声明：本文内容均是根据权威材料，结合个人观点撰写的原创内容，辛苦各位看官支持。 编辑丨小吕 12月30号晚上到1月1号，全球贵金属市场跟坐过山车似的，黄金一口气跌了3%还多，白银更狠，直接 重挫6%，这可是2023年3月以来最惨的一天。 文丨如梦 国内这边，沪金主力合约直接跌破了1000元/克，最低摸到972元，差点就回到11月中旬的平台位，沪银 虽然没跌破上个月24号的低点，但也在18000元/千克上下晃悠，不少持仓的投资者怕是一夜没睡好。 技术面亮红灯：超买之后必有回调 这次大跌不是突然抽风，技术面上早有预警。 去年12月黄金涨了8%，白银更是涨了12%，RSI指标一个72一个78，都进了超买区间，涨这么猛，获利 盘早就想跑了。 CFTC非商业净多头持仓在12月26号飙到20万手，创了半年新高，这种时候只要有点风吹草动，资金就 会扎堆离场，就像拥挤的电影院突然有人喊"着火"，不踩踏才怪。 说到这波回调的直接推手，交易所的保证金上调绝对要算头一个。 12月29号收盘后，芝商所突然宣布黄金保证金从6500美元/手上调到7200美元，白银更夸张，从9000美 元提到10500美元，这可是去年第三次调了。 国内上 ...

首先，日元加息预期与"AI叙事"主导短期市场。上周，美联储宣布降息25个基点，且表态偏鸽派。本周的市场焦点将转向日元是否加息，考虑到日元 是全球主要套息交易的货币，其全球市场的影响力不容忽视。此外，上周五美国科技股出现集体大跌，AI 泡沫论似有卷土重来之势。这对本周一 A 股科 技资产的表现造成了一定负面的影响，投资者谨慎情绪亦有所提升，需要密切关注"AI叙事"的未来走向。 其次，周一两市震荡调整，成交下降。沪指今日低开后，震荡回落，盘中反弹被上方均线压制，收盘于短期均线下方。深圳成指跌幅 大于沪指，收盘于当天低点附近。两市成交金额1.7 万亿元左右，较上周五明显下降。当天市场热点主要集中在大消费和金融行业。 投资风格方面，科技股跌幅更大。 从运行节奏看，沪指快速调整后连续修复，但短期重新遇到波折。沪指于11月中旬出现快速调整，随后在10月上旬的低点上方获得支撑，并逐渐企稳 反弹。上周一沪指回补缺口后，又再次向下调整，目前中短期均线在上方形成一定压力。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 ...

（来源：东海研究） 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 全球大类资产回顾。12月5日当周，全球股市多数上涨，A股表现相对较好；主要商品期货中铜、原油、铝收涨，黄金收跌；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货 币升值。1）权益方面：创业板指>沪深300指数>深证成指>恒生科技指数>纳指>恒生指数>德国DAX30>道指>日经225>上证指数>标普500>科创50>法国 CAC40>英国富时100。2）当周美债收益率上升影响金价表现，黄金震荡回落；原油受地缘政治冲突升级影响当周小幅震荡上行。3）工业品期货：南华 工业品价格指数上涨，螺纹钢、水泥小幅上涨，炼焦煤、混凝土小幅回落；高炉开工率当周下跌；乘用车当周日均零售7.54万辆，环比上涨25.39%，同比 下跌7.00%；BDI环比上涨6.52%。4）国内利率债收益率涨跌不一，全周中债1Y国债收益率下跌0.01BP至1.4016%，10Y国债收益率上涨0.68BP收至 1.8480%。5）美日国债收益率普遍上行。2Y美债收益率当周上行9BP至3.56%，10Y美债收益率上行12BP至4.14%；10Y日债收益率上涨12.7BP至 1.9390%。6）美元指数收于98 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the key events during the National Day holiday and the outlook for the bond market. It points out that consumption showed a characteristic of "increasing quantity but decreasing price" during the holiday, with tourism and travel recovering steadily. However, the prices of air tickets and hotels declined year-on-year, and the performance of urban travel, box office, and real estate was weak. The sustainability of consumer recovery and the strength of corporate profit repair remain to be seen. The bond market is likely to have a repair opportunity in the fourth quarter as the fundamentals gradually gain more pricing power [2][6]. Group 2: Holiday Consumption and Travel - **Travel Volume Increase**: From October 1 to 8, the daily average cross - regional population flow reached 304 million person - times, a 6.2% year - on - year increase compared to the 7 - day average of the 2024 National Day holiday, hitting a record high. The international passenger flow from September 30 to October 6 increased by 15.3% year - on - year [5][6]. - **Price Decline**: As of October 7, the 7 - day moving average of domestic aviation fuel - included ticket prices decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and business route ticket prices generally declined. The RevPAR of domestic hotels from September 22 to 28 decreased by 4% year - on - year, indicating that profitability has not significantly recovered. The box office revenue and average ticket price from October 1 to 7 decreased by 18% and 10% respectively [6]. Group 3: Global Capital Market Performance - **Stock Market**: During the National Day holiday (October 1 - 7), major developed countries' and Hong Kong stock indices strengthened. The Nikkei 225 led the gains, with the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Tech rising by 0.6% and 1.3% respectively. The healthcare and information technology sectors in both US and Hong Kong markets rose significantly [6]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals and non - ferrous metals performed well. London gold and silver rose by 4.0% and 4.9% respectively, and LME copper, zinc, and aluminum rose by 3.5%, 2.5%, and 1.5% respectively [6]. - **Bond Yields**: Most major countries' long - term bond yields rose, while the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped 2BP to 4.14%, mainly due to the expected weakening of employment data and the "shutdown" of the US government [6]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index rose by 0.8%, the Japanese yen depreciated by 2.7% against the US dollar, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar depreciated slightly by 0.2% [6]. Group 4: Market Transaction Themes - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: The unexpected decline in ADP employment data led to increased expectations of an interest rate cut, and concerns about debt sustainability due to the US government "shutdown" caused gold prices to rise and the US stock market to fluctuate. However, it is expected that the debt ceiling issue will be resolved and will not cause continuous market disturbances [6]. - **Japanese Market Outlook**: With the likely victory of Kōichi Tashiro in the Japanese prime ministerial election, the expectation of a Japanese yen interest rate hike has been postponed. The implementation of active fiscal and monetary policies may lead to a market pattern of a strong Japanese stock market, a weak yen, and weak Japanese bonds [6]. Group 5: Bond Market Outlook - As the fundamentals gradually gain more pricing power in the bond market in the fourth quarter, the bond market is likely to have a repair opportunity. However, the sustainability of consumer recovery and the strength of corporate profit repair need further observation as prices have not fully stabilized [2][6].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Rubber: With stronger raw material prices, improved demand expectations, and positive macro - factors, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Gold: Short - term rebound, but medium - term outlook is still bearish and oscillating. Attention should be paid to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold [2]. - Crude Oil: Expected to oscillate weakly. The outcome of the US - Russia negotiation on August 15 should be watched [4]. - PTA: Follows the crude oil trend and oscillates weakly due to supply pressure and uncertain downstream demand [5]. - Pig: Short - term over - optimism is not advisable, while long - term long positions in the LH2511 contract can be considered. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. - Palm Oil: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - Silver: Oscillates with a bullish bias as the probability of a September interest rate cut remains high [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: There is a continuous tug - of - war between bulls and bears in the market [9]. - Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds: Short - term bullish, but medium - term outlook is bearish and oscillating [9]. - Coking Coal: Short - term price correction space is limited, and subsequent coal production and downstream production cuts should be monitored [10]. - Ferrosilicon: Prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, but there are concerns about the medium - to - long - term fundamentals [10]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12]. - Plastic: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. - Glass: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [14]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices are rising, and Hainan's rubber collection is affected by rainfall. China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and demand expectations are improving. The Fed's potential interest rate cut also boosts the market [1]. Gold - The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict influence the gold market [2]. Crude Oil - The IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts, and the EIA reported an increase in US production and inventory. The US - Russia meeting may impact the geopolitical support for oil prices [4]. PTA - PTA device maintenance has increased, but the operating rate is expected to rise. Downstream polyester demand has uncertainties due to profit issues [5]. Pig - Pig prices are rising steadily with regional differences. Demand remains weak, and investment strategies vary in the short and long term [6]. Palm Oil - The USDA report shows stable production and export forecasts, with a slight decrease in consumption and inventory. Market sentiment is bullish in the short term [7]. Silver - Fed officials are trying to cool the interest - rate cut expectations, but a September cut is still likely, leading to a bullish outlook for silver [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply shortages may drive prices up, but demand - side substitution and other factors restrict price increases [9]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are falling, and the market may rebound in the short term, but the medium - term outlook is bearish [9]. Coking Coal - The production and inventory of washed coal are increasing, and downstream demand has support, but the market is in a wait - and - see state [10]. Ferrosilicon - The cost is supported, but production is increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand relationship may become looser [10]. Methanol - Port inventory is accumulating, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Plastic - Supply pressure may ease, and the market is expected to oscillate with weak cost support [13]. Glass - Production is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is rising, with the market expected to oscillate [14].