近年来，黄金投资的讨论热度不断攀升，金条、金饰等实物黄金交易火热，黄金ETF(159934)等产品也 受到市场资金关注。近日，黄金价格出现显著回调，也有投资者发出疑问：投资黄金，一定就能保值 吗？ 在大家的固有印象中，黄金通常被视为"避险资产"，代表着"保值、抗风险"。但从历史数据来看，其实 黄金价格的波动并不小，若遇到熊市，也可能会带来较大的资金损失。 虽然近二十几年黄金资产的表现较好，2000年至今黄金价格的年化收益率约11%，但如果把目光再放远 一点，可以看到黄金也曾经历长达十多年的熊市。 如下图所示，从布雷顿森林体系瓦解(1971年)以来，黄金出现过几次跌幅较大的熊市。例如，1987年末 到1999年下半年的熊市持续了11年7个月，而其他三次的持续时间分别为1年8个月、5年1个月和4年3个 月。跌幅最大的是1980年初开始持续了5年多的熊市，黄金价格下跌66%，而其他三次熊市跌幅也达到 了45%-49%不等。 图：1970年以来黄金价格走势 数据来源：Wind，图中展示伦敦现货黄金价格，单位为美元/盎司，按月统计，统计区间为1969/12/31- 2025/10/23。 驱动黄金价格的因素比较复杂，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rising popularity of "pain gold" jewelry, which features designs inspired by anime and other pop culture elements, is driven by young consumers' willingness to pay for emotional value, but there are concerns about its long-term value retention as market hype may fade [1][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - "Pain gold" products are becoming the main attraction in gold stores, replacing traditional items like bracelets and charms [2]. - Major brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Miao, and Chao Hong Ji are actively promoting "pain gold" items, with a significant portion of their displays dedicated to these collaborations [2][4]. - The emotional connection to characters from popular series like "Tian Guan Ci Fu" is a key driver for purchases, with consumers willing to spend large amounts on these items [4][5]. Group 2: Pricing and Valuation - "Pain gold" products are typically sold at fixed prices, often significantly higher than traditional gold pricing, with examples including a Chow Tai Fook Stitch bracelet priced at 5340 yuan and a Lao Miao "Tian Guan Ci Fu" bracelet at 1520 yuan [5][6]. - The pricing strategy often obscures the actual gold weight, leading to high premiums; for instance, a gold note weighing only 0.2 grams is priced at 520 yuan, equating to 2600 yuan per gram [6][10]. - The premium pricing is justified by sellers citing the complexity of production and the costs associated with IP licensing [8]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Risks - Consumers face significant depreciation when attempting to resell "pain gold" items, with buyback offers often being a fraction of the original price [10][11]. - The marketing of "pain gold" emphasizes emotional and investment value, but there are concerns about transparency regarding actual gold weight and resale conditions [12]. - Many consumers report feeling misled about the value retention of these products, leading to dissatisfaction when they attempt to sell them [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the value retention of real estate versus gold over the past decade, highlighting the recent decline in real estate prices and the rise in gold prices, suggesting a shift in asset allocation preferences among ordinary investors. Real Estate Price Trends - From 2011 to 2015, real estate prices in 70 major cities in China experienced a stable fluctuation, with limited significant changes in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [1][2] - The period from 2015 to 2017 marked a rapid increase in real estate prices, with Shenzhen's average price soaring from 22,198 yuan/m² in 2014 to 51,935 yuan/m² in 2016 [3] - Between 2017 and 2019, government policies such as purchase and loan restrictions were implemented to stabilize the market, leading to a gradual narrowing of price increases [4] - The years 2020 to 2021 saw a resurgence in real estate prices, with 2021 recording a historical high in sales area at approximately 1.8 billion square meters [5] - Since 2022, the real estate market has entered a downward adjustment phase due to economic cycles and demographic shifts, resulting in declining sales and prices [6] Gold Price Trends - From 2011 to 2015, gold prices peaked at 327 yuan/gram in 2011, followed by a decline to 235 yuan/gram by 2015 [7] - The period from 2016 to 2020 saw a fluctuating increase in gold prices, reaching 386 yuan/gram in 2020 due to heightened investor risk aversion [8] - The trend from 2021 to 2025 indicates a continuous rise in gold prices, with projections suggesting prices could reach 768 yuan/gram or higher by 2025, driven by global economic instability and inflation expectations [9][10] Comparative Analysis of Real Estate and Gold - Over the past decade, real estate has appreciated approximately 68%, while gold has increased by 89.5% [13] - Real estate has low liquidity with long transaction cycles, whereas gold offers high liquidity with immediate cash realization [13] - The holding costs for real estate are high due to taxes and maintenance, while gold has lower holding costs [13] - The entry threshold for real estate is high, requiring substantial down payments, while gold can be purchased starting from 1 gram [13] Recommendations for Ordinary Investors - For those considering real estate, it is advisable to have stable cash flow, focus on core areas in first-tier or strong second-tier cities, and have a need for self-occupation or long-term rental [12] - For those leaning towards gold, it is suitable for individuals with smaller capital or those concerned about economic volatility, as well as those lacking the capacity to manage real estate [12] - A balanced investment strategy could involve prioritizing real estate for self-occupation while considering a combination of core city properties and gold for investment, with a suggested allocation of 70% real estate to 30% gold [12]