内外兼修——2026 年宏观经济与资本市场展望 20251228 摘要 2026 年全球制造业上行趋势及美联储降息将支撑中国出口，AI 投资成 为资本开支亮点，共同推动出口需求攀升，但需关注美国库存周期变化。 中国应对美国关税经验丰富，关税对出口影响减弱，当前产能出海策略 聚焦"一带一路"，补充品牌海外渗透率，带动国内资本品和中间品出 口，对国内经济具积极意义。 房地产市场深度调整，投资降幅收窄，但房价下跌和居民资产负债表恶 化可能抑制消费，需警惕房地产市场走势及其潜在风险。 耐用品补贴政策对消费拉动效果减弱，提高居民收入、释放教育、文娱、 育幼、医疗和养老等服务类消费潜力是扩大内需的关键。 广义财政收支面临困境，地方政府债务风险增加，需通过中央政府举债 加杠杆对冲下行压力，避免经济硬着陆，并进行财税改革和财富再分配。 2026 年中国财政策略应保持保量提质态势，中央主导稳增长，地方聚 焦化解债务，广义财政支出增速预计小幅退坡至 4%-5%。 2035 年前 GDP 平均增速需保持在 4.17%左右，2026 年短期经济增长 目标可能小幅调整，出口和服务消费有望成为经济增长的重要支柱，优 先配置权益类资产和与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing a tug-of-war between the increase in rigid expenses due to the reduction of purchase tax exemptions and the continuation of national subsidy policies like "trade-in" programs, although details remain uncertain [1][14]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - Starting January 1, 2026, the purchase tax for new energy vehicles will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction, with the current tax rate of 10% effectively becoming 5%, and the exemption cap dropping from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan [2][15]. - For a new energy vehicle priced at 300,000 yuan, the purchase tax will be 15,000 yuan, while for a vehicle priced at 500,000 yuan, the tax will be 35,000 yuan after applying the maximum exemption [2][15]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Sales Trends - Despite the proactive measures by over 20 automakers to introduce "tax coverage" policies, the industry remains cautious about the fourth-quarter market outlook, with expectations of no significant "tail effect" as seen in previous years [2][6]. - In December 2023, the retail sales of passenger vehicles dropped to 297,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32% and a month-on-month decrease of 8% [3][16]. - The anticipated "tail effect" has turned into a "flat tail," with November retail sales of 2.225 million units showing a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 1.1% [8][22]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The uncertainty surrounding the continuation of national and local subsidies has led consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, impacting immediate purchasing decisions [7][21]. - The introduction of "tax coverage" policies by automakers has inadvertently altered consumer buying patterns, leading to a decrease in immediate demand for vehicle purchases [6][20]. Group 4: Battery Supply and Demand - The demand for batteries is intensifying, with automakers scrambling to secure supplies due to production constraints caused by battery shortages [9][23]. - The cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries reached 578.0 GWh from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.4% [9][23]. - The battery supply is facing pressure from both the automotive sector and the rapidly growing energy storage market, which is diverting production capacity [10][24]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to see a growth rate of approximately 3% to 5% for the year, with a cautious consensus forming around the potential for a 3% growth in 2026 as policies gradually phase out [12][26]. - Future opportunities are anticipated to arise from structural adjustments and value exploration, particularly in lower-tier markets and service consumption [13][27].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing a tug-of-war between increased costs due to the reduction of purchase tax exemptions and the continuation of national subsidies for trade-ins, leading to uncertainty in consumer and manufacturer decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - Starting January 1, 2026, the purchase tax for new energy vehicles (NEVs) will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction, with the current tax rate of 10% effectively becoming 5% for consumers [1]. - The maximum exemption limit will decrease from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan, impacting the tax burden on consumers purchasing NEVs priced at 300,000 yuan and 500,000 yuan [1]. - The Central Economic Work Conference has confirmed the optimization of policies including the continuation of trade-in subsidies, setting a foundation for the extension of current national subsidies beyond 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Sales Trends - Despite proactive measures from over 20 car manufacturers to offer purchase tax guarantees, the market remains cautious about the fourth-quarter performance, with expectations of a lack of significant sales spikes compared to previous years [4][5]. - Data from the China Passenger Car Association indicates a 32% year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger cars in early December, with a 17% drop in the NEV segment [4][6]. - The anticipated "tail effect" in sales, typically seen in the fourth quarter, is not materializing as expected, with November sales down 8.1% year-on-year [5][6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The certainty of tax reductions has not translated into expected consumer purchasing behavior, as many are opting to wait for clearer subsidy details before making decisions [6][9]. - The introduction of tax guarantee policies by manufacturers has inadvertently led to a more cautious consumer approach, suppressing immediate purchasing demand [5][6]. - The automotive market is witnessing a shift in focus towards lower-priced vehicles, particularly in the 200,000 yuan and below segment, as consumers become more price-sensitive [5]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Battery Demand - The demand for batteries is intensifying as manufacturers scramble to secure supplies, with some companies facing production delays due to battery shortages [8][9]. - The cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries reached 578.0 GWh from January to October, reflecting a 42.4% year-on-year increase [8]. - The upcoming reduction in purchase tax is driving a surge in demand for batteries, leading to potential supply constraints as manufacturers rush to meet the concentrated demand [9][10]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - Predictions for 2026 indicate a slowdown in the growth rate of domestic passenger car sales, with estimates suggesting a decline from 8% in 2025 to -2% in 2026 [13]. - The market is expected to shift focus towards structural adjustments and value extraction, with opportunities emerging in underdeveloped markets and service-oriented consumption [13][14]. - The automotive industry is likely to face increased pressure to differentiate based on product functionality, performance, and pricing as market dynamics evolve [14].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, focusing on "consolidating the foundation and making comprehensive efforts" [1][6][7] - The overall economic outlook is positive, with key economic indicators performing well and a strong emphasis on maintaining economic recovery momentum [1][9][10] Economic Policy - The meeting highlights the need for macroeconomic policies to be "continuous, stable, flexible, and predictable," aiming for sustained growth and maximizing policy effects [2][10][11] - Emphasis is placed on implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic stability [11][12] Consumption and Investment - The meeting stresses the importance of expanding service consumption and stimulating effective investment, particularly in the context of weak fixed asset investment growth [3][12] - The "old-for-new" policy has already released some elasticity in durable goods consumption, and there is a call to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [3][12] Supply-Side Policies - The meeting calls for deepening the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition order, while also addressing issues of local government debt and hidden debts [4][13] - Policies will focus on promoting high-quality development and addressing overcapacity in key industries [4][12] Capital Market - The meeting emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in capital market recovery [5][14] - There is a focus on ensuring that the capital market functions effectively and supports long-term investment [5][14] Transition from 14th to 15th Five-Year Plan - The meeting outlines the need for a smooth transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on urban renewal and managing hidden debts [5][14] - The importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in achieving long-term economic goals is highlighted [7][8]

广发宏观周度述评（第12期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-11期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 对中期影响深远的三个政策线索。 4月25日政治局会议明确指出"外部冲击影响加大"及"要强化底线思维"，并部署了一系列稳增长具体举措。从"加紧实 施"这一表述来看，目前稳增长具有一定的紧迫性，后续政策节奏有望加快。 值得注意的是，除了短期视角，本轮政策稳增长举措中也展现出一些新的中期线索。如去年底中央经济工作会议指出的，"实践中，我们不断深化对经济工作的规 律性认识"；以及3月5日国新办吹风会解读政府工作报告时指出的，"充分体现了9月26日中央政治局会议以来，党中央对宏观调控思路的创新"。 线索一：服务类消费可能成为新的风口。3月5日国新办发布会指出本轮稳增长"打破了消费是慢变量的常规"；而从本次政治局会议精神来看，政策侧重点可能已从 商品消费进一步扩展向服务类消费。在耐用消费品的政策红利释放之后，服务类消费空间更大。[1]2024年全国居民人均服务性消费支出占居民人均消费支出比重 达46.1%，而且部分商品消费是服务消费的场景带动的。要发展服务类消费，那么重要的不仅是有形商品创新，还包括应用场景和商业模式创新。[2]如《求 ...