转自：北京日报客户端 2025年，世界之变、时代之变、历史之变的大潮奔涌而来，国际形势犹如江船急下，让局中人应接不 暇，颇有"乱峰幽谷不知数"的感觉。 随着2025年的结束，21世纪也已走过四分之一。这一年里，百年变局在大国关系跌宕、地缘冲突激荡、 热点冲突延宕、多国政局动荡、世界经济涤荡、右翼思潮游荡、全球倡议回荡、大国外交坦荡中加速演 进。 其间，既有"东升西降"的历史大势，也有"特朗普冲击波"的短期效应；既有战后80年全球治理格局的破 旧立新，也有中美战略博弈的攻守易位…… 百年变局：入局还是出局？ 在历史的滚滚洪流中，有人躬身入局，有人黯然出局，有人兴风作浪，有人劈波斩浪。你中有我、我中 有你的地球村内，国家之间、民族之间、个体之间都命运交织、休戚与共，可谓"风声雨声枪炮声，声 声入耳；家事国事天下事，事事关己"。 在动荡变革的世界中，选择开放还是封闭、合作还是对抗、共赢还是零和，不仅考验着各国领导人的格 局和智慧，也影响着地球上每个人的切身利益。 随着特朗普卷土重来，关税战、贸易战、科技战狼烟四起，国际形势风云再起，大国关系磕磕碰碰、虚 虚实实，既较量也商量，既交手也握手。 作为全球最关键的双边关系 ...

根据《财政监测报告》采用截至2024年12月数据的"高危债务"模型测算，在极端不利情境下，到2027年全球公共债务规模可能飙升至国内生产总值的 117%。这将创下二战后的历史峰值，较基准预测值高出近20个百分点。美联储的资产负债表从2008年的9000亿美元膨胀至2024年的9万亿美元，全球负利 率债券规模一度突破18万亿美元。黄金作为"非信用背书资产"的稀缺性正在被重新定价。目前全球杠杆驱动型增长模式已经难以为继，未来可能会进入被 动去杠杆阶段，通胀（印钞）解决债务已经成为全球政策依赖路径，在此背景下，黄金的价值更加凸显。 时隔两个月后黄金再次刷新历史新高，价格已经站上4400美元，年初至今黄金涨幅已经接近70%，短期有冲击4500美元一线的可能，成为2025年表现最好 的资产之一，而本轮黄金上涨的底层逻辑是多样的，既有对信用货币无限滥发的集体抗议，也有百年变局下的未雨绸缪。 信用货币危机 现代经济运行是建立在信用货币体系之上的，政府和央行通过发行货币、扩张信贷和刺激投资来推动经济增长。然而，这种模式存在根本性的结构问题。 其中最直观的就是债务问题，主要经济体的经济增长都依赖于杠杆驱动，国家、企业、居民部门 ...

Core Insights - Shanghai is emerging as a vibrant "exhibition city," showcasing a diverse range of exhibitions across various fields, including art, culture, and technology [1][2][6] Group 1: Coffee Culture Exhibition - The "Go! Drink Coffee" exhibition at the Shanghai Revolutionary History Museum features 182 items that trace the global history of coffee, from 18th-century grinders to modern brands like Nestlé and Starbucks [2] - The exhibition includes an outdoor "coffee space" hosting the "5th Square Coffee Carnival," featuring nearly 90 stalls, marking a record high for the event [2] Group 2: Aesthetic Living Theme - The recent exhibitions in Shanghai emphasize "aesthetic living," with the SOU·SOU brand showcasing a collection that merges traditional craftsmanship with modern design [2] - The collaboration between SOU·SOU and Xiangyunsha highlights the blend of traditional and contemporary aesthetics, appealing to modern lifestyles [2] Group 3: Contemporary Art Exhibitions - The Shanghai Contemporary Art Museum is hosting Lin Tianmiao's solo exhibition, focusing on the themes of "body" and "daily objects," featuring over 40 representative works [3] - The Guangdong Art Museum's "Its Fate is New" exhibition showcases over 800 works from more than 350 artists, representing a significant milestone in Guangdong's art history [4] Group 4: AI and Modern Art - The Minsheng Modern Art Museum's "Promptoscape: International AI Art Document Exhibition" features 31 works from over 20 AI artists, exploring the potential of AI as a collaborative tool in art [5] Group 5: Historical and Cultural Exhibitions - The Dunhuang Contemporary Art Museum's upcoming exhibition "Ascending to the World" will feature artifacts spanning from the Eastern Han to the Yuan dynasty, highlighting the cultural significance of the Silk Road [6] - Several exhibitions commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War, focusing on historical figures and events that shaped modern China [7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the profound changes in international cooperation and competition, highlighting that China's development is intertwined with global prosperity, advocating for a mutually beneficial open strategy to create new advantages for development [1][2]. Group 1: Global Changes and Trends - The current world is experiencing unprecedented changes, with a shift towards a more balanced international political and economic landscape, as emerging global South countries gain influence while traditional Western powers see a decline [2]. - The economic development paradigm is undergoing deep adjustments, driven by a new wave of technological revolution, particularly in artificial intelligence and renewable energy, reshaping global economic structures [3]. - Global governance faces severe challenges, with increasing unilateralism and protectionism, necessitating a deeper engagement between global South and North countries to address governance issues [4]. Group 2: High-Level Opening Strategy - High-level opening is essential for addressing development challenges and enhancing the ability to respond to global changes, emphasizing the need for quality development through international cooperation [5][6]. - Building a technology powerhouse through high-level opening is crucial, as it fosters innovation and collaboration in science and technology, enhancing China's capacity for high-quality development [6][7]. - High-level opening is also vital for reforming and improving global governance, promoting multilateral cooperation, and adapting international rules to be more just and equitable [7][8]. Group 3: Civilizational Exchange and Global Initiatives - High-level opening accelerates civilizational exchange, enhancing the flow of cultural elements and fostering mutual learning among different civilizations, which is essential for addressing global challenges [8][9]. - The article outlines four global initiatives proposed by China, focusing on development, security, civilization, and governance, aimed at addressing pressing global issues and promoting a community with a shared future for mankind [12][13].

Core Views - The world is undergoing unprecedented changes, leading to a complex international cooperation and competition landscape, where China's development is intertwined with global prosperity [1][2] Group 1: Global Trends and Changes - The international political landscape is shifting towards a more balanced power distribution, with emerging global South countries, including China, gaining influence [2] - A new economic development paradigm is emerging, driven by technological revolutions in AI and renewable energy, reshaping global economic structures [3] - Global governance faces severe challenges due to rising unilateralism and protectionism, necessitating deeper cooperation among nations [4] Group 2: China's Strategic Response - China aims to enhance its development capabilities through high-level openness, leveraging both domestic and international markets [5][6] - The country seeks to build a strong technological foundation by promoting international cooperation in science and technology [6] - China emphasizes the importance of reforming global governance to address the challenges posed by the changing international landscape [7] Group 3: Open Strategy and Global Cooperation - High-level openness is essential for China to engage in global governance reform and foster multilateral cooperation [7][12] - The country is committed to promoting its four global initiatives, which address development, security, civilization, and governance issues [13] - China aims to expand its influence in global governance by advocating for a more just and equitable international order [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current capital market trend is supported by three core pillars: the global transformation, financial reform, and strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [2][9][11] Group 1: Understanding the Macro Logic of the Current Market - The current market trend is underpinned by three main pillars: the century-long transformation, financial reform, and strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [2] - The core contradiction of the Chinese economy lies externally, with globalization being a key factor in overcoming challenges [3][8]. Group 2: The Three Core Pillars - **Pillar One: Globalization and Economic Transformation** - China's industrial capacity expansion has been driven by industrialization, urbanization, and globalization, with China accounting for approximately 17% of the global population and 34% of industrial output [3]. - The current phase of these processes shows a slowdown in demand, leading to excess capacity [3][4]. - Embracing globalization can help alleviate supply-demand contradictions and stabilize the real estate market by expanding the customer base beyond domestic demand [5][6][7]. - **Pillar Two: Financial Reform** - Since the 20th National Congress, the capital market's pivotal role has been reinforced, with significant policy changes highlighting the importance of finance [9][10]. - The restructuring of financial institutions indicates a historical elevation of the capital market's status within the national financial system [9][10]. - **Pillar Three: Risk Appetite and U.S. Strategy** - A shift in China's strategy towards the U.S. has positively influenced investor risk appetite, with a more proactive approach since late 2024 [11][12]. - Increased transparency regarding China's industrial advancements has bolstered investor confidence in the economic outlook [12]. Group 3: Market Trend and Phases - The market is expected to undergo two phases: an initial valuation-driven phase followed by a fundamental-driven phase [14][17]. - The first phase focuses on valuation expansion, driven by the competition for global economic order, with three main lines of focus: hard power sectors, technology breakthroughs, and leading manufacturing firms expanding internationally [15][16]. - The second phase will see a shift towards fundamental improvements across various sectors, reflecting a broader market engagement [17]. Group 4: Current Market Stage Assessment - The overall valuation is reasonable, with major indices at historical median levels, indicating no widespread overvaluation [18][20]. - The market capitalization of A-shares remains below China's GDP share, suggesting low financial bubble risks [20]. - Investor sentiment is stable, with no signs of panic, and institutional holdings are diversified, reducing the risk of market crashes [22]. - There is significant potential for additional capital inflow from the bond market and foreign investments, enhancing market liquidity [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure from Washington on the EU to impose a 100% tariff on China and India for purchasing Russian oil, highlighting the EU's conflicting stance towards China and the complexities in its foreign policy [1][2]. Group 1: EU's Contradictory Mindset - The EU's contradictory mindset is evident in three areas: cognitive, economic, and geopolitical, reflecting a zero-sum game mentality among some EU members [2]. - The EU's leadership expresses a desire to resolve trade tensions through negotiation, yet simultaneously applies unilateral pressure on China while ignoring China's cooperation proposals [2]. - The EU's reliance on the U.S. for strategic direction complicates its position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to increased sanctions on Russia and blame-shifting towards China [2]. Group 2: Implications of EU's Approach - Prioritizing U.S. interests over its own may undermine the EU's diplomatic independence and credibility, particularly in the context of the Ukraine crisis [3]. - The EU's internal divisions and lack of clear representation in its China policy reflect a disconnect from public sentiment, with citizens favoring a partnership approach rather than confrontation [3][4]. - Engaging in dialogue and cooperation with China is deemed essential for the EU's security and competitiveness, especially in emerging fields like AI and green development [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Direction - The article emphasizes the lessons from World War II, suggesting that appeasement does not lead to peace or respect, urging the EU to resolve its internal conflicts and return to a comprehensive strategic partnership with China [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the connection between the current bull market and national fortunes, highlighting the rising confidence and trust in capital's ability to navigate geopolitical changes and macroeconomic cycles [1][2] - The article discusses the ongoing transformation of the industrial chain due to international and domestic economic adjustments, presenting a unique opportunity for investors to align with emerging trends [1][2] - The event featuring Dr. Liu Yuhui aims to provide insights into investment strategies that resonate with the current economic climate, encouraging participants to identify suitable investment tracks [1][9] Group 2 - The event is scheduled for August 24 in Shanghai, featuring a one-hour thematic presentation followed by an interactive Q&A session [10] - Early bird registration offers a discount, emphasizing the limited availability of seats and the urgency for interested participants to secure their spots [12] - The overall message stresses the importance of recognizing trends and selecting the right investment paths to achieve long-term stability and success [8][9]

青侨阳光医药投资 - 投资思考 上个月月报，探讨了我们认为比较重要的 2 点思考： 在本月月报里，我们想接着上月的话题，进一步展开关于时代逻辑的更具体探讨。 时代是复杂的混合载体，从不同的角度和不同的尺度，能看到不同的景象，带来不同的感受，属于典型的横看 成岭侧成峰。对长尺度大时代的理解，深远影响着青侨基金对长期投资方向和整体投资策略的选择；而对中尺 度下不同细分和侧面的行业趋势的理解，则可能会阶段性影响青侨基金在不同时期不同资产间的投研偏好。下 面是我们的一些具体思考。 1 从扩量到提质， 医药行业仍然具备超额增长的时代动能 从历史积淀来说， 医药是一个相当传统的行业。 从2000多年前的扁鹊华佗和希波克拉底，到400-500百年前成 立的片仔癀同仁堂，再到100多年前成立的辉瑞礼来雅培强生，医药行业传承深厚，历史悠长。 但从行业增长看， 医药又是妥妥的朝阳行业。 如果我们去看美德英法意澳加日韩等发达国家的历史，会发现 它们的卫生总费用年均增速， 在过去半个世纪里保持了1.2-1.4倍名义GDP增速的速度在稳健增长 ，卫生健康 支出占GDP的比重普遍从3%-5%提高到10%-12%（美国超过17%）。中国也 ...