Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, focusing on "consolidating the foundation and making comprehensive efforts" [1][6][7] - The overall economic outlook is positive, with key economic indicators performing well and a strong emphasis on maintaining economic recovery momentum [1][9][10] Economic Policy - The meeting highlights the need for macroeconomic policies to be "continuous, stable, flexible, and predictable," aiming for sustained growth and maximizing policy effects [2][10][11] - Emphasis is placed on implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic stability [11][12] Consumption and Investment - The meeting stresses the importance of expanding service consumption and stimulating effective investment, particularly in the context of weak fixed asset investment growth [3][12] - The "old-for-new" policy has already released some elasticity in durable goods consumption, and there is a call to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [3][12] Supply-Side Policies - The meeting calls for deepening the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition order, while also addressing issues of local government debt and hidden debts [4][13] - Policies will focus on promoting high-quality development and addressing overcapacity in key industries [4][12] Capital Market - The meeting emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in capital market recovery [5][14] - There is a focus on ensuring that the capital market functions effectively and supports long-term investment [5][14] Transition from 14th to 15th Five-Year Plan - The meeting outlines the need for a smooth transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on urban renewal and managing hidden debts [5][14] - The importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in achieving long-term economic goals is highlighted [7][8]

广发宏观周度述评（第12期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-11期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 对中期影响深远的三个政策线索。 4月25日政治局会议明确指出"外部冲击影响加大"及"要强化底线思维"，并部署了一系列稳增长具体举措。从"加紧实 施"这一表述来看，目前稳增长具有一定的紧迫性，后续政策节奏有望加快。 值得注意的是，除了短期视角，本轮政策稳增长举措中也展现出一些新的中期线索。如去年底中央经济工作会议指出的，"实践中，我们不断深化对经济工作的规 律性认识"；以及3月5日国新办吹风会解读政府工作报告时指出的，"充分体现了9月26日中央政治局会议以来，党中央对宏观调控思路的创新"。 线索一：服务类消费可能成为新的风口。3月5日国新办发布会指出本轮稳增长"打破了消费是慢变量的常规"；而从本次政治局会议精神来看，政策侧重点可能已从 商品消费进一步扩展向服务类消费。在耐用消费品的政策红利释放之后，服务类消费空间更大。[1]2024年全国居民人均服务性消费支出占居民人均消费支出比重 达46.1%，而且部分商品消费是服务消费的场景带动的。要发展服务类消费，那么重要的不仅是有形商品创新，还包括应用场景和商业模式创新。[2]如《求 ...