Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the key events during the National Day holiday and the outlook for the bond market. It points out that consumption showed a characteristic of "increasing quantity but decreasing price" during the holiday, with tourism and travel recovering steadily. However, the prices of air tickets and hotels declined year-on-year, and the performance of urban travel, box office, and real estate was weak. The sustainability of consumer recovery and the strength of corporate profit repair remain to be seen. The bond market is likely to have a repair opportunity in the fourth quarter as the fundamentals gradually gain more pricing power [2][6]. Group 2: Holiday Consumption and Travel - **Travel Volume Increase**: From October 1 to 8, the daily average cross - regional population flow reached 304 million person - times, a 6.2% year - on - year increase compared to the 7 - day average of the 2024 National Day holiday, hitting a record high. The international passenger flow from September 30 to October 6 increased by 15.3% year - on - year [5][6]. - **Price Decline**: As of October 7, the 7 - day moving average of domestic aviation fuel - included ticket prices decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and business route ticket prices generally declined. The RevPAR of domestic hotels from September 22 to 28 decreased by 4% year - on - year, indicating that profitability has not significantly recovered. The box office revenue and average ticket price from October 1 to 7 decreased by 18% and 10% respectively [6]. Group 3: Global Capital Market Performance - **Stock Market**: During the National Day holiday (October 1 - 7), major developed countries' and Hong Kong stock indices strengthened. The Nikkei 225 led the gains, with the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Tech rising by 0.6% and 1.3% respectively. The healthcare and information technology sectors in both US and Hong Kong markets rose significantly [6]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals and non - ferrous metals performed well. London gold and silver rose by 4.0% and 4.9% respectively, and LME copper, zinc, and aluminum rose by 3.5%, 2.5%, and 1.5% respectively [6]. - **Bond Yields**: Most major countries' long - term bond yields rose, while the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped 2BP to 4.14%, mainly due to the expected weakening of employment data and the "shutdown" of the US government [6]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index rose by 0.8%, the Japanese yen depreciated by 2.7% against the US dollar, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar depreciated slightly by 0.2% [6]. Group 4: Market Transaction Themes - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: The unexpected decline in ADP employment data led to increased expectations of an interest rate cut, and concerns about debt sustainability due to the US government "shutdown" caused gold prices to rise and the US stock market to fluctuate. However, it is expected that the debt ceiling issue will be resolved and will not cause continuous market disturbances [6]. - **Japanese Market Outlook**: With the likely victory of Kōichi Tashiro in the Japanese prime ministerial election, the expectation of a Japanese yen interest rate hike has been postponed. The implementation of active fiscal and monetary policies may lead to a market pattern of a strong Japanese stock market, a weak yen, and weak Japanese bonds [6]. Group 5: Bond Market Outlook - As the fundamentals gradually gain more pricing power in the bond market in the fourth quarter, the bond market is likely to have a repair opportunity. However, the sustainability of consumer recovery and the strength of corporate profit repair need further observation as prices have not fully stabilized [2][6].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Rubber: With stronger raw material prices, improved demand expectations, and positive macro - factors, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Gold: Short - term rebound, but medium - term outlook is still bearish and oscillating. Attention should be paid to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold [2]. - Crude Oil: Expected to oscillate weakly. The outcome of the US - Russia negotiation on August 15 should be watched [4]. - PTA: Follows the crude oil trend and oscillates weakly due to supply pressure and uncertain downstream demand [5]. - Pig: Short - term over - optimism is not advisable, while long - term long positions in the LH2511 contract can be considered. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. - Palm Oil: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [7]. - Silver: Oscillates with a bullish bias as the probability of a September interest rate cut remains high [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: There is a continuous tug - of - war between bulls and bears in the market [9]. - Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds: Short - term bullish, but medium - term outlook is bearish and oscillating [9]. - Coking Coal: Short - term price correction space is limited, and subsequent coal production and downstream production cuts should be monitored [10]. - Ferrosilicon: Prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, but there are concerns about the medium - to - long - term fundamentals [10]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12]. - Plastic: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. - Glass: Expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [14]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices are rising, and Hainan's rubber collection is affected by rainfall. China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased, and demand expectations are improving. The Fed's potential interest rate cut also boosts the market [1]. Gold - The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict influence the gold market [2]. Crude Oil - The IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts, and the EIA reported an increase in US production and inventory. The US - Russia meeting may impact the geopolitical support for oil prices [4]. PTA - PTA device maintenance has increased, but the operating rate is expected to rise. Downstream polyester demand has uncertainties due to profit issues [5]. Pig - Pig prices are rising steadily with regional differences. Demand remains weak, and investment strategies vary in the short and long term [6]. Palm Oil - The USDA report shows stable production and export forecasts, with a slight decrease in consumption and inventory. Market sentiment is bullish in the short term [7]. Silver - Fed officials are trying to cool the interest - rate cut expectations, but a September cut is still likely, leading to a bullish outlook for silver [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply shortages may drive prices up, but demand - side substitution and other factors restrict price increases [9]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are falling, and the market may rebound in the short term, but the medium - term outlook is bearish [9]. Coking Coal - The production and inventory of washed coal are increasing, and downstream demand has support, but the market is in a wait - and - see state [10]. Ferrosilicon - The cost is supported, but production is increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand relationship may become looser [10]. Methanol - Port inventory is accumulating, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Plastic - Supply pressure may ease, and the market is expected to oscillate with weak cost support [13]. Glass - Production is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is rising, with the market expected to oscillate [14].