关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人| 赵宇 摘要 美国时间7月4日，特朗普签署《美丽大法案》。法案将提高债务上限，抬升赤字率，将"特朗普经济 学"法律化。法案有哪些经济效应、是否会再次引爆"美债恐慌"？ 热点思考：《美丽大法案》：再次引爆"国债恐慌"？ （一）《美丽大法案》扩张总赤字约4.1万亿，但主要为存量政策的延续 《美丽大法案》生效后，特朗普经济学的政策主张得以落地。 特朗普在立法过程中展现出对共和党的高 度控制力，特朗普的经济主张得到了完整呈现。特朗普借助法案加强了联邦政府对地方政府的控制力， 在社保福利、移民执法等关键领域扩大了行政体系自由裁量权。 法案或扩张总赤字4.1万亿，规模位列二战后前列。 法案内容包括：减税，扩大驱逐移民支出，扩大国防 开支，削减福利支出，削减新能源补贴支出。以占GDP比重为口径计算，赤字增量仅次于1981年里根减 税。但若剔除延长TCJA的内容，仅考虑增量，量级则可能被夸大。 （二）经济效应：温和提振美国经济、利好旧经济，低收入群体受损 《美丽大法案》有助于美国经济"稳增长"。 参考CBO等机构的研究，2025-2034年，法案或使美国实际 ...

Legislative Progress - The "Beautiful Act" has passed the Senate with a narrow margin of 51 to 50, entering the final legislative phase [1][13] - The bill will undergo review in the House of Representatives, with potential for further amendments [1][13] - Three possible timelines for final passage: before July 4, mid-July, or late July to August [2][13] Content Adjustments - The Senate version increases the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, $550 billion more than the House version [2][14] - Corporate tax cuts are expanded while personal tax cuts are reduced, favoring high-income earners [2][14] - Significant cuts to healthcare and welfare spending, with medical assistance cuts increasing from $800 billion to $930 billion [3][14] Economic Impact - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to moderately boost the U.S. economy, potentially increasing annual GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027 [4][15] - The lowest 20% of income households may see a 2.9% decrease in income, while the highest 20% could experience a 1.9% increase [5][15] - Capital-intensive industries (manufacturing, data centers) are likely to benefit, while the renewable energy sector may face challenges due to reduced tax incentives [5][15]

Group 1: Military Industry - The military industry is currently in a state with significant upward potential and a solid bottom, despite weak performance expectations for 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [1] - Major contracts and bidding notifications have been announced by several listed companies in the aerospace sector, enhancing market expectations for performance recovery [1] Group 2: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The release of measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs has sparked renewed interest in the sector, with a focus on opening public data resources for innovative drug research and expanding commercial health insurance coverage [1] - Institutions have positively evaluated these measures, which are expected to facilitate China's transition from a "generic drug powerhouse" to an "innovative drug stronghold," benefiting leading innovative drug companies and the biotech sector [1] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The automotive industry in the Yangtze River Delta region is facing severe challenges, including high inventory levels, disordered market competition, and increased risks to the financial chain of enterprises [2][3] - Dealers have suggested that manufacturers allow reasonable inventory limits and adjust sales targets to better align with regional market capacities [3] Group 4: Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% and the ChiNext Index falling by 0.24%, with a total market turnover of 14,967 billion yuan [6] - The innovative drug concept stocks surged in the afternoon, with companies like Shutaishen and Anglikang reaching historical highs [6] Group 5: Industry Trends - The PCB sector is experiencing activity due to a report from Citigroup predicting significant growth in AI-PCB markets in 2026 and 2027, with an estimated total addressable market of 53 billion yuan, reflecting a 53% year-on-year increase [6][7] - The report also highlights a projected supply gap of at least 3 billion yuan in AI-PCB from 2026, even without considering capacity expansion and assembly yield loss [7]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming military parade on September 3rd, commemorating the 80th anniversary of China's victory in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, is expected to boost the military industry sector, which has historically shown independent excess returns prior to such events [1][2]. Military Industry Performance - The military industry sector has been active recently, with the military ETF (512660) experiencing an 8% increase in the past five days. This performance is attributed to the upcoming parade as well as ongoing military trade demand and international geopolitical fluctuations [4]. - The military ETF (512660) has seen a significant increase in shares, growing over 40% year-on-year, with its current scale exceeding 15.6 billion yuan [4]. Military Trade Demand - Chinese military equipment has gained recognition in various real combat scenarios, leading to increased international demand. Pakistan has announced plans to acquire several advanced Chinese military products, including the J-35 stealth fighter and the Hongqi-19 air defense system [5]. Global Military Expenditure Trends - Global military expenditures are on the rise due to ongoing geopolitical risks. NATO members have agreed to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, while China's military spending remains below the average of major military powers, indicating potential for growth [8]. Emerging Themes in Military Industry - New themes such as low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, large aircraft, and military intelligence are becoming increasingly active. These themes are expected to deepen and evolve, contributing to a potential recovery in the military industry [10]. Financial Performance and Outlook - The military industry sector is projected to see a recovery in margins and profitability starting in Q1 2025, following a dip in Q4 2024. The increase in total prepayments by 9.35% year-on-year suggests a rebound in downstream orders [12]. - The military ETF (512660) is noted for its liquidity and defensive characteristics, having shown the smallest decline during market downturns in 2018, 2022, and 2023, while ranking first in returns among peers in 2024 [14][17].

风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 今日A股市场券商行业全线飙涨，证券ETF涨5.37%，账户总收益刷新今年新高。持仓中财富趋势涨幅 17.84%，港股中信建投证券涨10.18%，此前抄底加仓部分实现较大浮盈。涨因是6月24日国泰君安国际 获香港批准升级证券交易牌照，可提供虚拟资产交易服务。其股价暴涨198.39%，带动港股和A股券商 及炒股软件行业集体兴奋。不过，对A股券商真实利好有限，情绪因素大于实际业绩提升潜力。此外， 军工行业配合上涨，四大市场指数超预期上攻。但行情与去年9.24相比强度不足，不能认定为有效突破 或"牛市启动"。明天将从技术角度分析，还会给出两套操作规划。投资者应冷静，仓位低的不必焦虑。 2025.06.25 A股市场券商行业飙涨 和讯自选股写手 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称["财富趋势","中信 ...

中东局势紧张，据央视，当地时间6月19日，伊朗方面警告第三方勿介入伊以冲突，白宫称特朗普将在 两周内决定是否攻击伊朗，以总理内塔尼亚胡称与美总统设定共同目标。昨夜今晨，伊以双方再次进行 军事行动。伊朗"真实承诺-3"第15阶段行动启动，发动新一轮导弹袭击。以色列发动针对伊朗首都空 袭。伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书处19日发表声明称，近期该委员会已召开多轮紧急会议，决定针对以 方的对等报复行动将持续实施，直至其付出应有代价。声明同时指出，若第三方势力介入此次侵略行 径，伊朗将根据既定方案立即予以回应。美国白宫19日就伊朗问题表示，美国总统特朗普将在两周内决 定是否攻击伊朗。美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特当天还表示，美国与伊朗的沟通仍在继续。美国总统特朗普 称与伊朗谈判"有很大"机会。 A股军工板块关注度提升，近期国证航天指数交投活跃，市场关注度提升，昨日国证航天相关ETF获得 资金净流入。其中，航空航天ETF、航空航天ETF天弘昨日净流入额分别为3869万元、1020万元。 国证航天指数以超99%的军工行业权重形成显著特征，是全市场军工含量最高指数。 从长期视角看，东北证券指出，军工板块具备长期成长确定性，2023年以来 ...

截止上周，截止上周，32 只主题 ETF 的平均周涨跌幅为-0.32%。其中大盘风 格 ETF 平均周涨跌幅为-0.45%，中小盘风格 ETF 平均周涨跌幅为-0.22%。从 成交量来看，我们跟踪的主题 ETF 总成交额为 314.80 亿元，比前周变化-41.92 亿元。其中，大盘风格 ETF 成交额为 134.30 亿元，变化-24.53 亿元；中小 盘风格 ETF 的成交额为 180.50 亿元，变化-17.39 亿元。 统计综合和行业主题下最具代表性的 ETF 表现。从收益来看，综合类 ETF 涨 跌互现，其中位列前三的 ETF 为 1000ETF、500ETF、800ETF，涨跌幅分别为 0.87%、0.57%、-0.50%。位列最后三位的 ETF 为创业板 50、深 100ETF、创业 板，涨跌幅分别为-1.89%、-1.56%、-1.10%。 行业主题类 ETF 涨跌互现，其 中位列前三的 ETF 为生物医药、军工龙头、军工 ETF，涨跌幅分别为 2.11%、 1.96%、1.85%。位列最后三位的 ETF 为新汽车、新能车、有色 ETF，涨跌幅 分别为-4.70%、-4.68%、-2.34%。 ...

| 连板数 | 晋级率 | | 2025-5-26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 #4 | 1/2=50% | 汇得科技（化工） | | | 2进3 | 3/7=43% | 尚纬股份(核电+实控人变更) | | | | | 京华激光(IP经济+光刻机) | | | 1讲2 | 6/31=19% | 苏州龙杰 (化工+纺织+军工) | | | | | 永冠新材 (化工) | | | | | 雪人股份(核电) | | | 其他涨停 | | 宜宾纸业6天5板 (化工+纺织+军工) | | | | | 安 纳 达9天5板 (化工) | | | | | 百利电气7天4板 (核电) | | | | | 保变电气6天3板(中兵系+核电) | | | | | 会稽山4天2板(食品饮料) | | 5月26日连板股分析：连板股晋级率40% 可控核聚变、无人配送等题材活跃 今日共61股涨停，连板股总数10只，其中三连板及以上个股4只，上一交易日共10只连板股，连板股晋级率40%（不含ST股、退市股）。个股方面，全市场 超3700只个股上涨，短线情绪迎来一定修复，苏州龙杰超预期一字涨停，中超控股走出 ...

那么接下来市场如果还需要打高度的话，就看是高低切还是高中切了，如果是高低切，底部板块太多太 杂太慢，如果是高中切的话，就是港口留下了一个活口，南京就跟之前军工留下的唯一活口成飞是一样 的，但是南京怎么看都很弱，虽然今天第一天反包，但是一直封不住，这个还是需要观察的。如果接力 不上，大概率要走之前有宽度没高度的老路子了，因为大家可以发现5月份整体的行情，基本上资金都 在做低位集中爆发题材的一个大号套利，先是科技题材的大业，再就是军工的期经，然后就是港口的国 航现在是并购重组的五星某庄，所以接下来市场要么就慢慢等低位题材的一个逐步打高度，带情绪，要 么就在低位做爆发题材的一个大号套利，而另一个方向还是昨天给大家提到的一个电力，具体的逻辑大 家感兴趣的可以再去看一下静姐昨天的一个复盘，那么电力这里还是按照大二波的逻辑来进行推演。那 再反观一下当前的市场指数，虽然是阳线，但是不温不火，5日均线已经被压弯了，没有强势的一个势 头，如果一直在这个位置小阴小阳的横盘整理，那么接下来的市场还会带来一波回踩，否则市场题材就 很难有机会跟长阳大盘指数共振出来。 （原标题：和讯投顾张婧：低位套利延续！） 5月21日，和讯投顾张婧分 ...

【解剖大盘】 既然关税回到正常水平，那么市场就要纠错了，反响最强烈的就是消费电子，尤其是果链，在中国有大 规模的采购和供应链布局，关税降低受益最大。高伟电子(01415)、瑞声科技(02018)、比亚迪电子 (00285)、舜宇(02382)、丘钛科技(01478)均涨超13%。再是在北美业务占比较高的汽配股敏实集团 (00425)、泉峰控股(02285)涨近10%，出口家电类的海信家电(00921)、电脑业务占比高的联想集团 (00992)也涨超9%。上次提到的航运类如德翔海运(02510)、东方海外国际(00316)继续涨超5%；今天发 酵的中远海控(01919)涨超8%。 利好有点多，都有点不习惯，尤其是中美这次会谈居然大超预期，恒指直接暴涨2.98%，量能更是大幅 放大到了3224亿。 先说一下周末的利好，首先是印度和巴基斯坦同意停火。上周五判断印巴冲突会"市场倾向于会逐步降 温。"但直接停火是没想到的。印度这么能装的国家都装不下去了，只能说明实力真不允许，或许是背 后的军火供应商扛不住了，再打就彻底要玩脱了。停火当然是好事，周一，印度和巴基斯坦股市强势上 涨。巴基斯坦基准股指KSE-30指数一度飙升 ...