有人的地方就有江湖，有金钱的地方就有喜忧。 最近贵金属的价格像过山车一样跌宕起伏，相信关注的朋友都深有体会。 25年下半年截至到新年1月29日前，黄金都是一路高歌，屡次刷新记录， 然而1月30日进入黑色星期五，现货黄金单日暴跌9.25%，创1983年以来最大跌幅，盘中一度崩跌12.92%，从前期高位5627美元/盎司砸到4682美元； 现货白银更狠，从122美元的高点腰斩式触及74.28美元/盎司。 全球贵金属市场一夜蒸发超3.4万亿美元，相当于整个加密货币市场的总市值。 22万投资者爆仓，总金额超9亿美元，有人一夜之间本金归零，有人毕生积蓄打了水漂。 无独有偶，曾经辉煌的房地产也是在泡沫破裂后黯然退场，无数人血本无归。 于是不少人开始追问：以后的黄金，会成为以前的房子吗？ 二者虽有表面的相似性，更有本质的差异，而这些差异恰恰决定了黄金难以复刻房产曾经的投资路径。 黄金与房子的相似之处，集中在"保值"与"周期"的表象上。 抛开市场的大起大落不谈，我们先来看看黄金和房产的定位。 黄金作为金融与避险资产，其价值基础是全球信用和避险需求。 目前，全球央行购金（"再货币化"）、地缘政治风险是主要驱动力。 房子是居住与 ...

2025年12月26日周五下午，黄金价格突然下跌，现货金价从5500多美元一路下滑，单日最多跌了12%，最后停在4865美元一盎司，这是1980年以来最大的单 日跌幅，白银跌得更厉害，跌了26%以上，盘中一度闪崩36%，掉到85美元附近，很多投资者刚追高买进，还没反应过来，账户就变绿了。 到了周一，A股市场重新开市，国内黄金ETF和期货直接跌停，投资者没法卖出，只能眼睁睁看着，很多散户是因为看到短视频里宣传的"黄金百倍神话"才 进场，结果还没等到翻倍就被套住了，有人计算过，12月初金价涨到5200美元时入场的人，一周内就亏了接近20%，这哪里是避险，简直是在送钱。 从技术角度分析，5500美元附近堆积了太多杠杆做多的仓位，一旦下跌就容易触发强制平仓，程序化交易跟着卖出，就像推倒了第一块多米诺骨牌，价格越 跌越快。在制度方面，现实情况是黄金的定价权掌握在各国央行和大型资本手中，普通投资者往往成为最终承担风险的一方。马光远曾提出一个"债务置 换"模型，认为金价大幅上涨的本质，其实是政府通过这种方式将债务转化为资产，最终把风险转移给了黄金持有者。 心理上，很多人把避险当成保值，其实避险是危机时能快速换钱，保值是长时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around gold investment has intensified, with physical gold transactions and gold ETFs gaining market attention, but recent price corrections raise questions about gold's ability to preserve value [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Performance of Gold - Gold is traditionally viewed as a "safe-haven asset," but historical data shows significant price volatility, with potential for substantial losses during bear markets [1][4]. - From 2000 to present, gold has delivered an annualized return of approximately 11%, but it has also experienced prolonged bear markets lasting over a decade [1]. - Major bear markets since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system include a notable 66% decline from early 1980 to mid-1985, with other bear markets showing declines of 45%-49% [1][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The factors driving gold prices are complex and vary across different market cycles, with each bull and bear market influenced by unique economic conditions [3]. - Historical data indicates that gold prices can rise significantly during periods of economic instability and high inflation, while they tend to decline during economic recoveries and strengthening currencies [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Risk Awareness - Investors are encouraged to educate themselves about gold's attributes, recognizing its roles as a currency, investment, and commodity, and its low correlation with stocks and bonds [4]. - Acknowledging the risks associated with gold investment is crucial, as price fluctuations can be severe, and losses are possible, contradicting the notion of gold being a "100% safe" asset [4]. - Investment in gold should be based on individual financial situations, risk tolerance, and investment horizons, promoting rational investment and scientific allocation [4].

Core Viewpoint - The rising popularity of "pain gold" jewelry, which features designs inspired by anime and other pop culture elements, is driven by young consumers' willingness to pay for emotional value, but there are concerns about its long-term value retention as market hype may fade [1][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - "Pain gold" products are becoming the main attraction in gold stores, replacing traditional items like bracelets and charms [2]. - Major brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Miao, and Chao Hong Ji are actively promoting "pain gold" items, with a significant portion of their displays dedicated to these collaborations [2][4]. - The emotional connection to characters from popular series like "Tian Guan Ci Fu" is a key driver for purchases, with consumers willing to spend large amounts on these items [4][5]. Group 2: Pricing and Valuation - "Pain gold" products are typically sold at fixed prices, often significantly higher than traditional gold pricing, with examples including a Chow Tai Fook Stitch bracelet priced at 5340 yuan and a Lao Miao "Tian Guan Ci Fu" bracelet at 1520 yuan [5][6]. - The pricing strategy often obscures the actual gold weight, leading to high premiums; for instance, a gold note weighing only 0.2 grams is priced at 520 yuan, equating to 2600 yuan per gram [6][10]. - The premium pricing is justified by sellers citing the complexity of production and the costs associated with IP licensing [8]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Risks - Consumers face significant depreciation when attempting to resell "pain gold" items, with buyback offers often being a fraction of the original price [10][11]. - The marketing of "pain gold" emphasizes emotional and investment value, but there are concerns about transparency regarding actual gold weight and resale conditions [12]. - Many consumers report feeling misled about the value retention of these products, leading to dissatisfaction when they attempt to sell them [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the value retention of real estate versus gold over the past decade, highlighting the recent decline in real estate prices and the rise in gold prices, suggesting a shift in asset allocation preferences among ordinary investors. Real Estate Price Trends - From 2011 to 2015, real estate prices in 70 major cities in China experienced a stable fluctuation, with limited significant changes in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [1][2] - The period from 2015 to 2017 marked a rapid increase in real estate prices, with Shenzhen's average price soaring from 22,198 yuan/m² in 2014 to 51,935 yuan/m² in 2016 [3] - Between 2017 and 2019, government policies such as purchase and loan restrictions were implemented to stabilize the market, leading to a gradual narrowing of price increases [4] - The years 2020 to 2021 saw a resurgence in real estate prices, with 2021 recording a historical high in sales area at approximately 1.8 billion square meters [5] - Since 2022, the real estate market has entered a downward adjustment phase due to economic cycles and demographic shifts, resulting in declining sales and prices [6] Gold Price Trends - From 2011 to 2015, gold prices peaked at 327 yuan/gram in 2011, followed by a decline to 235 yuan/gram by 2015 [7] - The period from 2016 to 2020 saw a fluctuating increase in gold prices, reaching 386 yuan/gram in 2020 due to heightened investor risk aversion [8] - The trend from 2021 to 2025 indicates a continuous rise in gold prices, with projections suggesting prices could reach 768 yuan/gram or higher by 2025, driven by global economic instability and inflation expectations [9][10] Comparative Analysis of Real Estate and Gold - Over the past decade, real estate has appreciated approximately 68%, while gold has increased by 89.5% [13] - Real estate has low liquidity with long transaction cycles, whereas gold offers high liquidity with immediate cash realization [13] - The holding costs for real estate are high due to taxes and maintenance, while gold has lower holding costs [13] - The entry threshold for real estate is high, requiring substantial down payments, while gold can be purchased starting from 1 gram [13] Recommendations for Ordinary Investors - For those considering real estate, it is advisable to have stable cash flow, focus on core areas in first-tier or strong second-tier cities, and have a need for self-occupation or long-term rental [12] - For those leaning towards gold, it is suitable for individuals with smaller capital or those concerned about economic volatility, as well as those lacking the capacity to manage real estate [12] - A balanced investment strategy could involve prioritizing real estate for self-occupation while considering a combination of core city properties and gold for investment, with a suggested allocation of 70% real estate to 30% gold [12]