天天喊着再次伟大，有没有伟大不知道，能知道的是政府因为没钱都关门了，而且已经超过一周，这是几十年来从来没有过的。面对37万亿美债的泰山压 顶，想通过提高关税的解决只能是杯水车薪，现在又要对华加征100%关税，看来关税战要升级了。 10月11日据俄罗斯卫星通讯社报道，当地时间11月10日，美国总统特朗普表示，他准备在现有的关税基础上对来自对华进口的商品加征100%关税。时间在 11月1日，也有可能提前。 全世界都知道的是，我们唯一的短板就是无法制造出高端芯片，不是不能造，而是没有制造的EUV光刻机,全世界唯有荷兰阿斯麦独家能生产,被老美控制禁 止出口。 但我们手里也有牌,只不过因为我们不想干涉自由贸易，所以一直没用,现在对方得寸进尺,那我们肯定要反制,反制的措施是就是制造芯片的和各种武器装备必 需的稀土资源进行出口管控。这下如同打蛇打到了七寸，因为全世界提炼好的稀土，98%是我们生产的。 被掐了脖子之后，老美开始主动让步，将征收的145%关税，暂时停止了，然后他暗中想办法解决稀土供应的问题。稀土全世界很多国家都有，不仅老美 有，乌克兰也有，巴西也有，他先是投入巨额资金，在美国本土重新开发稀土矿，由于乌克兰签署了 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [67]. Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 6.46% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.57 percentage points, ranking third among 31 industries [3][13]. - Precious metals have shown significant growth, with an 18.10% increase in the last two weeks, while energy metals and industrial metals have also performed well, increasing by 10.92% and 7.60% respectively [17][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. economic data on market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which has led to a bullish outlook for metal prices, particularly gold [6][62]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of September 11, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has increased by 54.36% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 38.77 percentage points [13]. - The precious metals sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 67.50%, while energy metals and industrial metals have increased by 49.26% and 48.53% respectively [19][20]. Price Analysis - As of September 11, 2025, LME copper is priced at $10,057 per ton, LME aluminum at $2,679 per ton, and LME nickel at $15,220 per ton [25]. - COMEX gold is priced at $3,673.40 per ounce, reflecting a $157.3 increase since the beginning of September [37]. Industry News - The report notes the release of regulations regarding rare earth mining and processing in China, indicating a tightening control over these resources, which may affect market dynamics [63]. - The report also mentions a significant collaboration between Codelco and SQM for lithium mining in Chile, which could diversify revenue sources for Codelco amid declining copper production [56]. Company Announcements - Western Gold announced a temporary shutdown of production equipment for maintenance, which is expected to last until the end of the year [60]. - Hongda Co. plans to invest 1.59 billion yuan in Duolong Mining, maintaining a 30% stake in the company [61]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Xiamen Tungsten (600549) due to their strong performance and market positioning [63][65].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Indonesia's Mineral Industry Bureau marks a significant step in the national regulation of rare earth resources, moving away from private and public access to full state control [1] Group 1: Institutional Changes - The new bureau's responsibilities are based on three strategic pillars: optimizing rare earth element extraction, enhancing protection of rare earth elements, and accelerating downstream industrialization [1] - The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will supply raw materials, while the Mineral Industry Bureau will manage downstream activities and terminal product strategies [1] Group 2: Focus Areas - Rare earth elements consist of 17 metal elements with unique optical, electrical, and magnetic properties, widely used in new energy, electronics, and aerospace industries [1] - The new bureau will focus on strategic minerals for the defense industry, including rare metals and radioactive minerals, with the aim of accelerating the application of university research in defense [1]

稀土，作为一种战略性矿产资源，近年来已成为全球贸易争端的焦点，特别是在中美两国的博弈中占据了举足轻重的位置。美国为何对中国在稀土出口方面 的管制如此敏感？答案显而易见：稀土对美国的高科技和军事产业至关重要，它成为了中国在这场贸易战中的王牌。面对中国的出口管控，美国的反应变得 愈加激烈。特朗普政府以及军工利益集团纷纷表达了他们的不满，指责中国在达成日内瓦协议后，依旧严格管控稀土的出口，甚至在其他领域做出回应，暂 停了多项高科技出口，并威胁要削减与中国的学术和文化交流。然而，这种做法并未迫使中国做出任何让步，中国方面仅作出了平静的回应，表示将多管齐 下，严防战略矿产的非法外流。 从上世纪80年代起，中国开始了稀土资源的开发，并且逐渐积累了大量的技术和产业链经验，成为了全球稀土市场的主导者。尽管中国的稀土行业曾经历过 短视的低价竞争和市场恶性内卷，但随着政策的调整和市场意识的觉醒，中国逐步采取了出口配额制，加强了对稀土资源的管控，从而有效提升了国内稀土 产品的价格。与此同时，走私和盗采稀土的现象也开始在中国的部分稀土生产地区猖獗，这不仅对环境造成了巨大压力，也让国家经济蒙受了巨大的损失。 对抗稀土走私，成为了中国稀 ...

Core Points - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, and Ministry of Natural Resources have officially released the "Interim Measures for Total Quantity Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Rare Earth Smelting Separation," effective from the date of publication [1] - The formal document includes total quantity control management for rare earth mining and smelting separation, incorporating imported ores into the control scope [1] - The identification of rare earth production enterprises will be determined by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources, which is a slight relaxation compared to the draft [1][2] - The method of issuing control indicators has shifted from "Ministry of Industry and Information Technology - Rare Earth Group - Affiliated Enterprises" to "Ministry of Industry and Information Technology - Rare Earth Production Enterprises" [2][3] - A tracking system for rare earth products is mandated, requiring enterprises to record and report product flow information monthly, enhancing management and combating illegal rare earth activities [3] Industry Impact - The inclusion of imported ores in management is expected to enhance domestic control over rare earth resources, potentially increasing profit margins in smelting and separation [3] - The reduction of non-compliant production capacity is anticipated to support price increases and facilitate consolidation towards larger groups [3] Company Performance - Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) reported a revenue of approximately 3.507 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.33%, with a net profit of 305 million yuan, up 154.81% [4] - The company benefits from the recovery in rare earth magnetic material prices, leading to improved profitability and a clear growth path in rare earth permanent magnet capacity [4]

前言 近日，美国财政部长贝森特在瑞典斯德哥尔摩的美中贸易谈判中公开透露。 美国国会正在审议一项针对购买俄罗斯石油国家的"二级制裁"法案。 还准备对这些国家征收高达100%的惩罚性关税。 此外，包括欧洲国家、北约盟友和加拿大在内的多方正考虑跟进此举。 作为全球最大的俄罗斯石油进口国，中国的立场和回应成为这场外交风波的焦点。 贝森特指出，中国强调国家主权，坚决维护自身能源进口自由，宁愿承担100%的关税也不会放弃购买俄油。 信源截图 而中国在谈判中明确表示，能源进口是中国主权行为，任何外部干涉都是不可接受的。 贝森特还提到，中国人非常重视主权，他们宁愿为此支付100%的关税。 这句话既透露了中国对能源自主权的坚定立场。 也折射出中美之间在此问题上的难以调和的矛盾。 从中国的角度看，能源安全是国家安全的核心组成部分。 过去数十年，中国经济快速增长，对能源的依赖日益加深。 俄罗斯作为地理和政治相对邻近的能源大国，成为中国保障能源供应的重要合作伙伴。 无论是经济利益还是战略布局，中国都不会轻易放弃与俄罗斯的能源合作。 尤其是在当前全球能源价格波动、供应链紧张的背景下。 中国的能源进口策略更加凸显其独立自主的特点。 美国 ...

Group 1 - The core issue of the US-China trade conflict revolves around tariffs and the strategic importance of rare earth elements, with the US seeking unfair trade advantages while China insists on equal and mutually beneficial negotiations [1][4] - The US has acknowledged its dependency on China for critical resources, particularly rare earths, which are essential for various technologies and military applications, indicating a shift in the US's previously unilateral stance [2][4] - The ongoing trade negotiations are complicated by the US's previous tariff actions, which have strained relationships with allies and limited its ability to effectively pressure China [4][6] Group 2 - The US is likely to adopt a strategy of delaying conflict while seeking to extend the "ceasefire" period, aiming to extract more concessions from China without immediate escalation [4][6] - China's control over rare earth resources provides it with significant leverage in negotiations, allowing it to respond firmly to US actions while maintaining a stance of fairness and reciprocity [4][6] - Ultimately, the balance of power in international negotiations is heavily influenced by national strength, with both countries recognizing that their respective capabilities will dictate the outcomes of their trade discussions [6]

Core Points - The European Union (EU) is expressing serious concerns regarding the shortage of rare earth magnets, which is significantly impacting European companies [1][3] - The EU is requesting China to address the export issues related to rare earth materials, emphasizing the need for cooperation despite existing tensions [1][5] - China's recent measures to control rare earth resources are increasingly seen as having important geopolitical implications, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [3][5] Group 1: EU Concerns and Requests - The EU ambassador to China, Jorge Toledo, highlighted the severe impact of rare earth shortages on European businesses and requested understanding from China [1] - The EU is seeking a resolution to the rare earth export issues, indicating a desire for cooperation while facing challenges from China's export controls [1][5] - European companies are worried about the implications of using Chinese rare earths for products that may be exported to the US, fearing potential repercussions from Chinese regulations [1][3] Group 2: China's Export Control Measures - China has implemented stricter controls on rare earth resources, including a focus on the qualifications of personnel in the rare earth sector to prevent the leakage of sensitive information [3][5] - The Chinese government has been tightening its grip on rare earth exports over the years, moving from total production limits to more detailed regulations on technology and personnel [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has approved a certain number of rare earth export applications to Europe, indicating a willingness to facilitate trade under specific conditions [7] Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The control of rare earth resources is becoming a critical geopolitical issue, especially as these materials are essential for various industries, including automotive and electronics [3][5] - The EU's approach to rare earths is seen as a balancing act between maintaining relations with China and addressing its own supply chain vulnerabilities [3][7] - The upcoming EU-China leadership meeting is expected to focus heavily on rare earth issues, reflecting the strategic importance of these materials in international relations [5][7]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has pressured Ukraine to ensure that Chinese companies are excluded from the Ukrainian rare earth resource market, particularly in post-war reconstruction projects [1] - During recent U.S.-China trade talks, rare earth resources were a significant topic, with the U.S. seeking normal exports of rare earth products from China due to dwindling inventories [1][3] - The U.S. aims to control the rare earth supply chain and prevent China from becoming too strong, while also managing Ukraine's reconstruction efforts [3] Group 2 - China has approved a certain number of rare earth product export applications, indicating a controlled release of exports rather than a blanket ban, enhancing its control over rare earth resource exports [5] - The EU is planning to impose sanctions on two small Chinese banks for allegedly assisting Russia in evading sanctions, marking a significant move against third-country financial institutions [5] - The EU has proposed a new draft of sanctions against Russia, which would be the eighteenth round of sanctions, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions [7]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China regarding rare earth resources, with China maintaining a firm stance against U.S. demands for concessions [1][5][21] - Despite previous agreements on tariffs, the U.S. continues to face challenges due to China's restrictions on rare earth minerals, which are critical for various industries, including technology and defense [2][9][14] - Trump's recent outreach to China indicates a recognition of the importance of rare earths for U.S. technological advancements, as the U.S. relies heavily on imports from China for these materials [16][19][29] Group 2 - The U.S. government is under pressure due to its dependency on Chinese rare earths, which account for 80% of its annual demand, highlighting China's dominant position in the global market [9][11][12] - Trump's attempts to negotiate with China reflect a dual strategy of seeking resources while simultaneously applying pressure, which China views as unacceptable [23][25] - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China extends beyond trade disputes to a broader geopolitical struggle for technological supremacy, with both nations vying for long-term advantages in global trade [27][29]