Group 1 - Recent adjustments in the sovereign debt markets of Europe and Japan have led to a global financial market risk-off sentiment, driven by political instability and rising expectations for fiscal easing [2][3][33] - The rise in long-term bond yields is primarily attributed to the rebound in inflation and the increase in medium- to long-term inflation expectations, with core CPI in major Western economies returning to the "3 era" [2][3][42] - The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) are marginally tightening their monetary policies, contributing to the rise in bond yields, while the Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting phase [3][53] Group 2 - The U.S. monetary market is undergoing a "stress test" due to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA), and seasonal tax payments, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the 2019 repo crisis [4][58][61] - The liquidity environment in the U.S. monetary market is somewhat similar to that of September 2019, but the risk of a repeat crisis is considered manageable due to the gradual nature of the Fed's balance sheet reduction and the overall liquidity remaining ample [4][65][69] Group 3 - The risk of a "Treasury tantrum" in the U.S. is currently deemed controllable, with several factors supporting stability in the bond market, including the passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" and improved fiscal conditions [4][78][79] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to trend upward, driven by rising term premiums and a return to a "fiscal dominance" paradigm, with the frequency of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies likely to increase [5][83][84]

Group 1: Sovereign Debt Market Adjustments - Recent adjustments in European and Japanese sovereign debt markets have led to a global risk-off sentiment, with UK 10-year bond yields rising to 4.85% and 30-year yields reaching 5.89%, the highest since 1998[14][22] - Political instability and expectations of fiscal easing in Europe and Japan are primary drivers of rising bond yields, with UK CPI inflation at 3.7% and Japan's core-core CPI at 3.4%[3][37] - The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) are shifting towards tighter monetary policies, contributing to the upward pressure on long-term bond yields[4][41] Group 2: US Monetary Market Pressure Test - The US monetary market is undergoing a "stress test" due to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, TGA account rebuilding, and seasonal corporate tax payments, reminiscent of the 2019 repo crisis[5][45] - In September 2019, secured overnight financing rates (SOFR) spiked to 5.25%, highlighting liquidity shortages, with a similar environment emerging now but with manageable risks[49][50] - Current liquidity remains ample, and the Fed has tools to manage potential pressures, indicating that while risks exist, they are not imminent[56][61] Group 3: Reassessment of US Treasury Risks - The risk of a repeat of the "Treasury tantrum" is considered controllable, with factors such as a larger TGA funding gap and increased long-term debt issuance influencing market stability[6][63] - The US economy is projected to grow at around 5% in Q3 2023, but inflationary pressures remain, with Brent crude oil prices fluctuating around $90 per barrel[6][63] - The long-term outlook for US Treasury yields suggests an upward trend driven by fiscal dominance and rising term premiums, with market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 being overly optimistic[66][68]

Group 1: Key Insights - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" signed by Trump on July 4, 2025, raises the debt ceiling and increases the deficit rate, legalizing "Trump economics" [7] - The act is projected to impact the nominal GDP of the year at $29.2 trillion, with a 10-year deficit effect of $3.9 trillion, accounting for 13% of the GDP [7] - The act's economic effects and potential to reignite "U.S. debt panic" are under scrutiny [7] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Trends - June inflation data shows a CPI of 0.1% year-on-year, with PPI at -3.6%, indicating a divergence in inflation trends [16] - The U.S. is shifting from equal tariffs to "discriminatory tariffs," with new tariffs set to take effect on August 1, 2025 [19] - Domestic travel intensity remains high, reflecting robust consumer activity [21] Group 3: Policy Developments - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need for orderly exit of outdated production capacity and regulation of low-price competition among enterprises [29] - The meeting also highlighted the importance of promoting high-quality development in the marine economy and enhancing marine ecological protection [29]

Group 1 - The "Beautiful Bill" expands the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies [2][6][9] - The bill legalizes Trump's economic policies, enhancing federal control over local governments and increasing discretionary power in key areas [2][6] - The economic effects include a mild boost to the U.S. economy, benefiting traditional industries while negatively impacting low-income groups [3][21][32] Group 2 - The bill is expected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by an average of 0.1% from 2025 to 2034, with the most significant impact occurring between 2026 and 2028 [21][22] - The legislation will lead to a 3.9% income decrease for the lowest 10% of households, while the highest 10% will see an average increase of 2.3% [3][32] - Traditional and capital-intensive industries will benefit from investment depreciation incentives, while the renewable energy sector may suffer due to reduced subsidies [32][55] Group 3 - The supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to remain stable, with a relatively friendly macro environment, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums [4][35] - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise moderately, with tariff revenues potentially offsetting 54% of the deficit increase [40][56] - The bill is unlikely to trigger a significant debt crisis, but it may systematically elevate term premiums [5][45][56]

Group 1 - The "Beautiful Bill" Act is expected to expand the total deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion, primarily continuing existing policies rather than introducing new ones [2][6][9] - The Act is projected to provide a mild boost to the U.S. economy, with an average annual increase in real GDP growth of 0.1% from 2025 to 2034, peaking at 0.8% during 2026-2028 [2][22][32] - The Act will negatively impact low-income households, with the lowest 10% of earners expected to see a 3.9% decrease in income due to cuts in medical assistance and SNAP benefits [3][32] Group 2 - Traditional and capital-intensive industries are likely to benefit from the Act, while the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors may suffer due to reduced subsidies [3][32][55] - The Act includes significant increases in defense spending, with an additional $150 billion allocated, and immigration enforcement spending reaching a historical high of $1.74 trillion [13][16] - The Act's tax cuts are heavily skewed towards higher-income households, with the top 10% expected to see an average income increase of 2.3% [3][32] Group 3 - The liquidity of U.S. Treasuries is expected to remain stable, with manageable supply pressures and a friendly macroeconomic environment, although there may still be upward pressure on term premiums [4][35][45] - The projected federal debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 103% by 2026 and 116% by 2030, but the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis remains low [5][45][56] - The Act's impact on inflation is anticipated to be minimal, with peak inflation effects projected to be only 0.12% by 2027 [22][32]