2026年开年，就不一般。 首先，是本周的宏观局势。 从3号美国直接抓捕了委内瑞拉的总统开始，全球一片震惊。 我今天的文章可能有点分散，但都是针对本周的行情，有感而发。 大家不必特别纠结大的逻辑。 川普在其社交平台"真实社交"发文表示，他决定，"为了国家的利益"，尤其是在当前这个"动荡不 安、危机四伏"的时期，2027年美国军事预算不应该是1万亿美元，而应该是1.5万亿美元。 石油、大宗、黄金、白银等价格都跟着有一波的波动。 宏观来看，因为川普的一系列"不确定性"的动作，2026年的局势变得扑朔迷离。 川普下一个动手的对象是谁，从目前来看，很可能是格陵兰岛。 之前川普说不排除武力手段拿下格陵兰岛，而且就在1月7日的时候， 1.5万亿美元，这意味着什么？ 不排除真的会有新的一轮军备竞赛。 从2022年俄乌，再到25年的印巴和以伊冲突，再到开年来了个委内瑞拉。 全球正在经历S2以来的最大一次秩序重组，这个时候美国提出要增加军费支出，肯定会让人多想。 昨天晚上，美股的军工板块已经迎来一波上涨。 格陵兰岛冰山下拥有150万吨稀土储量，相当于全球已探明储量的10% 。 美国控制 了格陵兰岛的 资源 之 后， 就可以 对 ...

盘前要闻 1、央企"巨无霸"重组启幕!超2000亿元航空燃油市场或将重构 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 据国资委网站，经报国务院批准，中国石油化工集团有限公司与中国航空油料集团有限公司实施重组。 业内人士认为，中石化拥有强大的炼化产能，中航油则掌控终端分销网络，打造"从炼厂到机翼"的全链 条一体化企业，有望助力降低航空燃料供应成本，增强我国航空燃料产业竞争力。 2、剑指中国商业航天新一极!广州拟攻关可复用火箭技术 类型：行业 4、商务部回应审查Meta收购Manus 类型：公司 情绪影响：正面 1月8日，广州市人民政府办公厅发布《广州市加快建设先进制造业强市规划(2024—2035年)》，提出到 2035年，打造具有全球影响力的中国商业航天新一极。聚焦攻关可重复使用火箭技术，为中大型液体火 箭研制提供坚实基础，未来将面向全国科研院所、企业和高校等开放共享。 3、业内人士：监管总局约谈6家光伏龙头及行业协会，不得约定产能及价格 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 有市场传闻称，市场监管总局约谈中国光伏行业协会、通威集团、大全能源、新特能源等，约谈内容涉 及通报有关垄断风险。记者核实本次约谈确有其事。市场监管总局要求光伏行 ...

以下文章来源于重阳投资 ，作者重阳投资 重阳投资 . 重阳投资官方订阅号。"金牛奖"十一连冠私募基金公司，重阳投资，真诚汇智。 点击↑↑上图查看2025年十大现象级事件 摘 要：2025年，中国股票市场强势回升，上证指数创下十年新高，同时结构上是高度分化的。展望2026年，如何把握新的机遇？重阳投资从未来之辩、 配置之辩、当下之辩和策略之辩四个角度试着给出回答。 未来之辩 中国是否会重现日本失落的轨迹？我们的答案——"不会"。中国经济不同于日本，最大的区别是中国的创新能力远超日本，另一个优势则在于中国的不可替 代性。日本经济在20世纪90年代以后失去发展动能，一个很重要的历史背景是中国经济的迅速崛起，从而不断削弱日本的产业优势。然而对于中国而言， 在中国之后"下一个还是中国"。云开雾散，中国市场已经从部分投资者此前认为的"不可投资"（uninvestable）转向为具有"战略配置价值"（value of strategic allocation）的市场。 配置之辩 股市的增量资金来自哪里？从大的方向上看，我们认为股市的增量资金源于低利率环境下居民和金融机构资产的再配置。2024-2025年是中国历史上第一次 ...

不是欧洲没上桌，而是它的那把椅子早就被人悄悄抽走。 未来世界将由中美俄说了算，听上去像是"口嗨"，可你真要拆解一下这盘棋，就发现欧洲掉队，的确是 板上钉钉。 布鲁塞尔和它的盟友们还在高谈"软实力"，可冷酷的现实是他们的硬通货，经济、能源与军事实力正在 断崖式滑落。 2025年12月初《美国国家安全战略》全文厚厚几十页，之前好歹还会在序言中象征性地喊欧洲一句"关 键伙伴"，现在干脆用"重要盟友"这种模糊词混过去。 欧洲军工行业象征性地保留在全球前十的只剩个把门面；欧盟经济总量下跌严重；绿能投资被美国吸走 不少；连重大科技企业都开始搬去得州和亚利桑那。 华盛顿亮明新牌桌，欧洲发现自己连邀请函都没收到。 第一，战略存在感：俄乌冲突让莫斯科保持了全球焦点地位；逼迫欧盟用真金白银支持乌克兰，但换来 的是内部债务爆炸。 欧洲崛起靠三样东西：廉价俄气、对华出口、大西洋庇护，如今这三条线全断了，而且是自己把剪刀递 上去的。 2022年北溪管道被炸是信号弹也是分水岭，德国化工行业成本飙涨，巴斯夫跑到广东湛江投资新园区， 大众、宝马高端电池打算搬去重庆合肥。 在军工上，欧洲就更干脆地"裸奔"了。俄罗斯高超音速导弹"先锋""匕首" ...

（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 12月10日，尤洛卡在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，军工业务引入战略投资者是公司 一项长期且审慎的战略行为，如有实质性进展并达到信息披露标准，公司将严格按照相关法律法规及监 管要求及时履行信息披露义务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of in-depth research in the metal and materials sector, highlighting the expertise and recognition of analysts in this field [2][3]. Group 1: Analyst Credentials - The lead analyst, Li Pengfei, has a strong academic background with a Master's in Finance from Peking University and dual Master's degrees in Economics from The Chinese University of Hong Kong, along with 9 years of experience in metal and materials research [3]. - Li Pengfei has received multiple accolades, including being ranked third in the 2024 New Fortune Best Analyst and fifth in 2023, showcasing a consistent track record of excellence in the industry [3]. Group 2: Research Focus - The company is dedicated to long-term, continuous, and effective deep research in metals, indicating a commitment to providing comprehensive insights into market trends and opportunities [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering its industry-leading position and strategic layout in the aerospace sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 800.1 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.63%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.48% year-over-year to 243 million yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 285 million yuan, a year-over-year growth of 12.85% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.68%. The net profit for the quarter was 97 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.73% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17.32% [1][2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 declined by 6.92 percentage points to 47.69%, primarily due to the transition phase of special functional materials and increased costs during the ramp-up period of subsidiary production [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 243 million yuan, down 21.48% year-over-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 213 million yuan, down 27.87% year-over-year [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 251 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, compared to 157 million yuan in the same period last year [3]. Business Segments - The company’s main research and development revenue accounted for over 60% of total revenue, with several new products already in mass production [2]. - Subsidiaries reported strong order intake, with Huayin Aerospace achieving a revenue of 103 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 142.95%, and cumulative orders of 244 million yuan [2]. Research and Development - R&D expenses increased by 81.39% year-over-year to 105 million yuan, reflecting the company's ongoing investment in special functional materials and aerospace components [3]. - The R&D expense ratio rose to 13.11%, indicating a focus on innovation and product development [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 415 million yuan, 601 million yuan, and 823 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 46x, 32x, and 23x [4][5].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced volatility with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points, marking a new high since August 2015, but closed down 0.22% at 3988.22 points [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 21,656 billion yuan, a decrease of over 1900 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Resource stocks, including non-ferrous metals, steel, electricity, and gas, saw collective declines, while the military and humanoid robot sectors experienced gains [1][2] - The military sector saw significant increases, with stocks like Jianglong Shipbuilding and Beifang Changlong hitting their daily limit of 20% and over 16% respectively [4] - The humanoid robot concept stocks also surged, with companies like Jinfutech and Yongmaotai reaching their daily limit [2] Technology and Innovation - The technology sector is characterized by a "technology bull" market, driven by policy and capital support, with a focus on semiconductor, general aviation, and innovative pharmaceuticals as potential investment opportunities [3][6] - AI application stocks showed strong performance, with companies like Tianxiexiu and Shuiyou Shares hitting their daily limit, supported by recent policy initiatives promoting AI innovation [5][6] Gold and Commodities - Following a period of rapid gains, gold and non-ferrous metal stocks faced significant declines, with companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals hitting their daily limit down [7] - Global precious metal markets experienced a correction, with spot gold prices falling below $3930 per ounce, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The government shutdown has become a routine occurrence, with citizens expressing a sense of resignation as their salaries remain unaffected [1][3] - The financial markets are largely unfazed by the shutdown, with the VIX index showing minimal fluctuations and traders maintaining a calm demeanor [4][10] - Companies reliant on government contracts, particularly in the defense sector, are experiencing slight stock price increases, while other sectors like banking are seeing net redemptions in ETFs [6][8] Group 2 - The impact of the shutdown on GDP is projected to be minimal, with estimates suggesting a 0.18% decrease if the shutdown lasts over two weeks [3] - Tech companies report little disruption, attributing their resilience to diversified revenue streams, while government-dependent firms are adjusting payment schedules [6][8] - Market sentiment remains stable, with investors confident that the Federal Reserve will intervene if the situation escalates [10]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Guangqi Technology executed three block trades on September 10, totaling 3.9 million shares and amounting to 173 million yuan, with a trading price of 44.40 yuan, reflecting a discount of 2.99% compared to the closing price of the day [2] - Over the past three months, Guangqi Technology has recorded a total of 24 block trades, with a cumulative transaction amount of 1.969 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, Guangqi Technology's closing price was 45.77 yuan, showing an increase of 0.86%, with a daily turnover rate of 1.66% and a total transaction amount of 1.631 billion yuan, while there was a net outflow of 140 million yuan in main funds [2] Group 2 - In the last five days, Guangqi Technology's stock has decreased by 6.06%, with a total net outflow of 919 million yuan [2] - The latest margin financing balance for Guangqi Technology is 7.193 billion yuan, which has increased by 94.34 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 1.33% [2] - A detailed overview of the block trades on September 10 shows that the trading price was consistently 44.40 yuan, with three different brokerage firms involved in the transactions [2]