铝：国内新能源汽车销量占比超50%叠加海外能源价格续涨，铝价震荡走强。截至11月 14日，本周LME铝报收2,859美元/吨，周环比上涨1.41%；沪铝报收21,840元/吨，周环比上 涨0.99%。供应端，本周中国电解铝行业无增减产行为，理论开工产能维持4413.50万吨；需 求端，本周铝板带箔企业产能利用率环比上升0.03pct，铝棒产能利用率环比上升0.5pct，本 周电解铝的理论需求有所上升，本周电解铝社会库存环升0.45%至62.99万吨。本周纽约天然 气期指续涨13.83%推动海外铝价上行，国内受到10月份新能源汽车月度新车销量首次超过 了汽车新车总销量的50%的消息主动跟涨，当下沪铝持续增仓上行，短期铝价预计维持震荡 偏强走势，后续进一步观察海外能源价格扰动即需求落地情况。 黄金：美国政府重启缓解流动性担忧，降息预期左右贵金属短期价格走向。截至11月14 日，COMEX黄金收盘价为4084.40美元/盎司，周环比上涨1.91%，SHFE黄金收盘价为953.20 元/克，周环比上涨3.47%。美国时间11月12日，美国总统特朗普签署了国会两院通过的一项 联邦政府临时拨款法案，结束了43天的史上最长 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend. Currently, domestic and international macro - factors are mixed. Concerns about the continuous shutdown of the US federal government, the decline in China's export growth, and geopolitical factors will continue to affect the commodity market, especially the crude oil market [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Review**: This week, domestic commodities fluctuated. Industrial products fluctuated, and agricultural products declined from high levels. The US government shutdown in the first half - week led to risk - aversion sentiment, dragging down global asset prices, while the fall of the US dollar index in the second half - week relieved market pressure and most commodities rebounded [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: The continuous shutdown of the US federal government may impact people's livelihood and society. On October 31, the SRF injected huge liquidity into the market. In October, US private enterprises added 42,000 jobs, the ISM services PMI reached 52.4, but the non - farm employment decreased by 9,100. The eurozone's October composite PMI rose to 52.5, and the service industry PMI reached 53, indicating a stable economy, which may support the European Central Bank to suspend interest rate cuts [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: In October, China's exports were $305.4 billion with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.1%, and imports were $215.3 billion with a growth rate of 1%. The decline in export growth was affected by holidays, high - base effects, and a temporary callback in external demand. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders on October 30 eased trade frictions, and port shipments increased significantly from October 26 to November 2. The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October, with a net investment of 20 billion yuan, a net investment of 200 billion yuan in medium - term lending facilities, and a net investment of 400 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases. A 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation will be carried out on November 5, which will support the macro - economy [3]. - **Commodity Outlook**: The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend due to mixed domestic and international macro - factors, including the US government shutdown, China's export situation, and geopolitical factors [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Economic Data**: The ADP data showed that US private enterprises added 42,000 jobs in October, the largest increase since July 2025. The 10 - month ISM services PMI was 52.4, a new eight - month high. However, the non - farm employment decreased by 9,100, leading to selling in US stocks and cryptocurrencies. The SOFR rate soared 18 basis points to 4.22% [3][10]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The eurozone's October composite PMI reached 52.5, and the service industry PMI was 53, a 17 - month high. The economy showed stable expansion, with the service industry performing better than manufacturing, and significant economic differentiation among countries. This may support the European Central Bank to suspend interest rate cuts [3]. - **OPEC+ Situation**: On November 2, OPEC+ announced production plans for 2026, with WTI showing certain changes in production and price expectations [21]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Foreign Trade Data**: In October, China's exports were $305.4 billion with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.1%, and imports were $215.3 billion with a growth rate of 1%. The decline in export growth was affected by holidays, high - base effects, and a temporary callback in external demand. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders eased trade frictions, and port shipments increased [26]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October, with a net investment of 20 billion yuan, a net investment of 200 billion yuan in medium - term lending facilities, and a net investment of 400 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases. A 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation will be carried out on November 5, which will support the macro - economy [29]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of November 7, the operating rate of PTA in the polyester industry chain was 76%, and the POY operating rate was 90%. The national blast furnace operating rate (247 enterprises) and the operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain showed certain trends [32]. - **Automobile Data**: In October, the sales volume and year - on - year growth rate of automobile manufacturers showed certain changes, with different growth rates in different periods [41]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: As of November 7, the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices showed certain trends, with price increases of 2.16% and 0.78% respectively [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, concerns about liquidity due to the US government shutdown and negative feedback from high copper prices have caused copper prices to fall from their highs. However, in the long - term, the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease, and emerging consumption such as energy storage and AI has become a growth point. It is still recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Long - term non - US supply is generally tight, and after the inventory declines later, inter - period positive spreads (buying near - term and selling far - term) can be considered. After the import ratio rebounds, there are also opportunities for inter - market positive spreads [7][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Macro - aspect**: The record - high shutdown of the US government has increased short - term liquidity concerns in the market, and the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut has led to a rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on copper prices. But in the long - run, the expectation of US monetary easing remains unchanged, and the short - term liquidity problem will be resolved after the government reopens [7] - **Copper Mine**: In September, China imported 258.7 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 2,263.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. Supply - side disturbances in copper mines have increased, with the production of Grasberg, QB Phase II, etc. falling short of expectations. On November 7, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 42.04 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.11 US dollars per ton from the previous period [7][30] - **Scrap Copper**: As of Friday, the refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,988 yuan per ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises this week was 27.57%, up 4.77 percentage points from last week and 2.65 percentage points year - on - year. Due to the uncertainty of the tax refund policy, most recycled copper rod enterprises in Jiangxi have stopped production, resulting in a strong demand for taxed scrap copper raw materials, and most of the taxed scrap copper raw materials in Ningbo and Guangdong are transported to Jiangxi. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 4.18%. In September, China imported 21.23 million tons of scrap copper, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 169.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53% [38][42] - **Refined Copper**: In October, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 9.63%. The cumulative increase was 11.96%. SMM expects that in November, electrolytic copper production will decrease by 0.4 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 8.21%. The cumulative year - on - year increase is 11.62%. In December, after the concentrated maintenance in October and November, production may increase slightly, but some smelters have a low willingness to increase production due to high copper prices [5][48] - **Consumption**: Domestically, demand has weakened marginally. The real estate market continues to drag down the market, and the production schedules of photovoltaic and air - conditioning industries have declined significantly. The main support for the market in the later stage comes from orders from the two power grids, the automotive industry, and energy - storage batteries. Downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, but there is an increase in purchases around 85,000 yuan per ton [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China increased by 0.32 million tons to 20.33 million tons compared with Monday, and increased by 2.07 million tons compared with last Thursday, showing a continuous 5 - week weekly inventory accumulation. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.03 million tons to 8.82 million tons. As of November 7, the LME inventory decreased to 13.5 million tons, but it is expected to increase later. The COMEX inventory has increased to over 35 million tons, and the COMEX - LME price difference is maintained at 3% - 4% [10][14][17] - **Price Difference and Ratio**: The COMEX - LME price difference is maintained at 3% - 4%, and a large amount of copper from South America is still being shipped to the US. It is recommended to consider inter - period positive spreads (buying near - term and selling far - term) after the inventory declines later. After the previous export window opened, the LME inventory is expected to increase periodically, and the import ratio may rebound slightly. After the ratio rebounds, there are opportunities for inter - market positive spreads [10] 3.2 Copper Price Trends in 2025 - Throughout the year, copper prices have been affected by multiple factors such as US trade policies, production plan adjustments of major mines, and supply - side disturbances. For example, in March, the US imposed a 25% tariff on copper, which drove up copper prices; in April, due to the US imposing reciprocal tariffs globally, copper prices plummeted panic - stricken; in September, Grasberg adjusted its production plan [12][13] 3.3 Copper Market Data - **Copper Concentrate Market**: In August 2025, the global copper concentrate production decreased. In Peru, the copper production from January to August was about 1.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In August, the copper production was 419.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.05%. In Chile, due to a collapse accident in a new mining area of the world's largest underground copper mine in July, the state - owned copper company Codelco lowered its annual copper production forecast [31][32][36] - **Scrap Copper Market**: As of Friday, the refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,988 yuan per ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises this week was 27.57%, up 4.77 percentage points from last week and 2.65 percentage points year - on - year. Due to the uncertainty of the tax refund policy, most recycled copper rod enterprises in Jiangxi have stopped production, resulting in a strong demand for taxed scrap copper raw materials, and most of the taxed scrap copper raw materials in Ningbo and Guangdong are transported to Jiangxi [38] - **Crude Copper Market**: In July 2025, the crude copper production was 1.0585 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 6.9996 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.76%. In September, China imported 50,100 tons of anode copper, a year - on - year decrease of 32.84%. From January to September, the cumulative import of anode copper was 578,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.58% [44][46] - **Domestic Copper Supply**: In October, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 9.63%. The cumulative increase was 11.96%. SMM expects that in November, electrolytic copper production will decrease by 0.4 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 8.21%. The cumulative year - on - year increase is 11.62%. From January to September, China imported 2.5416 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.06%; the export of refined copper was 489,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.15% [48][52] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: In October, the operating rates of refined - copper rod, copper tube, enameled wire, and copper cable enterprises all decreased month - on - month, but are expected to increase slightly in November. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased in October and is expected to continue to rise in November. The operating rate of SMM's copper plate and strip enterprises decreased slightly in October and is expected to increase slightly in November [58] - **Consumption Areas** - **Air - Conditioning Consumption**: In September 2025, China's domestic air - conditioning production was 10.567 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%; sales were 10.884 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. In November, the production schedule of domestic air - conditioners was 12.76 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7% [62] - **Automobile Consumption**: In September, automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September, automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. From January to September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% [66] - **Power Grid Investment**: From January to September 2025, China's power grid investment reached 437.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%, but the growth rate dropped significantly compared with that from January to August [69] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to September 2025, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing in China was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the housing completion area was 311 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [70][74] - **Overseas Data**: In the US, the sales of newly - built houses and the number of newly - started private residential buildings, as well as automobile sales, and in Europe, the registration volume of passenger cars all show certain trends and changes [76][77] - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: From January to September 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 79.39GW or 49.34%. From January to September, the new wind - power installed capacity was 61.09GW, a year - on - year increase of 21.97GW or 56.16% [80] - **Global New - Energy Vehicle Sales**: In August 2025, the global new - energy vehicle sales were 1.7134 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.97%. From January to September, the new - energy vehicle sales in the US were 1.2903 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.01% [87] 3.4 Industry News and Macro Data - In October, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China decreased month - on - month. The CSPT group did not set a TC guidance price for the fourth quarter in its third - quarter meeting. Indonesia granted Amman Mining a 400,000 - ton copper - concentrate export quota. The US and euro - zone manufacturing PMIs showed different trends. Anglo Asian Mining signed a sales contract for copper concentrates. Glencore plans to shut down a smelter in Canada. Codelco lowered its annual copper production forecast. The US government shutdown has affected market liquidity. The US employment market has shown signs of stabilization. The US included copper in its new critical - mineral list. The Fed's December interest - rate cut direction is unclear. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia [88]

Core Insights - The market is increasingly concerned about liquidity, leading traders to record levels of activity in a specific segment of the U.S. interest rate futures market, betting on potential changes in overnight loan rate spreads if the Federal Reserve takes action to alleviate financing pressures [1][2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group reported that the trading volume of futures related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the federal funds rate reached historical peaks, with over 400,000 contracts traded for the one-month SOFR-federal funds basis [1] - The current SOFR is 4.27%, while the effective federal funds rate is 4.12%, indicating a spread of 15 basis points [1] Group 1 - Recent market pressure signals have led some Wall Street strategists to believe that the Federal Reserve will take action to improve market liquidity, although no measures were announced by Chairman Jerome Powell [2] - The lack of direct action from the Federal Reserve regarding repo rates initially caused disappointment in the market, resulting in a new wave of activity in SOFR-federal funds basis trading, particularly for November contracts [2] - Traders are repositioning in anticipation of a potential policy shift from the Federal Reserve, while also aiming to mitigate risks amid ongoing financing pressures [2] Group 2 - The liquidity pressures are expected to persist into November, driven by the continued reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the U.S. Treasury's issuance of more short-term debt, which will absorb significant cash from the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a decline, with tin futures showing a slight upward trend, indicating mixed signals in supply and demand dynamics [1] Supply Side - The operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly decreased by 0.41% to 59.23%, although it has significantly rebounded from previous lows [1] - The mining sector remains tight, but the reduction in refined tin production is less than expected, and the issuance of mining licenses is expected to lead to a more relaxed supply situation in the future [1] Consumption Side - The photovoltaic industry is facing internal competition policies, leading to a lack of trading activity, while traditional consumption sectors are entering a seasonal downturn, making the overall outlook pessimistic [1] Inventory - Social inventory of tin ingots has slightly decreased, with a total of 10,392 tons reported as of August 15, 2025, an increase of 114 tons from the previous week [1] Market Outlook - The fundamental contradictions remain due to the slow recovery of raw material tin mines and recurring concerns over overseas liquidity [1] - The LME's low inventory reduction trend has not changed, and the recent strengthening of the LME's monthly structure indicates high concentration of warehouse receipts, supporting a slight upward shift in domestic and foreign tin prices [1] - Short-term expectations suggest that Shanghai tin will follow LME trends with a strong oscillation, with continued attention on the structure of LME tin and the concentration of warehouse receipts [1]