最近一年走势 投资要点: 2025 年 08 月 18 日 固定收益点评 研究所： | 证券分析师： | | 靳毅 S0350517100001 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | jiny01@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 马闻倬 S0350124070011 | | | | mawz@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 利率调整到位了吗？ 固定收益点评 利率调整到位了吗？ 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 相关报告 《固定收益点评：8 月会出现债市拐点吗？*靳毅》 ——2025-08-11 《固定收益点评：8 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-08-04 《固定收益点评：债市调整结束了吗？*靳毅》— —2025-07-27 《固定收益点评：债市有哪些边际变化？*靳毅》 ——2025-07-21 《固定收益点评：股债跷跷板如何演绎？*靳毅》 ——2025-07-14 近期为何利率上行？ ①资金利率持续低位，资金面宽松，短端利率变化不大；②"反内 卷"政策出台，通胀预期升温，抬升长端利率中枢；③股市持续上 涨，压制债市行情。 ①从 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the bond market correction in the 4th week of July 2025 and analyzes its causes and future trends [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The bond market correction on July 29 was mainly due to institutional behavior, and future attention should be paid to the decline in borrowing volume and the stabilization of bond fund redemptions [2][7] - The long - term bullish logic of the bond market has not changed, and it is still too early to talk about a bond market reversal [7] Group 4: Characteristics of the Bond Market Correction - Intra - day fluctuations were small, and interest rates continued to rise, different from the rapid decline in the late trading in 2024 [3] - The correction was not directly caused by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw, and it was difficult to explain from the macro - capital flow [3] - The adjustment of 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 30Y treasury bonds was the most obvious, with an upward amplitude of about 4bp [3] Group 5: Reasons from the Institutional Behavior Perspective - On July 29, both securities firms and funds were net sellers throughout the day, which was different from the past [4] - Medium - and long - term bond funds faced redemption pressure, and funds continued to flow out slightly [4] - Securities firms were borrowing and selling bonds, mainly borrowing 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 30Y treasury bonds for short - selling on the cash bond side, similar to the situation in the first quarter of this year [4] Group 6: Macro - background Factors - With increasing macro - disturbance factors such as the childcare subsidy policy and waiting for the Politburo meeting and Sino - US negotiations, securities firms may increase borrowing and selling [6] Group 7: Future Market Outlook - The bond market correction was a resonance of trading desks actively increasing borrowing and selling and continuous bond fund redemptions [7] - High - frequency attention should be paid to whether securities firms further increase short - selling through borrowing and whether the bond fund redemption pressure ends completely [7] Group 8: Impact of Insurance Institutions - The reduction of the预定 interest rate by insurance institutions may have a "short - term positive and long - term negative" impact on the bond market [6] - In the short term, increased premium income may lead to more purchases of ultra - long bonds during corrections, but in the long term, the preference for 30Y treasury bonds has declined, and local government bonds are the main allocation bonds [6] Group 9: Potential Scale of Securities Firms' Borrowing and Selling - If securities firms continue to increase borrowing and selling, the net selling scale may reach up to 35 billion yuan under a pessimistic assumption [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has recently undergone significant adjustments, and the adjustment may not be over yet. The market generally expects the yield of the 10 - year active bond to operate between 1.7% - 1.8% in the next month, with the yield top at 1.8% and the bottom at 1.6% in the second half of the year. The report maintains the mid - term strategy of 1.6% - 1.9% for the 10 - year treasury bond [3][8]. - The market generally expects the yield curve to steepen, with a higher probability of a bear steepening. Making the curve steeper remains a relatively high - probability strategy [11]. - The expected returns of bond funds have been significantly downgraded, and bonds are currently the least favored major asset class. The market expects the yield of medium - and long - term bond funds to be below 2% for over 80% of the time, and below 1.5% for 40% of the time this year [3][15]. - The bond market may experience some oversold rebounds, but the upside is limited due to insufficient internal positive factors. It is recommended to be cautious with duration, lower annual return expectations, maintain a low - volatility portfolio, and seize short - term trading opportunities [3][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for the Bond Market Adjustment - The rise of commodities and equities is considered the main reason. The stock and commodity markets have strengthened this week, with the duration and amplitude exceeding market expectations, which has weakened the sentiment in the bond market. The low interest rate level is a secondary reason, as the low cost - effectiveness of bond assets and limited downward space for interest rates lead to significant adjustments when there are negative factors [3][5]. Bond Market Stabilization - Most views believe that the bond market has not yet stabilized, but small - scale entry is possible. Some also think that sentiment has reversed and short - term stabilization is difficult, while few believe the adjustment has ended. The bond market has been affected by risk assets in the past few days, and yesterday's sharp decline was also due to the tightening of funds in July and the lower - than - expected MLF roll - over at the end of the session [3][5]. Yield Point Estimation - 1.8% is generally considered the upper limit of this round of adjustment. Most think the 10 - year active bond will operate between 1.7% - 1.8% in the next month, with the yield top at 1.8% and the bottom at 1.6% in the second half of the year. The report believes that there may be some repair around 1.8%, and oversold rebound operations can be carried out in the range of 1.75% - 1.8%, but the interest rate adjustment may not be over in the whole - year dimension [3][8]. Yield Curve Expectation - The market generally expects the yield curve to steepen, with a higher probability of a bear steepening. Since July, funds have been relatively loose, so the short - end adjustment has been significantly smaller than the long - end. The market generally expects funds to maintain the current level, while the long - end is more affected by other factors. Making the curve steeper remains a relatively high - probability strategy [11]. Risks and Opportunities in the Bond Market - The mainstream expectations for bond market opportunities are central bank bond purchases, A - share and commodity market corrections, while the attention to real estate and tariffs has weakened. Risk factors are more diverse, including A - share rises, institutional redemption pressure, central bank tightening of liquidity, and inflation increases. Although the decline in this round is less than that in the first quarter, the redemption of bond funds is stronger, and the secondary impact of redemptions needs to be vigilant [3][13]. Bond Fund Return Expectation - The expected returns of bond funds have been significantly downgraded, and bonds are currently the least favored major asset class. As of July 22, the year - to - date returns of the money market fund index and the long - term pure bond fund index are 0.77% and 0.70% respectively. Over 80% of the market expects the yield of medium - and long - term bond funds to be below 2% this year, and 40% expect it to be below 1.5%, indicating that the market expects the second - half returns to be difficult to exceed the first - half returns [3][15].