti - dumping sunset review investigation**: Australia launched a second anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese steel bars with a diameter of 50 mm or less on May 5, 2025 [8]. Spot Market - **Black metal spot quotes**: The report provides spot prices and price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, billet, scrap, iron ore powder, and related indices [9]. Futures Market - **Futures prices of main contracts**: It shows the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures contracts [11]. Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Includes charts of rebar inventory (weekly changes and total inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly changes, total inventory), and related historical data [14][16][24]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Covers charts of national 45 - port iron ore inventory (including inventory changes and seasonal data), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory [21][22][25]. - **Steel mill production**: Presents charts of 247 - steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation [31][33][35]. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply is at a high level, and although pre - holiday demand increased, its sustainability is uncertain. With macro - level positives, the price will continue low - level oscillation, and demand changes should be watched [37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both rising, but demand is expected to weaken. With overseas risks and reduction policy expectations, the price will maintain low - level oscillation, and steel mill production should be focused on [38]. - **Iron ore**: Demand is strong, but supply is also high, and there are concerns about demand peaking. With improved market sentiment, the price will continue low - level oscillation, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [39].