证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 08 月 25 日 汽车 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《汽车行业周报：小鹏、大众 CEA 架构覆盖燃 油车，或带来显著增量》2025-08-18 《汽车行业周报：国资车企集团改革成效或将 渐显》2025-08-11 《汽车行业周报：上海牌照发放加速 Robotaxi 商业化》2025-08-04 《汽车行业周报：看好 Robotaxi 与 Optimus 驱动特斯拉估值重构》2025-07-29 《汽车行业周报：理想 i8 或打开纯电产品序列 增长空间》2025-07-21 吴迪 S0820525010001 021-32229888-25523 wudi@ajzq.com 徐姝婧 S0820124090004 021-32229888-25517 xushujing@ajzq.com 行业及产业 看好央企高端电动智能品牌借力起势 资料来源：Wind，爱建证券研究所 (取 2025/8/18-2025/8/22 行情) 表 2：A 股申万汽车二级子行业指数行情表现（单位:%） ——汽车行业周报（ ...

Macro and Strategy - The report analyzes the current bull market in the ChiNext index, noting that it has risen by 21.69% year-to-date as of August 18, 2025, with comparisons to previous bull markets in 2015, 2013, and 2020, which had significantly higher gains [8][3] - The report highlights the differences between the bull markets of 2013-2015, characterized by broad-based gains, and the more structural gains seen from 2018-2021, where a lower percentage of stocks saw significant increases [8] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing weekly report indicates that the price of boxboard and corrugated paper continues to rise, with July furniture retail sales in the U.S. increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [3][10] - Domestic prices for hardwood pulp have risen slightly, while cultural paper and white cardboard prices remain under pressure due to supply and demand dynamics [9][10] - The report notes that China's furniture exports increased by 3.0% year-on-year in July, with expectations for recovery in the export chain due to recent tariff extensions and upcoming U.S. interest rate cuts [10][11] Automotive Industry - The automotive industry report indicates that vehicle production and sales in July 2025 were 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7% [13] - The report highlights a strong pre-sale for the new Tank 500 model, indicating robust consumer interest [13] - The report suggests a focus on the performance of the automotive sector's mid-year results, with a notable increase in wholesale vehicle sales in early August [14] Copper Industry - The report on Tongling Nonferrous Metals indicates a 34% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, despite a revenue increase of 6.4% to 76.1 billion yuan [21][22] - The company has become the largest copper smelting company globally, with a production capacity of 2.2 million tons following the commissioning of a new copper smelting project [22] - The report anticipates a significant increase in copper production capacity with the upcoming commissioning of the Mirador copper mine's second phase [23] Gold Industry - The report on Shanjin International shows a 42.14% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 48.43% [24] - The report notes that the company is on track to meet its annual gold production target of at least 8 tons, despite a slight decline in production in the first half [24][25] - The report highlights the potential for future growth through acquisitions and new projects, particularly in Namibia and other regions [25] Electronic and Battery Materials - The report on Shengquan Group indicates a 51.19% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in advanced electronic materials and battery materials [31][32] - The company has expanded its market share in synthetic resin and advanced materials, with significant growth in sales volume [32][33] - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing development of new products and applications in the biomass sector, with new projects expected to launch in the near future [34] Medical Aesthetics - The report on Aimeike shows a 21.59% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit down by 29.57% [35][36] - The company is facing increased competition in the medical aesthetics market, but it is expanding its product line through acquisitions and new product development [36][37] - The report suggests that while short-term challenges exist, the long-term growth potential remains strong due to increasing consumer demand for medical aesthetics [37] Beverage Industry - The report on Yanghe Distillery indicates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on maintaining pricing power and controlling production volume [38]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the ChiNext Index turning positive, indicating a recovery in the growth sector [1] - The Tianhong ChiNext ETF (159977) rose by 0.21%, with significant gains in component stocks such as robots, which increased over 14%, and Shenghong Technology, which rose over 6% to reach a new high [1] - The ChiNext Index, which consists of 100 representative companies, reflects the operational status of the ChiNext market, with a high proportion of emerging industries and high-tech enterprises [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China and seven departments issued guidelines to support the integration of the digital economy with the real economy, emphasizing the use of technology to enhance efficiency in manufacturing, especially for SMEs [2] - Current market conditions are favorable, with stable domestic policies leading to positive fundamental expectations, suggesting that after structural adjustments, the market will continue to trend upward [2] - Key sectors to focus on in August include AI applications, AI hardware, non-bank financials, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a long-term view on the progress of social intelligence and the carbon neutrality industry chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese electric intelligent vehicle industry is undergoing a historic transformation driven by electrification, intelligence, and globalization, facing both opportunities and pressures from market restructuring and regulatory changes [1]. Group 1: Industry Evolution and Competition - The next five years are seen as a critical elimination phase for Chinese car manufacturers, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles expected to rise from 50% to 80% or even 90% [3]. - The market is anticipated to consolidate from around 70 sub-brands to a few major brands, potentially leaving only a handful of sub-brands [3]. - The relationship between technology and policy is crucial, with regulatory frameworks playing a significant role in the promotion of new technologies [5]. Group 2: AI and Differentiation - High-performance chips are identified as the core differentiator for car manufacturers in terms of functionality, performance, and safety in the AI era [8]. - The automotive industry is expected to evolve into a robotics sector over the next 10 to 20 years, with AI-driven vehicles experiencing a growth rate 100 times that of traditional vehicles [8][10]. - Companies must increase R&D investments and integrate AI into their operations to remain competitive, as the value of self-developed technologies will surpass that of integrated solutions [10]. Group 3: Integration of Robotics and Vehicles - The future of automotive and robotics is seen as a convergence, with both sectors becoming embodied intelligent electric companies [13]. - Companies with full-stack self-research capabilities are better positioned to develop robotics, as approximately 70% of their capabilities overlap [15]. - The current state of the robotics industry is comparable to the early stages of the new energy vehicle sector, with most companies striving to reach L3 capabilities [15]. Group 4: Flying Cars and Urban Mobility - The development of flying cars is progressing, with the first model expected to be mass-produced by 2026, potentially becoming a leading manufacturer in the sector [18]. - Flying cars face unique challenges, including safety and quality standards that exceed those of traditional vehicles, with a target safety standard of 10^-8 [20]. - The integration of automotive and aviation technologies is crucial for the successful development of flying cars, with significant cost reductions expected due to scale effects [20]. Group 5: International Expansion Strategies - Chinese car manufacturers are advised to adopt a KD model for initial overseas expansion, gradually transitioning to SKD and CKD models to comply with local regulations [23]. - Learning from the entry strategies of foreign companies into China could provide valuable insights for Chinese firms looking to expand internationally [25]. Group 6: Supply Chain and Industry Dynamics - The payment cycle issues within the automotive supply chain are expected to improve due to industry self-regulation and collaborative efforts [27]. - Long-term sustainability in the tech-driven automotive sector requires reasonable profit margins to support R&D investments [27].

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [1][4][5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the rise of domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components driven by electric and intelligent trends [3][12][24] - The automotive industry is transitioning into a technological era, with significant advancements in electrification, intelligence, and connectivity [12][13] - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 2% for the domestic automotive market over the next 20 years, with a strong focus on electric vehicles [13][21] Monthly Production and Sales Data - In March, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 1.94 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% and a month-on-month increase of 40.2% [1] - Cumulative sales from January to March totaled 5.127 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [1] - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in March reached 1.128 million units, up 35.5% year-on-year and 35.9% month-on-month [1] Weekly Data - From April 14 to April 20, the number of new passenger vehicle registrations in China was 387,000, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% and a month-on-month increase of 12.1% [2] - Cumulative registrations for April (up to April 20) reached 732,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2] Market Performance - The CS automotive index increased by 4.98% during the week of April 21 to April 25, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.6 percentage points [2] - The year-to-date increase for the CS automotive index is 6.99% [2] Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Leap Motor (9863.HK) is rated "Outperform the Market" with an estimated EPS of -0.05 for 2025 and a PE ratio of -988 [4] - Geely (0175.HK) is rated "Outperform the Market" with an estimated EPS of 1.36 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 12 [4] - Xpeng Motors (9868.HK) is rated "Outperform the Market" with an estimated EPS of -0.84 for 2025 and a PE ratio of -93 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components, particularly in the context of electric and intelligent vehicles [3][12][24] - Specific recommendations include Leap Motor, Xpeng Motors, Geely, and Yutong Bus for complete vehicles, and companies like Coboda, Huayang Group, and Junsheng Electronics for intelligent components [3][12][24]

Group 1: Traditional Consumer Sector Insights - The initiation of traditional consumer market rallies often stems from large-scale economic stimulus or recovery in the real estate cycle, which boosts demand expectations, alongside technological innovation and consumption upgrades that open growth space for the industry [3][8] - Historical examples show that comprehensive economic stimulus supports a broad recovery in consumption, with policy-driven sectors like automobiles and home appliances rebounding first, while policy withdrawal poses potential risks [8][9] - The real estate cycle significantly impacts consumer demand, particularly in sectors like liquor and home appliances, with notable rebounds following favorable housing policies [9][10] - Short-term opportunities may arise in the consumer sector as valuations are at historical lows, with government policies promoting consumption in areas like home appliances and consumer electronics [11][12] Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - Fiscal data from January to February indicates a slowdown in public fiscal revenue growth, primarily due to a decrease in land revenue, while central government spending and social welfare expenditures have shown strong growth [13][14] - The public fiscal deficit has begun earlier in the year compared to previous years, reflecting a significant expansion in the budget deficit and a faster issuance of general government bonds [15][16] - The government is expected to provide robust countermeasures against uncertainties in foreign trade, with monetary policy adjustments anticipated to support fiscal efforts [14][15] Group 3: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The report outlines three analytical frameworks to estimate the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation, with the first framework assuming complete pass-through of tariff costs to consumer prices [5][17] - The second framework considers corporate pricing behavior, differentiating between consumer goods and intermediate goods, leading to more accurate estimations of tariff impacts on inflation [5][18] - The dynamic equilibrium model suggests that the actual impact of tariffs on inflation may be lower than initial estimates, accounting for demand changes and trade responses [19][20] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - BYD - BYD reported a 29.02% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 777.1 billion yuan, with a net profit of 40.25 billion yuan, reflecting a 34% increase [32][33] - The company achieved a 41.3% increase in vehicle sales, with significant growth in overseas markets, indicating strong demand for its products [32][33] - BYD maintained high R&D investment, totaling 54.2 billion yuan in 2024, which is expected to support future growth through new technologies and product enhancements [32][33]